{"id":109,"date":"2020-02-06T16:37:34","date_gmt":"2020-02-06T22:37:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/?p=109"},"modified":"2020-02-11T16:41:10","modified_gmt":"2020-02-11T22:41:10","slug":"opinion","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/opinion\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cIt\u2019s the third quarter and Iran is 25 points behind the rest of the world,\u201d Abilene Reporter News<\/u> (May 9, 2018)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Since the NBA playoffs are ongoing, we can use a basketball analogy: \u201cIran, the ball is in your court.\u201d<\/p>\n

On Tuesday, team coach Donald Trump announced the U.S. is withdrawing from the JCPOA \u2014 the Iran nuclear weapons deal. He instructed his assistants and players to prepare for two rounds of tough economic sanctions unless Iran agrees to stop testing ballistic missiles, sponsoring terrorism and abusing human rights.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran\u2019s regional hegemonic ambitions have destabilized the Middle East, threatened our allies and pose a danger to American national security,” he said.<\/p>\n

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action has not stopped Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, only pausing the program for about 10 years. The threat of a nuclear region looms.<\/p>\n

“If I allowed this deal to stand, there would soon be a nuclear arms race in the Middle East,\u201d\u00a0 Trump said. \u201cEveryone would want their weapons ready by the time Iran had theirs.\u201d<\/p>\n

Iran now influences the politics of Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Qatar. And who can forget Syria? That civil war has made refugees of half the population due to Iran\u2019s snipers, thousands of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp soldiers, secret Quds Force and annual payments of several billion dollars to Bashar al Assad, who gasses and kills his people.\u00a0 Syria provides a platform for Iran to stockpile more than 150,000 missiles for Hezbollah to attack Israel.<\/p>\n

Iran now has a Shia Crescent around half of the Middle East, from Lebanon to Yemen, moving to threaten Egypt and Saudi Arabia and world oil.<\/p>\n

How will Team Iran respond to U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA? Will they play by the rules of international relations and international law? Or start throwing elbows or worse, as they have since the 1979 Revolution, ushered in a new sort of coach and playbook?<\/p>\n

The day after Trump\u2019s announcement, President Hassan Rouhani warned that Iran might restart its nuclear program. Traveling.<\/p>\n

Then the Iranian Parliament burned the U.S. Flag while chanting \u201cDeath to America.\u201d\u00a0 Technical foul.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, in a speech in Tehran, Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared, \u201cI say on behalf of the nation of Iran, Mr. Trump, you won\u2019t do a damn thing!\u201d\u00a0 Another technical foul.<\/p>\n

The Ayatollah further said, \u201cWait for the day when Trump is dead, his corpse is fed on by snakes and insects, but the system of the Islamic Republic will still be standing.\u201d Third technical foul.<\/p>\n

(If we were following NBA rules, the coach would be kicked out of the game for a second technical).<\/p>\n

Also on Wednesday, Yemen\u2019s Shiite Houthi rebels fired ballistic missiles at Riyadh. Foul, away from the play.<\/p>\n

Iran still holds seven Americans hostage in Evin Prison, despite North Korea\u2019s release of American citizens there. Illegal screen.<\/p>\n

On Thursday, Iran directly attacked Israel for the first time, with over 20 missiles shot from Syria.\u00a0 Flagrant 1 Foul.\u00a0 Some were shot down by Israel, some landed short. \u00a0But the deadly escalation makes it clear Iran wants to continue fortifying several dozen military bases in Syria.<\/p>\n

There are 194 teams in our league, all the countries of the world. In the words of Henry Kissinger, it is now up to Iran to decide \u201cwhether it is a nation or a cause\u201d \u2014 a normal state, or a revolutionary one, disrupting and foul-plagued.<\/p>\n

Change will not come easy\u2014the IRGC army controls more than half the economy, and the Basij police roam the streets, looking for offenses such as females not wearing head coverings.<\/p>\n

But Iran\u2019s economy is in shatters, due to ongoing massive governmental corruption and economic mismanagement.\u00a0 Iran can choose to have a functioning economy, free of sanctions and open to investment, in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons and terrorism.<\/p>\n

After returning from North Korea, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo now will work with European \u201ccoaches\u201d Macron and May, and friendly teams in the Middle East and Asia to persuade them to full-court press Iran.\u00a0 It appears the U.S. is in the bonus.<\/p>\n

Of course, the basketball analogy is not perfect in the real world. But the ayatollah and his assistants and players are on notice they must start following the rules or they will find themselves ejected.<\/p>\n

