Month: October 2020

“Russia now maintains a permanent squadron in the Mediterranean, based in Tartus, Syria. This includes submarines and large warships. If Moscow decides the Iran-Syria oil run is now a regular mission for the Russian Navy, it’s set to complicate enforcement of international sanctions….”  This is another example of how Iran is not forced to decide if it will be a normal country—Russia is protecting it.  See “Russian Navy Seen Escorting Iranian Tankers Bound for Syria,” H.I. Sutton, USNI News, October 21, 2020.

“Iran behind threatening pro-Trump emails to U.S. voters, feds say,” Eric Geller, Politico, Eric Geller, October 21, 2020.  After posting this Oct. 21 story, I saw a very large number, dozens of similar stories from multiple sources, on the same topic.  It is rare that I see so many renditions of the same story in various media outlets.

“Revolution is in the air with Iran’s economy in free fall,” Struan Stevenson, UPI, October 21, 2020.

“Iranian Cyberattack Group Deploys New PowGoop Downloader Against Mideast Targets,” Robert Lemos, Dark Reading, October 21, 2020.

An article not about Iran that is about Iran.  “[T]he pipeline between Israeli cities of Eilat on the Red Sea and the Mediterranean port of Ashkelon. The pipeline, built in the 1960s, was intended to serve the transit of crude oil from oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf to customers in Europe. Israel built the pipeline together with Iran at the time—before the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 and before Israel and Iran became bitter enemies.  Israel nationalized the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline after the Islamic Revolution. In 2016, the highest court in Switzerland ordered Israel to pay Iran US$1.1 billion plus interest in the dispute over the ownership of the pipeline. Israel has refused to pay, citing its “trading with the enemy” act.”  See “Israel And The UAE Sign Historic Oil Deal,” Tsvetana Paraskova, OilPrice.com, October 21, 2020.

I hope they kept the sheep off the runway while they were grazing for two days.   Fortunately, there were no take-offs or landings that were reported as having impediments leading to disaster.  Regardless of the humor (and danger) of the story, once again there is another Iran Air flight not maintained well because of decisions made by the Regime.  “Iran Air Boeing 747-200 Diverts To Tehran With Cargo Of Sheep,” Andrew Curran, Simple Flying, October 20, 2020.

322 died on Monday, yesterday.  “Iran’s New Coronavirus Cases Surge by Nearly a Fifth to Record,” Yasna Haghdoost and Arsalan Shahla, Bloomberg, October 20, 2020.

“It is undeniably plausible that NIAC is “conducting lobbying and public-relations activities in coordination with or on behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” as Senators Braun, Cotton, and Cruz warned in January. The American people deserve to know if NIAC is being illegally used by an Iranian regime that routinely wishes “death to America” and funds terrorism throughout the globe to advance policies favorable to its interests. Attorney General Barr, therefore, should act promptly in honoring the senators’ request for a federal investigation of NIAC’s activities and funding sources.”  See “An Iran Lobby in America?,” Michael Johns, Jr., National Review, October 20, 2020.

“Iran hard-liners renew calls for Rouhani’s head,” Al Monitor, October 20, 2020.

“Iranian woman arrested for ‘cycling without hijab’,” AFP, October 20, 2020.

322 deaths on Monday, reported Tuesday.  “Iran Reports A Single-Day Record of More Than 5,000 COVID Cases,” National Herald, October 20, 2020.

“Iran Vows Support for Bolivia’s New Government,” IFP, October 20, 2020.

And will hopefully train on not shooting down civilian airliners.  “Iran’s massive air defense drill to cover ‘half the country’,” Tasnim News Agency, Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, October 20, 2020.

Russia and China are using Iran for their own purposes against the U.S.  That is an important point that needs to be added to these arguments.  “No Matter Who Is U.S. President, Iran Will Drive a Harder Bargain Than Before,” Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar, Foreign Affairs, October 20, 2020.

