{"id":1751,"date":"2020-09-30T15:59:01","date_gmt":"2020-09-30T20:59:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/?p=1751"},"modified":"2020-10-11T16:16:19","modified_gmt":"2020-10-11T21:16:19","slug":"1751","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/2020\/09\/30\/1751\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

Every once in awhile I\u2019ll mention the historical four regions in the Middle East who dominate over the centuries\u2014Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran.\u00a0 As Iran considers if it will change its policies practiced since 1979, it may or may not have that long-range thinking in mind, but instead the current.\u00a0 For example, we are reminded that \u201cHistorical enmity between the Ottomans and the Persians, and rivalry for control in various hot spots across the region, make it difficult for Turkey and Iran to create a lasting partnership.\u201d\u00a0 See \u201cAnalysis:\u00a0 Netanyahu and Erdogan in Unlikely Alliance Against Iran in Nagorno-Karabakh?,\u201d<\/a> Anshel Pfeffer, Haaretz, September 30, 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201cUN nuclear watchdog inspects second Iran site,\u201d<\/a> Al Jazeera, September 30, 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran\u2019s regime secluded witness to brutal torture of champion wrestler,\u201d<\/a> Benjamin Weinthal, Jerusalem Post, September 30, 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran Rejects UAE Claims, Reasserts Sovereignty over Trio Persian Gulf Islands,\u201d<\/a> IFP, September 30, 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201cTwitter removed 130 accounts linked to Iran during first US presidential debate,\u201d<\/a> Steven Musil, CNET, September 30, 2020.<\/p>\n

It is rare to get numbers, even ballpark numbers, out of Iran\u2019s government.\u00a0 Here is one of those times.\u00a0 Iran says it spent $19.6 billion on the 1980-1988 War with Iraq.\u00a0 (But the second ranking IRGC commander in the IRGC said those billions were insignificant compared to what Iran had gained financially in the region.)\u00a0 As much as $30 billion just on its involvement in Syria backing up Assad since 2011.\u00a0 The State Department reported in 2018 that the Regime had by then spent “$16 billion propping up the Assad regime and supporting its other partners and proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen since 2012.”\u00a0 \u201cThe report also said Iran funds Hizballah to the tune of $700 million annually and gives a further $100 million a year to Palestinian groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad.\u201d\u00a0 See \u201cRevolutionary Guards Commander Gives Rare Estimate Of Money Iran Spent On Proxies, Military Aid In Region,\u201d<\/a> Golnaz Esfandiari, RFE\/RL, September 30, 2020.<\/p>\n

Iran officially has a superpower in its corner, another reason it won\u2019t easily change its pattern of behavior.\u00a0 \u201cWith the 25-year deal with China\u00a0now moving ahead at pace, Iran has a buyer for all of the crude oil it can produce, albeit at discounted level, so Tehran is pushing oil field development across the board.\u201d\u00a0 See \u201cChina Is Ready To Give Iran\u2019s Oil Industry A Major Boost,\u201d<\/a> Simon Watkins, OilPrice.com, September 30, 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Islamic Republic of Iran seeks friendly and brotherly relations with Tajikistan based on mutual respect, but the continuation of such behavior by the Tajik government is against the rules of friendly relations and the Tajik government must be aware of the consequences of such behavior,\u201d the ministry was quoted as saying by Mehr news agency.\u201d\u00a0 That term, \u201cmutual respect,\u201d is often used by Iran\u2019s government in these contexts, to say they aren\u2019t getting what they insist upon.\u00a0 See \u201cTajikistan revives on-off dispute with Iran,\u201d<\/a> Eurasia Net, September 30, 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat\u2019s Iran\u2019s role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan clash?,\u201d<\/a> Murat Sofuoglu, TRT World, September 30, 2020.\u00a0\u00a0A good article on this subject.\u00a0 \u201cIncreasing Turkish nationalism [among the Azeri Turks] in Iran has been seen as a serious political problem by Iran. Connections and relations between the country\u2019s north [where a sizable Azeri Turkish population lives] and Azerbaijan have been an important factor in Tehran\u2019s political problems with Azerbaijan. Some Azeris believe that Iran\u2019s Turkic-origin population, which includes Turkmen, Qashgais and other Turkish-speaking groups, might amount to nearly 40 percent. Many Azeris call Iran\u2019s north as southern Azerbaijan, where nearly 20 million Azeris live according to different estimates. Some Azeri nationalists and intellectuals have long defined both northern and southern parts as culturally and socially identical, arguing that they should be joined under a political union. \u201cIn Iran, due to the enormous Turkish population, there has historically been a political fear that two Azerbaijans, Baku [the capital of northern Azerbaijan] and Tabriz [the capital of southern Azerbaijan] might join at some point,\u201d says Esref Yalinkilicli, a Moscow-based Eurasia political analyst. The political argument of Greater Azerbaijan has long been a threat for the Iranian establishment, which has used its support of Armenia as a counter-measure to minimise Azeri aspirations in Iran and across the region, says Yalinkilicli. \u201cIran\u2019s traditional Armenia policy has long been a balancing act against both Azerbaijan and Turkey across southern Caucasia. As a result, behind-the-scenes, Iran backs Armenia,\u201d Yalinkilicli tells TRT World. While Iran has a Shia majority and Azeris are overwhelmingly Shia, Azeris speak a Turkish dialect, which is very close to Turkey\u2019s Turkish, and have established close connections with Ankara since the collapse of the communist Soviet Union.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Every once in awhile I\u2019ll mention the historical four regions in the Middle East who dominate over the centuries\u2014Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran.\u00a0 As Iran considers if it will change its policies practiced since 1979, it may or may not have that long-range thinking in mind, but instead the current.\u00a0 For example, we are reminded … <\/p>\n

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