Neal Coates is chairman of the Department of Political Science and Criminal Justice at Abilene Christian University.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cEnough is enough in Iran\u201d, Abilene Reporter News<\/u> (January 7, 2018)<\/strong><\/p>\n

You have seen the good news\u2014in over 100 cities in Iran, hundreds of thousands of people have been demonstrating against the Iranian Regime over the past several days.\u00a0 The long list of complaints, years in the making, are due to great lack of freedom, massive government corruption, bureaucratic mismanagement, forty percent unemployment for young adults, and foreign policy debacles in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and elsewhere that have robbed hundreds of billions of dollars from needed public works.\u00a0 These include for transportation, education, medical facilities, refineries, and even more desalination plants.<\/p>\n

The first major protests were in 2009, when the Regime altered the results of the presidential election and ensured that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stayed in power for a second term.\u00a0 Millions protested, thousands were arrested, many were tortured in prison, and the two other rivals in the election remain to this day under house arrest and silenced.<\/p>\n

Now, as 2018 begins, is not the time for us to be quiet, as the U.S. administration was in 2009.\u00a0 Expect a bloody crackdown by the Regime\u2014that is how they took power in 1979, with tens of thousands of Iranians killed, and how the dictatorship stayed in power in 2009.\u00a0 The head of Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Court has now warned that protesters could face the death penalty for \u201cwaging war against God.\u201d\u00a0 But the Iranian people will not be stopped, and neither should those of us who love freedom.<\/p>\n

It appears the Iranian people are saying enough is enough.\u00a0 They are also upset over revelations about the upcoming national budget.\u00a0 Secret portions have been leaked, including huge financial amounts to Shiite religious institutes, and an increase of twenty percent in the billions going to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.\u00a0 This is despite the national budget ending subsidies for millions of Iranians and raising the price of gasoline.<\/p>\n

The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, blames \u201cenemies\u201d for the protests, whether internal rebels or the U.S. or Israel or Saudi Arabia or the UAE.\u00a0 He is ruthless and dependent on the martyr syndrome on which Shia Islam is based.\u00a0 But those countries did not create the spontaneous parades inside Iran.\u00a0 They are a product of the Leader\u2019s and the Regime\u2019s actions and policies.<\/p>\n

Americans and our government should condemn the Regime, continue sanctions against Iran for its terrorism, ballistic missile program, and human rights abuses, and now offer moral, communications, and other support to the people of Iran.\u00a0 There is much at stake\u2014the future relationship of our two countries, and even Middle East peace.<\/p>\n

The U.S. and other countries should declare and at the U.N. support the Iranian people\u2019s right to protest. \u00a0We should warn the Leader and IRGC against violent suppression.\u00a0 And of the hundreds currently arrested, there will certainly be abuse in jail by authorities.\u00a0 President Trump is right to say the world is watching.<\/p>\n

U.S. officials should urge Iran to stop blocking social-media sites, and ask companies like Telegram, WhatsApp, Twitter, and Instagram to not comply with Regime demands to block communication.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s use the Voice of America\u2019s Persian Service and Radio Farda to support Iranian citizens\u2019 claims. \u00a0They are valid and have been underreported for years.<\/p>\n

Congress should pass a resolution supporting the people of Iran\u2019s efforts to promote basic freedoms that lead to a freely elected, open, and democratic political system.<\/p>\n

Our government can assist embassies and human-rights groups in compiling names of those arrested, murdered, and tortured, and publicize these in Farsi-language media.<\/p>\n

The treatment of detainees should be linked to diplomacy with Iran.\u00a0 No Western diplomat should meet with an Iranian diplomat without protesters\u2019 fate first on the agenda.<\/p>\n

We should also ask Barack Obama to right the mistakes of 2009, and promote the cause of Iranian freedom through his large network of supporters who are strong believers in human rights.\u00a0 President Trump should ask former President Obama for his assistance.<\/p>\n

Regardless of what happens in the next few weeks, and remember that the Regime has survived mass demonstrations and riots before, the Iranian people now understand they have more power to debate, complain, and protest.\u00a0 They will do it again.\u00a0 And again.\u00a0 This 1979 Regime will fall someday, and something better will come.\u00a0 The Iranian people have such a long history and are industrious, proud, and smart.\u00a0 They do not want to be at odds with their neighbors or the United States.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s help them.\u00a0 What can you do?\u00a0 Post the latest news on the protests on your social media to help get the word out in Iran and other repressive countries.\u00a0 Ask your Congress member to support the Iranian people.\u00a0 Let us all speak in favor of freedom.<\/p>\n

