Month: July 2020

Explosions were heard in western Tehran, Iran on July 10, and the explosions were followed by a power outage in the city suburbs.  “Iran: Explosion Reported In West Tehran, Official Deny Claims,” Shubham Bose, RepublicWorld.com, updated July 11, 2020.

The questions that enters our minds are two—Who is responsible for the suddenly accelerated attacks against Iran, and What will Russia say and do in reaction?  See “35 Iran-backed terrorists die in an airstrike in Syria,” Mohamad Misto, Ethem Emre Ozcan, AA, July 11, 2020.

“What the world is witnessing right now is someone hitting Iranian nuclear and conventional weapons and IRGC facilities practically at will.”  Whether Israel, MEK, U.S., Saudi Arabia, or others, Iran’s protector power and investigatory power are greatly diminished and unable to respond.  See “How have Iran’s intelligence forces broken down in face of explosions?,” Yonah Jeremy Bob, Jerusalem Post, July 11, 2020.

“Iran sought illegal goods for nuke program – German federal intel,” Benjamin Weinthal, Jerusalem Post, July 11, 2020.

Good for new PM Kadhimi of Iraq, recognizing the corruption on both sides of the border.  Not what the Regime wants to hear, though.  “At Border with Iran, Iraq PM Vows to fight Customs Corruption,” Asharq al-Awsat, July 11, 2020.

“The Shadow Army of Iran’s Regime Extends Its Activities in Germany, Authorities Warn,” Pooya Stone, Iran Focus, July 11, 2020.

“Chabahar to become Iran’s 3rd trade hub soon,” Tehran Times, July 11, 2020.

Beyond the President/FM negotiating treaties and international agreements, there is of course the Supreme Leader that is the most important actor.  The IRGC certainly weighs in, the Majlis has a public role, and the Guardian Council will also be part of the review process.  See “Guardian Council backs Iran-China partnership plan,” Tehran Times, July 11, 2020.

Interesting points made by the main U.S. rep on Iran and Venezuela, and reflective of what other states in the Middle East and Latin America say.  Brian Hook said, “This is the price the regime pays for acting like an outlaw regime.” The Islamic Republic and Venezuela he said, “are rich countries that are governed by thieves”.  He also said that when someone visits Arab Gulf states and Israel it becomes clear that “the Iranian people have been robbed of decades of progress”.  “He added that the difference is the Gulf Arab states and Israel are “investing in their own people” while Iran “is squandering” its resources on terrorism and anti-Semitism.”  See “US Senior Diplomat Says Iran And Venezuela ‘Are Governed By Thieves’,” Radio Farda, July 11, 2020.

So we know that Iran’s military can defend Tehran from commercial jets.  Now we learn more about the recently announced joint cooperation agreement between Iran and Syria.  Wonder why the Russian S-300s aren’t effective or used?  “Citing “informed sources from Iran and Syria”, the daily said that the agreement has two military and political parts. It said the most important thing in the military part is for Iran to provide Syria with its advanced air defense systems such as the Bavar-373 and Khordad-3 missile systems, which means that the two countries have decided to change the rules of engagement in Syrian airspace and to respond to the repeated Israeli raids on Syrian soil. Bavar-373 is an Iranian-made long-range surface-to-air system, which was formally unveiled on August 22, 2019. The system is manufactured by the Iranian Defense Ministry. Khordad-3 is an indigenous air defense system, which has an operational range of between 50 and 75 kilometers. Iran has used the Khordad-3 system in the downing of the U.S. Global Hawk drone on June 20, 2019.”  See “Iran to deploy two air defense missile systems to Syria: report,” Tehran Times, July 11, 2020.

“Iran denounced for torture, abuse of prisoners, and unfair trials,” Christopher Hamill-Stewart, Arab News, July 11, 2020.

