{"id":7489,"date":"2025-06-13T02:03:59","date_gmt":"2025-06-13T07:03:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/?p=7489"},"modified":"2025-06-15T11:26:52","modified_gmt":"2025-06-15T16:26:52","slug":"7489","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/2025\/06\/13\/7489\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

Today will be a long news day.\u00a0 The actions by Israel overnight are a significant response for Iran\u2019s drive for nuclear weapons and threats, but can also been seen as the result of its radical political terroristic version of Shia Islam that has plagued its neighbors and well beyond.\u00a0 Note that military chief of staff Bagheri and IRGC head Salami and key Ayatollah adviser Shamkhani were killed by the Israel air attacks and covert operations.\u00a0 Together those men did not equal the impact of the 2020 killing of Quds Force head Soleimani by then Pres. Trump, but that action began the domino seen in yesterday\u2019s strikes of pushing back against the Regime.\u00a0 See \u201cIsrael hits Iran\u2019s nuclear program and military leadership in unprecedented strikes,\u201d<\/a> CNN, 6-13-25.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran launched more than 100 drones toward Israel, says IDF spokesperson | LIVE BLOG,\u201d<\/a> I24, 6-13-25.\u00a0 All were shot down–in other words, as of June 13, despite Iran’s trying to respond directly, it can’t.\u00a0 Thus, it is highly likely it will attack U.S. military targets in the Gulf and soft targets in the next days and weeks.<\/p>\n

The IDF\u2019s second defensive attacks (the first were primarily against the nuclear program) were to limit the possible shooting of 100s of ballistic missiles toward Israel.\u00a0 \u201cIDF ‘concludes’ another round of strikes on Iran’s missile arsenal | LIVE BLOG,\u201d<\/a> I24, 6-13-25.<\/p>\n

When reading these stories, a distinct possibility communicated is that a number of Iranian air force generals gathered (several who were reported in the news today as killed) in the middle of the night, they were then trapped in the room, and could have then learned what was about to happen to them.\u00a0 Remember, at the start of an attack the commanders are often the first to be eliminated.\u00a0 \u201cReport: Israel Tricked Top Iranian Military Commanders To Gather. A Missile Was Waiting For Them,\u201d<\/a> Yeshiva World News, 6-13-25;\u00a0\u201cReport: Israel successfully deceived top Iran air force commanders into convening ahead of strike,\u201d<\/a> Times of Israel, 6-13-25.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Middle East is tense as Israel\u2019s attacks sink hopes for de-escalation,\u201d<\/a> NYT, 6-13-25.\u00a0\u00a0Let me remind this reporter and the NYT of an important fact\u2014it is hard to escalate if you don\u2019t have leaders.\u00a0 Ask Hezbollah.\u00a0 Ask Hamas.\u00a0 Ask Iran in the time period after Soleimani was killed\u2014he was the Ayatollah\u2019s right hand man (no excuse for the pun).<\/p>\n

More thoughts\u2014All Israeli pilots made it back, in both waves.\u00a0 All Iranian drones shot down.\u00a0 Iran\u2019s generals were tricked into coming to a meeting (reminds us of the Hezbollah pager attacks).\u00a0 Air attacks months ago took Iran\u2019s AA offline.\u00a0 Natanz was; we will find out if Fordow was attacked.\u00a0 But the Grand Ayatollah is in a corner, and knows nothing other than violence. \u00a0Watch for Iran to possibly try to close the Hormuz Straight, which the U.S. will not allow.\u00a0 In fact, watch for the Supreme Leader to send every ballistic missile he can toward Israel’s cities and bases and again U.S. regional bases.\u00a0 There are no signs yet of Israel attacks to two major nuclear sites, the underground enrichment plant at Fordow and the Isfahan nuclear fuel site, but that is probably coming.\u00a0 Citing an earlier story, \u201cReport: Israel successfully deceived top Iran air force commanders into convening ahead of strike,\u201d<\/a> Times of Israel, 6-13-25.<\/p>\n

