{"id":8630,"date":"2026-02-06T09:12:24","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T15:12:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/?p=8630"},"modified":"2026-02-09T14:11:36","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T20:11:36","slug":"8630","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/2026\/02\/06\/8630\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cNYT: Satellite imagery shows Iran repaired ballistic missiles sites hit in 12-day war,\u201d<\/a> i24, 2-6-26.\u00a0 But the NYT’s satellite analysis is 7 months after the June strikes by the U.S.\u00a0 Instead, almost daily intelligence has been watching, and not reported.\u00a0 But the NYT does say “Experts say that despite some visible work, Iran\u2019s three main enrichment facilities \u2014 Isfahan, Natanz and\u00a0Fordo<\/a> \u2014 appear inoperative.”\u00a0 See “Iran Is at Work on Missile and Nuclear Sites, Satellite Images Show,”<\/a> NYT, 2-6-26.<\/p>\n

\u201cIranian spokesperson says U.S.-Iran talks over ‘for now’ | LIVE BLOG,\u201d<\/a> i24, 2-26.<\/p>\n

Calculated, rational, but still wrong.\u00a0 See \u201cWhy Tehran sees war as a survival strategy,\u201d<\/a> Iran International, 2-6-26.\u00a0\u00a0In part\u2014\u201cIran\u2019s leadership is edging toward a war scenario not because diplomacy is necessarily collapsing, but because confrontation is increasingly seen as the least damaging option for a ruling system under intense internal and external pressure. While Iran\u2019s foreign minister is right now visiting Oman for bilateral talks with the United States, in Tehran\u2019s calculus, negotiations now promise steady erosion. War, by contrast, offers a chance \u2013 however risky \u2013 to reset the balance. This marks a shift from the Islamic Republic\u2019s long-standing view of war as an existential threat. Today, senior decision-makers appear to believe that controlled confrontation may preserve the system in ways diplomacy no longer can. That belief explains why war is no longer unthinkable in Tehran, but increasingly framed as a viable instrument of rule. At the core of this shift lies a stark assessment: the negotiating table has become a losing field. This is not because an agreement with Washington is impossible. It is because the framework imposed by the United States and its allies has turned diplomacy into a process of cumulative concession. When nuclear limits, missile restrictions, regional influence, and even domestic conduct are treated as interlinked files, Iranian leaders see talks not as pressure relief, but as strategic retreat without credible guarantees of survival. From Tehran\u2019s perspective, diplomacy no longer buys time. It entrenches vulnerability. In that context, confrontation begins to look less like recklessness and more like a way out of a narrowing corridor.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIran Refuses to End Nuclear Enrichment in Talks With U.S.,\u201d<\/a> WSJ, 2-6-26.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump calls U.S. and Iran talks in Oman ‘very good’ and says there will be another meeting,\u201d<\/a> NBC, 2-6-26.<\/p>\n

The question is will the U.S. allow this to happen.\u00a0 \u201cIran Returns to Its Negotiating Stall,\u201d<\/a> WSJ, 2-6-26.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cNYT: Satellite imagery shows Iran repaired ballistic missiles sites hit in 12-day war,\u201d i24, 2-6-26.\u00a0 But the NYT’s satellite analysis is 7 months after the June strikes by the U.S.\u00a0 Instead, almost daily intelligence has been watching, and not reported.\u00a0 But the NYT does say “Experts say that despite some visible work, Iran\u2019s three main … <\/p>\n

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