“[E]xtreme internal and external pressure”—that is the phrase that bears repeating.  “Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at Washington-based think tank the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the newspaper [Times of Israel] that the latest attacks had led to “extreme internal and external pressure” on Iran as it grapples with an economic crisis and punishing US sanctions.”  Undoubtedly this is because Iran’s intelligence services cannot determine who committed the sabotage related to the Natanz and other explosions in the past two weeks.  Iran suddenly seems unable to defend itself.  See “Israel’s alleged Natanz strike ‘as complex as Stuxnet,’ a major blow to Iran,” Times of Israel, July 10, 2020.

“Iran government squeezed over ‘secretive’ deal with China,” Al Monitor, July 10, 2020.

“Probe reveals Pakistani crime boss spied for Iran in 2014,” Naimat Khan, Arab News, July 10, 2020.

“Iran Executes Man For Drinking Alcohol – Rights Monitor,” Radio Farda, July 10, 2020.

“Israel Will Never Let Iran Improve Syria’s Decrepit Air Defenses,” Paul Iddon, op-ed, Forbes, July 10, 2020.

A 31% increase in trade.  Russia is a facilitator, or if you prefer an enabler.  “Russian Exports To Iran Continue To Grow Despite Decline In Tehran’s Trade,” Radio Farda, July 10, 2020.

“The annual report of the German Federal Intelligence Service warned against Iran’s increasing use of IT infrastructures to access sensitive information with the aim to circumvent sanctions. … The intelligence report also spoke of widespread activity by Iranian intelligence and the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force within German soil, adding that espionage operations were conducted against Jewish, pro-Jewish and Israeli targets. … It “pointed to the Islamic Center in Hamburg, which is considered “the most important representation of Iran in Germany”, in addition to the Iranian embassy. The report said that the center has established a national network of contacts within many Shiite mosques and societies and exerts a significant influence on them.”  See “German Intelligence Warns of Iranian Cyber Spying,” Raghida Bahnam, Asharq Al-Awsat, July 10, 2020.

It is not wise to declare something didn’t happen when you can’t control the video taken, evidence seized (including weapons with Iranian markings), the crew’s statements, and the existence of a third state at the seizure.  “Tehran Denies Seizure Of Iranian Weapons Shipment To Yemeni Rebels,” RFE/RL, July 9, 2020.

“”It takes a special kind of intellectual dishonesty to issue a report condemning the United States for acting in self-defense while whitewashing General Soleimani’s notorious past as one of the world’s deadliest terrorists,” State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said.”  This quote from the article below is a story related to what I recently posted about the UN’s special investigator not fully understanding international relations and international law, and not taking into account Iran’s terrorist actions.  See “US: UN Report Critical Of Drone Strike ‘Whitewashing’ Iran’s Soleimani,” AFP, July 9, 2020.

Let’s hope this sticks.  “Lebanon not planning to negotiate with Iran on fuel imports: minister,” Reuters, July 9, 2020.

“Iran Hits Record One-Day Virus Death Toll of 221,” Bourse & Bazaar, July 9, 2020.

“Despite previous promises to pay compensation for downing Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 in January, Iran now refuses to even discuss the matter ….”  See “Foreign Ministry: Iran avoids discussing compensation for downed Ukrainian airliner,” Ekaterina Shengeliya, Kyiv Post, July 9, 2020.

“Iran’s Oil Storage Ready To Burst,” Julianne Geiger, OilPrice.com, July 9, 2020.

The State Department has released its annual Country Reports on Terrorism late in June, here’s an article about it.  No surprises.  “Iran Again Ranks as Top International Terrorism Supporter,” Eric Rozenman, Jewish Policy Center, July 9, 2020.

“Iran denies it will give China rights to islands for new trade deal,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, July 8, 2020.

“Pompeo Says US Seized Iranian Weapons on Way to Houthi Rebels in Yemen,” Reuters, VOA, July 8, 2020.  The U.S. and an unidentified “partner” interdicted a vessel off Yemen’s coast on June 28 that was carrying Iranian arms to Houthi rebels.  The weapons included 200 rocket-propelled grenades, 1,700 assault rifles, 21 surface-to-air and land-attack missiles, and anti-tank missiles.

