I continue to harp on this. Other countries, who have their leaders of course, need to make this a mainstay of their daily comments and demands. If we can’t believe Iran on whether they have a person in charge, what can we believe them on? It’s simple. Why does Iran get a pass on what is normal? It is so easy to prove—they can take their own film crew underground and interview him, let him read a speech. See “Iran new Supreme Leader in good health, foreign ministry says,” Iran International, April 2, 2026. “Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei Mojtaba is unharmed following US-Israeli airstrikes, the foreign ministry said, adding that not appearing in public is not unusual under wartime conditions. The son of the late Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a strike at the onset of the war, is “completely healthy,” according to spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei.”
Iran continues to be a revolutionary state, not a normal country. Even the supposed alive ayatollah (no April Fools joke) says so. “Letter attributed to Khamenei posted on Telegram pledges support for Hezbollah,” Iran International, 4-1-26. “A letter attributed to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was posted on his Telegram channel, pledging continued support for Hezbollah and its leadership. The letter, dated two days ago, praised “resistance and steadfastness” against the United States and Israel and said Iran’s policy “is based on continuing support for the resistance.” It also expressed confidence in Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, saying he could “defeat the plans of the Zionist enemy” and restore “peace and pride” to Lebanon.”
“The Third Islamic Republic: A War’s Unintended Consequences—for Iran, the Middle East, and the Global Order,” Foreign Affairs, 4-1-26. Suzanne Maloney is an experienced hand in two administrations and good thinker. Her proposal that the current fighting will result in a Third Islamic Republic, though, I will disagree with. Here’s why. Yes, the IRGC is asserting itself at the expense of the religious class and the bureaucracy. But that was happening anyway. The real reason is that she aligns the three republics with the three ayatollahs—and we have no proof yet that there is a third ayatollah. In fact, the media of the world, and the countries of the world, should really demand that they won’t deal with Iran unless they know who they are dealing with.
“Rubio says US will keep Strait of Hormuz open,” Iran International, 3-31-26. “US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States will ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open and warned NATO may need to be re-examined after some allies denied airspace and basing access. “The Strait of Hormuz will be open. When this operation is over, it will be open, and it’ll be open one way or another,” Rubio said in an interview with Al Jazeera. “It will be open because Iran agrees to abide by international law… Or a coalition of nations… will make sure that it’s open. One way or the other, it’s going to be open,” he added. .. He also criticized NATO allies over restrictions on US operations, saying, “We have countries like Spain… denying us the use of their airspace and bragging about it.” “If NATO is just about us defending Europe… but them denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement,” he said, adding the alliance “is going to have to be re-examined.”
This is plain wrong. First Spain, then France, the Italy, refusing different types of landing or flyovers. And also refusing to face up to the pirates holding Hormuz. Maybe this is why it took 47 years (since 1979) without a country truly standing up to the Ayatollahs. See “Trump criticizes France over blocking flights to Israel,” and “Italy denies landing permission for US military aircraft – Reuters,” Iran International, 3-31-26.
A problem long in the making, and should be quickly undone if UAE willing. “Dozens of IRGC-linked money changers arrested in UAE,” Iran International, 3-31-26.
“Over 4,700 security forces killed in US-Israeli strikes on Iran,” Iran International, 3-31-26. “At least 4,770 members of the IRGC, Basij, and police have been killed since the start of the war in attacks by Israel and the United States, Iran International has learned. The sources said 20,880 others have also been injured.”
““Get used to the new order in the region,” IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani said in a post on X on Monday. He said that attacks by Iran-aligned groups had undermined what he described as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plans to expand a regional security belt, warning that a new regional order was emerging. “Netanyahu dreamed of expanding a security belt in the region, but the smart and courageous fire of our brothers in Hezbollah in the north and Ansar Allah in the south exposed the regime’s false assurances,” he wrote. “The dream of the martyred commanders of the resistance has been realized: the war room of the axis of resistance is one.”” See “World must get used to new Mideast order, IRGC-QF chief says,” Iran International, 3-30-26. The U.S. and Israel have been hunting for Qaani.
“Rubio says ‘people of Iran are incredible’ but leadership is the problem,” Iran International, 3-30-26. “US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States distinguishes between the Iranian people and their leadership, and expressed hope for change, while warning Washington was prepared if that does not happen. … Rubio said the US was engaged in indirect contacts with Iranian figures through intermediaries and was testing whether they could deliver change. … Rubio said Iran would not be allowed to control the Strait of Hormuz, calling such a move unacceptable.”
