Iran’s nuclear weapons program and the JCPOA are very much part of the reason to create this blog, as regular readers know or if you select the tabs on the blog to read about its history. Here is a story at the start of the Biden Administration laying out some of the difficulties of treating with Iran through the JCPOA—the authors say “ Reviving the JCPOA will ensure either the emergence of a nuclear Iran or a desperate war to stop it.” See “The Case Against the Iran Deal,” Michael Oren and Yossi Klein Halevi, The Atlantic, January 21, 2021.
It’s not Iran’s responsibility, it is apparently the responsibility of the U.S. Shirking responsibility for one’s actions. “Iran’s Rouhani says “ball in U.S. court” over nuclear dispute,” Parisa Hafezi, Reuters, January 20, 2021.
“Iranian Rights Groups Call on Khamenei to Allow Purchase of U.S. and UK COVID-19 Vaccines,” Center for Human Rights in Iran, January 20, 2021.
Let’s compare how Kaveh Afrasiabi is treated during detention and how Iran treats hostages. “Tehran Denounces ‘Hostage Taking’ After Iranian Accused Of Being Agent Arrested in U.S.,” RFE/RL, January 20, 2021.
FM is heading to Azerbaijan, Russia, Armenia, and Georgia. “Iran’s Foreign Minister to visit Armenia next week,” Public Radio of Armenia, January 20, 2021.
Uh oh. If you’re a political scientist who is on the Iran Government payroll, you should tell others who is paying your salary. Otherwise you probably won’t be a supposedly unbiased commentator again or teach again at a college. The other really interesting thing here is that the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of NY has emails from the defendant, Kaveh Lotfolah Afrasiabi, one of which is to Foreign Minister Javad Zarif himself about these payments. See “Political Scientist Author Charged With Acting As An Unregistered Agent Of The Iranian Government,” Press Release, Department of Justice Office of Public Affairs, Tuesday, January 19, 2021. The FM will, as is his practice, describe the email as a fabrication. See also “Political scientist accused of secretly working for Iran,” Alanna Durkin Richer, AP, January 19, 2021. This story reminds other political scientists about objectivity and openness and bias.
Not “in the news” today, but I’m posting this in the news section because it just came out, and is part of the long-standing historically unjustified position of the IRI to this day. See “The Iran Coup That Never Dies,” RayTakeyh, Orbis, Winter Issue 2021, released January 19, 2021. Here is the “Abstract: The 1953 coup in Iran that toppled the nationalist Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq stands as one of the most controversial episodes of the Cold War. It is often referred to as the original sin where U.S. meddling poisoned relations between the two sides and even made the Islamist revolution of 1979 possible. But recent evidence suggests that America’s role in the coup was a minor one and the key actors determining the course of events were the Iranians themselves. It was Iranian generals, clerics and everyday citizens who put an end to Mossadeq’s premiership. All the Western lamentations aside, this was very much an Iranian affair.” See https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0030438720300697 for the article.
Iran leads the world by far in dues owed to the United Nations. Diplomats who attend Iran-sponsored seminars and events in NYC need to remember this (peer pressure can have some affect). Iran by far tops the list and needs to pay over $16 million. See “UN chief says 9 African nations, Iran in arrears on UN dues,” Everything Lubbock, January 18, 2021.
And then they lost their vote. “The UN charter calls for such a voting rights suspension for countries whose arrears equal or surpass the amount of the contributions due from them to UN coffers in the previous two years” See “Iran, six other nations lose right to vote in UNGA over unpaid dues,” Business Standard, January 19, 2021. Note the article records that Iran could not prove to the UN that it was incapable of paying, and that Iran’s blaming U.S. sanctions for blocking the Islamic Republic from paying its required contribution to the UN was also not convincing to the U.N. Iran has the money. “Iran, Turkey block rivals from joining U.N. disarmament talks,” Emma Farge, Reuters, January 19, 2021.
“Iran’s military kicked off a ground forces drill on Tuesday along the coast of the Gulf of Oman, state TV reported, the latest in a series of snap exercises that the country is holding amid escalating tensions over its nuclear program and Washington’s pressure campaign against Tehran. According to the report, commando units and airborne infantry were participating in the annual exercise, along with fighter jets, helicopters and military transport aircraft. Iran’s National Army chief Abdolrahim Mousavi was overseeing the drill.” Not IRGC. See “Iran Kicks Off Ground Forces Drill on Coast of Gulf of Oman,” Military.com, The Canadian Press, January 19, 2021.