“Iran-backed militia threatens escalation after Iraqi security raids group suspected of rocket attacks against US forces,” Qassim Abdul-Zahra and Samya Kullab, AP, July 8, 2020.  Hisham al-Hashimi was gunned down by attackers on motorcycles outside his Baghdad home. He had received death threats from the Islamic State group and Iran-backed militia groups.  Though the killers are currently unknown, look at the timing of the assassination, two weeks after the Iraqi raid on the headquarters of the Kataib Hezbollah militia south of Baghdad.  The message is clear to Iraq’s new PM—if you try to push back on Iran’s paramilitary groups, something bad will happen.

“Iran begins track laying on Chabahar – Zahedan railway,” Oliver Cuenca, International Railway Journal, July 8, 2020.

“Pompeo: We are trying to prevent Iran from selling crude oil to Hezbollah,” Arab News, July 8, 2020.

“Damage to the Iran Centrifuge Assembly Center (ICAC) at Natanz Is Far More Severe and Extensive Than Previously Reported,” David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Frank Pabian, Institute for Science and International Security, July 8, 2020.  This is significant news, and important for keeping Iran away from having a nuclear weapon for now.

“Iran Risks New Nationwide Protests As Economy Keeps Sinking,” Roshanak Astaraki, op-ed, World Crunch, Kayhan, July 8, 2020.

When the school teacher says do your homework if you want to later go to recess, you shouldn’t blame the teacher when recess comes and you haven’t done your homework.  At least that’s how must people are taught.  Not a perfect analogy, but that Iran’s health minister blames the virus in Iran on U.S. sanctions is unfortunate—he only has the IRI government to blame for not addressing the underlying reasons for the sanctions.  See “Iran Blames Growing COVID-19 Toll on ‘Criminal US’,” IFP, July 8, 2020.

“Iran: Inflation and Regime’s Role in Increasing It,” Siavosh Hosseini, The Media Express, July 8, 2020.

“Iran Court Sentences Seven Political Activists to Prison,” Iran HRM, July 8, 2020.

I am still trying to figure out what this agreement means.  The article doesn’t say, and the existing S-300s are meaningless.  “Iran Signs Military Deal with Syria to Boost Air Defenses, Challenge U.S.,” Tom O’Connor, Newsweek, July 8, 2020.

“Tehran Mayor Sees ‘Threat’ in Iranians’ Dissatisfaction,” Amir Havasi,” AFP, Bourse and Bazaar, July 8, 2020.

Not surprising, but attempted suicides have leaped 23% in the past three months in Iran.  “Why Iranians, rattled by suicides, point a finger at leaders,” Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor, July 8, 2020.

When appropriate, this blog will note a story about another country or entity that provides cover for Iranian government action.  This is one of those stories, that is also tied to the growing influence in China’s becoming a possible lifeline to Iran.  “Beijing Backs Diplomatic Resolution of Iran Nuclear Issue,” Financial Tribune, July 8, 2020.

A very unusual video of Iran’s Navy is towing one of its three attack submarines—on land.  This is reportedly moving from a shipyard back to the main naval base at Bandar Abbas.  (BTW, the sub was purchased from Russia in the 1990s).  It is moving from the Iran Shipbuilding & Offshore Industries Complex back to the base at Bandar Abbas, 15 miles.  For some reason unknown to the media, the sub can’t make the trip by water and must travel over land.  According to Combat Fleets of the World, Iran’s three subs had battery cooling problems, poor training, and inadequate maintenance, and by 2001, two were already considered non-operational.  Per submarine authority H.I. Sutton, the subs have had issues with their anechoic coatings, the layer of rubber on their hull to reduce noise.  See “Well, That’s One Way To Tow a 2,300-Ton Submarine,” Kyle Mizokami, Popular Mechanics, July 8, 2020.

“Explosion near Iran’s capital kills two, damages factory: IRNA,” Reuters, July 7, 2020.  Two people were killed in an explosion at a factory in the south of Tehran, state news agency IRNA reported on Tuesday, in the latest in a series of fires and explosions, some of which have hit sensitive sites. “Human error was the cause of the blast in a factory … Two people were killed and three others were injured,” said local official Amin Babai, adding that the explosion happened in “an industrial zone” at Baqershahr near Tehran. “The explosion that was caused by some workers’ negligent handling of oxygen tanks…. was so powerful that the walls of a factory nearby were also totally destroyed.”

