{"id":9004,"date":"2026-04-02T03:07:34","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T08:07:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/?p=9004"},"modified":"2026-04-03T08:03:29","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T13:03:29","slug":"9004","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.acu.edu\/coatesn\/2026\/04\/02\/9004\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

I continue to harp on this.\u00a0 Other countries, who have their leaders of course, need to make this a mainstay of their daily comments and demands.\u00a0 If we can\u2019t believe Iran on whether they have a person in charge, what can we believe them on?\u00a0 It\u2019s simple.\u00a0 Why does Iran get a pass on what is normal?\u00a0 It is so easy to prove\u2014they can take their own film crew underground and interview him, let him read a speech.\u00a0 See \u201cIran new Supreme Leader in good health, foreign ministry says,\u201d<\/a> Iran International, April 2, 2026.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cIran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei Mojtaba is unharmed following US-Israeli airstrikes, the foreign ministry said, adding that not appearing in public is not unusual under wartime conditions. The son of the late Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a strike at the onset of the war, is \u201ccompletely healthy,\u201d according to spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe can just keep working through a list of targets of ever decreasing significance and continue to piss them off to the point that the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] has a solid lock on the government and they feel justified in waging a holy war against the U.S. in perpetuity,\u201d one of the defense officials said. \u201cIn no circumstance can Trump just walk away. He\u2019ll be humiliated if he leaves; and we\u2019ll be in a quagmire if he stays.\u201d\u00a0 Quote from \u201cOfficials warn US is running out of targets to strike in Iran,\u201d<\/a> Politico, 4-2-26.\u00a0\u201cThe problem is there are few military sites accessible now without a ground invasion, said the former Trump official, who like others interviewed, was granted anonymity to discuss highly sensitive war planning. Tehran\u2019s remaining ballistic missile stockpiles \u201care getting harder and harder to hit, because the ones that remain are likely in hardened bunkers,\u201d the person said. \u201cOtherwise they would\u2019ve been taken out already.\u201d Tehran\u2019s strategy of trying to wait out American forces is paying some dividends, driving energy prices higher and ratcheting up the political pressure on the Trump administration to resolve the conflict and avoid the wrath of angry voters. The first official worried that Trump would stumble into a strategy similar to Israel\u2019s campaign of ongoing episodic military strikes to keep its Middle East adversaries in check, known as \u201ccutting the grass.\u201d But that could leave the U.S. stuck taking potshots at Iran with little effect \u2014 and leaving Tehran in control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world\u2019s oil passes.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAbout half of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers remain intact \u2013 report,\u201d<\/a> i24, 4-2-26.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cAccording to CNN, US intelligence assessments indicate thousands of UAVs remain in the hands of the Iranian regime, including “missile cities” that remain buried under rubble from attacks.\u201d<\/p>\n

Great article.\u00a0 Remember what I said, to remember Pres. Jefferson.\u00a0 \u201cControl Over Strait of Hormuz Will Determine Who Wins the War,\u201d<\/a> WSJ, 4-2-26.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cEnding the war in the near future while Iran still controls the crucial waterway would be a geopolitical disaster for America\u2019s allies and partners in the Middle East and beyond, said Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former national-security official in Bahrain. \u201cIran would be able to enforce selective sanctions on whomever it wants and whenever it wants, and essentially hold the flow of shipping through the strait at risk if it desires to do so,\u201d Alhasan said. \u201cThis would ensure indefinite Iranian leverage over the Gulf states\u2019 economies and over global energy security, and it would leave Iran in a state in which it is still capable of posing a threat, wounded, embittered, and in a hostile posture vis-\u00e0-vis most countries in the region.\u201d \u2026 Gulf Cooperation Council states such as the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia possess significant naval and air forces of their own. But they, too, would be unlikely to fight Iran for the strait absent a major American intervention, diplomats and officials say. Still\u2014together with other regional parties, such as Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, and the blessing of much of the international community\u2014these Gulf states could apply significant political and economic pressure on the Iranian regime to reopen the waterway for free passage. Even Russia, Iran\u2019s closest ally, said this week that any arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz must be agreed by all the other littoral states of the Gulf. Iran trying to enforce its control over the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities end would be akin to piracy, said Mehran Haghirian, director of research at the Bourse & Bazaar think tank. \u201cIt would just lead to a complete isolation of the Islamic Republic beyond what it is right now. And in what world would the GCC states just sit back and allow their lifeline to be controlled by Iran?\u201d he said. \u201cThe tension would be not just with the GCC states but with the entire international community, from Indonesia to Burkina Faso to Colombia, that all depend in one way or another on the Strait of Hormuz.\u201d There is another, more practical, difficulty: Currently, Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is considered a terrorist organization by many states, including the U.S. and members of the European Union. Financial transactions with Iran, including paying for the passage of Hormuz, are subject to U.S. sanctions that would deter major global shipping companies. \u201cIn this bizarre era of maritime protection money, shipowners will risk their ship if they don\u2019t pay Iran\u2014but if they pay Iran, they risk their future in the global financial system,\u201d said Jason Chuah, professor of maritime law at the City University of London. \u201cWhat the Iranians are asking for is not just a transit fee but a loyalty test. It\u2019s a test that no commercial entity can hope to pass.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIran Beefs Up Defenses, Recruits Children as It Prepares for Ground War,\u201d<\/a> WSJ, 4-2-26.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I continue to harp on this.\u00a0 Other countries, who have their leaders of course, need to make this a mainstay of their daily comments and demands.\u00a0 If we can\u2019t believe Iran on whether they have a person in charge, what can we believe them on?\u00a0 It\u2019s simple.\u00a0 Why does Iran get a pass on what … <\/p>\n

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