Month: February 2021

A good reminder of the war that Iran is conducting in its Revolution, every day, and in various ways.  “Twenty-four hours of Iran’s total war in Yemen, Iraq and Syria,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, February 28, 2021.

No one in the media, at least not IFP, challenges the concept that if in a multilateral treaty if one state leaves the treaty, whether a remaining state can begin breaching various portions of the treaty against the remaining states.  (the answer in international law is No).  “Iran Reduced Commitments after US Failed to Fulfil Obligations: VP,” Iran Front Page, February 28, 2021.

Iran wants more sanctions lifted in exchange for talking.  But they just won some sanctions relief from the U.S. through South Korea, though we are awaiting to hear the terms, it is at least 1B.  “Iran Rejects Offer of Direct U.S. Nuclear Talks, Senior Diplomats Say,” Laurence Norman and Michael Gordon, Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2021.

“It was the largest ballistic missile attack against Americans ever. “It has never happened in history that a ground force has been exposed to 11 theater ballistic missiles.””  See “Who would live and who would die: The inside story of the Iranian attack on Al Asad Airbase,” David Martin and Mary Walsh, 60 Minutes, February 28, 2021.

“U.S. Says It Would Meet for Nuclear Talks With Iran, Other Powers,” Laurence Norman, Wall Street Journal, February 18, 2021.

Died on Feb. 27, officially.  But not reality.  “Iran health ministry says virus deaths cross 60,000 mark,” Arab News, February 28, 2021.

“Terrorism Ruling Presents Opportunity to Hold Tehran Accountable,” Ted Poe, op-ed, Townhall, February 27, 2021.

When there are large protests, the Regime turns off the internet so the people can’t organize and so the news can’t get out.  And so the shooting can occur.  “Internet disruption reported in southeast Iran amid unrest,” Isabel Debre, AP, February 27, 2021.  “This is Iran’s traditional response to any kind of protest,” Amir Rashidi from Miaan Group, a human rights organization that focuses on digital security in the Middle East, told The Associated Press on Saturday. “Shutting down the internet to block news and pictures getting out makes (authorities) feel more comfortable opening fire.”

At least 1B to be given to Iran by the new U.S. Administration.  What does the U.S. or the world get in return?  A SK ship taken hostage?  “US Agrees on Partial Release of Iran Assets in South Korea,” Financial Tribune, February 27, 2021.

This is part of what SK ship-hostage payment can buy.  “Iran Expects 250,000 Doses of Vaccine From China,” Asharq Al-Awsat, February 27, 2021.

“Israel stayed away from UAE arms fair ‘for fear Iran would target its delegates’,” Times of Israel, AP, February 27, 2021.

“Israel says initial assessment is Iran behind explosion on Israeli-owned ship,” Maayan Lubell, Reuters, February 27, 2021.

“U.S. targeted Iran-backed militias with seven 500-pound bombs,” David Martin, CBS, February 27, 2021.  This was in response to the Iranian militia attacks against Erbil and the Green Zone.

“US Agrees on Partial Release of Iran Assets in South Korea,” Financial Tribune, February 27, 2021.

Finally.  The U.S. tells Iran it can’t attack Erbil and fire rockets into the Baghdad Green Zone without penalty.  “EXCLUSIVE-U.S. carries out airstrike against Iranian-backed militia target in Syria, officials say,” Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart, Reuters, February 26, 2021.

Classy.  “Iran threatens to end deal with IAEA over U.S.-led push to criticize it,” Francois Murphy, Reuters, February 26, 2021.

“Explosion strikes Israeli-owned ship in Mideast amid tension,” Jon Gambrell and Isabel Debre, AP, February 26, 2021.  The MV Helios Ray, a roll-on roll-off vehicle cargo ship, had just exited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday when blasts causes two holes on port side and two holes on starboard, just above the waterline.  Sounds like limpet mines, which Iran has used in the past.

Notice that it is Brookings itself that says this.  “Biden’s decision to strike Iran’s proxies is a good start,” Ranj Alaaldin, Brookings, February 26, 2021.

“Non-Persian Mother Languages Treated as “National Security Threat” in Iran,” Center for Human Rights in Iran, February 26, 2021.

“Deadly Unrest Roils Iranian City,” Sune Engel Rasmussen and Aresu Eqbali, Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2021.