Moral of the story—don’t protest and organize protests in prison.  “Jailed Iranian Dissident Hit with 2nd Conviction for Peaceful Prison Protests,” Michael Lipin and Ramin Haghjoo, VOA, July 8, 2020.

“What Iran Wants in Afghanistan,” Colin Clarke and Ariane Tabatabai, Foreign Affairs, July 8, 2020.

“Controversy Over Iran-China ‘Pact’ Continues As Text Is Leaked,” Radio Farda, July 8, 2020.

“Analysis Experts: Natanz Explosion Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by More Than a Year,” Amos Harel, Haaretz, July 8, 2020.

Hisham al-Hashimi was shot dead by motorcycle gunmen outside his home in Baghdad yesterday.  He was a security advisor to Iraq’s government and the U.S. coalition, and appeared regularly in Iraqi media.  “Weeks before his death, al-Hashimi had told confidantes he feared Iran-backed militias were out to get him. Friends had advised him to flee to the northern city of Irbil, in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region.”  See “Prominent Iraqi critic of Iran, proxy groups shot dead in Baghdad,” AP, July 7, 2020.

First Venezuela, now Lebanon.  Who will Iran fleece next with gasoline sales at cheap rates?  “Lebanon’s Hezbollah talks to government about Iran fuel idea,” Thomson Reuters, WKZO, July 7, 2020.

“These incidents at Ahvaz came exactly two days after the Natanz incident, which was exactly two days after the incident in Tehran’s Tarjish Square Sina Athar clinic, which in turn was exactly two days after the events in Khojir and Shiraz.  …  One thing is clear, in a country where the population deeply suspects its official news services, conspiracy theories will abound. Regardless of what has actually happened in these several events, the perception popularly is that the regime is under attack. Few will accept these as all coincidental accidents. Moreover, the climate of corruption leading to incompetence is a huge problem bedeviling the Iranian regime. When the incompetence leads to perceived impotence, the regime faces a potentially fatal upheaval. Even if the last event was a piggy-back attack, indeed, even if it were a genuine accident, the regime is endangered by a reputation for incompetent impotence.”  See “Iran’s really, really bad week,” David Wurmser, op-ed, Israel Hayom, July 7, 2020.

“Iran Ordered to Pay $879 Million to Khobar Towers Bombing Survivors,” PR Newswire, July 7, 2020.  This is a very important reminder about a horrific terror attack by Iran.  Now to make them pay.  “A Washington, D.C. federal court has ordered the Islamic Republic of Iran to pay $879 million in its decision after finding the Iranian defendants directed the 1996 terrorist bombing of the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia where U.S. forces were housed, according to MM~LAW LLC and co-counsel. … The plaintiffs, which include 14 injured U.S. Air Force members and 21 of their immediate family members, brought the lawsuit under the terrorism exception to the U.S. Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act. The defendants are the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security. The court ruled that the Iranian government directed and provided material support to Hizbollah terrorists that detonated a 5,000-pound truck bomb at the Khobar Towers complex in Dhahran. The blast killed 19 U.S. airmen and injured more than 400 others at the site charged with monitoring Iraqi compliance with United Nations security council resolutions. U.S. District Judge Beryl A. Howell found the defendants liable and awarded plaintiffs $132 million for pain and suffering as well as prejudgment interest for a total compensatory damage award of $747 million and $132 million for punitive damages. The plaintiffs will be eligible for partial payments from the United States Victims of State Sponsored Terrorism Fund, the concept and legislation of which was originated by MM~LAW, to compensate American victims of acts of international terrorism with funds obtained from fines and forfeitures levied against companies caught illegally laundering money for sanctioned countries and persons. The attorneys also intend to pursue enforcement of the judgments through litigation intended to seize Iranian assets. … Plaintiff Glenn Tyler Christie, a retired Air Force staff sergeant crew chief severely injured in the bombing, said, “The physical and psychological toll on our families has been extremely high, but this judgment is welcome news. More than 20 years on, we want the world to remember the evil that Iran did at the Khobar Towers. Through the work of our attorneys, we intend to do just that.” … The case is “Glenn Tyler Christie, et al., v. The Islamic Republic of Iran,” et al., Case No. 1:19-cv-01289-BAH, in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.”

