Read this and be shocked—“In the meantime, while the busy shrine in Qom has been declared by Health Ministry Officials as one of the focal points of spreading the virus, some people in the city filmed themselves licking the ornaments touched by thousands of pilgrims every day. A local cleric has claimed that the silver ornaments kill all germs.”  From “More Members Of Iran’s Political Elite Fall Victim To Coronavirus,” Radio Farda, February 29, 2020.

Iran’s government is denying a BBC Persia report that Iran’s deaths total at least 210 — a much higher figure than the Regime has reported — based on the BBC’s own survey of Iranian hospitals. (this is one reason Iran doesn’t like the media). “Confusion and Contradiction Reign in Iran’s Coronavirus Reporting,” Farnaz Fassihi and Rick Gladstone, New York Times, February 28, 2020.

“‘There Is No Evil,’ About Executions in Iran, Wins Top Prize at Berlin Film Festival,” Thomas Rogers, New York Times, February 29, 2020.

Despite rampant discrimination against women attending football matches, and despite now the rampant coronavirus due to the Regime’s lack of timely response, Iran is still asking FIFA to hold matches in the country.  “Iran asks FIFA the country’s election to be held according to timetable,” Tehran Times, February 29, 2020.

Robin Wright remains one of the best experts on Iran.  “How Iran Became a New Epicenter of the Coronavirus Outbreak,” Robin Wright, New Yorker, February 28, 2020.  “The outbreak appears to have started in Qom, the conservative city of Shiite seminaries run by leading ayatollahs, about two hours from Tehran. It is also home to the Fatima Masumeh shrine—famed for its massive gold dome and intricate blue tilework—which draws pilgrims from all over the world. (For its historic beauty, I visit the shrine complex whenever I go to Qom.) The first mention of the disease by the government was a report of two deaths in the city on February 19th. Initial reports indicate that the carrier of the virus may have been a merchant who travelled between Qom and Wuhan, in China, where COVID-19 is believed to have originated. The outbreak is estimated to have begun between three and six weeks ago, which would mean that the two Iranians who died could have been sick and infecting others for weeks.”  …  “Politics may have played a role in the government’s handling of the health crisis, Alaei, the health-policy expert, told me. The outbreak coincided with two major milestones—the anniversary of Iran’s revolution, on February 11th, and the parliamentary election, on February 21st. “The government didn’t want to acknowledge that they had a coronavirus outbreak because they feared it would impact participation in these two events,” he said. “So for weeks there was a huge silence.” Less than forty-three per cent of Iranian voters turned out for the election, the lowest rate of participation since the 1979 revolution. Both voters and poll workers were photographed wearing masks.  “It was the political decision that led to this outbreak in Iran,” Alaei said. “It’s very unfortunate, as Iran has a very well-established infrastructure for the health system and well-educated doctors.” Alaei was imprisoned in 2008 for “communicating with the enemy,” running espionage rings, and trying to “launch a velvet revolution” against the government in Tehran. He spent thirty months in the notorious Evin Prison. He moved to the United States after his release.”

 

Why is the rate, including among officials, of coronavirus so high in Iran?  It is because, up to now, a total disrespect for avoiding the virus (i.e., officials meeting infected persons from China to welcome them back to Iran, shaking their hands, giving them hugs, and then the officials go back to work—and even go to meet and report back to Pres. Rouhani).  I know, this is shocking, but explains why so many high officials in Iran are now infected and one already dead.  I’m sure the Supreme Leader is now paranoid for himself.  “Why is Iran’s reported mortality rate for coronavirus higher than in other countries?,” Dan De Luce, NBC, February 25, 2020.  As this story reports, “Iran’s reported mortality rate for the illness — about 16 percent — surpasses the rate for other countries by a dramatic margin.”

Why won’t they close the 11,000 shrines, and encourage Iranians and Shiites to continue to visit?  The reason is cash.  Admission fees, donations, etc. are critical to the imams’ income, so they don’t want to close the thousands of shrines in Iran (and Iraq), despite the health risks of everyone touching the same grills and bars and some who kiss those things during rituals and visits.  “Iranian Clerics Keep Shrines Open, Even As Virus Spreads,” AP, February 25, 2020.  It is more important to give donations than to have good health.