“Iranian authorities have admitted for the first time that their official figures for coronavirus cases do not reflect the true scale of the outbreak. The admission came as Iran’s daily death toll from COVID-19 again set a record, with 337 fatalities on Monday. The previous high was 279, last Wednesday. More than 30,000 people have now died from COVID-19 in Iran, and the total number of cases rose on Monday by 4,251 to 534,631. The real numbers were higher than officially reported, Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi said, primarily due to “testing and reporting protocols.” Iran was slow to respond to the initial outbreak at the beginning of the year, when clerics encouraged pilgrims to visit religious sites in Mashhad and Qom despite evidence that the virus was already spreading, and it is now the worst affected country in the Middle East. “In recent days, we have witnessed an unprecedented increase in mortality from the disease,” Health Ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari said on Monday. “The current situation is the result of neglecting to comply with health protocols, reduced use of masks and dangerous social behavior in recent weeks.” The government has extended restrictions and closures in Tehran, where schools, mosques, shops, restaurants and other public institutions have been closed since Oct. 3. Health officials have warned that daily deaths could hit 600 if Iranians fail to adhere to health protocols.  See “Iran admits official virus toll is untrue,” Arab News, October 20, 2020.

“Iranian authorities have admitted for the first time that their official figures for coronavirus cases do not reflect the true scale of the outbreak. The admission came as Iran’s daily death toll from COVID-19 again set a record, with 337 fatalities on Monday. The previous high was 279, last Wednesday. More than 30,000 people have now died from COVID-19 in Iran, and the total number of cases rose on Monday by 4,251 to 534,631. The real numbers were higher than officially reported, Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi said, primarily due to “testing and reporting protocols.” Iran was slow to respond to the initial outbreak at the beginning of the year, when clerics encouraged pilgrims to visit religious sites in Mashhad and Qom despite evidence that the virus was already spreading, and it is now the worst affected country in the Middle East. “In recent days, we have witnessed an unprecedented increase in mortality from the disease,” Health Ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari said on Monday. “The current situation is the result of neglecting to comply with health protocols, reduced use of masks and dangerous social behavior in recent weeks.” The government has extended restrictions and closures in Tehran, where schools, mosques, shops, restaurants and other public institutions have been closed since Oct. 3. Health officials have warned that daily deaths could hit 600 if Iranians fail to adhere to health protocols.  See “Iran admits official virus toll is untrue,” Arab News, October 20, 2020.

Such a huge story, and a good story about how a country (Sudan) can continue to leave terror behind and its ties to the terror sponsored by Iran, which used Sudan to ferry missiles, etc. to Gaza.  These are conscious decisions by country leaders, and Sudan moves toward being “normal” by taking this step.  See “Trump to Remove Sudan From List of Countries That Sponsor Terrorism,” Andrew Restuccia and Courtney McBride, Wall Street Journal, October 19, 2020.

But now that we’ve mentioned the great win for peace that the Sudan story portends, “Whack a Mole” continues with the next story in today’s blogging.  China has long looked the other way or facilitated illicit trade between NK and Iran, and the new enhanced relationship with Iran that will stretch over 25 years presents another terror threat to the Middle East and beyond.  So here it is, oil for missiles—Iran and North Korea trade, overseen by China.  “Following the end on the 18th of October of the 13-year United Nations’ embargo on Iran buying or selling weapons, the roll-out of the military component of the 25-year deal between China and Iran will begin in November, … feature the deployment in Iran of North Korean weaponry and technology, in exchange for oil, according to sources very close to the Iranian government spoken to by OilPrice.com last week. Most notably this would include Hwasong-12 mobile ballistic missiles, with a range of 4,500 kilometres, and the development of liquid propellant rocket engines suitable for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or satellite launch vehicles (SLVs). This will all be part of a broader triangular relationship co-ordinated by Beijing and further facilitated by the imminent launch of a new digitised currency system by China.”  See “Iran To Import North Korean missiles In 25-Year Military Deal With China,” Simon Watkins, OilPrice.com, October 19, 2020.

Iran and China continue to ignore sanctions.  “U.S. blacklists Chinese entities, individuals for dealing with Iran,” Reuters, October 19, 2020.