“Middle East Countries Want Iran’s Arms Embargo Extended, Pompeo Says,” Radio Farda, July 7, 2020.

“12 Christians Arrested in Iran Last Week,” Jubin Katiraie, Iran Focus, July 7, 2020.

“Mysterious explosions escalate Israel, Iran tensions,” Ben Caspit, Al Monitor, July 7, 2020.

Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium continues to grow in violation of the limits imposed by the 2015 JCPOA, but according to the IAEA the country is abiding by the monitoring and verification mechanisms put in place.  “Iran Continues to Stockpile Uranium,” Arms Control Association, Kelsey Davenport, July/August 2020.

Iran announced on Tuesday 200 more deaths during Monday from the coronavirus, the most in a single day since the Middle East’s deadliest outbreak began.  See “Iran Reports Record One-Day Coronavirus Death Toll of 200,” Bourse and Bazaar, July 7, 2020.

“Ukraine Set To Sue Iran In International Courts Over Downed Airliner,” Radio Farda, July 7, 2020.

“Iran Says It Has Built Underground Missile Cities Along Gulf Coastline,” Haaretz, July 6, 2020.

The attacks by Iran continue.  “Mossad said to foil Iranian attacks on Israeli embassies in Europe, elsewhere,” Times of Israel, July 6, 2020.

Beyond directing Iran’s infrastructure to aligned with China’s Belt project, “One of the secret elements of the deal signed last year is that China will invest US$280 billion in developing Iran’s oil, gas, and petrochemicals sectors. This amount will be front-loaded into the first five-year period of the new 25-year deal, and the understanding is that further amounts will be available in each subsequent five year period, provided that both parties agree. There will be another US$120 billion of investment, which again can be front-loaded into the first five-year period, for upgrading Iran’s transport and manufacturing infrastructure, and again subject to increase in each subsequent period should both parties agree. In exchange for this, to begin with, Chinese companies will be given the first option to bid on any new – or stalled or uncompleted – oil, gas, and petrochemicals projects in Iran. China will also be able to buy any and all oil, gas, and petchems products at a minimum guaranteed discount of 12 per cent to the six-month rolling mean average price of comparable benchmark products, plus another 6 to 8 per cent of that metric for risk-adjusted compensation. Additionally, China will be granted the right to delay payment for up to two years and, significantly, it will be able to pay in soft currencies that it has accrued from doing business in Africa and the Former Soviet Union states. “Given the exchange rates involved in converting these soft currencies into hard currencies that Iran can obtain from its friendly Western banks, China is looking at another 8 to 12 per cent discount, which means a total discount of around 32 per cent for China on all oil gas, and petchems purchases,” one of the Iran sources underlined.”  See “China Inks Military Deal With Iran Under Secretive 25-Year Plan,” Simon Watkins, OilPrice.com, July 6, 2020.

Sadly, this one person at the UN is an example of how obtuse that international body can sometimes be, and how misunderstood or misinterpreted international law can be.  This investigator insists on having the U.S. intelligence of upcoming attacks by Soleimani and ignores the several immediately prior attacks by the Quds Force in coming to her conclusion.  See “U.N. expert deems U.S. drone strike on Iran’s Soleimani an ‘unlawful’ killing,” Stephanie Nebehay, Reuters, July 6, 2020.

“Iran’s top leader vows support for Palestinian cause,” Xinhua, July 6, 2020.

The real reason Iran requires phone registration is so they can ultimately listen in.  “Iran has launched a national scheme to curb the growing market for smuggled mobile phones. Under the scheme, mobile phone users in the country need to register their devices in the country’s telecommunications user database. It has been estimated that 12.5 million mobile phone devices were smuggled into the country in 2018 depriving the government of $350 million in tax revenues.”  See “Iran’s mobile phone registration plan helps curb smuggling,” Trend, July 6, 2020.