Notice the end of the article. Spain apparently has a pay-off, or has not forsworn it. And this payment of free passage would really be surprising for Spain to accept because it sits at the Gibraltar Strait and remembers the demands of the Barbary Pirates. Here is the end of the article—“ … the Iranian embassy in Spain said Tehran would be receptive to requests from Madrid concerning transit through the Strait of Hormuz because Spain was “committed to international law”. See “Spain closes airspace to US aircraft involved in Iran war,” BBC, 3-30-26.
“Turkey says NATO defences down missile from Iran,” Reuters, 3-30-26. “There was no immediate comment from Tehran which has denied specifically targeting its neighbour Turkey during the conflict and has said it was not involved in the previous three missile launches, which were all downed by NATO defences.” Do we believe the reports from Turkey and NATO or from Iran? Remember, there are radars, visuals, and debris. Because of such, Reuters should follow up and report which side is accurate. (the NYT certainly has done the same with the school in southern Iran hit by most likely a new type of U.S. missile).
“How Russia and China are winning the war in Iran,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, 3-30-26.
“How the US could try to seize Iran’s Kharg Island,” BBC, 3-30-26.
“He Helped Stop Iran from Getting the Bomb,” New Yorker, 3-30-26. “A former C.I.A. officer says that he recruited scientists as part of the United States’ effort to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program.”
Let’s start with two stories about the Kurds. “The Kurdish Ground Force Preparing to Fight in Iran,” Atlantic, 3-29-26.
Did Iran just violate Iraq territory and try to kill the Iraqi Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani? Yes. “Turkey’s Foreign Minister Condemns Drone Attack on President Nechirvan Barzani Residence,” Kurdistan24, 3-29-26.
“Middle East leaders huddle in Pakistan as Trump weighs ground operations in Iran,” CNBC, 3-29-26.
Sorry A&M and NYU. “Iran threatens US campuses in Middle East,” Politico, 3-29-26.
“Iran warns U.S. against ground invasion, as Pakistan holds diplomatic talks,” NPR, 3-29-26.
Here’s a story about another Arab state that has been constantly under the gun from the Regime. Actually for years. “Army Says Iran Targeted Jordan With Missile, 2 Drones in past 24 hours,” Petra News, 3-29-26.
“How Iran is making a mint from Donald Trump’s war,” Economist, 3-29-26.
See “Photos show heavily damaged US radar jet at Saudi base,” BBC, 3-29-26. “Iran’s IRGC-linked Fars news agency said a Shahed drone had struck the E-3 aircraft.” This strike against the AWACS jet and multiple KC-135 tankers may represent the largest attack by Russia against U.S. planes in years. I say Russia, not just Iran, because Russia is providing the satellite targeting and a green light.
“Pentagon reportedly preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran,” Military Times, 3-29-26.
“Iran Update Special Report, March 29, 2026,” ISW, 3-29-26. Two notes. First, “Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials continue to dismiss Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s concerns about Iran’s economic conditions amid Iran’s war with the United States and Israel. Anti-regime media reported on March 28 that there is a deepening rift between Pezeshkian and IRGC Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi over the regime’s actions during the war and the war’s mounting economic and social costs, citing unspecified informed sources.” Second, “The Iranian regime appears to be appealing to nationalist sentiments to recruit members of the Iranian population to help the regime maintain internal security. The Wall Street Journal reported on March 29 that Iran has launched a recruitment campaign called “Janfada,” or “Sacrificing Life,” to recruit volunteers to fight US forces in the event of a US ground operation in Iran, citing a text message sent to Iranian mobile users.”
“Middle East realignment: Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan are reshaping US-Iran relations – opinion,” JPost, 3-29-26.
This is the type of information that is not typically available on open sources. https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-march-29-2026/“Analysis: Iran likely transferred highly enriched uranium to Isfahan before the June strikes,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 3-29-26. “Le Monde has analyzed a previously unreported satellite image of the Iranian nuclear site at Isfahan, showing a large truck loaded with containers. … But the timing of the image, the type of load, and other indirect evidence suggest that Iran may have placed a significant quantity of highly enriched uranium—possibly all of its inventory—at the facility ahead of the June 2025 strikes by Israel and the United States against Iranian nuclear sites.”
