{"id":8861,"date":"2026-03-18T07:03:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T12:03:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/?p=8861"},"modified":"2026-03-30T04:47:24","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T09:47:24","slug":"8861","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/2026\/03\/18\/8861\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

Who is winning this war?\u00a0 How to get the Regime the change?\u00a0 Do leaders have a chance to surrender?\u00a0 These are all answerable questions.\u00a0 \u201cThe top Iranian officials killed since Iran war’s start,\u201d<\/a> Axios, 3-18-26.<\/p>\n

Oil, shadow banking, weapons, rocket fuel, international ties.\u00a0 \u201cHow China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive,\u201d<\/a> WSJ, 3-18-26.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran Guards issue evacuation warning for petrochemical sites in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE,\u201d<\/a> Iran International, 3-18-26.<\/p>\n

Well-done description of head of Intelligence Ministry.\u00a0 \u201cSpymaster Esmail Khatib killed: The man who turned dissent into espionage,\u201d<\/a> Iran International, 3-18-26.<\/p>\n

The most detailed story I\u2019ve seen on this.\u00a0 \u201cRussia Is Sharing Satellite Imagery and Drone Technology With Iran,\u201d<\/a> WSJ, 3-18-26.<\/p>\n

\u201cNow that the Iran war is here, the US must complete its mission,\u201d<\/a> Atlantic Council, 3-18-26.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cOne senior Gulf official told me that his country has long known its greatest danger lies in Iran and not in Israel\u2014a reality made obvious in recent days. The war\u2019s inevitability was not due to any one factor, the officials told me. Rather, it was a cumulative consequence of a revolutionary regime that for nearly half a century built its power through murderous proxies, deadly missiles, nuclear aspirations, and relentless intimidation. Another senior Gulf official told me that his country had long argued to US negotiators from Democratic administrations that they were wrong to think that containing Iran\u2019s nuclear capabilities was sufficient, as that failed to address the missiles and proxies that posed threats to its neighbors. In the telling of Gulf officials, the region has been living in a form of shadow war for years. Proxy conflicts, cyberattacks, and military strikes on energy infrastructure were part of a sustained campaign designed by Iran to test and erode the Gulf\u2019s security architecture. Look at Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and increasingly Riyadh. They reflect a degree of religious tolerance, political moderation, and economic modernization that contrasts sharply with Iran\u2019s theocracy. \u2026 Even as US forces pursue these objectives, Americans should not lose sight of the larger opportunity. This past week, one Trump administration official spoke to me about a longer-term vision harbored by some in the White House of a Middle East where not only moderate Arab and Israeli leaders normalize their relations\u2014as they have done through the Abraham Accords\u2014but a new Iranian government and Arab leaders eventually do so as well, ultimately leading to Israeli-Iranian normalization. At this time of war without an obvious end, that vision sounds fantastical. But it is seemingly impossible developments like this one that could become reality, serving both US interests and those of its regional partners, if the Trump administration sees through the mission in Iran that it has set out for itself.\u201d<\/p>\n

Who is making these decisions in Iran?\u00a0 That is a very important question.\u00a0 They are of such consequence, and of such specificity, that it seems like those persons \u201cleft behind\u201d wouldn\u2019t have the wherewithal to figure these strikes out.\u00a0 \u201cIran threatens to strike Gulf energy facilities after South Pars attack,\u201d<\/a> Al Jazeera, 3-18-26.<\/p>\n

Read the headline and understand what the situation is, as you\u2019ll see in the article, and not what the headline implies.\u00a0 \u201cU.S. Intelligence Saw No Change in Iran\u2019s Missile Capabilities Before War,\u201d<\/a> NYT, 3-18-26.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran executes Swedish citizen accused of spying for Israel, judiciary says,\u201d<\/a> Iran International, 3-18-26.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran continues exporting millions of barrels of oil as around 90 ships cross the Strait of Hormuz despite the war,\u201d<\/a> PBS, 3-18-26.\u00a0 Good reporting by PBS.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cVessels may be transiting “with at least some level of diplomatic intervention,” said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List. So, Iran may have “effectively created a safe corridor” with some ships passing close to the Iranian coast. Some vessels near or in the strait were found to have declared themselves as China-linked or with all Chinese crew to reduce risks of being attacked, based on an earlier analysis on ship tracking platform MarineTraffic. Analysts believe they were taking advantage of China’s closer ties with Iran. \u2026 The latest passages through the Strait of Hormuz show the strait was not simply “closed. It is better understood as closed selectively against some traffic, while still functioning for Iranian exports and a narrow set of tolerated non-Iranian movements.\u201d\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIsrael Is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts, One by One,\u201d<\/a> WSJ, 3-18-26.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cThe advanced technology deployed by Israel and the penetration of Iranian society by its agents are combining to create the greatest threat yet to a deeply entrenched regime. But decades of military experience show it is difficult if not impossible to dislodge a government from the air. And if the Iranian regime survives, it could emerge emboldened and more dangerous. \u201cIt will be a clear victory for the regime with both predictable and unforeseen circumstances,\u201d said Farzin Nadimi, an Iran-focused senior fellow with the Washington Institute, a U.S.-based think tank. \u2026 Israel\u2019s security establishment believes Iran\u2019s crumbling economy and popular anger have put the regime on an irreversible path to collapse whether it happens during the war or down the road. Ultimately, though, it is a job Israel and the U.S. are putting on the Iranian people.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIran holds funerals for officials Larijani and Soleimani,\u201d<\/a> Al Jazeera, 3-18-26.<\/p>\n

\u201cIsrael kills Iran intelligence minister Khatib in latest high-profile strike,\u201d<\/a> JPost, 3-18-26.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran attacks Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City in retaliation for Israeli strikes,\u201d<\/a> i24, 3-18-26.<\/p>\n

\u201cHow China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive,\u201d<\/a> WSJ, 3-18-26.\u00a0\u00a0In the vein of the enemy of my enemy is my friend.\u00a0 \u201cFrom buying oil to selling rocket parts, China gives Iran critical support.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIran war: What is happening on day 19 of US-Israel attacks?,\u201d<\/a> Al Jazeera, 3-18-26.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran Maintains Near-Total Internet Blackout Amid U.S.-Israeli Strikes,\u201d<\/a> NYT, 3-18-26.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cAs the war has stretched into its third week, the Iranian government has blocked internet access for most of its 92 million citizens.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Who is winning this war?\u00a0 How to get the Regime the change?\u00a0 Do leaders have a chance to surrender?\u00a0 These are all answerable questions.\u00a0 \u201cThe top Iranian officials killed since Iran war’s start,\u201d Axios, 3-18-26. Oil, shadow banking, weapons, rocket fuel, international ties.\u00a0 \u201cHow China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive,\u201d WSJ, 3-18-26. \u201cIran … <\/p>\n

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