Neal Coates is the Chair of the ACU Department of Political Science & Criminal Justice<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cHow About a New Year\u2019s Resolution Concerning Iran,\u201d Op-Ed,\u00a0Abilene Reporter News<\/u>\u00a0(January 7, 2016)<\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s that time again, to look at the weight scale and consider promises to keep after the New Year rings in.\u00a0 But as we all commit to doing better on important things in our lives, the White House is deciding to do nothing in response to Iran\u2019s threatening actions, including its violations of international sanctions for firing ballistic missiles which can carry nuclear warheads.<\/p>\n

First, in case you missed an important point late in 2015, the International Atomic Energy Agency declared in December that Iran has had a nuclear weapons program since at least 2003.<\/p>\n

Next, remember as 2016 begins that Iran will not abide by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.\u00a0 They want their hands on the $100 billion currently frozen.<\/p>\n

President Obama is committed to preventing Congress from changing the terms of the JCPOA\u2014this is for legacy purposes, as he seeks credit as the president who successfully negotiated with Iran.<\/p>\n

Obama, though, does not have a comprehensive Iran policy. \u00a0In fact, since 1979, no administration has responded well to the underlying nature of the Iranian state. \u00a0The Islamic Republic is a revolutionary regime, and to a great extent it relies upon having an external foe\u2014the Great Satan\u2014to justify its existence and hardline policies.<\/p>\n

The Administration is ignoring a U.N. expert panel report that concluded Iran violated a Security Council resolution by testing a new ballistic missile on October 10, the Emad, capable of delivering a nuclear warhead, with a range of 800 miles.\u00a0 A second launch was held on November 21.<\/p>\n

Lack of U.S. retort to the missile tests raise fears about what the hard-liners and Supreme Leader will do next, including whether they will comply with the nuclear deal.\u00a0 Twenty one Senate Democrats have sent a letter to the President to take action.\u00a0 Thirty five Republican senators have done the same, writing that the Administration should delay lifting sanctions under the JCPOA.<\/p>\n

Concerns in the Congress have grown since Iran sent more IRGC troops to Syria, a vessel was intercepted off the Oman coast in September with banned Iranian arms, the escalation of Iran\u2019s cyberespionage program, and the unfair conviction of a Washington Post reporter held by Tehran more than 500 days.<\/p>\n

These threats continue and are even intensifying with a recent serious incident in the Strait of Hormuz when an Iranian naval vessel fired rockets 1,500 yards from the American aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman and a U.S. destroyer.\u00a0 The ships, along with a French warship and other commercial craft were traveling the Strait\u2019s internationally recognized maritime traffic lanes and in Oman\u2019s territorial waters when the navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps suddenly announced a \u201clive-fire exercise.\u201d \u00a0The U.S. ships, under orders, did not respond.<\/p>\n

But the U.S. Navy has just reported these events have escalated during the past year.\u00a0 Iranian boats launched rockets on October 20, 2014, ten miles from the carrier George H. W. Bush, on this April 15 just six miles from the carrier Theodore Roosevelt, and now on December 26 less than a mile from the Truman.<\/p>\n

I hope you can keep your New Year\u2019s resolutions.\u00a0 Unfortunately, it seems the President is resolved in 2016 to do nothing to enforce existing ballistic missile sanctions against Iran, and won\u2019t respond to missiles fired closer and closer to our aircraft carriers.\u00a0 We will have to rely on Congress to hold Iran accountable.<\/p>\n

Neal Coates is professor and chair of political science at Abilene Christian University and teaches courses on international relations and the Middle East.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cSurprise!\u00a0\u00a0There Are Two Nuclear Agreements,\u201d Op-Ed,\u00a0Abilene Reporter News<\/u>\u00a0(October 27, 2015)<\/strong><\/p>\n

A hallmark of international law, throughout the centuries, is that after negotiating an agreement the document is presented to the national ratifying bodies, such as a Senate or Parliament, for final approval.\u00a0 But if one of those ratifying institutions then changes the agreement, often called a reservation, the entire process begins anew and the negotiators for the countries must meet again.\u00a0 A simple way of understanding this is that both sides have to ultimately agree on the final wording of their deal.\u00a0 Sounds simple, right?<\/p>\n

