{"id":8697,"date":"2026-03-01T02:15:04","date_gmt":"2026-03-01T08:15:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/?p=8697"},"modified":"2026-03-27T07:28:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T12:28:38","slug":"8697","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/2026\/03\/01\/8697\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s a new day for Iran.<\/strong>\u00a0 March 1, with the so-called Supreme Leader announced yesterday as killed.\u00a0 Ali Khamenei was the second leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and had dicatated for over 35 years after the first ten years of rule by the first Great Ayatollah, Ruhollah Khomeini.\u00a0 Here is obituary, prepared over the past several months by the NYT.\u00a0 “Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Hard-Line Cleric Who Made Iran a Regional Power, Is Dead at 86,”<\/a> NYT, 3-1-26.\u00a0 The article includes a quote by Vali Nasr at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, \u201cIt\u2019s really under him that the Islamic Republic took form.\u00a0 Khomeini led a revolution.\u00a0 Khamenei led a state.\u201d\u00a0 And this is the point of this blog.\u00a0 The NYT, probably without realizing, uses the word “revolution” in its article, and I say without realizing because they don’t really delve into how radical Iran was compared to its neighbors.\u00a0 The post-1979 Iran has been so dangerous because it tied state ideology to violence and attempts to grow its revolution across the Middle East.\u00a0 This blog will continue to watch and see if any reform is taken, anything to show that Iran can take its place among the nations of the world.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump says talks easier after Khamenei, Iran vows \u2018devastating\u2019 response,\u201d<\/a> Iran International, 3-1-26.\u00a0\u00a0For those predicting a wider war across the region, I respond show us the evidence.\u00a0 How many missiles has Iran actually shot.\u00a0 How many have made it through missile defenses?\u00a0 Closing the Dubai airport and having some residential buildings hit is nothing compared to June 2025 and what would have been feared before.<\/p>\n

\u201c\u2018Freedom, freedom!\u2019: Jubilant crowds across Iran celebrate killing of Khamenei,\u201d<\/a> Times of Israel, 3-1-26.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cIranian state television announced a 40-day mourning period and seven public holidays.\u201d\u00a0 I wonder what the odds are now at Polymarket whether the 7 holidays will be observed.<\/p>\n

Apparently Larijani is alive.\u00a0 \u201cAli Larijani, once seen as a pragmatist, steps into void left by Khamenei\u2019s death,\u201d<\/a> Times of Israel, 3-1-26.<\/p>\n

It appears that the great threat to shipping that Iran made is not materializing.\u00a0 Few ships hit, minor damage.\u00a0 Other ships waiting to pass through Hormuz.\u00a0 \u201cTwo ships hit near Strait of Hormuz as fears grow of oil price rises,\u201d<\/a> BBC, 3-1-26.<\/p>\n

\u201cNine dead in missile attack on Israel as Iran strikes region,\u201d<\/a> BBC, 3-1-26.\u00a0 Low numbers of successful missiles and casualties across the Middle East.\u00a0 Iran\u2019s counterattack is falling flat so far.\u00a0 \u201cQatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait – all home to US military bases – said they had intercepted missiles fired towards them, but falling debris appeared to have caused widespread damage.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe months of planning behind US-Israeli mission to target Iran’s supreme leader,\u201d<\/a> BBC, 3-1-26.\u00a0\u00a0Pres. Pezeshkian is apparently alive.\u00a0 \u201cThree senior Iranian defence officials have been confirmed dead by Iran, including Defence Council secretary Ali Shamkhani, Defence Minister Brig Gen Aziz Nasirzadeh and IRGC commander Gen Mohammad Pakpour.\u201d\u00a0 Shamkhani was a real danger, and is a great loss to the Regime.<\/p>\n

How to Make Friends and Influence People–Dale Carnegie would not be impressed by use of the Shahed-136 against civilians.\u00a0 \u201cIran Fires Cheap Drones Into Arab Countries, Wreaking Havoc,\u201d<\/a> NYT, 3-1-26.<\/p>\n

The best article yet detailing how the Leader was deposed.\u00a0 \u201cThe C.I.A. Helped Pinpoint a Gathering of Iranian Leaders. Then Israel Struck.,\u201d<\/a> NYT, 3-1-26.<\/p>\n

These types of statements are endangering the life of the country\u2019s president.\u00a0 \u201cIranian president appears on state TV, says country is ‘crushing enemy’s bases’,\u201d<\/a> BBC, 3-1-26.\u00a0\u00a0Pezeshkian is in a three-person interim committee, with Mohseni Ejehei, head of the judiciary, and Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi.\u00a0 Also, the FM says a \u201cnew supreme leader may be selected in a day or two.\u201d \u00a0Will the Assembly of Experts actually convene?<\/p>\n

“Iran operations ‘ahead of schedule’, says Trump as Tehran hits back across region,\u201d<\/a> BBC, 3-1-26.<\/p>\n

\u201cThree US service members killed \u2013 Centcom,\u201d<\/a> BBC, 3-1-26.\u00a0\u00a0We don\u2019t know where or who yet.<\/p>\n