Iran and Russia have signed many contracts in recent years, for billions of dollars; none of them have materialized.  So it is not surprise that Russia would back out again—Iran is not predictable.  “Russia Pulls Out Of $1.3 Billion Railway Project With Iran,” Radio Farda, February 26, 2020.

“Iran’s elections were a sham,” Struan Stevenson, UPI, February 27, 2020.

“Iran cleric encourages visitors to Qom religious sites, despite coronavirus fears,” Middle East Monitor, February 27, 2020.

Listen to what this important doctor says about the cover-up/mismanagement:  “We think that this virus has been in Iran for the past three to four weeks and has circulated throughout the country. Right now in Iran we are facing a coronavirus epidemic,” said a senior medical doctor at the Masih Daneshvari hospital in Tehran, the country’s top pulmonary public hospital and the main facility overseeing coronavirus patients.  “Doctors Inside Iran Believe Coronavirus Is More Serious Than Reported, and Getting Worse,” Tara Kangarlou, Time, February 27, 2020.

“Tehran Friday prayers fall victim to coronavirus,” Al-Monitor, February 27, 2020.

“Amid virus, Saudis close Islam’s holiest sites to foreigners,” Jon Gambrell, AP, Lancaster Online, February 27, 2020.

“Coronavirus Outbreak In Iran Has Tehran Residents Doubting Government Response,” Peter Kenyon, NPR, February 27, 2020.

“Coronavirus Could Break Iranian Society,” Graeme Wood, The Atlantic, February 27, 2020.

“The news is exploding regarding Iran and the virus.  The Regime’s practices are catching up to it and affecting others in a big way. See “Amid virus, Saudis close Islam’s holiest sites to foreigners,” Jon Gambrell, AP, February 27, 2020.

 

“Coronavirus: Iran has no plans to quarantine cities, Rouhani says,” BBC, February 26, 2020.

“A Utah business leader writes that Iran’s people must forge a path to a constitutional democracy,” Khosrow Semnani and Amir Soltani, UtahPolicy.com, February 26, 2020.

“In Iran, an Electoral Flop,” Ilan Berman, National Review, February 26, 2020.

“Iran to Sentence Citizens Who ‘Spreads Rumors’ about Coronavirus to Flogging, Three Years in Prison,” Zachary Evans, National Review, February 26, 2020.

“Rights Group Calls On UN To Take ‘Urgent Action’ For ‘Brutal Crackdown’ By Iran,” Radio Farda, February 26, 2020.

Iran will be emboldened to read op-eds like this one by Von Rennenkampff which presents Pres. Rouhani as the political authority in Iran.  No, the Supreme Leader is.  Let’s don’t shield the Leader from the constructive criticism that his decisions and actions deserve.  Rouhani is not even “second in command”—he is sixth or seventh.  See “What Reagan and Chamberlain can teach Trump about Iran and North Korea,” Mark Von Rennenkampff, op-ed, The Hill, February 26, 2020.

This blog usually focuses on news from Iran indicating the Regime’s trajectory, and whether it will change its policies and join the nations of the world.  This entry highlights two observations, op-eds, by outsiders.  The first item comes from the Post, offering Iran a possible path forward, and to demonstrate it doesn’t want nuclear weapons.  The second op-ed evaluates the recent election and its low turnout and the intense disenchantment, and predicts that hard-liner will be the next president because of the successful manipulation of the electoral process by the government.  The two op-eds are complimentary in the sense that the West can see what is coming, and that Iran can see what is coming, and its people.  Coronavirus of a different form is capturing the Regime, and the citizens of the country will react, and the government has an opportunity to act for itself before it becomes a very sick country.  See “Two Senate Iran hawks are pushing a new nuclear deal,” Josh Rogin, op-ed, Washington Post, , February 25, 2020, and “What Does the Iranian Election Tell Us?,” Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar, op-ed, New York Times, February 25, 2020.

“‘Recipe for a massive viral outbreak’: Iran emerges as a worldwide threat,” David Kirkpatrick, Farnaz Fassihi, and Mujib Mashal, New York Times, February 25, 2020.