The headline starts with “Iran” but should really read “Russia.” See “Iran strike on Saudi Arabia’s Sultan Airbase destroys key US Air Force platforms,” JPost, 3-29-26. At Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. “[D]amaged multiple aircraft and likely completely destroyed an E-3 Sentry aircraft. The attack some 60 miles south of the capital of Riyadh in the early hours of March 27 is said to have involved a coordinated precision barrage of at least one Iranian ballistic missile and several attack drones. According to reports, some 10 to 12 American service members were injured in the attack, with at least two in serious condition. The base, a major operating location for US Air Force platforms during the war, has been attacked several times since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury/Operation Roaring Lion. Earlier in the week, 14 others were wounded in an attack, and another missile strike on the base on March 1 killed one service member. … The loss of an E-3 Sentry AWACS carries strategic consequences far beyond the physical destruction of a single airframe, as it degrades the ability to detect incoming hostile threats and coordinate any retaliatory response. … Its radar provides 360-degree surveillance across a 250-mile radius, allowing it to detect aircraft, drones, and missile launches while simultaneously coordinating friendly forces. .. The US Air Force had around 30 E-3 Sentry aircraft, with Boeing having delivered the last one in 1992. But as the platform struggles to maintain readiness, the USAF has cut the fleet almost in half to 16 aircraft. Of those, six were sent to the Middle East ahead of the war. While the platform is nearing the end of its lifetime, it continues to serve as an airborne command post, linking fighters, bombers, and ground commanders into a unified operational picture throughout the region during the war. Operation Epic Fury has involved thousands of US and Israeli sorties across Iran and the wider region. Managing such a vast air campaign requires persistent airborne command and control, and the E-3 Sentry has been central to that effort. Its ability to track threats, direct aircraft, and maintain situational awareness makes it the backbone of coordinated air operations. … Iran is said to be receiving external intelligence support from allies like China and Russia for advanced surveillance capabilities to target key installations across the Gulf. The attack’s accuracy suggests that Iran had access to timely, high-quality intelligence about aircraft positions and operational patterns at Prince Sultan Air Base, which also houses F-15E Strike Eagles, F-35A Lightnings, F-16 Fighting Falcons, and more.”
This is not a blog about SArabia. But the below story highlights how dangerous SA thinks Iran is. “Iran War Draws Attention to U.S. Troop Presence in Saudi Arabia,” NYT, 3-29-26.
“The Iran war has given Trump his best hand against China — now he shouldn’t fold,” LWJ, 3-29-26.
Russian targeting of U.S. planes continues. This has to stop. I would imagine that Russian’s Yelabuga drone factory in Tatarstan is now being discussed in the Administration, green lighting Ukraine. “Iranian missile, drones strike US military airbase in Saudi Arabia, 12 soldiers wounded – report,” JPost, 3-28-26. The NYT story on this states “The combined missile and drone attack amounted to one of the most serious breaches of American air defenses in the course of the monthlong war with Iran. At least two KC-135 aerial refueling planes also suffered significant damage in the attack.” “Strike on U.S. Base in Saudi Arabia Injures 12 American Troops, 2 Seriously, Officials Say,” NYT, 3-27-26.
But note this next story in light of what you’ve just read. “European allies say Russia is helping Iran more than the U.S. has acknowledged, sources say,” CBS, 3-28-26.
“Iran warns neighbours not to let ‘enemies run the war’ from their land,” Al Jazeera, 3-28-26. Is this warning solely from Iran, or is it also from Russia?
More missiles in the mix, more interceptors needed. “Iran-backed Houthis join war with attack against Israel,” BBC, 3-28-26.
“Russia took satellite images of U.S. air base in days before Iranian attack, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says,” NBC, 3-28-26. These are before and after images, relayed to the Iranians.
What will the UN say? “Iran’s Water Weapon Against the Gulf,” Project Syndicate, 3-28-26.
“Saudi pipeline to bypass Hormuz hits 7 million barrel goal,” Fortune, Bloomberg, 3-28-26.
“Islamic Republic deploys armed supporters in street rallies,” Iran International, 3-27-26.
Taking away an international strait into the sovereign power of a coastal state is illegal under international law. It does not matter that Iran has not ratified UNCLOS (nor has the U.S. or Israel). Nor is Iran’s action legitimate under any doctrine of self defense. “Iranian Foreign Minister defends Hormuz Strait curb,” MEE, 3-27-26. The United States and Israel are correct that the right of innocent passage is part of customary international law. This present-day ability of all nations to move through cargo, oil, etc. through Hormuz was established via the 1949 Corfu Channel judgment of the World Court. Stop and think about it. If Iran prevails, there are so many other international waterways where “might will make right” and toll fees will apply. Here are some: Strait of Malacca, Sunda, Yucatan, Bab-el-Mandeb, Gibraltar, Mozambique, North Channel, Bering, Bosporous, Dover, Taiwan, Magellan, Lombok.