“Iran Reportedly Seizes 45K Bitcoin Mining Machines After Closure of Illegal Operations,” Sebastian Sinclair, Yahoo Finance, January 18, 2021. And a similar article reminding us that you reap what you sow—bitcoin production added to brownouts and blackouts. “The Iranian police have confiscated some 45,000 bitcoin mining machines that were illegally using subsidized electricity.” See “Iran Seizes Thousands Of Illicit Bitcoin Mining Machines,” January 18, 2021.
“Iran buys 16.8 mln doses of COVID-19 vaccines from COVAX: report,” Xinhua, January 18, 2021.
Notice how Russia seems to have Iran’s back in this article, only criticizing Israel for the conflict in Syria, and not asking anything of Iran. This is one of the factors not resulting in Iran acting as a normal country. See “Russia’s FM: Syria must not be an Israel-Iran battlefield,” Jerusalem Post, January 18, 2021.
It is fine for Al Thani to call for discussions, but will Qatar or Iran actually be willing to give anything up? The basis for this call by Qatar is the recent partial reconciliation with Saudi Arabia in which Qatar gave up nothing according to media accounts. “Qatar Says It’s Time Gulf Arabs Start Talks with Iran,” Simone Foxman, Bloomberg, January 18, 2021.
Remember, in every public statement and any negotiations, the first words from the U.S. representative each time should be “Release the Americans before anything else is discussed. We’re waiting.” Now Iranian-American Emad Shargi was summoned to a Tehran court Nov. 30 and informed he was convicted of espionage without a trial and sentenced to 10 years. Three other Iranian-Americans are held hostage: Siamak Namazi, his aged father, Baquer, and Morad Tahbaz. The hostage taking continues. See “Iran jails U.S. businessman, possibly jeopardizing Biden’s plans for diplomacy with Tehran,” Dan De Luce, NBC, January 17, 2021.
This reads almost like a headline out of The Onion. “Iran asks watchdog not to publish ‘unnecessary’ nuclear details,” AP, Stars and Stripes, January 17, 2021.
There’s good reason(s) to not let Iran’s diplomats have the same free reign that other countries’ diplomats have on U.S. soil. And, under international law, host countries (and countries that host international forums) have every right and legal authority to limit such things as diplomatic travel due to national security, espionage, and worse. This news article does not explain that or detail Iran’s past actions in NYC, D.C., etc. “Iran warns Washington to stop “illegal actions” against diplomats on U.S. soil,” Xinhua, January 17, 2021.
“Iran fires long-range missiles into Indian Ocean in military drill – media,” Reuters, January 16, 2021.
One ballistic missile blew up on contact with the ocean just 20 miles from a cargo ship, exploding shrapnel widely. “Iranian missiles land 100 miles from US aircraft carrier strike group in Indian Ocean,” Arab News, January 16, 2021.
To assist Shia in West African countries, but also to spread Revolution sympathy, etc. “Iran’s Red Crescent chief visits health centers in Africa,” Mehr, January 16, 2021.
Official numbers are 96 died nationwide Friday. “Iran reveals COVID-19 data for January 16,” MENAFA, January 16, 2021.
This won’t end up benefiting Kazakhstan. “Official urges setting up Iran-Kazakhstan joint Security WG,” Mehr, January 16, 2021.
Setting aside that the Democrats decried Trump officials from talking to Russia before the president was sworn in, note the point about this story is that Biden’s officials have already begun talking with Iran on some sort of return to the 2015 JCPOA, and have updated Israel. The Mossad chief Cohen was just in D.C. talking to Sec. Pompeo, and is mentioned in this article as having talks in D.C. about the Biden initial plans. “Report: Biden team already holding talks with Iran on US return to nuclear deal,” Times of Israel, January 16, 2021.
“Iranian Redeployment in Iraq Behind Israel’s Alleged Syria Strike, Sources Say,” Yaniv Kubovich, Haaertz, January 16, 2021.
In the central dessert, a day after the at-sea short-range missile tests. “Iran tests ballistic missiles, drones in military exercise, state TV says,” Reuters, January 15, 2021.
“Iran tests suicide drones that look similar to those used in Saudi attacks,” Jon Gambrell, AP, Defense News, January 15, 2021.
“Iran Deems Signal ‘Criminal Content,’ Removes From Local App Stores,” Golnaz Esfandiari, RFE/RL, January 15, 2021.
“‘Tactical cooperation’ marks Iran-al-Qeda ties, experts say,” The Arab Weekly, January 15, 2021.