“’Operation Quicksand’: Iran-linked Hackers Target Israel in ‘New Cyberwar Phase’,” Omer Benjakob, Haaertz, October 19, 2020.

Bad news for India, but actually bad news for the region.  As Iran sides more with China, and produces things more by itself, it is leaving good relationships with actors like India.  “Iran Boots Out India From Huge Gas Field Development,” Tsvetana Paraskova, OilPrice.com, October 19, 2020.

It is a little hard to read between the lines here since the message has two contradictory components—we will punish you for siding with Israel, but we are for security agreements with our neighboring states.  Because there is little real interaction between the Arab/Sunni states on the west side of the Persian Gulf and Iran on the east side, thus no foundation to create the opportunity for peace treaties.  Instead, the component of this story that is really news is that the Defense Minister really means it when he threatens the western Gulf states who have the temerity to come to peace with the Jewish state.  See “Iran says ready to sign “military, security” agreements with Gulf states,” Xinhua, October 19, 2020.

Quds Force.  “Ehsan Bidi, the Iranian Regime’s Intelligence Agent Officially Expelled From Albania,” NCRI, October 19, 2020.

337 confirmed dead Monday.  “Iran again breaks its single-day record for coronavirus deaths,” Gulf Today, October 19, 2020.

“Iran Has No Frozen Assets in China,” Financial Tribune, October 19, 2020.

“Iran ranks 158 out of 162 countries and territories under review in Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of the World: 2020 Annual Report, down 15 spots from 143rd in the previous year’s index.”  See “Iran Ranking Drops in Fraser’s Economic Freedom Index,” Financial Tribune, October 19, 2020.

Peaceful nuclear energy programs don’t need seismometers.  The National Council of Resistance of Iran says Iran has “engaged in the secret and illicit purchase of military-grade sensitive seismometers from Russia.”  See “Exiled Iranian opposition group claims secret nuclear site revealed,” Neta Bar, i24NEWS, Israel Hayom, October 18, 2020.

“Iran says UN arms embargo on Tehran has ended,” AFP, Times of Israel, October 18, 2020.  Five years after the nuclear deal took effect, ‘all restrictions on transfer of arms terminated,’ says the Regime.

We will see how the world’s leading terror state handles the ability to buy and sell weapons.  “Pompeo warns any arms sales to Iran will result in sanctions as embargo expires,” Zack Budryk, The Hill, October 18, 2020.

So, Hezbollah (Iran) removed its veto over talks between Lebanon and Israel on ANY topic.  It had been this way for years.  The ammonium nitrate massive explosion in Beirut pressured Hezbollah to do this.  But for now, as PM Netanyahu has said, “It might be a first sign for peace that could maybe happen in the future.” But “there will be no peace with Lebanon as long as Hezbollah is in control of it.”  See “Could Lebanon’s first negotiations with Israel in decades lead to normalization?,” Israel Kasnett, JNS, Israel Hayom, October 18, 2020.

“Iran-backed Houthi militia fires ballistic missile in Sa’dah, Yemen,” Emirates News Agency, October 18, 2020.

On Oct. 18, unfortunately the UN Security Council weapons embargo on Iran is lifted.  This means that the international community can sell weapons to Iran and it can greatly strengthen its military.  Iran can also (legally) sell weapons to other states.  “Conventional arms embargo on Iran set to end: What’s next?,” Maziar Motamedi, Al Jazeera, October 17, 2020.

This is the plane crash that never ends.  These talks will extend over three days—just how long was it since Iran shot down the Ukrainian commercial jet liner and promised to fully cooperate in the investigation?  And to fully compensate?  And to turn over the blackbox?  “Bloomberg: Iran, Ukraine to hold plane crash talks in Tehran,” Bloomberg. Published Oct. 17, 2020.

Iran again claims that its missile program is lawful under self-defense and international law.  They do not address the specific points made by the U.S. and multiple other states on the myriad of reasons this is not true.  “UN Envoy: Iran’s Missile Program Legitimate, Developed for Self-Defense,” Tasnim News Agency, October, 17, 2020.