Good for UAE. It is time to put the Barbary Pirates down (see earlier post about President Jefferson). “UAE backs multinational naval force to reopen Strait of Hormuz – report,” i24, 3-27-26. “Abu Dhabi tells the US that it will take part in the coalition plan as shipping disruption fuels global energy concerns. … Abu Dhabi is prepared to deploy its navy as part of the effort. … Officials said the UAE is also working with Bahrain on a United Nations Security Council resolution to provide a mandate for any future force, although opposition from Russia and China is possible. The initiative aims to create what has been described as a “Hormuz Security Force” to escort vessels and ensure safe passage. There is growing recognition among Gulf states and in Washington that reopening the strait may require coordinated naval escorts. … Senior Emirati minister Sultan al-Jaber underscored the broader economic impact of the disruption, saying, “Iran holds Hormuz hostage; every nation pays the ransom, at the gas pump, at the grocery store, at the pharmacy.””
Quote of the Day. “There was a couple of leaders in Europe who said that this was not Europe’s war,” Mr. Rubio said. “Well, Ukraine is not America’s war, and yet we’ve contributed more to that fight than any other country in the world.” Sec. of State Marco Rubio. See “Rubio Expected to Press Allies Over Strait of Hormuz at G7 Meeting,” NYT, 3-27-26.
The (apparent) farce continues. Ah, but let’s see if Ghalibaf says this. I bet a dozen doughnuts he says no such thing. “Ghalibaf acts only with Khamenei Jr approval, insider tells regime supporters,” Iran International, 3-27-26.
“Enriched uranium hidden deep in Iranian mountains could be key to ending war,” ABC Australia, 3-27-26.
“The latest on Iran’s military attacks on Gulf states,” NBC, 3-27-26.
In the Middle East, there is an old saying that everything is connected to everything. And here we see a connection between two wars, and dark vs. light. “Ukraine, Saudi Arabia sign defense deal as U.S. reportedly weighs redirecting Kyiv aid,” CNBC, 3-27-26.
“Ukraine announces ‘mutually beneficial’ defence deal with Saudi Arabia,” Al Jazeera, 3-27-26.
“US offers $10 million reward for information on Iranian cyber actors,” Iran International, 3-27-26.
“Iranian attack on Saudi base wounds at least 10 US troops and damages several planes,” AP, 3-27-26.
This is impressive reporting. Israel usually wouldn’t admit this. “Israel Is Rationing Its Best Interceptors—and Iran’s Missiles Are Getting Through,” WSJ, 3-27-26. It costs more to defend than to attack. “The decision to use less-capable munitions reflects the pressure militaries across the region are under as they burn through expensive, difficult-to-manufacture weapons to fend off attacks from Iran’s mass-produced missiles and drones. The U.S. and Israel have knocked out much of Iran’s capability to fire missiles but not all of it, turning the war in part into a race to see which side runs out first. “The number of interceptors of every type is finite,” said Tal Inbar, a senior analyst at the U.S.-based Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance. “As the fighting goes on, it goes down. And as it goes down, you have to make more careful calculations about what to use.” Iran has fired more than 400 missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel since the start of the war. While the numbers were higher in the early days, the barrages have remained relatively steady in recent weeks, with the additional challenge of Hezbollah firing dozens of projectiles at Israel every day. With every incoming missile, officials must decide whether to let it fall in unoccupied areas or shoot it down, and if so with what system. They also have to consider preserving stockpiles to cover the range of threats that could arise in the days ahead. Israel’s multilayered air-defense system, much of which it developed alongside the U.S., uses different munitions designed to confront different types of threats. On the lower tier is the Iron Dome, which is used to shoot down short-range rockets at a cost of tens of thousands of dollars per interceptor, followed by David’s Sling, which can be used against long-range rockets, tactical ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. At the upper tier is the Arrow 3, which intercepts long-range ballistic missiles that leave the Earth’s atmosphere and is among the best antimissile munitions in the world. An earlier version known as Arrow 2 is still used for medium to long-range missile threats. Israel entered the current conflict with stocks of its Arrow interceptors diminished by the war in June. … Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain are under similar pressure and have been asking the U.S. for interceptors. To help address the capacity concerns, the U.S. has flooded the region with counterdrone systems, which can shoot down lower and slower-flying threats like Iran’s Shaheds.”
“What is Iran demanding in order to end the war?,” BBC, 3-26-26. “Iran’s state broadcaster Press TV has quoted a “senior political-security official” as saying that Iran has rejected a US proposal aimed at ending the current war. “Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its own conditions are met,” the official reportedly told the broadcaster. They outlined five conditions to Press TV that would need to be met in order to end the war: A complete halt to “aggression and assassinations” by the enemy. The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic. Guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations. The conclusion of the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region. International recognition and guarantees regarding Iran’s sovereign right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials have repeatedly said they want a complete end to the war, and not just a ceasefire.”
