Month: January 2021

The very man who inspired this blog makes a statement.  “Kissinger: Return to Iran deal could spark Middle East nuclear arms race,” Lahav Harkov, Jerusalem Post, January 11, 2021. “The new US administration should not return to the spirit of the Iran deal, which could spark an arms race in the Middle East, former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger said Monday at a Jewish People Policy Institute online conference. He criticized the 2015 Iran deal, which President Donald Trump left in 2018. President-elect Joe Biden seeks to return to it if Iran agrees to comply again with the agreement’s limitations on its nuclear program. “We should not fool ourselves,” the 97-year-old diplomat, consultant and author said. “I don’t believe that the spirit [of the Iran deal], with a time limit and so many escape clauses, will do anything other than bring nuclear weapons all over the Middle East and therefore create a situation of latent tension that sooner or later will break out.” The current leaders in Iran “don’t seem to find it possible to give up this combination of Islamist imperialism and threat,” Kissinger said. “The test case is the evolution of nuclear capacities in Iran, if these can be avoided.” “I do not say we shouldn’t talk to them,” he added. Dennis Ross, a former adviser to presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, interviewed Kissinger at the JPPI farewell event for its founding director, Avinoam Bar-Yosef. Ross asked Kissinger what he would advise Biden and his administration to do to take advantage of the Abraham Accords, in which four Arab states normalized ties with Israel. “We should not give up on what has recently been achieved in these agreements between the Arab world and the Israeli world,” he said. “I would tell the incoming administration that we are on a good course.” The accords “have opened a window of opportunity for a new Middle East,” Kissinger said. “Arab countries understood that they could not survive in constant tension with parts of the West and with Israel, so they decided they had to take care of themselves.” Normalizations with Israel show that the four states taking part “have come to the conclusion that their national interests transcend their ideological interests,” said the secretary of state and national security advisor to presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford in the 1970s. “So they have decided, and Israel has advocated, that they should pursue their interests and come together, and they will take into account Arab concerns where they clash.” That idea “has worked out very well,” Kissinger said, adding that he always opposed the idea of finding “all-out solutions” to peace in the Middle East, advocating for the US “to work out the solutions that we can because they can build on themselves.” The Palestinians need to give up on their “ultimate aims” and look for possible interim achievements, Kissinger said.”

“Iran: 33,000 People Die Annually Due To Air Pollution – OpEd,” Hassan Mahmoudi, Eurasia Review, January 11, 2021.

“Claims by Hamas about $22 million from Soleimani sparks outrage in Iran,” Michael Segall, Cleveland Jewish News, January 11, 2021.

“Iran: Foreign Oil Firms Must Accept New Terms To Work In Country,” Tsvetana Paraskova, OilPrice.com, January 11, 2021.

From $40B to about $20B, per the governor of the Iranian Central Bank, Abdolnaser Hemmati.  See “U.S. Sanctions Halve Iran’s Oil Revenues,” Tsvetana Paraskova, OilPrice.com, January 11, 2021.

“Iran Cancels Pfizer Order After Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei Bans Vaccines From UK And US Calling Them ‘Untrustworthy’,” Swarajya, January 11, 2021.

What this story does not delve into is the relationship between Iran and Cuba.  “Trump administration puts Cuba on state-sponsor-of-terror list alongside Iran, Syria and North Korea,” AP, Market Watch, January 11, 2021.

“U.S. to Designate Iran-Backed Houthis in Yemen as Terrorist Group,” Sune Engel Rasmussen, Wall Street Journal, January 11, 2021.

