Archive for December, 2016

JP 2016 NCAA Football Final Rankings and Bowl Predictions

by   |  12.16.16  |  Academics, COBA Faculty, Current Students, Research, Uncategorized

by guest blogger, Dr. Ryan Jessup

Below is our final ranking dotplot for the season.  Note how Alabama ends the season way beyond the other teams, teams 2-4 are grouped together, followed by another large break after the 11th team, LSU.

bowl predictions

Although Navy’s loss to Army for the first time in more than a decade was a surprise, our rankings did not see them as a top 40 team anyway, so the surprise was rather mild.

The final network graph (below) demonstrates the inter- and intra-conference play (the lines connecting the dots) as well as the relative strengths of the teams within their conferences via the dot size.

ncaa football diagram

Lastly, below are our predicted winners and win margins for 40 of the 41 bowl games.  All of these bowls are assumed to be at neutral sites, so, for example, the Hawaii Bowl win margin does not adjust for Hawaii’s homefield advantage (a 5.25 point adjustment).  After the two national semi-finals have been played we will return to predict by how much Alabama will win.

 

Date Team One Team Two Bowl Game JP Favorite Win Margin
2016-12-17 UTSA New Mexico GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL New Mexico 0.75
2016-12-17 San Diego State Houston LAS VEGAS BOWL PRESENTED BY GEICO Houston 18.75
2016-12-17 Toledo Appalachian State RAYCOM MEDIA CAMELLIA BOWL Toledo 2.25
2016-12-17 Arkansas State UCF AUTONATION CURE BOWL UCF 0.75
2016-12-18 Louisiana Lafayette Southern Miss R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL Southern Miss 2.25
2016-12-19 Tulsa Central Michigan MIAMI BEACH BOWL Tulsa 11.75
2016-12-21 Western Kentucky Memphis BOCA RATON BOWL Western Kentucky 7.75
2016-12-22 Wyoming BYU SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL BYU 7.75
2016-12-23 Colorado State Idaho FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL Colorado State 18.75
2016-12-23 Old Dominion Eastern Michigan POPEYES BAHAMAS BOWL Eastern Michigan 3.75
2016-12-23 Navy Louisiana Tech LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL Navy 8.25
2016-12-24 Troy Ohio DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL Troy 0.75
2016-12-25 Middle Tennessee Hawaii HAWAII BOWL Middle Tennessee 8.25
2016-12-26 Mississippi State Miami (OH) ST. PETERSBURG BOWL Mississippi State 15.75
2016-12-26 Boston College Maryland QUICK LANE BOWL Maryland 3.75
2016-12-26 Vanderbilt NC State CAMPING WORLD INDEPENDENCE BOWL Vanderbilt 7.75
2016-12-27 North Texas Army ZAXBY’S HEART OF DALLAS BOWL Army 10
2016-12-27 Wake Forest Temple MILITARY BOWL PRESENTED BY NORTHROP GRUMMAN Temple 23.75
2016-12-28 Washington State Minnesota NATIONAL FUNDING HOLIDAY BOWL Washington State 5.75
2016-12-28 Baylor Boise State MOTEL 6 CACTUS BOWL Boise State 18.75
2016-12-28 Northwestern Pittsburgh NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL Northwestern 3.75
2016-12-28 Miami West Virginia RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL Miami 18.75
2016-12-29 Utah Indiana FOSTER FARMS BOWL Utah 10
2016-12-29 Kansas State Texas A&M ADVOCARE V100 TEXAS BOWL Texas A&M 18.75
2016-12-29 South Carolina South Florida BIRMINGHAM BOWL South Florida 14.75
2016-12-29 Virginia Tech Arkansas BELK BOWL Virginia Tech 18.75
2016-12-30 Colorado Oklahoma State VALERO ALAMO BOWL Colorado 27.25
2016-12-30 TCU Georgia AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL Georgia 8.25
2016-12-30 North Carolina Stanford HYUNDAI SUN BOWL Stanford 8.25
2016-12-30 Tennessee Nebraska FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL Tennessee 3.75
2016-12-30 Air Force South Alabama NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL Air Force 11.75
2016-12-31 Florida State Michigan CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL Michigan 34.25
2016-12-31 Louisville LSU BUFFALO WILD WINGS CITRUS BOWL LSU 11.75
2016-12-31 Kentucky Georgia Tech TAXSLAYER BOWL Georgia Tech 1.75
2016-12-31 Alabama Washington CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL – CFP SEMIFINAL Alabama 39.25
2017-01-01 Clemson Ohio State PLAYSTATION FIESTA BOWL – CFP SEMIFINAL Ohio State 23.75
2017-01-02 Iowa Florida OUTBACK BOWL Iowa 1.75
2017-01-02 Wisconsin Western Michigan GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL CLASSIC Wisconsin 20.75
2017-01-02 Penn State USC ROSE BOWL GAME PRES. BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL Penn State 0.75
2017-01-03 Oklahoma Auburn ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL Auburn 11.75
2017-01-10 TBD TBD CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME TBD

 

Jessup Pope College Football 2016 Rankings: After Week 14

by   |  12.07.16  |  Academics, COBA Faculty, Current Students, Research, Uncategorized

by guest blogger, Dr. Ryan Jessup

The bowls are all set as 14 weeks of the NCAA football season have passed with only one game remaining: Army vs. Navy, to be held this upcoming Saturday.

 

JP Rankings after week 14

 

Our model ends with the same team on top that we had all season, Alabama, who ESPN and 538 acknowledge as the best college football team of all time.  Ohio State and Michigan remain 2nd and 3rd, respectively, but, thanks in part to Wisconsin’s loss and Washington’s crushing of Colorado, the Huskies move into our 4th spot.  Clemson is our 8th ranked team, behind Wisconsin, Penn State, and USC, respectively.  No. 12 Western Michigan is our highest ranked team from the Group of 5 conferences and Oklahoma is our highest ranked Big 12 team, at #18.  As Don Pope pointed out last week, the Big 12 looks more like a Group of 5 conference than a Power 5 conference this year.

Next week, after the Army-Navy game, we will give our projections for all 40+ bowl games.  My grad school alma mater, Indiana, will play in the Foster Farms Bowl.  That’s how you know you’ve hit the big time, why mess around with crummy bowls like the Rose or Sugar when you can throw a pigskin sponsored by a chicken.