“Think Tank Scrutinizes Iran’s Trade Agreements Since 1979,” Financial Tribune, July 6, 2020.

“Prestige Of Iranian Passport Declines Further In World Rankings,” Radio Farda, July 6, 2020.

“A fire at Iran’s main nuclear fuel enrichment site caused significant damage, setting back the country’s nuclear program by months, the government acknowledged on Sunday, after initially saying the destruction was minor. A Middle Eastern intelligence official with knowledge of the episode said Israel was responsible for the attack on the Natanz nuclear complex on Thursday, using a powerful bomb. A member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps who was briefed on the matter also said an explosive was used. Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity when discussing sensitive intelligence and operational topics. … Though there was no way to verify its involvement independently, Israel’s intelligence network has shown its ability to strike in the heart of Iran, breaking into a warehouse in Tehran in 2018 and stealing half a ton of secret records documenting Iran’s nuclear project and spiriting them out of the country. Many of these records were given by Mossad, the Israeli spy agency, to the International Atomic Energy Agency, with many new clues of where Iran might be hiding forbidden equipment and raw material. … Just since Thursday, explosions occurred at two power plants in Iran, and there was a chlorine gas leak at a chemical plant, all of which the government described as accidents. The previous week, an explosion hit a missile production facility at the Khojir military complex in eastern Tehran, which officials said was caused by a gas tank’s detonating. The Middle Eastern intelligence official who said Israel was responsible for the explosion on Thursday also said it had nothing to do with the other recent incidents. Iranian officials have said publicly that they know what caused the damage at Natanz, but that they are withholding the information for now. Iran is using high-speed centrifuges to process, or enrich, uranium. Uranium enriched to lower levels is used in nuclear reactors, but highly enriched uranium can be fuel for an atomic bomb. Work has been underway at Natanz to build more advanced centrifuges to enrich uranium much more quickly.”  See “Iran Admits Serious Damage to Natanz Nuclear Site, Setting Back Program,” Farnaz Fassihi, Richard Pérez-Peña, and Ronen Bergman, New York Times, July 5, 2020.

“Iran reports new record one-day virus death toll of 163: official,” AFP, July 5, 2020.

Before you read further, for emphasis sake remember that the Supreme Leader himself has said that criticism of the Leader is allowed.  Now to the quote from the story.  “Kamfirouzi used to be a regular guest at Khamenei’s annual gatherings with university students. Those allowed to attend Khamenei’s gatherings are hand-picked students who are instructed what to say and how to behave while in the presence of the Supreme Leader. They are deemed to be politically reliable and ideologically loyal. However, during one of these meetings on July 2, 2016, Kamfirouzi dared to remind Khamenei that the Islamic Republic authorities arrest and violate citizens’ rights despite statements by Khamenei himself that the criticism of the Supreme Leader is allowed. The statement was deemed as an afront to the country’s ruler and Kamfirouzi has been harassed by intelligence services and Revolutionary Courts ever since.” See the story at “A Young Lawyer Is Acquitted Of Political Charges In Iran, Helped By Social Media,” Radio Farda, July 5, 2020.

FM Javad Zarif let the cat out of the bag when recently addressing Parliament.  “You can say whatever you want, but the martyr Suleimani and I had weekly meetings. We coordinated with each other every week. In regional talks, whatever we did we coordinated with each other. Those who know Suleimani … and the Iraqi, Lebanese and Palestinian resistance, they know, and not you.”  Do you understand this?  Terrorist acts, conducted by Gen. Suleimani and the Quds Force, were coordinated with FM Zarif.  It is a violation of diplomatic immunity and international law and despicable that a foreign minister would allow himself and his office to be used for terrorism.  See the story at “Iran’s foreign minister heckled and called a liar in parliament,” Patrick Wintour, The Guardian, July 5, 2020.