Quotes of the Day:  “Cameron Khansarinia, the Policy Director for the National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI), a nonpartisan organization of Iranian-Americans, told The Jerusalem Post on Saturday that “while most athletes fear the further cancellation of sporting events due to the COVID-19 pandemic, athletes in Iran fear being murdered by the Islamic Republic. After murdering champion wrestler Navid Afkari, the criminal regime occupying Iran intends to put fellow wrestler Mehdi Ali Hosseini to death.” Khansarinia continued that “the International Olympic Committee has as yet refused to take any serious actions against the regime in Tehran for its bloody assault against athletes, despite a coordinated campaign by Iranian athletic champions. The regime should be banned from all Olympic and international sports activities until it stops murdering athletes and lifts its gender apartheid laws towards female athletes and fans. The disregard for the lives of Iranians shown by international organizations including the IOC has removed any and all of their legitimacy as humanitarian bodies.” The Post sent press queries on Saturday to the IOC and United World Wrestling (UWW). Mariam Memarsadeghi, an Iranian-American expert on human rights in the Islamic Republic and leading proponent for a democratic Iran, told The Jerusalem Post: “Khamenei is ramping up executions, foreign kidnappings and assassinations, taking of foreign hostages, and torture in the dungeon to try and repress his way out of the mounting failures and crises inherent to his ideological regime.” She added that “He is testing the will of the Free World. The Biden administration and Europe will do him a big favor if they go back to the Iran Deal and business as usual.””  See “Iran’s regime to execute another champion wrestler,” Benjamin Weinthal, Jerusalem Post, January 10, 2021.

“New Bill Allows Guardian Council to Assess Iran Presidential Candidates’ Plans,” Tasnim, January, 10, 2021.

“Twitter removes Iran’s top leader Khamenei’s vaccine tweet for ‘violating’ rules,” Livemint, January 10 2021.

Iran has set a deadline of Feb. 21.  “Iran will expel U.N. nuclear inspectors unless sanctions are lifted: lawmaker,” Reuters, January 9, 2021.

“AEOI: Iran ranks among 5 manufacturers of high-power lasers in world,” MENAFN, January 9, 2021.

“Iran bans import of UK and US Covid-19 vaccines, saying they’re ‘completely untrustworthy’,” France 24, January 9, 2021.

So the Leader is threatening incoming President Biden.  “‘Iran to Expel IAEA Inspectors on Feb. 21 If US Sanctions Not Lifted’,” IFP, January 9, 2021.

Iran has set a deadline of Jan. 21.  “Iran will expel U.N. nuclear inspectors unless sanctions are lifted: lawmaker,” Reuters, January 9, 2021.

No Pfizer or Moderna or AstraZeneca for Iranian citizens.  “Iran leader bans COVID vaccines from UK and US,” DW, January 8, 2021.

“Iran’s Revolutionary Guards unveil underground missile base in Gulf: state media,” Reuters, January 8, 2021.

“5 nations want Iran to deliver justice on downed plane,” AP, January 8, 2021.

Three thoughts.  Syria will still have difficulty convincing Hamas to return to the Syrian orbit since the “regime arrested some Hamas members who remained in Syrian territories and confiscated their properties and the wider movement’s assets.”  Second, note that Quds Force head Ghanni is nowhere to be seen in this story, he is not very effective.  Last, isn’t Nasrallah still hiding in Iran?  See “Iran, Hezbollah lead mediation to restore Hamas-Damascus ties,” Ahmad Abu Amer, Al Monitor, January 8, 2021.

No surprise with this statement.  “Iran President Says Western Democracy “Fragile” After US Capitol Siege,” WorldAgence France-Presse, NDTV, January 7, 2021.

“Iran in Africa: Ideology comes at the expense of diplomacy and business,” Sara Saïdi, The Africa Report, January 7, 2021.

A reminder that Iran said they had performed retribution for the killing of Soleimani when they shot 15 missiles at U.S. troops at Iraqi bases—10 missiles hit al-Asad base, one hit Erbil International Airport, and four failed in flight.  “Exclusive: How the Space Force foiled an Iranian missile attack with a critical early warning,” Nathan Strout, C4ISRNET, January 7, 2021.  And a year ago, “Iran signaled Tuesday night that there will be no more strikes targeting U.S. troops unless the U.S retaliates.”  So why I am stressing this?  Because a year later in January 2021 Iran is talking again about retaliation for Soleimani.  They can’t keep their word on killing!  See “No US casualties in Iran missile strike, preliminary reports say,” Shawn Snow and Howard Altman, Military Times, January 7, 2020.