So how can there be two Iran nuclear deals?<\/p>\n

It was welcome news just a few days ago when we learned Iran\u2019s Parliament had ratified the nuclear agreement hammered out in July by the diplomats from Iran and the United States, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany.\u00a0 The approval process here in the U.S. took 60 days and was a highly publicized and contentious affair, but the Congress ultimately confirmed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in September.<\/p>\n

And we have also just learned that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has endorsed the nuclear deal.\u00a0 However, the Supreme Leader warned that all sanctions must be lifted or Iran would consider the agreement broken and would walk away.\u00a0 The JCPOA requires sanctions be suspended but can snap them back into place if Iran violates the agreement.\u00a0 Was the Ayatollah just declaring his hopes despite the language of the JCPOA and to satisfy other hardline members of the regime?<\/p>\n

According to the Obama Administration and most media, Iran\u2019s Parliament (the Majlis) has now endorsed the nuclear deal.\u00a0 But these reports were inaccurate.\u00a0 Instead, on October 13 the Majlis approved its own quite different 1,000 page document.\u00a0 The Middle East Media Research Institute examined the bill and reports that it requires sanctions be cancelled and not re-imposed.\u00a0 In addition, this new document requests the Iranian government to expand its centrifuge program over two years so that enriched-uranium output will reach 190,000 SWUs (separate work units).\u00a0 This is at least 25 times the current output of Iran\u2019s 9,000 centrifuges, which are supposed to drop under the JCPOA to only 5,060 centrifuges for 10 years.<\/p>\n

Khamenei\u2019s announcement on October 21 endorsed the Parliament\u2019s bill.\u00a0 This is a classic bait-and-switch.\u00a0 It doesn\u2019t take a rocket scientist to know the JCPOA is not yet in effect\u2014Iran hasn\u2019t even approved it, and has a different version of reality.\u00a0 Will the U.S. government continue the fiction that a binding nuclear deal with Iran actually exists?\u00a0 Will we ever hold the Ayatollah and Iran accountable?<\/p>\n

No wonder that Congress is again forced to speak out on our foreign policy.\u00a0 Eleven Senate Democrats, most of whom voted for the JCPOA, have just asked the Administration to respond to Iran\u2019s recent test of a ballistic missile which can carry a nuclear weapon and violates U.N. sanctions set against Iran in 2010.\u00a0 The senators wrote in their letter that the ability to enforce the nuclear deal \u201cmust be fortified by a zero-tolerance policy to respond to violations of the agreement and of applicable UN resolutions.\u201d\u00a0 There are also calls in the Senate to extend the Iran Sanctions Act, set to expire in 2016.<\/p>\n

Buckle your seat belts, it is going to be a bumpy ride trying to implement an agreement which hasn\u2019t been concluded under international law, while Iran continues its nuclear program and missile tests.<\/p>\n

Neal Coates is professor and chair of political science at Abilene Christian University and teaches courses on international relations and the Middle East.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cAll for the Iranian Deal \u2026 If You\u2019re Iranian,\u201d Op-Ed,\u00a0Abilene Reporter News<\/u>\u00a0(August 9, 2015)<\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s now up to Congress under the Iran Review Act to approve or issue a veto-proof disapproval of President Obama\u2019s nuclear agreement with Iran by mid-September.\u00a0 Here\u2019s why I\u2019m for the agreement.<\/p>\n

It is not persuasive that 48% of Americans disapprove of the deal while 38% approve, or that 54% are not too or at all confident in the U.S. and international agencies\u2019 ability to monitor Iran\u2019s compliance.<\/p>\n

After all, Iran has always said its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes, such as electricity generation and medical isotopes.\u00a0 So ignore the regime\u2019s insistence on keeping massive uranium and plutonium sites, appearing engineered and protected for a weapons program.<\/p>\n

Iran needs help rebuilding its tattered economy.\u00a0 The U.S., E.U., and U.N. will suspend sanctions and release $100 billion from frozen accounts toward highways, schools, water lines, and hospitals.\u00a0 We can be sure Iran, long accused as the leading terrorism sponsor, would never use billions of restricted monies for more bad deeds.<\/p>\n

Instead, there will be a robust and verifiable inspections program.\u00a0 I don\u2019t mind the U.S. gave up insistence on \u201canytime, anywhere\u201d inspections.\u00a0 Instead, Iran can deny inspectors access to any undeclared nuclear site.\u00a0 Denials will be adjudicated by a committee and several other bodies, on all of which Iran sits.\u00a0 Even if inspectors prevail, the approval process can take 24 days.\u00a0 I have no fear of scrubbing at suspected sites\u2014managed access will work.<\/p>\n