“Conventional arms embargo on Iran set to end: What’s next?,” Maziar Motamedi, Al Jazeera, October 17, 2020.

Well-explained regarding each actor in the Iranian Regime and where they stand and their motivations.  “The Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict and Its Implications for Iran,” Arvin Khoshnood and Ardavan Khoshnood, BESA, October 16, 2020.

They’re headed to Evin Prison for 44 months.  “On October 15, the Campaign to Defend Political and Civil Prisoners reported that Shahla Jahanbin and Shahla Entesari, two female signatories to Khamenei’s resignation statement, were sentenced to four years and two months in prison with a two-year ban on membership in parties, political and social groups each, in October 2019 by Branch 26 of the Revolutionary Court, headed by Judge Iman Afshari.”  See “Two Additional Women Summoned To Prison For Calling On Khamenei To Step Down,” Radio Farda, October 16, 2020.

Mohammadi served 8.5 years of a 10-year sentence before release—because she contracted Covid in prison.”  See “UN Experts Welcome Iranian Human Rights Advocate’s Release,” Radio Farda, October 16, 2020.

“A new blow to Iran’s forgotten Jews,” Rafael Medoff, San Diego Jewish World, October 16, 2020.

“UN Secretary-General Decries Iran’s Human Rights Violations,” Radio Farda, October 16, 2020.  “In his annual report, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described “repeated and serious violations” of human rights in Iran as a “grave concern.” The report published on Wednesday was prepared for submission to the UN General Assembly (UNGA) two months ago. Guterres’s report, which covers the period from September 2018 to the summer of 2020, underlines “repeated serious violations” of human rights and “violent repression” of widespread protests in Iran.”

“Source: 2 Baha’i Women in Iran Report to Prison to Begin Sentences for Practicing Their Faith,” Michael Lipin and Ramin Haghjoo, VOA, October 16, 2020.

While so welcome, this move by the Guardian Council could clear the way instead for hardline women to run for president.  The article below is the best written on this breaking news.  “Iran’s all-male Guardian Council, after four decades of barring women from the presidency, has reversed course to allow women to run in 2021. The step has been largely welcomed as a positive sign by women’s rights advocates, although the constitutional watchdog tasked with overseeing Iran’s electoral process screens all candidates’ eligibility for elected government positions. In a press conference on October 10, Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, the spokesperson of the ultra-conservative body, which operates under the aegis of the Supreme Leader, surprised reporters by saying there was no prohibition on women running for the presidency in next year’s elections. No explicit legal provision blocked women’s path to the presidency previously in Iran. Article 115 of the Islamic Republic Constitution stipulates that the president should be picked from among the country’s political and religious rijal who is a national of Iran, pledges allegiance to the principles of the Islamic Republic, enjoys a favorable public reputation and subscribes to the country’s official religion, Shia Islam. Originally an Arabic word, rijal literally means “men,” and the Guardian Council lawyers, for more than four decades, have taken the word at its face value in their exegesis of the constitution, denying women the right to become president. Critics of the council say rijal in the context of the constitution was meant to denote political and religious figures in general, not necessarily male personalities. Yet neither the constitution was ever amended to polish the cryptic wording, nor did the Guardian Council back away from its position disenfranchising women from assuming the highest elected office. Iranian women, however, are represented on other levels of public administration, including vice-presidency, cabinet ministers, ambassadors, MPs and provincial directors. The announcement by the powerful, rearguard council, marking a notable reversal in its hardline policies since 1979, is probably an appeal to Iranian women and youths on behalf of the establishment to reconcile them with the ballot box as more Iranians appear to be disillusioned with the political elites failing to handle the Covid-19 pandemic and a full-blown economic crisis exacerbated by merciless US sanctions. The February legislative elections recorded the lowest turnout of any elections since the 1979 revolution in Iran, causing authorities to fear that people were incensed at the government. The nationwide turnout was announced to be 43%, while in Tehran, only 22% of eligible voters cast their ballots. Now the leadership is hoping that the prospect of a woman being elected as the nation’s chief executive may inspire more Iranians to vote in next year’s polls, reinvigorating the state’s legitimacy. A lecturer in Islamic civilizations at Dublin’s Trinity College and expert on women studies said the announcement was a “welcome acknowledgment of gender equality.” “The Guardian Council’s announcement on women and presidential candidacy is as much political strategy as it is a substantial corrective to past injustice. Of course, women should be eligible to run in presidential elections in Iran and should have equal access to leadership positions on par with their male peers,” said Professor Roja Fazaeli.  See “Iran clears path for women to run for president,” Kourosh Ziabari, Asia Times, October 16, 2020.

