{"id":2539,"date":"2021-02-03T08:04:39","date_gmt":"2021-02-03T14:04:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/?p=2539"},"modified":"2021-02-07T20:56:14","modified_gmt":"2021-02-08T02:56:14","slug":"2539","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/2021\/02\/03\/2539\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

Part of the problem in dealing with Iran is The West, and the mindset of some, which keeps Iran from moving much (even though it is now under great pressure\u2014but China and Russia help relieve some of that pressure).\u00a0 The advice from some in The West, such as this editorial from CSM, is indicative.\u00a0 \u201cThe Iranians were complying\u201d with the JCPOA that editorial proclaims.\u00a0 Yes and No and No.\u00a0 An argument can be made they were complying with the technical aspects of the agreement.\u00a0 An argument can be made they were also cheating (i.e, they limited or prevented some key inspections, and were continuing their nuclear weapons ambitions).\u00a0 And the JCPOA through sunset and other provisions allowed them at the end of the agreement\u2019s period to become a nuclear power that was poised to use their then-developed missiles and expanded oppression to be the new version of Hussein of the Middle East.\u00a0 So Yes and No and No.\u00a0 The Trump Administration, not just Donald Trump himself, saw through the poor temporary \u201cfix\u201d the JCPOA was advertised to be and realized that kicking the can down the road wasn\u2019t the answer, because that can was getting heavier and more explosive.\u00a0 The U.S. was right, for itself and the world, to say the \u201cdiplomatic answer\u201d of the JCPOA was not what was needed.\u00a0 A different agreement, or set of incentives was needed.\u00a0 See \u201cCan diplomacy deter Iranian nuclear ambitions a second time?,\u201d<\/a> Editorial, Christian Science Monitor, February 3, 2021.<\/p>\n

I really don\u2019t know what open defiance of the Supreme Leader will buy for the health minister, especially from the hardliners.\u00a0 I wonder what the Leader will say?\u00a0 \u201cIran Buys AstraZeneca-Oxford Vaccine Despite Leader\u2019s Ban on Western Shots,”<\/a> Arsalan Shahla, Bloomberg, February 3, 2021.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cIran has bought 4.2 million doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford University coronavirus vaccine, despite a ban on British and U.S.-made shots. Health Minister Saeed Namaki told state TV the shipment is expected later this month and was secured through the global vaccine procurement system backed by the World Health Organization. In January, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced a ban on importing British and U.S. Covid-19 shots, saying they couldn\u2019t be trusted. But the country\u2019s top epidemiologist later signaled a loophole when she said she was looking to import the British-made vaccine from outside the U.K.\u201d<\/p>\n

So the health minister has a scheme (plan) to increase the quantity and quality of immunizations.\u00a0 Wonder what the Leader is thinking about this?\u00a0 What are his closest followers thinking about the Leader’s position on blocking drugs from the West?\u00a0\u00a0\u201cIran expects 4.2 million AstraZeneca shots under COVAX scheme,\u201d<\/a> Reuters, February 3, 2021.<\/p>\n

\u201cUS seizes another Iranian oil cargo,\u201d<\/a> Argus, February 3, 2021.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cWashington-based sanctions experts point out that Iran’s oil exports have rebounded last year as Tehran has found ways to bypass US sanctions through ship-to-ship transfers and use of front companies. US court documents dealing with Iranian cargoes back that view, alleging that Tehran has managed to make use of facilities at Fujairah and other Mideast Gulf ports to export cargoes. China’s imports of Iranian crude averaged 78,000 b\/d in 2020, based on Beijing’s customs data. The cargo aboard the Achilleas was transferred from ship to ship three times since being loaded into the Iran-flagged Sarak and Sonia I at the Sirri Island oil terminal in Iran in May 2020, according to court documents. The cargoes were then transferred to the Cook Islands-flagged Lubov \u2014 also known as the Ethan \u2014 and then to Panamanian-flagged Trident Liberty, before being loaded into the Achilleas.\u201d<\/p>\n

Just a month after taking a South Korean ship and crew hostage, FM Zarif says, \u201c”Iran has always fully respected int’l law,” he wrote on Twitter.\u00a0 BTW, the Treaty of Amity between the U.S. and Iran (from the 1950s) does not prevent the U.S. from issuing sanctions, regardless of what the ICJ ruled.\u00a0 And if you don\u2019t believe me, then hopefully you\u2019ll see the logic that the treaty has stayed around as a relic of the past (it has not been terminated) despite the terrorism and other acts of Iran against the U.S. over the past 40 years.\u00a0 See \u201cUN court says it can hear case brought by Iran against US,\u201d<\/a> Mike Corder, AP, February 3, 2021.<\/p>\n

Both of these stories are about signaling.\u00a0 How will Iran respond?\u00a0\u00a0\u201cBiden orders USS Nimitz aircraft carrier home in possible signal to Iran,\u201d<\/a> Zachary Keyser, Jerusalem Post, February 3, 2021.\u00a0\u00a0“U.S. signals Biden\u2019s tough stance on Iran with new oil seizure attempt,\u201d<\/a> Verity Ratcliffe, World Oil, February 3, 2021.<\/p>\n

From Tehran to London, he escaped.\u00a0 He didn\u2019t provide many details, and probably won\u2019t to protect others\u2019 abilities to flee.\u00a0 \u201cReleased on bail, British-Iranian academic flees Iran through mountains,\u201d<\/a> AFP, Times of Israel, February 3, 2021.<\/p>\n

Notice that they kept a human hostage, the captain.\u00a0 Reminds us of the movie \u201cCaptain Phillips.\u201d\u00a0 See \u201cIran to release all crew but captain of seized South Korean ship,\u201d<\/a> AFP, VN Express, February 3, 2021.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat is Iran’s mega-missile and what does it mean for nuclear deal?,\u201d<\/a> Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, February 3, 2021.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cIran launched a new satellite-carrying rocket recently, according to reports on February 3. Forbes has reported that it could carry a nuclear warhead, while other media have pointed out that the launch was done as the new Biden administration is discussing the Iran deal. The importance of the launch looks to be multilayered, both signaling to the US the power of Iran\u2019s missile program, and also potentially threatening Israel. Tal Inbar was the head of the UAV research center at the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies until 2019, and he is an independent analyst on missiles, UAV and space. He frequently covers new Iranian missile technology. \u201cThis is an important development,\u201d he told The Jerusalem Post in an interview. Iran introduced a totally new launch vehicle, according to Inbar. \u201cWe knew about it from Iranian sources more than a year ago, and it was fired and launched without a satellite as a test flight, and it is a three-stage launch vehicle.\u201d It is called Zoljanah. \u2026 Tal Inbar: Recent launch was Iran signaling its missile program is off the table for Iran deal discussions.\u201d<\/p>\n

Iran-loyal militias in Syria are now more than 18,000.\u00a0 \u201cSyrian monitor says Iran continues military recruitment operations,\u201d<\/a> Arab News, February 3, 2021.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t forget\u2014\u201cAssadi warned authorities in March of possible retaliation by unidentified groups if he is found guilty, according to apolice document obtained by Reuters.\u201d\u00a0 See \u201cIn first for Europe, Iran envoy faces sentencing over bomb plot,\u201d<\/a> Robin Emmott, Reuters, February 3, 2021.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Part of the problem in dealing with Iran is The West, and the mindset of some, which keeps Iran from moving much (even though it is now under great pressure\u2014but China and Russia help relieve some of that pressure).\u00a0 The advice from some in The West, such as this editorial from CSM, is indicative.\u00a0 \u201cThe … <\/p>\n

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