The country’s inability to prepare for and address the virus is shown in what the country chooses to report (in a heavily state-influenced outlet).  See “Rouhani gives required directives for fighting coronavirus,” Mehr News, February 24, 2020.  See also “Rouhani: Coronavirus outbreak will be reined in soon,” Tehran Times, February 25, 2020.

Other countries are concerned by reports and information the Regime suppressed details about the outbreak in Iran.  “Pompeo accuses China and Iran of hiding coronavirus outbreak,” Laura Kelly, The Hill, February 25, 2020.

“Iran’s Supreme Leader Faces Some Supreme Problems,” Bobby Ghosh, Bloomberg, February 24, 2020.

Well, somebody is telling the truth.  Either the FATF, or Iran.  Rouhani says Iran—“[the country] is forerunner in fighting terrorism and money laundering.”  “Iran does not deserve to be blacklisted by FATF: Rouhani,” Tehran Times, February 24, 2020.

 

 

“Iran now has the highest coronavirus death toll outside of China, threatening the wider Middle East,” Natasha Turak, CNBC, February 25, 2020.

Shirin Ebadi, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, apologizes for her and her generation’s acceptation of the Revolution.  Of course, the Revolution was not what it advertised, and has turned out to be much worse than the Shah’s reign.  “I thought the Iranian Revolution would bring freedom. I was wrong,” Shirin Ebadi, op-ed, Washington Post, February 25, 2020.

And include Georgia and Azerbaijan to Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Armenia, Kuwait, and significantly UAE.  All shutting access to Iran via land and air because of coronavirus, but also because of Iran’s lack of transparency.  See “Several countries shut Iran border, halt flights due to COVID-19,” CAN, February 23, 2020.  See also “Turkish Airlines cancels flights to four Iranian cities,” Reuters, February 24, 2020.

It’s the fault of the U.S., and Israel, and Saudi Arabia, and you name the country, but not the Regime and its policies and actions.  “Iran Announces Low Poll Turnout, Blames Coronavirus ‘Propaganda’,” Reuters and Algemeiner, February 24, 2020.

Perhaps not since the Iraqi Information Minister in 2003 has a public sector employee so embarrassed themselves—one day he coughs and sweats in a press conference, declaring the virus is not a problem, the next day he is diagnosed with it.   “Iran official running anti-coronavirus task force has virus,” Jon Gambrell, AP, February 25, 2020.

The only good thing about the virus is that it distracts the public from the bad news of the Parliament election.  So here’s the news beyond the election news—“Iran’s leadership has responded by either ignoring the crisis or denying that it exists.”  Some news stories are reporting that Qom has 50 dead already.  See “Iran Prepares to Suffer the Wrath of the Coronavirus,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, February 24, 2020.

“Cleric Blames Trump For Coronavirus Outbreak In Religious City,” Radio Farda, February 22, 2020.

“Iran’s Revolutionary Guard wrestles with new reality after death of chief military strategist,” Erin Cunningham and Steve Hendrix, Stars and Stripes, Washington Post, February 22, 2020.

“Why Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Is So Dangerous,” Mark Episkopos, National Interest, February 22, 2020.

“Iran’s government and media lied about coronavirus outbreak, riots erupt,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, February 23, 2020.

 

The world’s top anti-terrorism monitoring group, the Financial Action Task Force, voted to keep Iran on its blacklist for failing to tackle terrorism financing in country, extending international sanctions.  They had given Iran many months to “come clean.”  “Iran Remains on Antiterrorism Blacklist, Continuing Sanctions,” Maria Abi-Habib and Salman Masood, New York Times, February 21, 2020.

43% of eligible?  That is very low by world standards.  A clear sign of dissatisfaction with the Guardian Council deleting over half of the persons who applied for candidacy to the Parliament election.  I believe this is the lowest turnout ever in Iran for a national election.  “Iran’s Conservatives Win Elections After Record-Low Turnout, Disqualifications,” Ares Eqbali and Sune Engel Rasmussen, Wall Street Journal, February 23, 2020.

Mehr News is reporting that more than 220 out of 290 members of Parliament will be hardliners and conservatives.  The Supreme Leader has a perfect Parliament.  “Iran’s hardliners win election by large margin, Mehr says,” Arsalan Shahla and Golnar Motevalli, Bloomberg, Herald Mail, February 23, 2020.