Usually a power saw is used to cut of the four fingers through the palm, leaving just a stub of a hand and the thumb.  Not only this a grotesque punishment, it makes it impossible to use a hand—you can’t even control a moped or motorcycle for example.  “Iran sentences 3 more men to amputation for ‘stealing,’ reviving once-rare Islamic law,” Hollie McKay, Fox News, October 15, 2020.

“Spain Extradites Corrupt Iranian Banker in “First of its Kind” Case in Europe,” James Warren, The Olive Press, October 15, 2020.

 “Pompeo Claps Back at Iran’s Khamenei Over Nuclear Threat,” Algemeiner, October 15, 2020.

“Iran Manages to Ovehaul Several Old Planes to Back Its Ageing Avilation Fleet,” Trend News Agency, Aviation Pros, October 15, 2020.

No.  I’m not sure why Atlantic Council even asks.  This is an Israeli author, really commenting on how Iran does not fulfill rights laid out in its constitution, and the tease the Regime gives every election of a possible female president—but Iranian women have given up hope on this.  See “Will Iran let a woman run for president in 2021?,” Raz Zimmt, IranSource , Atlantic Council, October 15, 2020.

Quote of the Day.  Iran’s judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi said it was “strictly forbidden to attack the accused, even if they are thugs.”  See “Iran: Judicial authority bans ‘torture’,” Al Jazeera, October 15, 2020.  “Iran’s judicial authority on Thursday issued an order banning torture, the use of “forced confessions”, solitary confinement, illegal police detentions, and other violations of defendants’ rights. The “document on judicial security” was signed by Iran’s judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi and released by Mizan Online, the authority’s news agency. It also stressed the “transparency” of the judicial process, including the right to freely choose a lawyer and “the principle of the presumption of innocence”. It also guaranteed “consular access” for foreign nationals. Iran is regularly accused by the United Nations, several Western countries, rights organisations and Iranian lawyers of flouting the principles that Raisi said he wants to see respected. The publication of the charter comes a week after controversy was sparked by videos posted on social media showing police officers beating detainees in pick-up trucks in the middle of a street. In the videos, apparently filmed in Tehran, the detainees are also made to apologise for the “mistakes” they say they have made.”

“Husband: Iran Denying Jailed Hunger Striker Hospital Treatment Out of Malice,” Michael Lipin and Ramin Haghjoo, VOA, October 15, 2020.

So, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed with the U.S. to make this deal happen.  “Two Americans held hostage by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen were freed on Wednesday as part of a U.S.-backed trade that returned more than 200 of the group’s loyalists to the fractured Middle East country, according to U.S. and Saudi officials. A Royal Oman Air Force plane carrying the two Americans and the remains of a third flew out of Yemen’s Houthi-controlled capital of Sana’a, hours after the jet and a companion flight brought the militants back to the country following years stuck in Oman. The deal secured freedom for Sandra Loli, an American humanitarian worker held hostage by the Houthis for 16 months, and Mikael Gidada, a U.S. businessman held for more than a year, said Kash Patel, a deputy assistant to President Trump who worked on the deal. The pact also included the return of the remains of Bilal Fateen, a third American who had been held by the Houthis. U.S. officials provided only limited information on the three Americans, but said they worked urgently to secure the deal because Ms. Loli’s health was in decline. The deal also included delivery of medical aid for Yemen. Saudi officials said they reluctantly backed the deal, which they said would permit dozens of Houthi militants trained on advanced drones and missiles to return to the battle zone. Mr. Patel said the U.S. worked to ensure that Houthis returning to Yemen didn’t pose a major risk.”  See “Two Americans Held Hostage by Iran-Backed Forces in Yemen Freed in Trade,” Dion Nissenbaum, Wall Street Journal, October 14, 2020.