Wednesday 103 died.  “103 deaths, 6,360 infections in 24h,” Mehr, January 7, 2021.

“Iran Hasn’t Said a Word About Its New Warship. That’s Suspicious,” Kyle Mizokami, Popular Mechanics, January 7, 2021.

“Iranian ship arrives at Venezuelan port, data shows,” KFGO, Thomson Reuters, January 7, 2021.

“Iran can “easily” enrich uranium to 90 pct purity: nuke spokesman,” Xinhua, January 7, 2021.

“Iran Refuses To Negotiate Korean Fuel Tanker Release,” Irina Slav, OilPrice.com, January 7, 2021.

“Iran claims case of UIA plane crash completed,” Ukrinform, January 6, 2021.

We go sideways to report on what Qatar and Saudi Arabia have just done, enlightening the regular news from Iran’s leadership.  “Qatar says deal to end Gulf crisis will not change its ties with Iran,” Andrew England, Financial Times, January 6, 2021.

They, including Hatami, still won’t say what the evidence is.  “Iran Has Strong Evidence of Israeli Role in Scientist’s Assassination: Defense Minister,” Tasnim, January 6, 2021.

Notice the picture of the unhappy family.  “Businessman Sanctioned By U.S. Over Ties To Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force,” Audrey Everist and Samuel Rubenfeld, Kharon, January 6, 2021.

“Spate of Attacks on Ships In Middle East Points to Iran-Backed Group,” H.I. Sutton, USNI News, January 6, 2021.

“In Beirut, a bronze bust of Iran general sparks controversy,” Sarah El Deeb, The Tribune, January 6, 2021.  The unveiling of a large statue of Soleimani “has sparked indignation among many … to lambast the celebration of a foreign military leader in Lebanon’s capital.” … The bronze bust about 3 meters (10 feet) high is located in a roundabout on a street named for the Iranian general and is linked to a highway named after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini — a reflection of growing Iranian influence in Lebanon. Giant posters of Soleimani were also installed along the airport highway and in streets and neighborhoods allied with Hezbollah, in some instances sparking angry reactions from locals. In the eastern Bekaa highway to the Brital area, unidentified men torched a billboard of Soleimani on Sunday, according to the local LBC TV channel. The following day, other portraits of Soleimani were burned north of Beirut in Nahr al-Kalb by men who brandished the portraits of Christian leader Bachir Gemayl, who was assassinated in 1982.”

“Cut Off Petty Thieves’ Hands, Iranian MP Suggests,” Radio Farda, January 6, 2021.

A disappointment to many countries.  “Qatar says deal to end Gulf crisis will not change its ties with Iran,” Andrew England, Financial Times, January 6, 2021.

“Iran Just Fired Its Sidewinder Missile Clone From A Drone,” Thomas Newdick, The War Zone, January 6, 2021.

Two developments.  First, the SK government apparently believes [sarcasm here] the IRGC version of events because “Seoul dispatched an acclaimed anti-piracy unit to the Strait of Hormuz following the tanker’s seizure. The Cheonghae Unit, which includes South Korean special forces, arrived in the strait on Tuesday aboard the 5,000-ton destroyer Choi Yong, according to the South Korean defense ministry.”  Second, the SK business apparently believes [sarcasm here] the IRGC version of events because “the Hankuk Chemi’s owner said it was in contact with the South Korean consulate in Tehran and expected more information later in the day. The company added that it has asked its protection and indemnity insurance (P&I) club to investigate the seizure. The insurance club is expected to dispatch an investigator to Iran to check on the safety of the crew and to examine Iran’s claim that the tanker was seized due to environmental contamination.”  See “Armed Iranian troops boarded South Korean tanker, ship’s owner says,” Jake Kwon, Gawon Bae, and Zamira Rahim, CNN. January 5, 2021.

Iran says the SK ship was leaking oil.  The pictures of the seizure don’t show any oil streak or sheen.  We all look forward to hearing more about the environmental threat of the tanker and what steps needed to contain the spill.  “Footage shows chemical tanker seized by Iranian forces,” CNN, January 5, 2021.