The last time this happened, peaceful protesters were slaughtered.\u00a0 Those celebrating the Ayatollah\u2019s death should stay off the streets so the Regime can\u2019t take revenge against them for the attacks by the U.S. and Israel.\u00a0 The new three person council may have ordered more shootings.\u00a0 They also don\u2019t want regime change.\u00a0 \u201cInternet access remains severely restricted in Iran,\u201d<\/a> BBC Persian, 3-1-26.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cData from Kentik, a company that monitors global internet traffic, indicates a sharp drop in connectivity across Iran following the attacks. The firm estimates that roughly 99% of the country\u2019s access to the global internet has been cut. This is reflected on social media, where only a limited number of accounts \u2013 mostly belonging to Iranian officials or other trusted individuals \u2013 appear to remain active.\u201d<\/p>\n

Finally.\u00a0 The newspaper admits \u201c[a] badly weakened Iran will no longer intimidate or threaten its neighbors in the same way. The regional impact could be comparable to the collapse of the Soviet Union.\u201d\u00a0 See \u201cIran\u2019s Regime May Survive, but the Middle East Will Be Changed,\u201d<\/a> NYT, 3-1-26.\u00a0 And then \u201cIran\u2019s decline began two years ago, with Israel\u2019s tough and sustained response to an invasion by Hamas from Gaza.\u201d\u00a0 There is a new wind in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

Yep, my thoughts about predictions markets were accurate.\u00a0 Somebody is making a killing. \u00a0See \u201cBets on Fate of Iran\u2019s Khamenei Spark Uproar at Leading Prediction Markets,\u201d<\/a> WSJ, 3-1-26.<\/p>\n

Worth putting all this\u2014I\u2019ve predicted the IRGC would create a military narco-state and use Shia clerics as symbols of authority.\u00a0 \u201cIran’s Guards push to name next leader outside legal procedures,\u201d<\/a> Iran International, 3-1-26.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cThe Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is insisting on the swift appointment of the next leader of the Islamic Republic after Ali Khamenei’s death, sources with knowledge of the matter told Iran International. According to the sources speaking on condition of anonymity, the remaining IRGC command structure is seeking to finalize the decision within the coming hours, specifically by dawn on Sunday, March 1. The sources said with airstrikes ongoing, it is not feasible to convene a session of the Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader. As a result, the IRGC is pushing for the appointment of the next leader to take place outside the legally prescribed procedures. Reports received by Iran International also indicate that following the killing of Khamenei in joint US-Israeli strikes, disarray and confusion have intensified within the Islamic Republic\u2019s security and military structures. Sources say parts of the chain of command have been disrupted, with the transmission of orders and operational coordination facing difficulties. This could further complicate field decision-making and crisis management in the hours and days ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cMahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran\u2019s ex-president who said \u2018Israel must be wiped off the map,\u2019 killed in Israeli airstrikes,\u201d<\/a> NYPost, 3-1-26.\u00a0\u00a0There are many reasons Ahmadinejad would have been on a target list, even if he was not favored currently by the (former) Leader.\u00a0 He represents much of what was bad about the Regime including Mahdi worship and massive anti-Semitism.\u00a0 \u201cAhmadinejad became especially notorious in the West for his rhetoric toward Israel and his comments about the Holocaust.\u201d\u00a0 He was so controversial (including that the Second Coming and the Mahdi were about to occur) that the Leader side-lined his power when he was president. \u00a0It\u2019s pretty bad when you make Ali Khamenei look moderate.<\/p>\n

\u201cExiled Shah Reza Pahlavi: “I Am Leading This Transition,” “The Military Will Side With Us, And We Have A Plan,”<\/a> RealClearPolitics, 3-1-26.\u00a0\u00a0Key quotes.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cREZA PAHLAVI \u2014 FORMER CROWN PRINCE OF IRAN: Well, Maria, to be realistic, from the time that we start until the day we can have the final referendum, I anticipate a period that should not be longer than a couple of years at most. What\u2019s critical is the first 100 days \u2014 to immediately stabilize the country and the Iranian economic situation, and to ensure that the apparatus of government remains as intact as possible so the functioning of the country continues to be in place while we bring all the components together. At the very end, the people will have a choice, and various plans will be proposed in the Constitutional Assembly, which is the entity that will, of course, debate all these issues.\u201d<\/p>\n

A tortured understanding of international law by UK PM Starmer.\u00a0 He seems to be ignoring 45+ years and current threats, looking at this strictly as \u201cwho shoots first on a particular day\u201d equals what is offensive\/illegal IL, and a similar definition for self-defense.\u00a0 Well, he has missed opportunity to help lead in the world in a better direction, and keeps himself (along with France and Germany) in a Maginot Line mindset.\u00a0 At least the U.S. will now have access to Fairford and Diego Garcia.<\/p>\n

\u201cStarmer says he will give US permission to use UK bases for Iran missions,\u201d<\/a> Politico, 3-1-26.\u00a0\u00a0So he waited until the UK was attacked by an Iranian drone at its Cypress air base.\u00a0 That’s not leadership when a long-term threat continues.\u00a0 Wait until the next hit!\u00a0 Wait until the next British tourist hostage is taken!<\/p>\n

\u201cWestern officials reportedly estimate Iran to run out of ballistic missiles in days | LIVE BLOG,\u201d<\/a> i24, 3-1-26.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s a new day for Iran.\u00a0 March 1, with the so-called Supreme Leader announced yesterday as killed.\u00a0 Ali Khamenei was the second leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and had dicatated for over 35 years after the first ten years of rule by the first Great Ayatollah, Ruhollah Khomeini.\u00a0 Here is obituary, prepared over … <\/p>\n

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