Again, a poor choice.  “Iran now holds two French nationals, possibly as bargaining chips for prisoner swaps, or to pressure European powers to grant sanctions relief.”  See “France confirms Iran has been holding tourist since May 2020,” RFI, February 25, 2021.

“Iran on Thursday said it was “unwarranted” for a United Nations investigator this week to point out inconsistencies in Iran’s explanation for the 2020 downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane. Agnes Callamard, the U.N.’s special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, said Tuesday that while she had not found concrete evidence suggesting that the plane was intentionally targeted, Iran also did not provide enough evidence to prove the incident was accidental, Reuters reported. Callamard also said Iran had not responded to her requests for more detailed information on the incident.”  See “Iran: UN investigator’s comments on downing of Ukraine plane ‘unwarranted’,” Celine Castronuovo, The Hill, February 25, 2021.

These types of stories are too rare in the news.  If Iran used its public funds as other countries, we’d see more infrastructure construction.  “Iran opens key motorway to ease traffic in five provinces,” Press TV, February 25, 2021.

“The “Arab and Muslim Union for Supporting the Resistance” is a pro-Iranian international platform seeking to advance the goals of the resistance axis against the US, Israel and their allies, says Israeli researcher Dr. Michael Barak.”  See “Report: Iran quietly increasing its reach worldwide,” Dean Shmuel Elmas, Israel Hayom, February 25, 2021.

See the video.  The military shot at protesters.  At least 10 killed.  “Iranian regime shoots fuel traders causing revolt in Saravan,” Benjamin Weinthal, Jerusalem Post, February 24, 2021.

Very well-reasoned and written.  The U.S. is not the problem in the Middle East.  “What I Learned in an Iranian Prison,” Wang Xiyue, op-ed, Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2021.

“Iran has positive signals from the Americans. It now needs to seize this opportunity,” this diplomat said.  These signals and actions are listed within the article, but also include the release of the SK billion dollars (that is a lot of money).  Will Iran act as a normal country and seize the opportunity to talk, or will it continue to spin the centrifuges and adhere to ending the snap inspections?  The ball is in the court of Leader.  My prediction is that Iran appreciates income and will do what maximizes its income for the IRGC leaders and the Leader and his cronies.  This is also consistent with Chinese and Russian positions, the free market and personal freedom not the priorities, and they probably do not believe Iran to have a nuclear weapon(s).  The wild cards are the underlying reason for the 1979 Revolution and whether the Regime will move away from them, and the pressure from the population and the youth.  See “U.S., allies respond to Iranian ‘provocations’ with studied calm,” Arshad Mohammed and John Irish, Reuters, February 24, 2021.

“The Iran nuclear deal: A springboard for a new Middle East security architecture,” Nabil Fahmy, European Leadership Network, February 24, 2021.

“Special UN rapporteur says Tehran’s explanation of 2020 incident, which killed 176, contradicts facts and technical assessments of experts.”  …  “My conclusion is that on the basis of international law, error is not a defense for Iran,” said Callamard.  See “UN expert says Iran lied about downing of Ukraine airliner,” AFP, Times of Israel, February 24, 2021.

Will the Regime demand 7B instead of just 1B?  Will the 1B go toward Iran’s UN back dues?  “South Korea Agrees To Unfreeze $1 Billion In Iranian Assets, Following Tanker Seizure By Tehran,” Dominic Dudley, Forbes, February 24, 2021.

“Twitter removes hundred of accounts tied to Iran, Russia,” Cameron Jenkins, The Hill, February 24, 2021.

“Canadian legal luminaries sign letter accusing Iranian courts’ of persecuting Baha’i faith,” Evan Dyer, CBC News, February 24, 2021.

The Biden Administration must be very careful that it is not giving Iran $7B.  If so, the dam will break.  All the hard work to push the Regime to quit taking hostages, quit terror, quit the missile program, quit pressuring Israel and UAE and Bahrain and other countries who want to establish relations for peace, quit supporting Hezbollah, quit aiding Hamas and PIJ, quit the Yemen war, quit supporting the killer regime in Syria, quit controlling Lebanese politics, quit using diplomats to intimidate and assassinate dissidents in multiple countries, quit acting liking a rogue nation, the list goes on and on.  See “Foreign ministry says Iran’s assets to be unlocked through consultations with U.S.,” Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News, February 23, 2021.