 

 

 

 

Yes, Iran is responsible.  This open source reporting is what the intelligence agencies have already known almost from day one.  “Components link Iran to drone attacks in eight countries,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, February 20, 2020.  And similar, “Drone component ties Iran to Saudi oil attacks, watchdog says,” Don Jacobson, UPI, February 19, 2020.

This is one of those helpful stories—Is Iran changing its tune?  Recalibrating?  An alteration in tactics, not strategy?  “Bennett Says Israel Is Seeing ‘First Signs’ of Iran Rethinking Its Syria Strategy,” JNS.org, Algemeiner, February 19, 2020.

“Iran’s New Cruise Missiles Are Not What They Appear To Be,” Michael Peck, The National Interest, February 19, 2020.

This goes back to the recent news that John Kerry (again) met FM Zarif, along with several Dem senators.  Obviously not for “public diplomacy”—they didn’t announce their meeting ahead of time—they would have been roundly criticized and perhaps it wouldn’t have happened.  Logan Act violation?  Probably not, but still troubling because of their inconsistent policy aims not only at odds with the present Administration but also against the aim to draw Iran away from its Revolutionary and terroristic impulses.  “Iran says Zarif met with US senator for ‘public diplomacy’,” Al-Monitor, February 19, 2020.

In the Holy City, no less.  “Iran Takes Emergency Measures After Two Coronavirus Deaths in Qom,” Aresu Eqbali and Sune Engel Rasmussen, Wall Street Journal, February 20, 2020.

Of course it is damaged (they now tell us, weeks later), they’ve been trying to open it and manipulate it.  “Iran Says Black Box of Ukrainian Airliner Is Damaged, Further Delaying Investigation,” Sune Engel Rasmussen, Wall Street Journal, February 19, 2020.

“U.S. Says Iran Continues To Smuggle ‘Advanced Weapons’ To Huthis In Yemen,” RFE/RL, February 20, 2020.

“Iran elections to be dominated by hard-liners as young people refuse to vote: ‘It’s a joke’,” Natasha Turak, CNBC, February 19, 2020.

“Iran ends week-long parliamentary election campaign,” Reuters, February 19, 2020.

“U.S. blacklists five Iranian officials for impeding ‘fair’ elections,” Daphne Psaledakis, Humeyra Pamuk, Reuters, February 20, 2020.

“Naftali Bennett: To stop Gaza terrorism, focus on Iran and Syria,” Jerusalem Post, Tzvi Joffre, February 20, 2020.

To be fair, this headline is misleading.  This article does not discuss what the Pentagon thinks.  Second, arms transfers are months in the making.  It is too early to determine Soleimani’s absence on arms flows.  Regardless, we don’t think Iran is going to stop just because he was stopped?  No, it takes more than that.  “Pentagon: Death of Soleimani has not stemmed Iranian arms smuggling,” Abraham Mahshie, Washington Examiner, February 20, 2020.

“Terror in South America: Iran and Hezbollah threaten the region, insiders say,” Abraham Mahshie, Washington Examiner, February 21, 2020.

“Global watchdog set to sanction Iran for financing terrorism, in blow to the country,” Zachary Halaschak, Washington Examiner, February 20, 2020.

As this article states correctly, Khamenei will determine the outcome of Friday’s parliamentary elections. “Iran’s ‘Hard-Liner in Chief’ Is Only Vote That Counts,” Bobby Ghosh, Bloomberg, February 19, 2020.

This blacklist, totally the fault of Iran because it tries to hide its terrorism-related and other criminal transactions, will broaden the U.S. effort to isolate Tehran financially and pressure it to give up its nuclear weapons program and act as a normal country.  See “Global Terror-Finance Watchdog Set to Sanction Iran,” Benoit Faucon and Ian Talley, Wall Street Journal, February 20, 2020.  See also “Iran’s Long Battle With FATF,” Jason Brodsky, Radio Farda, February 19, 2020.

“New Iranian Missiles Pose Threat to U.S. Aircraft in Yemen, Pentagon Says,” John Ismay and John Gibbons-Neff, New York Times, February 20, 2020.