An open message to Iran—Il Milano is where the Quds Force was to blow up the entire restaurant, including the Saudi Ambassador to the U.S. several years ago. So now this story—“Earlier this week, Israeli warplanes apparently targeted positions and arms depots of Iran-backed forces in Syria. At least 57 fighters were killed and dozens of others wounded. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria is nothing new. But what is new about this episode is how those strikes were carried out. A senior U.S. intelligence official with knowledge of the attack told The Associated Press that the airstrikes were carried out with intelligence provided by the United States. The official said the strikes targeted a series of warehouses in Syria that were being used in a pipeline to store and stage Iranian weapons, as well as serving as a pipeline for components supporting Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. official, who requested anonymity to speak about the matter, said U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discussed Tuesday’s airstrike with Yossi Cohen, chief of Israel’s spy agency Mossad, at a public meeting in the popular Washington restaurant Café Milano on Monday. This series of events is significant for two reasons. Not only is it a rare incidence of publicized cooperation between the two countries over choosing targets in Syria, but it comes at a fraught moment in U.S. foreign policy. American public cooperation with this latest Israeli airstrike came after a bitter presidential election, punctuated by a deadly siege of the Capitol and all while the incoming Biden transition team has complained of a lack of cooperation by Trump’s Pentagon. Pompeo on Tuesday accused Iran of having secret ties with the al-Qaida network and imposed new sanctions on several senior Iranian officials. Pompeo’s comments come just a week before the Trump administration leaves office and appeared aimed at Biden’s stated desire to resume negotiations with Iran over the 2015 nuclear deal. Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018. In a speech to the National Press Club just, Pompeo attacked Iran for alleged secret ties with al-Qaida, citing newly declassified intelligence suggesting Tehran harbored the group’s No. 2, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, who was killed in August, reportedly by Israeli agents.” Fascinating. See “In waning days, Trump shakes up CENTCOM to increase Arab-Israeli efforts against Iran,” Howard Altman, Military Times, January 15, 2021.
So missiles in Lebanon, and in Yemen missiles already and now drones. That looks like a Shia Crescent. “Iran has apparently sent its Houthi allies in Yemen “suicide drones” capable of reaching Israel or striking other U.S., Saudi or Gulf targets within a 2,000-kilometer (1,240-mile) range, Newsweek reported on Thursday.” They are called “Shahed-136 loitering munitions, known as “suicide drones,” deployed to the northern Yemeni province of Al-Jawf, which is controlled by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.” And “The drones are believed to have an effective range of 2,000 to 2,200 kilometers (1,240 to 1,370 miles), putting the Red Sea – a vital shipping route for oil transit that links the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean – within striking distance.” See the article at “Iran Sent Yemen’s Houthi Rebels ‘Suicide Drones’ That Can Reach Israel, Report Says,” Haaertz, January 14, 2021.
This story is shocking but true. “Khamenei deprives Iranian people of COVID-19 vaccines,” US Embassy in Georgia, January 14, 2021. And a related story that I missed in November, “Iran’s Khamenei funds terrorism over COVID-19 aid workers,” ShareAmerica, November 16, 2020.
“Iran, Pakistan Discuss Closer Trade Cooperation,” Emad Askarieh, IFP, January 14, 2021.
“Turkey tells UN that drug traffickers were involved in kidnapping of Habib Chaab by Iranian intelligence,” Nrdic Monitor, January 14, 2021.
Good article, but fails to include important point that Iran also uses commercial lines as human shields. “Year after Ukrainian plane downed by Iran, civilian airliners are still at risk,” Elizabeth Palmer, CBS, January 14, 2021.
A response to the NYT. “Iran: The Land of Love and Innocence?,” Aylin Sedighi-Gabbaizadeh, Times of Israel, January 14, 2021.
“Iran Is Assembling Gear Able to Produce Key Nuclear-Weapons Material,” Laurence Norman, Wall Street Journal, January 13, 2021. “Iran has taken a new step toward possible atomic-weapons production, United Nations inspectors said in a confidential report, starting work on an assembly line to manufacture a key material at the core of nuclear warheads and raising the stakes in Tehran’s standoff with Washington ahead of President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration. The International Atomic Energy Agency, in a report for member states viewed Wednesday by The Wall Street Journal, said Iran told the watchdog that it would install equipment to produce uranium metal at a site in Isfahan over the next four to five months. Uranium metal can be used to build the core of a nuclear weapon. The IAEA said that in January 2019, Iran informed the agency it intended to produce more advanced fuel for its Tehran Research Reactor. After being repeatedly pressed by the agency, it set out a plan in mid-December saying it would make uranium metal to make an advanced fuel for the Tehran reactor. Iran hasn’t made uranium metal so far, senior Western officials said. The IAEA said Tehran had given it no timeline for when it would do so. Still, the development brings Iran closer to crossing the line between nuclear operations with a potential civilian use, such as enriching nuclear fuel for power-generating reactors, and nuclear-weapons work, something it has long denied ever carrying out.”