Holding a ship and its crew hostage has won rewards for Iran again.  Until South Korea and other countries stand up to Iran, it will continue to take such actions.  “Another win for Iran in South Korea deal – analysis,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, February 23, 2021.

“Mob storms south Iran governor office after border violence,” Isabel Debre, AP, Star Tribune, February 23, 2021.

“Iran producing roughly 15 kg a month of 20% enriched uranium – diplomat,” Reuters, February 23, 2021.

“Iran officially imposes curbs on U.N. nuclear inspections,” Nasser Karimi and Kiyoko Metzler, AP, February 23, 2021.

“Exclusive: ‘Perfect trips’ – Venezuela ships jet fuel to Iran in exchange for gasoline, sources say,” Deisy Buitrago and Marianna Parraga, Reuters, February 23, 2021.

Just as the U.S. offers to negotiate with Iran, the Leader allows another American to be taken hostage.  “Opinion: Iran has taken another American hostage. His ordeal strikes close to home,” Jason Rezaian, op-ed, Washington Post, February 22, 2021.

Iran says it has finished its criminal investigation but has not announced the suspects.  Hmmm.  “Iran has not yet named suspects in downing of Ukrainian plane – Yenin,” Ukinform, February 22, 2021.

Uh oh.  Choppy waters ahead.  If the U.S. allows Iran to attack it without penalty, history says Iran will keep right on doing it.  “U.S. Says It Won’t ‘Lash Out’ After Blaming Iran For Rocket Attack On U.S. Embassy In Baghdad,” RFE/RL, February 22, 2021.

Iran says it has finished its criminal investigation but has not announced the suspects.  Hmmm.  “Iran has not yet named suspects in downing of Ukrainian plane – Yenin,” Ukinform, February 22, 2021.

So John Kerry and Robert Malley met secretly with FM Zarif during the Trump Administration.  They need to why explain how this didn’t help Iran, and how it didn’t hurt America.  They can also tell us about why it is appropriate for former administration officials to act in such a way, and why this isn’t a violation of the Logan Act.  “John Kerry ‘colluded’ with Iran to undermine Trump, report says,” Evie Fordham, Fox News, February 22, 2021.

“Iran Seeks to Reroute North-South Transport Corridor to Armenia, Away From Azerbaijan,” Rahim Rahimov, Eurasia Daily Monitor, February 22, 2021.

“US seeks to extend, strengthen nuclear pact with Iran – Blinken,” Reuters, February 22, 2021.

“Iran Says Imprisoned Dervish Activist Dead After Hospitalization,” RFE/RL, February 22, 2021.

Another FDD expert provides accurate and timely information.  “A U.S.-Iran deal is ultimately possible because Iran needs money, analyst says,” Abigail Ng, CNBC, February 22, 2021.

So, note that Iran doesn’t say that it’s not talking to the U.S., only that it is not talking directly to the U.S.  “No Direct Talks Over Detained US Citizens, Iran Says,” The Media Line, February 22, 2021.

First, Erbil.  Now this. “3 rockets fall near U.S. Embassy in Baghdad,” Lara Seligman, Politico, February 22, 2021.

We don’t know how much or if part is in the form of Covid-19 shots.  “South Korea agrees to partial release of blocked Iranian money,” Maziar Motamedi, Al Jazeera, February 22, 2021.

“Absent a willingness to add to or even maintain existing sanctions, as well lacking broader efforts to tackle the clerical regime’s regional threat network, such an approach is indeed possible to prejudge: It will end in failure.”  This is speaking of the steps taken so far by Pres. Biden and his team.  See “Biden squanders leverage Trump stockpiled on Iran in pursuit of a defective nuclear deal,” Mark Dubowitz and Ben Taleblu, NBC, February 22, 2021.

“A second attack in two weeks against an area housing U.S. personnel on Monday bears all the signs of another act of violence by Iran, yet the Pentagon says it’s continuing to investigate.”  See “Pentagon Acknowledges ‘Uptick’ in Violence in Iraq, Declines to Name Iran,” Paul Shinkman, USNWR, February 22, 2021.