“The Immortals: Iran’s Elite Cyberwarfare Unit,” Jeremy Walker, Grey Dynamics, SOFREP, July 5, 2020.

“Danger, Will Robinson!”  But joking aside, why not Brazil?  Why not Columbia?  Why not El Salvador?  Pick your country.  Why does Iran want to have closer relations with Venezuela?  Answer that and you understand the danger of this declaration by the President of Iran.  See “Rouhani says Iran, Venezuela should deepen ties,” Tehran Times, July 5, 2020.

“Iran confirms damaged nuclear site was centrifuge facility,” AP, Politico, July 5, 2020.

“Iran’s foreign minister heckled and called a liar in parliament,” Patrick Wintour, The Guardian, July 5, 2020.

“Iran Says Accord Under Negotiation With China ‘Not Secret’,” Bourse and Bazaar, July 5, 2020.

“Iran looks to break US sanctions through 25-year memorandum with Beijing,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post July 5, 2020.

Ekta is owned by the IRGC.  This is an attempt by Iran to further its footprint in Latin America, and to worm its way into controlling Venezuela (remember Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, … a lengthening of the Shia Terror Crescent).  See “Iranian Military-Owned Conglomerate Sets Up Shop in Venezuela,” Ian Talley and Benoit Faucon, Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2020.

This is why.  “An award-winning Israeli journalist and military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai also told Channel 13 TV that by using the new generation of centrifuges Iran could have acquired a nuclear bomb with staggering speed, within weeks or months. “Tehran has received and understood the message,” Ben-Yishai maintained. According to the Israeli commentator, whoever is focusing on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program has tried to relay a message to Tehran, and saying, “Stop enriching uranium more than the level set in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Stop building new, faster centrifuges and stop developing long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.””  See “Israeli Analysts Say Incident At Nuclear Facility A Message To Iran,” Radio Farda, July 05, 2020.

“Iran Blames Israel for Striking at Its Nuclear Program – and Is Likely to Retaliate,” Amos Harel, Haaretz, July 4, 2020.

The move allows a period of about 30 days for all sides to settle their dispute over the JCPOA.  Iran says the European countries are not fulfilling their pledges under the agreement.  Remember, Iran is now violating the agreement with its advanced “research” on centrifuges.  “In January, the UK, France, and Germany first triggered the dispute resolution process in the agreement, but then suspended the action.  See “EU says Iran has triggered nuclear deal dispute mechanism,” Eline Schaart, Politico, July 4, 2020.

This is called using your citizens as human shields.  “Iran Allowed Commercial Flights To Conceal Plans To Strike US Military Bases,” Radio Farda, July 4, 2020.  “The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) on Friday said it has obtained an audio recording that suggests Iranian authorities did not close the airspace over Tehran on January 8 to conceal their plans to strike U.S. military bases in Iraq, leading to the shooting down of a Ukrainian airliner. The Kyiv-bound Ukraine International Airlines aircraft was shot down by two missiles fired by the Revolutionary Guard air defense. The crash killed all 176 passengers and crew members on board. Only after three days did the Guard take responsibility for the tragedy. According to CBC, the recording contains a 91-minute conversation between a victim’s family member in Canada and Hassan Rezaeifar, the head of Iran’s investigation into the incident on March 7. Rezaeifar has apparently been removed from his position on Thursday as the families of the British victims have been notified that another person has been appointed to lead the investigation. Iranian authorities have not officially announced or commented on the removal of Rezaeifar, who is also the director-general of Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization (CAO) from the investigation or appointment of another person.”

“Iran on Saturday confirmed 148 more fatalities on Friday from Covid.  “Iran reports 148 more deaths due to coronavirus,” Muhammet Kursun, AA, July 4, 2020.

“Khojir and Natanz explosions wreck Iran’s strategy of deception,” Christopher Hamill-Stewart, Arab News, July 4, 2020.

“Iran rial slides to new low as coronavirus, sanctions weigh,” Reuters, July 4, 2020.

