{"id":8550,"date":"2026-01-22T09:16:18","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T15:16:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/?p=8550"},"modified":"2026-01-26T08:00:03","modified_gmt":"2026-01-26T14:00:03","slug":"8550","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/2026\/01\/22\/8550\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

The headline is the general view among many persons, and is the main theory on timelines for despotic regimes. \u00a0However, the article explores the two routes a coup would follow after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is \u201cdisappeared” suddenly from the scene. \u00a0\u201cHow the Iranian Regime Breaks: Elite Fracture Will Come Gradually and Then Suddenly,\u201d<\/a> Foreign Affairs, 1-22-26.\u00a0 Another way of saying this is non-normal countries have little prediction of a way forward for their people, thus little benefits to understand.\u00a0 A battle of power occurs whenever there is a (made) vacuum.<\/p>\n

\u201cHope for the future of Iran,\u201d<\/a> George W. Bush Center, 1-22-26.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cPeople now see that equal rights can only be achieved if the Islamic Republic is not there. \u2026 Right now, Iranians are really looking to the outside world because they feel that it is their only hope for change. They feel they cannot do it by themselves anymore. And I feel the world is not even doing the bare minimum. For example, Europe has exhausted all options of diplomacy\u2026statements and condemnations \u2013 and it is clearly not enough. They have tried diplomacy for decades. The same is true for the United States. I think what the public needs to understand is that this is not only about Iran. It is about the Middle East. It is about a region that could be more peaceful, where people could live more equally and peacefully, without external forces telling them that one ideology or one group of people is superior to another. And the thing is that the Islamic Republic \u2013 not Iran \u2013 the Islamic Republic defines itself in part by being an enemy of the United States and an enemy of Israel. Imagine that this country could instead become an ally under a different kind of government.\u201d<\/p>\n

Oh great.\u00a0 Remember, freedom of speech doesn\u2019t mean you have to pay (or host) for it.\u00a0 \u201cYale hosts controversial speaker Trita Parsi accused of promoting Iranian regime interests,\u201d<\/a> Fox, 1-22-26.<\/p>\n

Much worse than the Parsi story, this is a Putin story.\u00a0 It looks like he helped Iran keep quiet the news of the killings.\u00a0 \u201cPutin\u2019s \u2018Kill Switch\u2019\u2014Russian Tech Shuts Down Starlink In Iran,\u201d<\/a> Forbes, 1-22-26.<\/p>\n

Military buildup.\u00a0 \u201cInside the US military\u2019s massive buildup ahead of possible Iran strike,\u201d<\/a> JNS, 1-22-26.<\/p>\n

Ah, tell that to the protesters.\u00a0 Or make suggestions to help them.\u00a0 \u201cTrump Has Options in Iran. None Are Likely to Help Protesters Much,\u201d<\/a> WSJ, 1-22-26.<\/p>\n

\u201c\u2026 the distinct possibility that Iran\u2019s ethnics might secede, chiefly the larger ones with kin across borders.\u201d\u00a0 Good point.\u00a0 \u2026 in reality nobody outside is actually or substantially helping defend the populace against the regime\u2019s onslaught. \u2026 For Russia, Iran helps bottle up Central Asia geographically, its trade and pipelines etc, thereby leaving a vast landmass dependent on Moscow\u2019s stranglehold. Also Tehran supplies Shahed drones for use in Ukraine. In short, Putin is not about to let democracy take over in Iran.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0See \u201cDefending A Much-Hated Opinion About The Benefits Of A Fractured Iran,\u201d<\/a> Forbes, 1-22-26.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The headline is the general view among many persons, and is the main theory on timelines for despotic regimes. \u00a0However, the article explores the two routes a coup would follow after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is \u201cdisappeared” suddenly from the scene. \u00a0\u201cHow the Iranian Regime Breaks: Elite Fracture Will Come Gradually and Then Suddenly,\u201d Foreign … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2819,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2532],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2819"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8550"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8550\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8569,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8550\/revisions\/8569"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}