{"id":6543,"date":"2024-10-04T13:39:19","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T18:39:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/?p=6543"},"modified":"2024-10-10T23:01:08","modified_gmt":"2024-10-11T04:01:08","slug":"6543","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/2024\/10\/04\/6543\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

He really is fortunate that Israel didn\u2019t time his appearance while he was outside.\u00a0 The Supreme Leader also said nothing about most of his ballistic missiles being shot down, nor that they were destroyed by Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, United States, United Kingdom, and France.\u00a0 \u201cIn Rare Appearance, Khamenei Says Iran ‘Won’t Back Down’ As Israel Strikes In Beirut,\u201d<\/a> Iran International, 10-4-24.<\/p>\n

But give the Leader some credit for his approx. 300 missile attacks on civilians and military sites, about 30 missiles got through.\u00a0 \u201cIranian missiles hit Israeli military sites, visuals show,\u201d<\/a> WPost, 10-4-24.<\/p>\n

What about China, and its cover for Iran?\u00a0 This slows Iran from changing its behavior.\u00a0 \u201cChina Buys Nearly All of Iran\u2019s Oil Exports, but Has Options if Israel Attacks,\u201d<\/a> NYT, 10-4-24.<\/p>\n

This would be a great move, and to pressure Iran to change its actions long-term\u2014stop supporting proxies!\u00a0 Real governments don\u2019t use proxies!\u00a0 Normal countries have allies, which means the other country is a sovereign state and not under the control of another.\u00a0 \u201cScoop: U.S. wants to use Hezbollah’s weakness to elect new Lebanese president,\u201d<\/a> Axios, 10-4-24.<\/p>\n

This limited success (no serious damage at the base nor planes lost, but over 30 missiles landed) will embolden Iran.\u00a0 And BTW, the anniversary of Oct. 7 is coming.\u00a0 \u201cIranian Missiles Overwhelmed Israeli Defenses at Some Sites, Analysts Say,\u201d<\/a> WSJ, 10-4-24.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cUnlike April 13, when Iran fired a large number of slower cruise missiles and drones, Tuesday\u2019s barrage was made up exclusively of some 180 much faster ballistic missiles, one of the largest such strikes in the history of warfare. Analysts say that most of these projectiles were Iran\u2019s most modern ballistic missiles, the Fattah-1 and Kheibar Shekan. \u201cThe faster the missile, the harder it is to intercept it, that\u2019s simple physics,\u201d said Ulrich K\u00fchn, head of research for arms control at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg, Germany. \u201cIt\u2019s certainly much harder to defend against ballistic missiles, and even more so if there is a bulk of them coming in on a certain target, because then you have the ability to overwhelm the antimissile defenses\u2014which is exactly what happened in Israel.\u201d Satellite images of a target on Tuesday\u2014the Nevatim air base in southern Israel, home to its F-35 jet fighters\u2014show that as many as 32 Iranian missiles managed to land within the base\u2019s perimeter, according to analysis by professor Jeffrey Lewis, at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey, Calif.\u201d<\/p>\n

Will this change Iran\u2019s behavior?\u00a0 In other words, if SA and Israel normalize, will Iran deradicalize?\u00a0 No.\u00a0 Iran\u2019s creation in 1979 and its constitution and laws and then military set-up and bureaucracy, etc., etc. resulting in a governmental political culture is to spread the Shia revolution, and spread it in a violent, intimidating way.\u00a0 Although the masses disagree, they don\u2019t hold the bicycle chains and the guns.\u00a0 The Supreme Leader has no reason to change even if the Crown Prince of SArabia sees what is the better path forward for his (Sunni Muslim) country and the region.\u00a0 See \u201cKushner has held talks with MBS on US-Saudi diplomacy, Israel normalization,\u201d<\/a> Times of Israel, 10-4-24.\u00a0 The other big news in this story is, implicitly, that NSA Jake Sullivan has okayed these talks between Jared Kushner and MBS.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran’s supreme leader warns it ‘won’t back down’ in Israel fight,\u201d<\/a> USA Today, 10-4-24.<\/p>\n

\u201cIranian supreme leader praises missile attack on Israel, saying Iran will do it again if necessary,\u201d<\/a> AP, 10-4-24.<\/p>\n

Iran has blocked a Lebanese president (and some semblance of democracy) for too long.\u00a0 \u201cScoop: U.S. wants to use Hezbollah’s weakness to elect new Lebanese president,\u201d<\/a> Axios, 10-4-24.<\/p>\n

\u201cClutching a rifle, Khamenei delivers rare public sermon in Arabic,\u201d<\/a> I24, 10-4-24.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

He really is fortunate that Israel didn\u2019t time his appearance while he was outside.\u00a0 The Supreme Leader also said nothing about most of his ballistic missiles being shot down, nor that they were destroyed by Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, United States, United Kingdom, and France.\u00a0 \u201cIn Rare Appearance, Khamenei Says Iran ‘Won’t Back Down’ As … <\/p>\n

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