Likewise, there is a separate and confidential side agreement (it doesn\u2019t matter the actual document can\u2019t be seen by Congress) between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency for inspections at the Parchin base where Iran is alleged to have carried out prohibited work on high explosives for nuclear weapons.\u00a0 It is only fair, since it is sovereign territory, that Iran can be responsible for taking samples.<\/p>\n

We must believe Iran will now live up to its agreements.\u00a0 Ignore statements such as from Major General Jafari, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, that the U.N. resolution for the pact was unacceptable and \u201cclearly in contradiction\u201d of Iran\u2019s red lines.<\/p>\n

If Iran is caught violating the agreement, the U.S. and U.N. will \u201csnapback\u201d the sanctions.\u00a0 I\u2019m not concerned the very language of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in Paragraphs 26 and 37, appears to contradict Obama\u2019s claims that sanctions will be re-imposed.\u00a0 \u201cIran has stated that if sanctions are reinstated in whole or in part, Iran will treat that as grounds to cease performing its commitments under this JCPOA in whole or in part.\u201d\u00a0 Certainly it can\u2019t be read that if sanctions return that Iran can continue its nuclear program unabated and the deal is off\u2014there must be some other explanation for this provision inserted by Iran\u2019s skillful negotiating team.\u00a0 Perhaps their goal was to persuade Congress the only alternative to approving the agreement was war.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t pay attention after the agreement ends that Iran can produce unlimited nuclear material.\u00a0 In a decade, it could be weeks from a bomb.\u00a0 The U.S. says the regime can become a trusted member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty\u2014prohibited from developing weapons and subject to IAEA inspection.\u00a0 Let\u2019s trust Iran will not simply withdraw from the treaty, as North Korea in 2003.\u00a0 And I\u2019m certainly not worried other Middle East countries will begin nuclear programs to offset Iran\u2019s.<\/p>\n

Ignore that the deal does not release four American hostages held by Iran, along with the millions of damages due to the 1979 Crisis diplomats or the hundreds of millions due to U.S. victims of terror as finalized in U.S. courts.<\/p>\n

Now to the charges \u201cDeath to America\u201d represent Iran\u2019s ultimate goal.\u00a0 Supreme Leader Khamenei appeared after the agreement was announced to say Iran would continue supporting groups in Palestine, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain, and Yemen, and the chants again were heard.\u00a0 But this is for show and represents the regime\u2019s culture.\u00a0 It does not matter media outlets did not mention that at the podium he held a rifle so its barrel was directly under his speech notes.\u00a0 He is committed to the agreement despite saying, \u201cOur policy toward the arrogant U.S. government won\u2019t change at all.\u00a0 We have nothing to talk to America about with regard to global and regional issues.\u201d<\/p>\n

In conclusion, part of the study of American foreign policy centers on how policy makers reach rational decisions that are in the best interests of national security, including how leaders act within cognitive limits and as emotional beings.\u00a0 Wishful thinking is part of this line of study, and U.S. decision makers have sometimes been found to believe whatever they have decided will work, especially if their worldview strongly drives them.<\/p>\n

I hope Barack Obama is not ignoring anything regarding the Iran agreement.<\/p>\n

Neal Coates is professor and chair of political science at Abilene Christian University and teaches courses on international relations and the Middle East.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cIran Not Conceding Much Thus Far,\u201d Op-Ed,\u00a0Abilene Reporter News<\/u>\u00a0(June 26, 2015)<\/strong><\/p>\n

We now know half the story.\u00a0 Yesterday, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Obamacare insurance exchanges, giving the President a large victory in his signature domestic policy. \u00a0And in a few days we will most likely see the written document describing Barack Obama\u2019s attempts at changing Iran and the Middle East.<\/p>\n

Obama\u2019s foreign policy legacy will be defined according to the final agreement with Iran regarding its nuclear program.\u00a0 He is dealing directly (through negotiators) with the Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.\u00a0 The agreement, based on a framework announced in April, is supposed to have a deadline of June 30 and includes Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany.\u00a0 The P5+1 are trying to complete a deal requiring Iran to limit its nuclear activities to civilian purposes in exchange for relief from heavy economic sanctions.<\/p>\n

That deadline is in great danger of being passed, and the terms of any agreement are tilting toward Iran.<\/p>\n