This is Barbary Coast-style pirate blackmail to sail through an international strait. “Iran MP says Hormuz fee proposal to be reviewed next week,” Iran International, 3-26-26. “A draft proposal to let Iran collect transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz has been prepared and would be sent to parliament’s research center next week for legal review, an Iranian lawmaker said on Thursday. Mohammadreza Rezaei Kouchi said he had prepared the draft jointly with Tehran lawmaker Somayyeh Rafiei and that they planned to finalize it with a legal team.”
“Israel dropped two Iran officials from hit list on Pakistan request – Reuters,” Iran International, 3-26-26. Israel removed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf from its hit list after Pakistan asked Washington not to target them, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing a Pakistani official. “The Israelis had their … coordinates and wanted to take them out, we told the US if they are also eliminated then there is no one else to talk to, hence the US asked the Israelis to back off,” the official said.” So, Araghchi and Ghalibaf have a Get Out of Jail Free card and automatically become the most powerful people in Iran.
I don’t know yet if he is still alive. “Iran Guards navy commander Tangsiri targeted in Bandar Abbas – Israeli media,” Iran International, 3-26-26. “Iran’s Revolutionary Guards navy commander Alireza Tangsiri was targeted in Bandar Abbas, Israeli media reported, citing an official. The official said Tangsiri was responsible for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”
“Israel Says It Killed IRGC Navy Commander Responsible for Blocking Strait,” WSJ, 3-26-26. Was he following orders or acting on his own initiative? Either way, or both, he was blocking a strait protected by international law treaty (UNCLOS, Art. 19, “innocent passage”) and international law custom (which Iran had pledged to uphold). And either way or both, he made he wrong call. Let us remember that everywhere any of these Iran commanders can surrender, resign, flee and ask for asylum, there are many alternatives. See also “Israel kills Alireza Tangsiri, IRGC Navy chief ‘behind blocking of Strait of Hormuz’,” JPost, 3-26-26.
“Generation Jihad | The Hormuz Shake(down),” FDD Long War Journal, 3-26-26. “Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed. It’s not. Ships are still moving. Oil is still flowing. Just not for everyone. Friends pass. Also anyone with millions of dollars to spare. Enemies don’t. This isn’t a blockade. It’s a shakedown.” This interview also makes the point I’ve made, there is no sense in the U.S. Navy letting Iranian tankers pass through the strait. Just seize them and hold them off of Oman and use them in the negotiating process.
“Trump’s Iran strategy is to pursue two off-ramps at once,” BBC, 3-26-26.
“Trump Extends Deadline for 10 Days as Peace Talks Persist,” Truth Social, 3-26-26.
“Iran moves to formalize control over the Strait of Hormuz – report,” i24, 3-26-26.
Yes. Do not seize Kharg. Simply embargo Iran’s tankers which leave Hormuz. “Analysis: Why seizing Iran’s Kharg Island could be a trap of America’s own making,” FDD Long War Journal, 3-26-26.
“Iran’s Long Game: Decades of Preparation Are Paying Off,” Foreign Affairs, 3-26-26.
“Iran, Hezbollah continue launching salvos towards Israel | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 3-26-26.
“Why these 6 Iranian islands could be crucial to Trump’s “final blow” of the war,” Axios, 3-26-26.
“Generation Jihad | The Hormuz Shake(down),” FDD Long War Journal, 3-26-26. “Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed. It’s not. Ships are still moving. Oil is still flowing. Just not for everyone. Friends pass. Also anyone with millions of dollars to spare. Enemies don’t. This isn’t a blockade. It’s a shakedown.”
“Iran’s former diplomats warn of prolonged regional war,” Iran International, 3-26-26.
“Rubio: Iran at ‘weakest point’ yet still attacking embassies and hotels,” Iran International, 3-26-26.
“Iranian military says US is ‘negotiating with itself’ after Trump says Tehran wants deal ‘so badly’,” BBC, 3-25-26.
“US deploys troops to Middle East while pursuing Iran talks on Thursday,” i24, 3-25-26.
There may not be recorded/documented evidence. “Judge Orders Records Search After Trump Ties Cole Attack to Iran,” NYT, 3-25-26. “The bombing of the ship by Al Qaeda killed 17 U.S. sailors in 2000. President Trump has said Iran was “probably involved.” But we don’t know for sure. Until then, there are other known ties between AQ and Iran such as harboring.