“Iranian Bill Seeks to Destroy Israel by 2041, Avenge Soleimani,” KMJN, January 13, 2021. “Iran is proposing legislation seeking to destroy Israel in 20 years, according to The Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP). The bill introduced to the Iranian parliament lists the goal of eliminating Israel by 2041 and the four main goals of the legislation include, per the report: Exact “decisive act of revenge” on the U.S. for the killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani and evicting the U.S. from the Middle East. Continue Soleimani’s mission of destroying Israel. Counter alleged economic sanctions, which is deemed “terrorism.” Install a defiant foreign policy. The bill, which the think tank predicts will be passed in weeks, brands Israel an “aggressor Zionist regime” as a threat to Iran, vowing to ramp up military operations against Israel and the U.S. The bill lists Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and groups in the Gaza Strip as potential allies in the above stated goals, The Washington Free Beacon reported. Also, Iran will seek trade relations with U.S. antagonists China, Russia, and Venezuela, per the reports.”
This news story reflects the environmental impact of the poor choices to pursue an illegtimate form or economic trading. “The push by many in Iran to establish the country as a mecca for crypto miners may be having some unintended environmental consequences. According to a Bloomberg report, the energy requirements of Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto mining in Iran coupled with the demand for heat in an exceptionally cold winter have contributed to a natural gas shortage, forcing power plants to allegedly burn “low-grade fuel oils” to meet the country’s electrical needs. The result has been “thick layers of toxic smog” across many Iranian cities and blackouts as some power plants have closed.” See “Crypto mining allegedly worsening air pollution in Iran,” Turner Wright, Coin Telegraph, January 13, 2021.
The U.S. has for years avoided sanctioning the Leader’s EIKO so that he would still have something, to try to entice him to treaty. “The Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order (EIKO) and Astan Quds Razavi (AQR), allegedly enabled Iran’s elite to “control large portions of the Iranian economy, including assets seized from political dissidents and religious minorities,” the agency said in a statement. “EIKO has systematically violated the rights of dissidents by confiscating land and property from opponents of the regime, including political opponents, religious minorities, and exiled Iranians,” the U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement.” See “US Targets Foundations Controlled by Iran’s Supreme Leader,” VOA, January 13, 2021.
First, there is no other country at present for which this debate exists. Second, Iran insists their program is peaceful. But still, we see a story like this which indicates other countries are questioning Iran’s actions. “Ex-intel, atomic chiefs: Why are there so many Iran nuke estimates?,” Yonah Jeremy Bob, Jerusalem Post, January 12, 2021.
We’ll see if this call drives Iran to negotiate. Hasn’t yet. Is something to throw to the Biden team, or to stall. But it is issued by Ali Akbar Velayati, the top foreign policy adviser to the Supreme Leader, and someone who has more power than the President. See “Iran Calls for Future Nuclear Talks to Drop Sanctions ‘Snapback’,” Patrick Sykes, Bloomberg, January 12, 2021.
“Pompeo, in Tuesday speech, to accuse Iran of al Qaeda links: sources,” Humeyra Pamuk and Matt Spetalnick, Metro, January 12, 2021.
Though Iran earlier claimed said the SK vessel was seized because of any environmental emergency, it now move the ship (like a person/hostage) into the jurisdiction of the Iran’s courts. See “Iran tells S. Korea not to politicise seizure of tanker,” Straits Times, January 12, 2021.
“Pompeo says Al Qaeda has new home base in Iran,” Reuters, January 12, 2021.
“Iran, Iraq to increase trade to 20 bln USD annually: Iranian official,” Xinhua, January 12, 2021.
“Iran: Facebook deletes Press TV page,” DW, January 12, 2021.
“Iran, Cuba, Under U.S. Sanctions, Team Up for Covid-19 Vaccine Trials,” Sune Engel Rasmussen and Aresu Eqbali, Wall Street Journal January 12, 2021.
98 official number of deaths on Monday. The real toll is 3-4 times higher. “Iran reveals COVID-19 data for January 12,” Elnur Baghishov, MENAFN, January 12, 2021.
Ah, an opportunity to mention that the crew of the SK ship are being held hostage, not just the ship. “Negotiations continue between South Korea and Iran over release of tanker,” Arab News, January 12, 2021.
“Iran Commissions Its Massive Oil Tanker Turned Sea Base Into Service,” Thomas Newdick, The Drive, January 12, 2021.
Ironic given the following story (and on the same day) on PMUs in Iraq. “No country has right to intervene in Cuba’s internal affairs, says Iran’s Foreign Ministry.” See “Iran slams US move to rename Cuba to terror list,” Bilal Guler, AA, January 12, 2021.
There are only a few countries in the world where the paramilitary units of another country have seemingly free reign. “Pro-Iran militias remain Iraqi PM Al-Kadhimi’s biggest challenge,” Osama Al-Sharif, Arab News, January 12, 2021.