279 died on Tuesday.  “Iran virus death toll hits record high, 3rd time in a week,” Amir Vahdat and Samya Kullab, AP, October 14, 2020.

Ask—what steps by the government are needed to sell pistachios?  Otherwise the crop will be lost for a second year.  “Iranian Pistachio Farmers’ Livelihood in Danger,” Collin Jason, Iran Focus, October 14, 2020.

The IMF doesn’t say in this article why Iran’s economy will grow 3.2% in 2021, which is an unusual number because Iran is underwater right now.  I say it is the purchase of oil by China.  “IMF Predicts Iran Economy to Return to Growth in 2021,” Financial Tribune, October 14, 2020.

“Iran’s Sanction Busting Pipeline Is Just Months From Completion,” Simon Watkins, OilPrice.com, October 14, 2020.  Again, thank you China.  “Last week, though, it was confirmed by the Petroleum Engineering and Development Company (PEDEC) that the first phase of the game-changing Goreh-Jask oil pipeline project will come on stream by the end of the current Iranian calendar year (ending on 20 March, 2021). Specifically, according to PEDEC’s Goreh-Jask pipeline project director, Ali Jafarzadeh, the testing of the pumping houses and the final terminal will begin within the next two months and end in early February. After that, the first phase of the pipeline’s operations will begin, with the capacity to transfer 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) of light, heavy, and ultra-heavy crude oil through the 1,100 km-long, 46 inch diameter pipeline that runs from the Goreh oil terminal in the north-west Bushehr Province to Mobarak Mount in the western Jask region along the Sea of Oman. This will have involved the construction and deployment of 83 42-inch valves relating to the gate, control and emergency shut-off functions in the pipeline project, six smaller pipelines, five pump houses, three stations for receiving and sending pipeline pigs, 10 power stations, 400 kilometres of transmission lines, three single point moorings, subsea pipelines, and a stilling basin.”

Iran doubles down, but does not address the evidence.  “Iran slams new allegations against arrested diplomat in Belgium,” Maziar Motamedi, Al Jazeera, October 14, 2020.

“Rouhani celebrates end of Iran arms embargo,” Al Monitor, October 14, 2020.

Decisions Iran continues to make.  “Iran-China-Russia Axis Threatens US and Israeli Interests,” Douglas Fraser, The Defense Post, October 14, 2020.

“Afghanistan and Iran: From water treaty to water dispute,” Said Hashmat Sadat and Nasrat Sayed, The Interpreter, October 14, 2020.

“Iran-Backed Militias in Iraq Poised to Expand Influence,” Max Boot, CFR, October 13, 2020.

Three cases of suicides by hanging in impoverished areas in Iran, and here is a very sad case.  “Iran in shock after 11-year-old boy commits suicide over poverty,” Al Monitor, October 13, 2020.

“Iran militias replace ancient Syria street names with Shia figures,” Middle East Monitor, October 13, 2020.

“Iran’s next president may be a military man,” Bobby Ghosh, Gulf News, October 13, 2020.

272 yesterday.  “Iran shatters its single-day record for virus deaths, cases,” Amir Vahdat, AP, October 12, 2020.

“Iranian tanker departs for Persian Gulf carrying Venezuelan heavy oil,” Hellenic Shipping News, October 12, 2020.

“Iran and Iraq Reach Deal to Release Trapped Energy Payments,” Golnar Motevalli, Bloomberg, October 12, 2020.

“Iran’s evolving position in the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict,” Mohammed Al-Sulami, op-ed, Arab News, October 12, 2020.