No ransom required for this tanker, but what about the others? Remember, if one thing is ingrained in the Regime, it is taking people and ships (and now oil) hostage. “Thai tanker passes Hormuz safely after coordination with Iran,” Iran International, 3-25-26. “A Thai oil tanker has safely transited the Strait of Hormuz after coordination with Iran, a Thai official and the vessel’s owner said. “They responded that they would take care of it,” Thailand’s foreign minister said after requesting safe passage for Thai ships. The tanker was not required to make any payment and is now on its way back to Thailand.” I suggest that someone close to Pres. Trump remind him of what Pres. Jefferson did with the Barbary Pirates, the first U.S. war after Independence. The Ottoman Empire and its four pirate deys along the northern coast of Africa held 20% of the new U.S. country’s budget paid to ransom for our ships to pass through Gibraltar and trade in the Mediterranean. What did the Navy and Marines do? That’s right. The other part of that story which is often not realized is that the countries of Europe, all paid the annual tribute payments for many years and were too afraid to fight. Many ships were taken and thousands of persons were taken into slavery or killed over the years. Thank you Pres. Jefferson.
“In Iran War, Cheap Drones Remain Wild Card,” NYT, 3-25-26. “Iran was still able to launch 70 to 90 drones per day. That was down from more than 400 drones launched on March 1. … Many are intercepted. The Saudi Defense Ministry said on Saturday that it had shot down dozens of drones overnight, while sirens warned of another incoming attack in Bahrain. The United Arab Emirates’ Defense Ministry said it intercepted three more ballistic missiles and eight drones on Saturday. … Estimates of how many Shaheds Iran had at the start of the war vary widely — from thousands to tens of thousands. … There are many different models of the drone known as the Shahed, but the most commonly used is the delta wing Shahed-136, which is in many ways a slow, rudimentary cruise missile. Just over 8 feet wide and around 12 feet long, with a top speed of 115 miles per hour, it launches from a rail-based rack off the back of a military or commercial-grade truck. Once in the air, the Shahed has a range of up to 1,500 miles and uses GPS to find the target for its 90-pound warhead. All at an estimated cost of $35,000 per drone. To combat the threat posed by the Shaheds, Gulf States are firing interceptors that cost millions apiece and scrambling fighter jets that must slow down almost to stall speed to deal with the puttering low-tech machines. They also have Apache attack helicopters machine-gunning them out of the sky. Even if Iran’s ability to manufacture drones were to be severely degraded, it may be able to count on assistance from Russia. Gordon B. Davis, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis who served as a deputy assistant secretary general for NATO’s Defense Investment Division after retiring from the U.S. Army as a major general, said in a briefing on Thursday that Russia was working to produce as many as 1,000 drones a day. Iran is not trying to defeat the United States in any traditional sense, Mr. Davis said, adding, “Iran has adapted quickly, targeting air defenses, radars and command-and-control nodes rather than simply trying to compete symmetrically.””
Yes, Ghalibaf is a likely suspect to be speaking for Iran. Also the FM, Araghchi. Not the president though. “Ghalibaf warns US over troop deployments in region,” Iran International, 3-25-26.
“Pakistan passes US proposal to Iran as fighting continues,” Iran International, 3-25-26. “Two Pakistani officials said separately that Iran had received a 15-point US ceasefire proposal covering issues including sanctions relief, nuclear limits and access through the Strait of Hormuz, the Associated Press reported, though Iran has denied holding negotiations with Washington.”
“Trump’s ‘absurdly incoherent’ Iran pleas leave allies befuddled,” Politico, 3-25-26. “In practice, Europe could deploy destroyers to help Washington escort convoys through the strait, said Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow and naval military expert at the Royal United Services Institute, since the U.S. only has around 25 of the heavily-armed, missile-capable type of vessel available to immediately deploy worldwide. Europe could also supply counter-mining capabilities, he argued, one area where the U.S. is “quite constrained.” Germany, Estonia, France, Romania, Belgium, Bulgaria, the Netherlands and the U.K. together operate roughly 40 counter-mine vessels, he said, compared to America’s four.”
We don’t want this to become a regional war. Russia does. Iran does. “Moscow finalizing drone and aid assistance to Iran – report,” i24, 3-25-26. “Deliveries of humanitarian aid and drones reportedly began in early March and are expected to be finalized by month’s end as Moscow moves to support Tehran.” … If verified, the move would be the first known case of Russia providing direct lethal aid to Iran during the current conflict. Officials cited in the report say Moscow has already been assisting Tehran behind the scenes with intelligence sharing, including satellite imagery and targeting data.” The Gulf states are going to remember they have been getting slammed by drones made not only in Iran but in Russia.