Pres. Erdogan is realizing losing the F-35 was too far for Turkey, and that sanctions against Iran are hurting Turkey.  The Biden Administration withdrawing the letters to the UN from the Trump Administration asking for UN sanctions under the 2015 JCPOA was the first step.  Now the ball is in Iran’s court for their first step.  “Erdogan tells Rouhani he sees window of opportunity for Iran, U.S. on sanctions,” Yahoo News, February 22, 2021.

“Absent a willingness to add to or even maintain existing sanctions, as well lacking broader efforts to tackle the clerical regime’s regional threat network, such an approach is indeed possible to prejudge: It will end in failure.”  This is speaking of the steps taken so far by Pres. Biden and his team.  See “Biden squanders leverage Trump stockpiled on Iran in pursuit of a defective nuclear deal,” Mark Dubowitz and Ben Taleblu, NBC, February 22, 2021.

“A second attack in two weeks against an area housing U.S. personnel on Monday bears all the signs of another act of violence by Iran, yet the Pentagon says it’s continuing to investigate.”  See “Pentagon Acknowledges ‘Uptick’ in Violence in Iraq, Declines to Name Iran,” Paul Shinkman, USNWR, February 22, 2021.

This 60% percentage is much higher than needed for isotopes or energy.  But remember, Iran is pledging that it will not pursue nuclear weapons.  In fact, that is what the Leader has said in his fatwa—if he will let us see the fatwa.  See “Khamenei says Iran may enrich uranium to 60% purity if needed,” Parisa Hafezi, Reuters, February 22, 2021.

“Iran’s Khamenei decrees that female cartoon characters must wear hijab,” Zachary Keyser, Jerusalem Post, February 22, 2021.  And it is a fatwa.  “Although wearing hijab in such a hypothetical situation is not required per se, observing hijab in animation is required due to the consequences of not wearing hijab.”

Iran must release all hostages belonging to any of the P5+1 states, and pledge to take no more because it will be punished for doing so, before the negotiations begin.  This hostage taking (a practice since 1979) must stop.  It is not normal for any country to hold people as pawns in international relations.  See “U.S. in Contact With Iran on Detained Americans, Biden Aide Says,” Tony Czuczka, Bloomberg, February 21, 2021.

Note two things.  First, the U.S. sanctions are forcing Iran back to the negotiating table, exactly what the U.S. hoped.  (this is something the media is not yet picking up on).  Second, the sanctions are not the fault of the U.S., they were imposed because of Iran’s actions.  (this is something the media will not admit).  See “US sanctions inflicted $1 trillion damage on Iran’s economy: FM,” Maziar Motamedi, Al Jazeera, February 21, 2021.

An accurate and concise statement—“Iran’s deafening silence on China’s Uighur Muslim repression speaks volumes about Tehran’s reliance on Beijing’s money.”  See “Why Iran won’t cross China on the Uighurs,” Kourosh Ziabari, Asia Times, February 21, 2021.

Again, just words.  Iran’s FM says things like this headline, but there are no resulting actions.  “Iran Says Ready for Talks With Arab States Without Preconditions,” Arsalan Shahla, Bloomberg, February 21, 2021.

This article is an example of the Leader and his Regime making rational calculations to move toward what they want—reduced sanctions, and not losing the ability to acquire ultimate weapons.  “Iran’s Compromise With Nuclear Monitors Limits Escalation,” Jonathan Tirone and Arsalan Shahla, Bloomberg, February 21, 2021.

“The Influence of Persian Racism on Status of Azerbaijani Turks in Iran,” Elchin Hatami, Modern Diplomacy, February 21, 2021.

Reuters says, “Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards have arrested dozens of dual nationals and foreigners in recent years, mostly on espionage charges. Rights activists have accused Iran of using them as bargaining chips, something Tehran denies.”  But Reuters, who has years of reporting on Iran’s hostage taking, refuses to run a story on whether the U.S. citizens are criminals/terrorists/etc.  Why won’t Reuters do an investigative story on those held in Iran and those held in the U.S.  And for other countries?  This is not rocket science.  See “Any U.S.-Iran communication over detained U.S. citizens has been via Swiss – official,” Reuters, February 21, 2021.