Just this past weekend, with some members calling, \u2018\u2018Death to America,\u2019\u2019 Iran\u2019s Parliament overwhelmingly voted to bar access to military sites, scientists, and documents.\u00a0 Second, Parliament required the complete lifting of all U.S., U.N., and E.U. economic sanctions once a nuclear accord is completed.\u00a0 They also limited future considerations of the agreement to Iran\u2019s National Security Council, headed by Khamenei.\u00a0 Any pretense of the public having a say through their elected body is surrendered.<\/p>\n

This seems the final blow to those hoping for flexibility from Iran.\u00a0 According to multiple reports, the draft agreement does not limit ballistic missile work, allows centrifuge R&D, does not require answers to the IAEA\u2019s possible military dimension questions (crucial to knowing if Iran is really a year from a bomb), and does not provide strict and verifiable monitoring of uranium enrichment.\u00a0 In short, Iran will still have a nuclear program that is not peaceful.<\/p>\n

Western negotiators describe the draft as patches of text with dozens of blank spaces due to Iran\u2019s stubbornness on about 10 main elements.\u00a0 The diplomats say Iran and the six powers are far apart on all major issues and must extend the talks beyond June 30.\u00a0 Iran is trying to avoid commitments, wanting the U.S. to give more and more.\u00a0 Senator Bob Corker, chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, wrote to President Obama this week that the U.S. should abandon the talks instead of backing off its original demand Iran submit to inspections of nuclear sites at any time.<\/p>\n

Further evidence of Iran intransigence was provided last week in the State Department\u2019s annual terrorism report.\u00a0 Iran continued its \u201cterrorist-related\u201d activity in 2014 and maintained its huge military support to Syria.\u00a0 Iran also refuses to identify or produce a number of senior Al Qaeda members it is protecting.\u00a0 Instead, from Lebanon to Syria to Iraq to Bahrain to Yemen, Iran sends weapons and soldiers and funding, pressuring Sunni monarchies and democratic Israel.\u00a0 In Iraq, Iran\u2019s sectarian militias threaten to split the country into three as the Shiite forces attack the Islamic State but also use some of the same brutal tactics as ISIS.\u00a0 In essence, the election of President Hassan Rouhani nor the process of negotiating an agreement has produced moderation by the Supreme Leader, who has his own legacy to pursue.\u00a0 The U.S. has made few public protestations and backed down from Assad\u2019s use of chemical weapons against Syrians.\u00a0 And without U.S. opposition, Iran has executed on the average one person every two hours during June.<\/p>\n

Obamacare is part of the law of the land until Congress or the next president acts.\u00a0 Now, in the next several days, Barack Obama still has time to ensure the nuclear agreement is a good deal and not let Iran move toward nuclear weapons and regional domination of the Middle East.\u00a0 This is important when dealing with what some claim is a messianic apocalyptic cult that uses terror and criminal activities.<\/p>\n

But if the President completes this particular legacy deal with the Leader, there will be time for us all to weigh in and call for sanctions to continue and even threaten other actions until Iran stops its nuclear weapons program.\u00a0 The U.S. Congress recently passed its own law, reluctantly signed by Obama, allowing that if Congress receives an agreement by July 9, it has 30 days to review it before the President could suspend sanctions.\u00a0 Postponement beyond that increases review to 60 days.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s all speak loud and long against the agreement between Obama and Khamenei.<\/p>\n

Neal Coates is professor and chair of political science at Abilene Christian University and teaches courses on international relations and the Middle East.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cGood Deal or Bad Deal?,\u201d Op-Ed,\u00a0Abilene Reporter News<\/u>\u00a0(April 4, 2015)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Readers are aware that op-eds are penned a couple of days before publication.\u00a0 As I wrote this article on Thursday, after learning a few hours earlier of the new agreement between Iran and the U.S. (and the rest of the P5+1) to limit Tehran\u2019s nuclear program, the question in everyone\u2019s minds was \u201cis it a good deal?\u201d\u00a0 Will the agreement ensure it would take Iran a year to produce enough material for a weapon?\u00a0 Will Iran allow inspections anywhere and anytime?<\/p>\n

One way to begin to determine if Iran means what it says is to ask whether there are early signs of goodwill.\u00a0 We learned President Obama\u2019s comments about the agreement were carried on live television in Iran (with translation).\u00a0 Of more import, we may all know the answer by Sunday\u2019s edition of the Reporter News, but not because the terms of the agreement have been released and thoroughly examined.\u00a0 It will be because of what happened at the University of Tehran on Friday.<\/p>\n