“US links Saudi Aramco attack to Iran weapons ships seized off Yemen,” Jared Szuba, Defense Post, February 20, 2020.

“US commission condemns report Iran may destroy tomb of Esther and Mordechai,” Zachary Halaschak, Washington Examiner, February 20, 2020.

“Iran, Hezbollah stir chaos in Syria’s southwest,” Jonathan Spyer, Jerusalem Post, February 20, 2020.

“Expect Iranians to boycott sham elections, continue calls for regime change,” Ivan Sascha Sheehan, UPI, February 20, 2020.

“The Recurring Scam Of Allegedly Democratic Elections In Iran: The 11th Majlis Elections – A Continuation Of Khamenei’s Dictatorship Through His Councils,” A. Savyon, M. Manzour, and M. Abraham, MEMRI, February 19, 2020.

“Iranian headscarf campaigner calls for vote boycott,” Christophe De Roquefeuil, AFP, February 19, 2020.

Relevant continually, including in today’s news that a corrupt oil executive has fled for the UAE–a month ago on January 28, VP Eshaq Jahangiri told Tasnim News, “Corruption has currently dominated the entire Revolution like termites.  While some people are starving, others are lining their pockets with the national wealth.”  See “Top Suspect In Large Corruption Case Flees Iran For UAE,” Radio Farda, February 19, 2020.

The irony doesn’t escape us—FM Zarif insists that Iran representatives be present when the black box is opened and examined, but Iran won’t allow country representatives or lawyers (often) be present when a defendant is in a trial or hearing.  What is good for the goose is good for the gander.  “Black box of Ukraine plane downed in Iran noticeably damaged- Iran defence minister,” Reuters, February 19, 2020.

“Amnesty Accuses Iran Of ‘Ongoing Crimes Against Humanity’,” Radio Farda, February 19, 2020.

“Iranians Head to the Polls,” The Cipher Brief, February 19, 2020.

“Iran’s Hard Liners Are Making a Comeback,” Marc Champion and Arsalan Shahla, Bloomberg, February 18, 2020.

“Iranians Tire of Tensions, Restrictions as Elections Near,” VOA, February 18, 2020.

This is a tough blog entry to make—we want Iran’s policies to change, and whether it is a R or D U.S. Administration you don’t want side comments or future agreements or criticisms on foreign soil by U.S. senators, etc. including when they meet high officials of Iran.  This blog entry is about the U.S.—not Iran—they are the government which others says needs to conform to international norms.  So it is tough to turn my keyboard against U.S. senators when the focus should be on Iran and its actions.  But this is a moment to also say that if the Regime was really interested in changing that it would not attempt to play American sides off against each other.  Here is the list of Democrat senators who met with Zarif (they were attending the Munich Security Conference)  Murphy of CT, Menendez of NJ, and Van Hollen of MD.  But I am particularly concerned that former Secretary of State and former senator from MA John Kerry also attended—he has met with Zarif several times, and since they were the two main architects of the JCPOA, which was dangerous for the world, I have to say that I turn very critical of this meeting.  I can’t think of a time when a past secretary of state has worked to undo a new administration’s policy like this, and with multiple meetings with a country that considers itself at war with the U.S. and is the leader in state-sponsored terrorism.  See “Pompeo: I Hope Secret Democrat Meeting With Iran Wasn’t Meant To Undermine U.S. Foreign Policy,” Tristan Justice, The Federalist, February 18, 2020.

“Iran’s Khamenei says voting in parliament election is a religious duty,” Reuters, February 18, 2020.

“After Suleimani: Iran’s scramble to recover from general’s death,” Martin Chulov and Dan Sabbagh, The Guardian, February 18, 2020.

“Iran frees jailed German citizen in prisoner swap,” Al Jazeera, February 18, 2020.  So, a German sentenced to three years for taking photographs in sensitive areas was released in exchange for a freed Iranian.  We’ll see if Germany did this with the approval of the U.S.

“International Watchdog To Review Iran’s Status On Anti-Terror, Money Laundering Laws,” Radio Farda, February 17, 2020.