Reminder–Iranians who travel to Israel can be sentenced to five years in prison and of course deprived of a passport.  “Iran temporarily frees Jewish prisoner for her crime of visiting Israel,” Benjamin Weinthal, Jerusalem Post, January 5, 2021.

“Ukraine receives draft report on UIA plane crash from Iran – Kuleba,” Ukrinform, January 5, 2021.

“Iran issues Interpol notice for 48 US officials including Trump,” Maziar Motamedi, Al Jazeera, January 5, 2021.

“Accord Towards Ending Gulf Dispute Result of Qatar’s ‘Brave Resistance’: Iran’s Zarif,” Reuters, USNWR, January 5, 2021.

“Eyeing Gulf detente, Saudi Arabia opens summit with call to counter Iran threat”,” Aziz El Yaakoubi, Reuters, January 5, 2021.

“Iran Can’t Afford to Avenge the Death of Qassem Soleimani,” Bobby Ghosh, op-ed, Bloomberg, January 5, 2021.

“Saudi Arabia And Qatar Lower Tensions In U.S.-Backed Agreement,” Elena Moore, NPR, January 5, 2021.

300 anti-terror SK troops.  Wow.  “South Korea Sends Military Forces To Strait Of Hormuz After Tanker Seizure,” Irina Slav, OilPrice.com, January 5, 2021.

Classic.  IRGC speedboats order a South Korean tanker (MT Hankuk Chemi) out of the Strait of Hormuz and into Iranian waters to hold it hostage, as a SK diplomat was due to arrive in Iran to negotiate over billions of dollars in  assets frozen in Seoul.  “Iran starts 20% uranium enrichment, seizes tanker in strait,” Jon Gambrell and Isabel Debre, AP, January 4, 2021.

But remember, Iran must be bluffing, right?  20% enrichment is more than needed for electricity and cancer isotopes, and they’ve always said their program is peaceful and not aiming for nuclear weapons.  “Iran says it begins 20% uranium enrichment amid US tensions,” AP, Fox, January 4, 2021.

With thousands of Israel citizens pouring into UAE for tourism and business, UAE intel have arrested an Iranian squad preparing to kill some of them.  See “Iranian investigated in UAE for suspected terror plot against Israelis,” Jerusalem Post, January 4, 2021.

“Iran’s railway ambitions go beyond Afghanistan,” Maysam Bizaer, Atlantic Council, January 4, 2021.

“Lebanese Bristle Over Iran Commander’s Comments Regarding Hezbollah Missile Capabilities,” Dale Gavlak, VOA, January 4, 2021.

“S.Korea says reviewing planned diplomat visit to Tehran after Iran seizes tanker,” Sangmi Cha and Josh Smith, Reuters, January 4, 2021.

Drills can be pretenses for attacks on other countries, especially when 100s of drones are involved over a wide area.  “Iran Army Announces Large-Scale Drone Drill,” The Defense Post, January 4, 2021.

According to the Iran Foreign Ministry–only if SA changes, not IRI.  “Iran expresses readiness to restore ties with Saudi Arabia,” Tehran Times, January 4, 2021.

For many years Iran was silent on its arming of Hezbollah.  Now it is blatant.  “Brigadier General Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, the chief of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, had told Hizbullah’s al-Manar TV on Saturday that “all the missile capabilities that Gaza and Lebanon possess were achieved through Iran’s support.” “They are the frontline for the confrontation” against Israel, he added.”  See “Aoun Responds to Iranian General’s Remarks about Lebanon,” Naharnet, January 3, 2021.

“Iran, Siemens Bring First of Several New Gas-Fired Plants Online,” Darrell Proctor, Powermag, January 3, 2021.