The political framework\u2019s terms were more specific than expected.\u00a0 Iran\u2019s centrifuges for uranium at Natanz will be halved to 5,000, the Fordo underground enrichment facility is to be converted to nuclear research and producing medical isotopes, and the Arak reactor reconfigured to not make enough fuel for a bomb.\u00a0 In return, the U.S. and E.U. will begin to lift sanctions after a final agreement is signed in June.<\/p>\n

One aspect of the agreement is controversial, that it \u201csunsets\u201d after 10 years.\u00a0 Iran will be free to use reactors to produce as much nuclear material as it wants during the term, and with a stockpile of enriched uranium it could be weeks from having a bomb.\u00a0 U.S. officials say Iran can work to rejoin the international community as a more trusted member of the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, under which the country will be prohibited from developing weapons and subject to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency.\u00a0 But Iran may simply withdraw from the treaty, as North Korea in 2003.<\/p>\n

Will this turn out to be a good deal, and with Iran not backing out?\u00a0 Let us consider and watch just one person in the Iranian government.\u00a0 The face of the negotiations for Iran has been Foreign Minister Zarif, backed by public statements and even tweets by President Rouhani.\u00a0 But they are not the power in Iran, and did not authorize the Thursday announcement.\u00a0 The P5+1 states were negotiating through the Iranian diplomatic team directly with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who set the red lines which his negotiators could not cross.\u00a0 Even until the last day of the negotiations, and the three days of extensions, did anyone really know what the Ayatollah would decide.<\/p>\n

Khamenei was a leading member of the clerics who ousted the Shah, started the Islamic Revolution, and broke relations with the U.S.\u00a0 He became Supreme Leader in 1989 after the Islamic Republic\u2019s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, died, and has not left Iran since.\u00a0 Khamenei is commander-in-chief and chief of state, appointed for life by the Assembly of Experts.\u00a0 He controls every major decision directly or through loyalists and institutions, including the powerful Revolutionary Guard, the judiciary, and intelligence services.\u00a0 The Supreme Leader is sworn to the survival of the 1979 Revolution, and a key pillar of the Regime\u2019s strategy has been strong anti-American language and policies, and even the use of terror.<\/p>\n

Perhaps Khamenei will keep his 10-year agreement with the West to maintain his title as the world\u2019s richest man.\u00a0 He controls Setad, worth more than $95 billion, a business juggernaut with stakes throughout the Iranian industry.\u00a0 Setad was created to assist war veterans and widows but has morphed into the systematic seizure of thousands of properties belonging to religious minorities like Bahai and Iranians living abroad.\u00a0 Threats by Congress to impose harsher sanctions against Iran, along with the drop in oil prices, may now have convinced Khamenei that the cost of pursuing nuclear weapons is too expensive.<\/p>\n

So what happened two days ago?\u00a0 Will this deal really be good?\u00a0 Every week across Iran, the major event of Friday Prayers is held, and the most important of these gatherings is at the University of Tehran.\u00a0 Often, and certainly on major occasions, the Ayatollah himself delivers the lesson.\u00a0 And since 1979, during Prayers there is often heard the chant \u201cDeath to America.\u201d\u00a0 So check the news.\u00a0 Did the Ayatollah speak Friday?\u00a0 Were the attendees led to chant?\u00a0 The world will know very soon whether the Ayatollah will begin to change his policies, and if the Regime and its worshippers will follow.\u00a0 Can they begin to chant \u201cDeal with America\u201d?<\/p>\n

Neal Coates is professor and chair of political science at Abilene Christian University and teaches courses on international relations and the Middle East.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cMideast Perils Should Eclipse Protocol Concerns,\u201d Op-Ed,\u00a0Waco Tribune-Herald<\/u>\u00a0(March 3, 2015)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Where will you be in ten years?\u00a0 Where will America be?\u00a0 What about the Middle East?\u00a0 One thing is becoming increasingly certain.\u00a0 By the year 2025, Iran will most likely have nuclear weapons due to the implicit approval of the U.S. government in 2015.\u00a0 And during the next decade, multiple countries in the Middle East will be swept up in a dangerous nuclear arms race.<\/p>\n