In a new letter to the Iran government, the international soccer body FIFA says Iranian females must be allowed to enter all stadiums across the country to watch men’s matches.  The death last year of Sahar Khodayari, nicknamed the “Blue Girl” after the main color of her favorite team, restarted the debate over the ban barring Iranian women from attending men’s matches in various sports.  Khodayari was arrested in March for attempting to enter a stadium to watch her favorite team play and was told by court officials she faced a six-month sentence behind bars.  Devastated, she poured gasoline on herself and set herself on fire, dying a few days later in hospital.  This set off a national debate on the no-women policy.  See “FIFA Demands Iran Allow Women To Attend All Football Matches,” Radio Farda, February 18, 2020.

“From Iran, Shiite Cleric Tries To Crush Iraq’s Protest Movement,” Jane Arraf, NPR, February 17, 2020.

Iran continues to influence politics in Afghanistan.  Not surprising because it coincides with their geography, but also because of the expansion of the Revolution, and due to the threat from the east of the U.S. presence.  “Why the Taliban Won’t Cut Ties with Iran,” Kashif Hussain, The Diplomat, February 15, 2020.

“The Iranian Elections: Who’s Running, Who’s Not, Who’s Been Barred,” Frud Bezhan, RFE/RL, February 17, 2020.

“Blackouts Caused By Shortage Of Natural Gas, Iran Officials Say,” Radio Farda, February 17, 2020.

A really good article on the power and politics of the Assembly of Experts, who select and (supposedly) oversee the Supreme Leader.  “Iran’s most powerful hardline clerics to reunite in Assembly of Experts election,” Rohollah Faghihi, Al Monitor, February 18, 2020.

“Iran’s lies reach new levels of mendacity,” Struan Stevenson, UPI, February 18, 2020.

“This Is Iran’s Deadliest Missile (And It Could Someday Carry a Nuclear Weapon),” David Axe, The National Interest, February 17, 2020.

This story is worth posting, but take a look at the picture from Getty selected—I had not noticed before (but now I’ll be on the lookout) the large national flags scattered around Tehran.  How many do you see?  I counted six.  These are identical, and are undoubtedly put up by the Regime for their own purposes.  I wonder how many other large cities in Iran have these government-sanctioned (and nationalistic) markers?  See “Iran-linked hackers use VPN exploits in far-flung spying campaign,” Sean Lyngaas, Cyberscoop, February 18, 2020.

“High voter turnout expected in Iran towns, villages,” Al Jazeera, February 18, 2020.  But not in the large cities—only in rural areas.  At least that’s the prediction.  What happens if in rural areas persons do not show to vote in numbers similar to past elections?  This story also reminds us that the Parliament elections are Friday.

It is possible Iran may release one of the American hostages soon.  Iranian news agencies today are reporting that an Iranian citizen, Ahmad Khalili, detained in Germany for violation of U.S. sanctions and facing extradition to the U.S., was freed and returned to Iran with FM Zarif on Sunday evening.  FM Spokesman Abbas Mousavi on Monday said Khalili was released after intense diplomatic negotiations and with “cooperation of the judiciary and IRGC Intelligence Organization”.  The American hostages in Iran include retired FBI agent Robert Levinson, environmentalist Morad Tahbaz, Baquer Namazi and his son Siamak Namazi, and Navy veteran Michael White.  See “Iranian Accused of Violating U.S. Sanctions Returns Home From Germany,” Reuters, New York Times, February  17, 2020.

“Iran’s parliament speaker says keen to maintain sound ties with Lebanon,” Xinhua, February 17, 2020.  Keeping Lebanon in good relation with Iran is key to Iran’s Shia Crescent project.  This article doesn’t say, and you have to read between the lines, much about the multiple years of efforts by Iran through Hezbollah to influence and control Lebanon’s Parliament and highest government officials.  In fact, when Iran’s speaker mentions Lebanon’s speaker, it is not in a friendly manner of good relations as most countries think of others; instead “sound ties” means “firm bonds” controlled by Iran.

“Critics Say Negative References To Russia Omitted From Iranian Textbooks,” Radio Farda, February 17, 2020.

“Oman Sees Prospects of Talks Between Iran and U.S.,” Golnar Motevalli and Abbas Al Lawati, Bloomberg, February 16, 2020.