I am convinced due to the multiple references in open sources that a secret agreement, at least in principle, has been worked out.  Probably a MOU at this point, certainly not what we formally call a treaty (but just as binding under international law—if they want to follow the agreements the two countries make.  See “Iran media discuss 25-year deal between Iran and China,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, July 3, 2020.

It would revolutionize the Middle East, and slow down Iran’s plans to dominate, if some of the Middle East Arab countries continue to move toward normalization with Israel.  “Iran: Speaker Denounces Attempts At Normalization Of Israel Ties,” Tasnim News Agency, July 3, 2020.

“UN human rights experts today expressed outrage at reports of Iran’s secret execution of Hedayat Abdollahpour, a member of the Kurdish minority in the country. The execution reportedly took place on 11 May in a military base in Oshnavieh, West Azerbaijan Province. “We condemn the execution of Hedayat Abdollahpour in the strongest terms,” the independent experts said. “Any death sentence undertaken in contravention of a State’s obligations under international law is tantamount to arbitrary execution and hence unlawful. The fact that the execution took place in secret after an enforced disappearance is an additional aggravating factor.””  See “UN Condemns Iran’s Secret Execution of Kurdish Political Prisoner,” Center for Human Rights in Iran, July 3, 2020.

“Khamenei’s Defiant Foreign Policy Chief Lashes Out At EU Trio, IAEA,”  Radio Farda, July 3, 2020.

“Ukraine, Canada, Afghanistan, the United Kingdom, and Sweden signed a Memorandum of understanding,” Steve Cowan, Free News, July 3, 2020.  See also, “Canada, Sweden Pave Way for Compensation Talks with Iran on Downed Plane,” Bourse and Bazaar, July 3, 2020.

“Cheetahs of the Homeland”?  “Messages claiming Iran nuclear site fire deepen mystery,” AP, July 3, 2020.

“Iran Looking at Possible Sabotage After Recent Explosions at Key Sites,” Aresu Eqbali, Isabel Coles, and Laurence Norman, Wall Street Journal, July 3, 2020.

“Thank God, the site is continuing its work as before,” said Behrouz Kamalvandi, a spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.  These sorts of comments are common, incorporating theological and political comments.  But they also capture the importance of the nuclear program to Iran’s Regime—it’s power, security, and future.  See “Iran reports 2nd mysterious “incident” near a nuclear facility,” CBS News, July 2, 2020.

“INTERPOL Denies Issuing Red Notices for Donald Trump, U.S. Officials, as Iran Claimed,” Polygraph.info, July 2, 2020.

“U.S. files suit to seize gasoline in four Iran tankers headed to Venezuela,” WKZO, July 2, 2020.

Again, we will believe it when we see it.  Iran has a long history of not providing compensation for its deeds and actions.  “”We have signed an agreement of mutual understanding that we will now negotiate together with Iran about amends, compensation to the victims’ next of kin,” Foreign Minister Ann Linde told Swedish news agency TT.”  See “Iran to compensate Ukraine plane crash victims, Swedish official says,” David Keyton and Jan Olsen, AP, Stars and Stripes, July 2, 2020.

“Iran must be held to account for global espionage, assassinations and terrorism plots,” Majid Rafizadeh, op-ed, Arab News, July 2, 2020.

“Lebanon blocks Iran cargo ships from docking over US sanctions fears,” Middle East Monitor, July 2, 2020.

“Central Bank; Where Iran’s Foreign Currency Resources Are Plundered,” Fereydoun Khavand, Radio Farda, July 2, 2020. “The rate of exchange for the U.S. dollar has risen 2,700 times during the past 41 years since the start of clerical rule in Iran under the Islamic Republic system. During the past two weeks the rate has been nearing 210,000 rials per dollar due to an extremely sharp devaluation of Iran’s national currency. The decline has been attributed by the media to a widespread systematic financial corruption, thanks to revelations made by the country’s civil society, foreign-based Persian-speaking media and international institutions. The Central bank of Iran (CBI) has been in the center of the economic chaos that has led to wasting billions of dollars of national resources by offering unjustified privileges to well-connected regime insiders and failing to carry out its initial mission.”  (Keep reading to see more and more of the mismanagement over the decades).”