For a number of months now, the other permanent members of the UN Security Council\u2014United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China\u2014along with Germany have allowed the U.S. to take the lead in negotiations with Iran over its suspected nuclear weapons program. \u00a0The talks will close March 31 after a decade.\u00a0 U.S. officials have told various media about the status of the issues under consideration, including that thousands of uranium centrifuges will remain spinning and work will continue at the Arak plutonium reactor as the tough economic sanctions are relaxed in phases, as long as Iran doesn\u2019t take final steps to producing weapons.\u00a0 Iran insists its nuclear power is only for electricity and cancer treatment.<\/p>\n

The AP and Politico, however, have now carried the startling news that the final agreement will include a \u201csunset\u201d provision.\u00a0 This means that despite whatever restrictions are set by the U.S. and the other P5+1 states, the prohibition against weapons will terminate in as short as ten years when the deal ends.<\/p>\n

This is a surprise to Congress.\u00a0 And greatly concerns Israel and our Arab allies in the Gulf.<\/p>\n

After the expiration of any deal, Iran will be free to use its reactors to produce nuclear weapons.\u00a0 With a stockpile of enriched uranium or plutonium, this long-standing goal would be weeks away.<\/p>\n

U.S. officials defend a sunset and say Iran can work to rejoin the international community as a more trusted member of the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and that Iran is prohibited by the treaty from developing weapons.\u00a0\u00a0After all, Iran is a long-term member of the treaty since the Shah joined in 1970, and the Ayatollah claims to honor it. \u00a0But there are three problems.\u00a0 First, Iran may try to fool International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors during or after an agreement.\u00a0 Second, Iran is likely to argue that the permanent members of the UN Security Council who are also NPT members can have weapons, so why can\u2019t Iran?\u00a0 Third, and much more likely, Iran would simply withdraw from the treaty, as North Korea in 2003.\u00a0 We\u2019ve seen what happened there.<\/p>\n

It is vitally important to also realize that the proposed Iranian deal would undermine the NPT, leading to additional dangers in the Middle East.\u00a0 Very quickly Saudi Arabia would buy nuclear weapons, and the UAE and Egypt and Turkey and Kuwait may develop their own.\u00a0 Any agreement with a sunset is a bad deal.<\/p>\n

We cannot forget that Iran is the leading sponsor of terrorism in the world.\u00a0 Since 1979 when the Embassy hostages were taken in Tehran, the U.S. has been attacked hundreds of times.\u00a0 Thousands have been killed.\u00a0 Four U.S. hostages are now held, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard conducts naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz against a model U.S. aircraft carrier, cyberwarfare is now regularly used against our government and some major businesses, and Iran continues its ICBM program.\u00a0 And a Shiite Arc of influence now runs from Lebanon to Syria to Iraq to Yemen.<\/p>\n

Current U.S. policy has entirely flipped from its historical siding with Israel and the Gulf states against Iran.\u00a0 Now the Administration is negotiating with the Grand Ayatollah to allow an industrial nuclear program for the next ten years, but criticizes the Prime Minister of Israel for addressing Congress about the threat of Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions.\u00a0 We must instead insist that sanctions not be lifted and even be strengthened.\u00a0 Iran must give up its nuclear program.<\/p>\n

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will soon take up legislation giving the Senate power to review any nuclear agreement.\u00a0 President Obama is not intending to sign a treaty with Supreme Leader Khamenei, which would require Senate approval\u2014he wants to use executive action or a national security waiver.\u00a0 But if this Congress won\u2019t take action to correct the White House, we must look for a next president who will reject the deal with Iran, complete with its sunset provision.<\/p>\n

And when you think about it, doesn\u2019t it seem odd that our definitions have changed?\u00a0 The U.S. used to think of a \u201csanction\u201d as an economic penalty against Iran for its nuclear program, a penalty for disobedience of the NPT.\u00a0 Now it seems like we\u2019ve moved to that other meaning of the word, to authorize, approve, allow, to ratify or confirm.<\/p>\n

Where will we all be in ten years?\u00a0 It depends on what the U.S. does today.<\/p>\n

Neal Coates is professor and chair of political science at Abilene Christian University and teaches courses on international relations and the Middle East.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cIt\u2019s the third quarter and Iran is 25 points behind the rest of the world,\u201d Abilene Reporter News (May 9, 2018) Since the NBA playoffs are ongoing, we can use a basketball analogy: \u201cIran, the ball is in your court.\u201d On Tuesday, team coach Donald Trump announced the U.S. is withdrawing from the JCPOA \u2014 … <\/p>\n

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