So who else besides Ghalibaf and Araghchi is speaking for Iran? Leave it up to Iran International to tell us. And guess what, as some of us have predicted, it appears the IRGC now rules Iran. ***I suppose this is the moment Iran is no longer a theocracy but officially a military-led regime because Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr is the new head of the Supreme National Security Council. I do, though, have the question if Zolghadr has asked the Pakistanis to ask Israel and the U.S. to protect his life, as they have accomplished (for the moment) for G and A. Which would be an embarrassment for a military leader to take such action. See “Zolghadr, the IRGC insider at the heart of Iran’s power structure,” Iran International, 3-25-26. Hmm. We will have to change the name from the “Islamic Republic of Iran” (it was never a republic) to the “Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran.” To mark this moment, I have pasted the entire I.I. article. “A foundational figure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr’s rise signals not a shift, but a moment of clarity — the same hardline system, now accelerating and more visible than ever. The longtime hardliner is the new chief of the Supreme National Security Council to replace his slain predecessor Ali Larijani, state television said Tuesday. Zolghadr is not a new figure emerging in a moment of crisis, but a product of the Islamic Republic’s original revolutionary security networks. A man whose career spans armed militancy, senior command within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and influential roles across Iran’s political and judicial institutions. “He is one of the last remnants of the radical revolutionaries that armed themselves against the Pahlavi monarchy,” historian Shahram Kholdi told Iran International. A former deputy commander of the IRGC, Zolghadr belongs to the generation that helped transform the Guards into the backbone of the Islamic Republic not only as a military force, but as a political and economic power center. Over decades, the IRGC expanded its reach across the state, embedding itself in key institutions from the interior ministry to the judiciary. Kholdi traces Zolghadr back to the early networks that evolved into the Quds Force — the IRGC’s elite unit responsible for managing Iran’s proxy militias and projecting power across the Middle East placing him alongside the system later commanded by Qassem Soleimani, the architect of Iran’s regional strategy. His appointment following the killing of Larijani underscores what many analysts see as an accelerating trend: the consolidation of power by hardline military figures. What has been a gradual shift over decades appears to have intensified amid the current conflict, with the Guards tightening their grip over both national security and political decision-making. The Quds Force, the IRGC’s external arm, has been at the center of Iran’s regional power projection, training and directing militias from Iraq to Syria, where it helped sustain Bashar al-Assad’s war in a conflict marked by widespread civilian suffering. “He is part of the three to four thousand families that have been forming the power core of the Islamic Republic,” Kholdi said. Zolghadr’s rise does not mark a departure from that system, but a continuation of it, reflecting the enduring dominance of a tightly knit network of insiders drawn from the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary and security institutions. His role in internal repression also stretches back decades. During the 1999 student protests — a pivotal moment in the regime’s violent suppression of dissent— Zolghadr was among a group of senior IRGC commanders who signed a sharply worded letter to then-reformist President Mohammad Khatami. The message warned that if the government failed to decisively crush the unrest, the Guards would act on their own. The episode is widely seen as a turning point, marking a more overt willingness by the IRGC to intervene directly in politics and, for many Iranians, cementing the reform movement’s ultimate failure. His political trajectory has long aligned with Iran’s most hardline currents. He played a role in the rise of former hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and later acknowledged that conservative factions had carried out coordinated efforts to secure that victory. In office, he adopted a confrontational posture toward the United States, warning that Iran would respond to any attack with overwhelming missile strikes. During the Iran-Iraq War, he led units he fought in cross-border operations, which is experience that would help shape the regime’s enduring emphasis on asymmetrical warfare. According to Kholdi, Zolghadr was among those who helped design that doctrine alongside figures like Qassem Soleimani — building a decentralized system capable of operating even under sustained attack. “They created this asymmetrical hierarchy where units can act independently… and continue operating even if leadership is cut off,” Kholdi said. That system is now visible in Iran’s military posture, with dispersed missile and drone capabilities across the region. Kholdi also points to Zolghadr’s deep institutional knowledge as a key factor in his significance today. “The fact that he hasn’t been eliminated is bad news — he is one of the main people who knows a lot about how this system works,” he said, adding that Zolghadr likely has insight into sensitive areas including the country’s nuclear program. For ordinary Iranians, his rise is much the same as his predecessor Ali Larijani, who was eliminated in an Israeli airstrike overnight on March 16 in Tehran. “No, he is much the same,” Kholdi said when asked whether Zolghadr differs from figures like Larijani. His appointment underscores a consistent reality: power in the Islamic Republic remains concentrated within a small circle of entrenched insiders — many of whom have been at the center of the system since its earliest days.”
For speed’s sake, I am using initials of G and A and Z when looking at whose life is currently apparently protected. Uh oh, this is not putting them in well with friends. “Reports of Ghalibaf-Trump channel sparks political storm in Tehran,” Iran International, 3-25-26.
“Group behind European antisemitic attacks may be only a facade, warn experts,” AFP, 3-25-26. “Targeting of Jewish sites in several cities raises concerns that Tehran may be behind newly-established, shadowy organization, already labeled ‘Iranian-backed proxy’ by Israel.”
Attacks against Jordan by Iran continue. “Civil Defense responds to thousands of incidents across Jordan in 24 hours,” Roya News, 3-25-26.