So Iran will follow its domestic law and end snap inspections under the JCPOA Additional Protocol.  Using later domestic-passed law to obviate international agreements is actually a violation itself of treaty principles—every International Law treatise includes this.  Further undermining Iran’s position here is that the Regime will not follow the letter of the law passed by the Majlis—it will instead allow three months of limited snap inspections as a compromise with the IAEA.  See “IAEA strikes deal with Iran to cushion coming blow of slashed access,” Francois Murphy, Reuters, February 21, 2021.

Reuters is making a lot of news today.  This goes back to my point about not reporting about the true nature of the hostages.  “White House says U.S. communicating with Iran over detained Americans,” Michael Martina, Reuters, February 21, 2021.

“Non-oil trade” is the key phrase.  Regardless of U.S. sanctions, keep your eye on the ball about what is being shipped—especially if it’s not on the manifest.  “Iran to launch direct shipping line to S. Africa, Latin America,” Hellinic Shipping News, February 21, 2021.

A novel definition of “non-breach” of an international agreement—FM Zarif says “All our steps (to breach the deal) are reversible…The move on Feb. 23 is not abandoning the deal,” Zarif said in a televised interview with Iran’s English Language Press TV.”  Under international law, whether a step is reversible or not does not constitute the definition of breach.  (I am having to offer too much international law guidance here—why isn’t the media interviewing international law scholars in the same article to refute what the FM claims?).  See “Iran’s Zarif Says Ending IAEA Snap Inspections Doesn’t Breach Nuclear Deal,” Asharq Al-Awsat, February 21, 2021.

Sometimes this blog carries news of countries that enable or influence Iran’s behavior.  Here is one of these.  “No matter how warm relations between Washington and Delhi become, history shows that some level of non-alignment will always be part of India’s policies.”  See “What India’s Relationship with Iran Means for America,” Larry Wortzel, National Interest, February 20, 2021.

It is really interesting and informing to read the types of stories carried by TASS.  “Russia, China seek to comply with nuclear deal, Europe does not – Iran’s foreign minister,” TASS, February 21, 2021.

“Iran closes Iraq border points to stem spread of coronavirus variant,” Reuters, February 20, 2021.

“Iran says studies EU-proposed informal meeting with U.S.,” Reuters, February 20, 2021.

“Iran’s female alpine ski team is coachless in Italy,” DW, February 20, 2021.

Iran, as seen in this article, is now claiming all Pres. Trump declarations are invalid and will be withdrawn.  “Reversing Trump Mideast Policy, Biden Ready for Talks With Iran,” Matthew Lee, Real Clear Politics, February 19, 2021.

What timing.  Get some extra hostages for leverage.  Either Iran is totally tone deaf, or it is banking on the knowledge that in this case “past performance is a guarantee of future performance” (to turn a financial phrase)—they know that hostage taking pays.  See “French-Iranian, German Citizens ‘Arrested In Iran’,” RFE/RL, February 19, 2021.

“Iran hangs already-dead woman Zahra Esmaili, lawyer says,” Iran Human Rights Monitor, February 19, 2021.

“Iran’s Largest Agrifood Export Terminal Launched in Mazandaran,” Financial Tribune, February 19, 2021.

“IRGC official says Iran’s conventional arms non-negotiable,” Tehran Times, February 19, 2021.

A great story.  “Judoka who fled Iran over Israeli matchup wins silver in Tel Aviv Grand Slam,” Rami Ayyub, Yahoo Sports, February 19, 2021.

Five years?!  “UIA plane crash: Ukraine expects to get compensation from Iran within 5 years,” Ukrinform, February 19, 2021.

“Unaddressed by the president and his team was the shift in posture that announcement represented. For weeks, and as recently as February 12, the White House had insisted that no new talks with Iran could commence, even with the Europeans involved, unless and until the Islamic regime first returned to compliance with the nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). “It’s really up to Iran to come back into full compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA. And at that point, we could move the discussion forward,” White House Press secretary Jen Psaki said at the press briefing of February 8. Four days later, she repeated: “If Iran comes back into full compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA, the United States would do the same and then use that as a platform to build a longer and stronger agreement and also address areas of concern.”  See “White House defends shift in Iran posture,” James Rose, Local 12, February 19, 2021.

Will the Biden Administration require accountability from Iran, or will the USG look away?  “Iranian-backed militias likely behind deadly rocket attack on U.S.-led base, experts say,” Dan De Luce, NBC, February 19, 2021.