We don’t read something this funny about the Quds Force too often.  “Former Mossad director Shabtai Shavit told the Post that, “the Iranians’ patience is never-ending.” Shavit said that the killing of Soleimani in January 2020 along with the assassination of Iran military nuclear program chief Mohsen Fakrhizadeh in November was “a double blow against its military activity in the Middle East” which it has not recovered from. The Mossad chief between 1989-1996 said that Esmail Ghaani who replaced Soleimani “isn’t at a level even close to the same capabilities and importance and managerial ability.” Whereas Shavit said there is a continuous debate about whether assassinations make sense, he said in the cases of Soleimani and Fakrhrizadeh, there was no doubt. “Some say they are not useful because one goes and the next one comes into line and replaces him…the level of talent of the one who entered his [Soleimani’s] shoes disproves that argument,” said the former spymaster.” Shavit’s comments about Ghanni are consistent with other reports.  See “Mossad chiefs: Iran may avenge Soleimani killing after Biden inauguration,” Yonah Jeremy Bob, Jerusalem Post, January 3, 2021.

Two comments.  First, isn’t Nasrallah still hiding underground in Tehran?  Second, notice this paragraph, and that the Supreme Leader doesn’t want to attack Jerusalem.  “A top Iranian commander said Saturday that Khamenei had given an order for Tehran-backed terror groups to destroy Haifa and Tel Aviv if “any foolishness is committed against Iran,” warning that the Islamic Republic has been working for years on developing the capabilities of its proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.”  See “A year on, Hezbollah says Iran ‘doesn’t need help’ avenging its top general,” Times of Israel, January 3, 2021.

“Iran’s Cabinet Passes Bill on Preventing Violence against Women,” IFP, January 3, 2021.

Here is the latest quote I’ve seen that the ballistic missile attacks in Iraq were supposed to be the retaliation for the killing of Soleimani, this one from Mahmoud Vaezi, the Iran president’s chief of staff.  ““In terms of the military response, you definitely know that the Islamic Republic of Iran poured missiles down on the American base involved in the assassination of martyr Soleimani. This targeted attack sent a clear message to the Americans that attacking the Islamic Republic of Iran and crossing its red lines will certainly not pass without a response,” Vaezi said in an interview with Al-Ahed News.”  See “Full pullout of U.S. from the region is main response to Soleimani assassination: Iran’s Vaezi,” Tehran Times, January 3, 2021.

“Trump, others linked to Soleimani killing ‘will not be safe on Earth,’ Iran official warns,” Dom Calicchio, Fox News, January 2, 2021.

Efficacy?  “Iran talks joint COVID-19 vaccine production with Cuba,” MENAFN, January 2, 2021.

Consider that the vaccine names Pfizer and Moderna are nowhere to be found in this article about Iran and Russia providing for their citizens.  Then consider mismanagement and corruption, and that citizens will needlessly die.  “Iran and Russia preparing meeting on coronavirus vaccines, envoy says,” TASS, January 2, 2021.

“Soleimani’s shadow: How the general’s death upended Iranian strategy in Iraq,” Suadad al-Salhy, Middle East Eye, January 2, 2021.  Best analysis I’ve read about Quds in Iraq and how the removal of Soleimani has really upset the applecart of Iran’s control and actions there.  “Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, the new commander of the Quds Force, Iran’s elite unit tasked with overseas operations, boasts none of the same qualities and appears uninterested in replicating them.  In fact, despite a tumultuous year when conflict with the United States seemed a distinct possibility, Qaani has met Iraq’s Shia leaders only a handful of times. His manner, the head of a prominent Shia political party said, resembled “an official only concerned with delivering messages and instructions”.”  Iran is having to re-evaluate and retool with the loss of Soleimani, the incoming Biden administration, and splits in the PMUs.

In 2019, the U.S. blamed Iran for several limpet mine attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.  “Iraq explosives experts working to defuse limpet mine on oil tanker,” Sydney Morning Herald, January 2, 2021.

While they’re at it, they need to follow-through and announce the names of those who killed the nuclear scientist outside of Tehran.  Iran said they had made arrests, but names have been announced.  Maybe they haven’t figured it out yet.  “Identities of assassins of Iranian general will be disclosed in Iraq,” Prensa Latina, January 2, 2021.

Consider that the vaccine names Pfizer and Moderna are nowhere to be found in this article about Iran and Russia providing for their citizens.  Then consider mismanagement and corruption, and that citizens will needlessly die.  “Iran and Russia preparing meeting on coronavirus vaccines, envoy says,” TASS, January 2, 2021.