“We punish those who no longer allow us to control them” seems to be the message. See “Iran missile hits Lebanon after Tehran envoy expelled from Beirut,” Iran International, 3-25-26.
They are trying. “50 arrested in northern Iran over alleged contacts with exile media – Tasnim,” Iran International, 3-25-26. “Iranian authorities have arrested 50 people in the northern Mazandaran province for allegedly sending information about military and security sites to the Persian-language broadcasters Iran International and Manoto, IRGC- affiliated Tasnim news agency reported on Wednesday. The arrests were made by the police intelligence organization in the province since the start of the war. The report said the suspects were identified through surveillance and technical intelligence measures. It also said arrests were being carried out across the country, including in villages and remote areas, and warned that those detained would face severe punishment.”
“Iran launches missile attack toward Israel for 7th time in three hours | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 3-25-26.
“The Narrow Path to a U.S.‑Iran Deal,” WSJ, 3-25-26.
Considering the control by Iran in southern Lebanon since the early 1980s and its later heavy influence in the national legislature and in Beirut, this is a really important story in Lebanon’s future and the possible disarmament of Hezbollah. In short, the Supreme Leader Nos. 1 and 2 (there apparently is not a No. 3 as MK is unable to communicate, and I won’t repeat opponent jokes about his not appearing until the Occultation) have violated Lebanon’s sovereignty for too long. See “Beirut declares Iranian ambassador ‘persona non grata,’ calls for his departure,” i24, 3-24-26.
“Israel targeted Russia-Iran weapons supply line in Caspian Sea strike – report,” i-24, 3-24-26. “Officials told The Wall Street Journal that the operation focused on disrupting shipments of ammunition and unmanned aerial systems, including Shahed drones.” Israel sends a message to Russia and Ukraine about right and wrong.
You see this title and your head spins. “Will Iran Turn to Terrorism?,” in Foreign Affairs, 3-24-26. I thought that happened starting in 1979. Somebody call FA.
“Trump administration offers 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran,” AP, 3-24-26.
Read this and let’s talk. The understanding of int’l law and warfare and national interests is not understood by this reporter. Nor do they identify how the Regime was going to be stopped, by somebody, anybody, before the U.S. and Israel, months and months ago, decided to step up. The UN certainly was not addressing Iran. See “Iran war shows norms of international conflicts have been overturned,” BBC, 3-24-26.
“Iran’s Missile Shots at Diego Garcia,” WSJ, 3-24-26. This goes to the debate over “imminent” threat. Please be aware that presidents know more than we. So whether missile capabilities, nuclear enrichment amounts, use of proxies to attack, refusal to negotiate in good faith regarding the nuclear program, continued acceptance of missile aid from China, continued coordination with Russia of drone technology, etc., there was plenty to understand there has been and is an imminent threat from Iran. Whether a president acts on it or not. From the Journal, “The episode also is a reminder of the virtues of missile defense. U.S. systems like Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) and SM-3 have demonstrated their effectiveness, and now everybody wants more interceptors. It’s easy to forget that even shorter-range air defenses were conceived in controversy—derided by the American left as too expensive and provocative to enemies, as if America would somehow be safer if it remained defenseless.”
“Iran’s Missile Shots at Diego Garcia,” WSJ, 3-24-26. This goes to the debate over “imminent” threat. Please be aware that presidents know more than we. So whether missile capabilities, nuclear enrichment amounts, use of proxies to attack, refusal to negotiate in good faith regarding the nuclear program, continued acceptance of missile aid from China, continued coordination with Russia of drone technology, etc., there was plenty to understand there has been and is an imminent threat from Iran. Whether a president acts on it or not. From the Journal, “The episode also is a reminder of the virtues of missile defense. U.S. systems like Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) and SM-3 have demonstrated their effectiveness, and now everybody wants more interceptors. It’s easy to forget that even shorter-range air defenses were conceived in controversy—derided by the American left as too expensive and provocative to enemies, as if America would somehow be safer if it remained defenseless.”
“Saudi Leader Is Said to Push Trump to Continue Iran War in Recent Calls,” NYT, 3-24-26. “Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sees a “historic opportunity” to remake the region, according to people briefed by U.S. officials on the conversations.”
“Iran to expand terror attempts against Israelis, Jews overseas for Passover, Israel warns | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 3-24-26.
“Hezbollah’s missile arsenal slashed after months of Israeli strikes – report,” i24, 3-24-26.
“A ‘Wannabe Strongman’ Rises in Iran as Trump Seeks a Dealmaker,” WSJ, 3-24-26.
“Republicans reject limits on Iran war, despite deepening conflict,” Politico, 3-24-26.