{"id":2311,"date":"2020-12-27T13:12:09","date_gmt":"2020-12-27T19:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/?p=2311"},"modified":"2020-12-29T18:11:35","modified_gmt":"2020-12-30T00:11:35","slug":"2311","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/2020\/12\/27\/2311\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

Watch to see in following days if anything becomes public about Iran cutting the gas to Iraq because of the PM\u2019s tough stance on Iranian militias attacking the U.S. embassy, not because Iraq couldn\u2019t pay its bills.\u00a0 See today\u2019s story at \u201cIraq at risk of power shortages after Iran slashes gas supply\u2013Iraq ministry,\u201d<\/a> Reuters, December 27, 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201cKurdish political prisoner sentenced to death for second time in Iran,\u201d<\/a> Dilan Sirwan, Rudaw, December 27, 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201c\u201cA woman could become pregnant from the time her ovaries are active until a time that it is not active \u2026 that does not mean that in every woman it is from the age of 10 to the age to 54\u2026 some become active at age 12 and others at 13,\u201d Dr Mohammad Esmail Akbari told Iranian TV on Friday. \u201cThis is how God created them \u2013 the moment those signs emerge, she becomes a woman.\u201d \u2026 \u201cIran has ratified the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child since 1994, which considers any person under the age of 18 to be a child. Despite this, boys and girls under the age of 18 continue to be married off.\u201d\u00a0 See \u201cTehran\u2019s inaction on child marriage in Iran sees thousands of kids robbed of youth,\u201d<\/a> Rudaw, December 27, 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran reports lowest daily deaths from coronavirus in more than three months,\u201d<\/a> Reuters, December 27, 2020.<\/p>\n

This is why we have FATF, to prevent the misuse of virtual assets for money laundering and terrorist financing.\u00a0 \u201cIran, Syria to launch joint bank to facilitate bilateral trade ties,\u201d<\/a> Business Standard, December 27, 2020.<\/p>\n

What I\u2019ve argued since 2015.\u00a0 \u201cAmong the major flaws contained within the JCPOA are the sunset clauses, which have granted Iran an internationally recognized path to nuclear weapons.\u201d\u00a0 See \u201cWhy the US shouldn\u2019t reenter Iran deal \u2013 opinion,\u201d Andrew Lovy, op-ed, Jerusalem Post, December 27, 2020.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cAmong the major flaws contained within the JCPOA are the sunset clauses, which have granted Iran an internationally recognized path to nuclear weapons. Under the agreement\u2019s sunset clauses, key restrictions on Iran\u2019s nuclear program expire. For instance, in October 2023, the proscription on manufacturing advanced centrifuges is lifted, which will allow Iran to build centrifuges that enrich uranium at a faster pace than the ones currently in operation. Beginning in 2026, Iran will be allowed to begin operating these advanced centrifuges. Likewise, Iran will no longer be limited to 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges that it currently uses for enriching uranium and will be able to operate as many of these centrifuges as it wishes. Iran having more centrifuges and ones that are more advanced will only shorten its breakout time to acquiring nuclear weapons. Furthermore, all of the limitations on performing research and development on centrifuges are terminated. By 2030, restrictions such as reprocessing spent fuel, which can be expended for nuclear weapons, are retracted. Of great consequence, by January 2031, the constraints placed on the amount of uranium Iran can enrich expire. Along with this, the JCPOA\u2019s 300-kilogram limitation on Iran\u2019s enriched uranium stockpile will end, enabling the country to enrich uranium at a level greater than the currently permitted 3.67% concentration of uranium-235. This is significant because once these restrictions on enrichment levels and production expire, Iran can, without any restraints, enrich limitless amounts of uranium to levels required for a nuclear weapon. Additionally, the restrictions placed on heavy water reactors will be terminated, which would allow Iran to build new heavy-water reactors that could yield enough plutonium to power numerous nuclear weapons. Another problem with the JCPOA is that the inspections process is very weak. Contrary to proponents of the deal, the JCPOA does not subject Iran to \u201canytime\/anywhere\u201d inspections. Under the agreement, Iran has 14 days to determine whether to comply with a request from the IAEA to inspect a facility where suspected prohibited nuclear activity transpired. If Iran objects, the issue would be deferred to an eight-member commission made up of the P5+1 and a European Union Representative. Iran sits on the commission. A majority of the commission\u2019s members have to decide whether access should be permitted. If the commission decides against Iran, the Islamic Republic would be given three days to provide an inspection. This would provide Iran 24 days to conceal, remove or destroy evidence of any illicit nuclear activity. ALTHOUGH 24 days might not be enough time for the Iranians to erase a large-scale facility, David Albright, a former weapons inspector in Iraq, said, \u201cif it is on a small scale, they may be able to clear it out in 24 days.\u201d The smaller-scale activities that Mr. Albright referred to include experiments that involve triggering a nuclear weapon, or constructing a small plant to produce centrifuges. Alarmingly, Iran\u2019s military sites are off-limits under the JCPOA, enabling Iran to conduct critical activities in order to produce a nuclear weapon. An additional flaw in the JCPOA is that ballistic missiles aren\u2019t explicitly covered. Instead, ballistic missiles are addressed in UN Security Council Resolution 2231. The language of this resolution is much weaker than the six previous UNSC resolutions on Iran\u2019s ballistic missiles, as it only \u201ccalls upon\u201d Iran not to engage in any activity regarding ballistic missiles that are designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons. Previous resolutions mandated that Iran \u201cshall not undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.\u201d While Iran claims its missiles aren\u2019t designed to deliver a nuclear weapon, eight of its 13 ballistic missile systems are able to deliver a 500kg. payload to a distance of 300 km. or more, which meets the international standard set by the Missile Technology Control Regime regarding the nuclear capability of missiles. Since the signing of the JCPOA, Iran has violated UNSC 2231 by testing more than 30 nuclear-capable missiles. Given that Iran doesn\u2019t have a modern air force, the country would likely use its ballistic missiles to deliver a nuclear weapon against other countries. A correspondingly troubling aspect of the JCPOA is that it provides sanctions relief for Iran and doesn\u2019t tackle the country\u2019s sponsorship of terrorism. Prior to President Trump withdrawing from the JCPOA, Iran received billions in frozen assets from sanctions relief. The influx of cash into Iran only increased its aggressive actions, given that it could provide more funds to its terrorist proxies.\u00a0Iran was also able to increase its military budget from 2016-18 by more than 30%. Conversely, after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and imposed sanctions, Iran slashed its military budget by almost a quarter in 2019. Similarly, Iran\u2019s proxies have been deprived of cash needed to fund their operations.\u00a0If the US signs onto the deal and removes sanctions, terrorism across the region and world will increase, as Iran will have the ability to adequately fund its proxies. Moreover, with the influx of cash, Iran would be able to purchase new conventional weapons since the UN arms embargo on it was lifted in October 2020.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Watch to see in following days if anything becomes public about Iran cutting the gas to Iraq because of the PM\u2019s tough stance on Iranian militias attacking the U.S. embassy, not because Iraq couldn\u2019t pay its bills.\u00a0 See today\u2019s story at \u201cIraq at risk of power shortages after Iran slashes gas supply\u2013Iraq ministry,\u201d Reuters, December … <\/p>\n

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