\u201cAn extensive Israeli intelligence effort underpinned the Iran strikes,\u201d<\/a> NYT, 6-13-25.\u00a0\u00a0Way to go Mossad.\u00a0 Here are other relevant events that inform us.\u00a0 \u201cIsrael assassinated Iran\u2019s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, with a remote-controlled gun in 2020, and assisted when the United States killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran\u2019s top security and intelligence commander, in a drone strike the same year. \u2026 In 2024, \u201cIsrael was able to kill Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas\u2019s political leader, by planting an explosive device in a Tehran guesthouse run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel also deeply penetrated Iran\u2019s most powerful Iranian proxy, Hezbollah, leading to a spate of attacks in 2024. In September, it targeted members of the militia in elaborate, coordinated attacks using pagers and walkie-talkies, killing dozens of people and injuring thousands. It was also able to infiltrate the group\u2019s communications, culminating in airstrikes the same month that killed the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah.\u201d<\/p>\n

The map reminds us of the widespread and buried \u201cpeaceful\u201d nuclear program.\u00a0 \u00a0\u201cIsrael\u2019s strikes targeted some of Iran\u2019s most important nuclear facilities,\u201d<\/a> NYT, 6-13-25.<\/p>\n

I asked earlier today if the Quds chief Qaani was eliminated.\u00a0 It is now being reported he was killed at a Western Iranian military facility.\u00a0 \u201cReport: Head of Iran\u2019s elite Quds Force killed in Israeli strike,\u201d<\/a> Times of Israel, 6-13-25.<\/p>\n

I24 is reporting on t.v. that Putin has phoned Netanyahu and condemned the attack on Iran.\u00a0 He must be thinking his supply of drones could be cut.\u00a0 I-24<\/a>, 6-13-25.<\/p>\n

In case you\u2019re wondering, and amid reports on I-24 t.v. of AA firing near the Supreme Leader\u2019s compound in central Tehran, who takes Ali Khamenei place if he is killed?\u00a0 Per Article 111 of Iran\u2019s constitution, the Supreme Leader\u2019s successor is chosen by the Assembly of Experts, which consists of more than 80 ayatollahs at present. \u00a0In the interim, the country is administered by a provisional leadership council, of Iran\u2019s president, chief justice, and a member of the Guardian Council. \u00a0Be aware that pressure from the IRGC and the economic powers it has could distort the selection process.\u00a0 Regardless, he is alive at present.\u00a0 See \u201cIranian Supreme Leader’s 2-word threat to Israel as he vows revenge,\u201d<\/a> MSN, 6-13-25.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran launches ballistic missiles at Israel, as Supreme Leader vows to ‘inflict heavy blows’,\u201d<\/a> BBC, 6-13-25.\u00a0 This started about an hour ago, after 9 p.m. Tel Aviv time.<\/p>\n

\u201cIsrael’s overnight strike on Iran in maps and images,\u201d<\/a> BBC, 6-13-25.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Real Threat From Iran,\u201d<\/a> Foreign Affairs, 6-13-25.<\/p>\n

The fuel stockpile.\u00a0 \u201cMuch of Iran\u2019s Nuclear Program Remains After Israel\u2019s Strikes. At Least for Now,\u201d<\/a> NYT, 6-13-25.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cThe first phase of the attack did not hit the most likely repository of Iran\u2019s near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel.\u201d \u2026 \u201c\u201cThe fact that Israel did not bomb a known uranium production facility at Isfahan,\u201d said Jon Wolfsthal of the Federation of American Scientists, which tracks Iran\u2019s nuclear progress closely, \u201csuggests either that Bibi was worried the bombing might cause a radiological incident or that they actually think this will lead Iran to surrender its uranium stocks voluntarily.\u201d The concern about a \u201cradiological incident\u201d is a real one. Bombing the fuel storage site in its current form would not trigger a nuclear explosion. But it could release the fuel into the environment, creating a radiation hazard, essentially turning the Isfahan plant into a dirty bomb.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today will be a long news day.\u00a0 The actions by Israel overnight are a significant response for Iran\u2019s drive for nuclear weapons and threats, but can also been seen as the result of its radical political terroristic version of Shia Islam that has plagued its neighbors and well beyond.\u00a0 Note that military chief of staff … <\/p>\n

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