Part of the problem in dealing with Iran is The West, and the mindset of some, which keeps Iran from moving much (even though it is now under great pressure—but China and Russia help relieve some of that pressure). The advice from some in The West, such as this editorial from CSM, is indicative. “The Iranians were complying” with the JCPOA that editorial proclaims. Yes and No and No. An argument can be made they were complying with the technical aspects of the agreement. An argument can be made they were also cheating (i.e, they limited or prevented some key inspections, and were continuing their nuclear weapons ambitions). And the JCPOA through sunset and other provisions allowed them at the end of the agreement’s period to become a nuclear power that was poised to use their then-developed missiles and expanded oppression to be the new version of Hussein of the Middle East. So Yes and No and No. The Trump Administration, not just Donald Trump himself, saw through the poor temporary “fix” the JCPOA was advertised to be and realized that kicking the can down the road wasn’t the answer, because that can was getting heavier and more explosive. The U.S. was right, for itself and the world, to say the “diplomatic answer” of the JCPOA was not what was needed. A different agreement, or set of incentives was needed. See “Can diplomacy deter Iranian nuclear ambitions a second time?,” Editorial, Christian Science Monitor, February 3, 2021.
I really don’t know what open defiance of the Supreme Leader will buy for the health minister, especially from the hardliners. I wonder what the Leader will say? “Iran Buys AstraZeneca-Oxford Vaccine Despite Leader’s Ban on Western Shots,” Arsalan Shahla, Bloomberg, February 3, 2021. “Iran has bought 4.2 million doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford University coronavirus vaccine, despite a ban on British and U.S.-made shots. Health Minister Saeed Namaki told state TV the shipment is expected later this month and was secured through the global vaccine procurement system backed by the World Health Organization. In January, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced a ban on importing British and U.S. Covid-19 shots, saying they couldn’t be trusted. But the country’s top epidemiologist later signaled a loophole when she said she was looking to import the British-made vaccine from outside the U.K.”
So the health minister has a scheme (plan) to increase the quantity and quality of immunizations. Wonder what the Leader is thinking about this? What are his closest followers thinking about the Leader’s position on blocking drugs from the West? “Iran expects 4.2 million AstraZeneca shots under COVAX scheme,” Reuters, February 3, 2021.
“US seizes another Iranian oil cargo,” Argus, February 3, 2021. “Washington-based sanctions experts point out that Iran’s oil exports have rebounded last year as Tehran has found ways to bypass US sanctions through ship-to-ship transfers and use of front companies. US court documents dealing with Iranian cargoes back that view, alleging that Tehran has managed to make use of facilities at Fujairah and other Mideast Gulf ports to export cargoes. China’s imports of Iranian crude averaged 78,000 b/d in 2020, based on Beijing’s customs data. The cargo aboard the Achilleas was transferred from ship to ship three times since being loaded into the Iran-flagged Sarak and Sonia I at the Sirri Island oil terminal in Iran in May 2020, according to court documents. The cargoes were then transferred to the Cook Islands-flagged Lubov — also known as the Ethan — and then to Panamanian-flagged Trident Liberty, before being loaded into the Achilleas.”
Just a month after taking a South Korean ship and crew hostage, FM Zarif says, “”Iran has always fully respected int’l law,” he wrote on Twitter. BTW, the Treaty of Amity between the U.S. and Iran (from the 1950s) does not prevent the U.S. from issuing sanctions, regardless of what the ICJ ruled. And if you don’t believe me, then hopefully you’ll see the logic that the treaty has stayed around as a relic of the past (it has not been terminated) despite the terrorism and other acts of Iran against the U.S. over the past 40 years. See “UN court says it can hear case brought by Iran against US,” Mike Corder, AP, February 3, 2021.
Both of these stories are about signaling. How will Iran respond? “Biden orders USS Nimitz aircraft carrier home in possible signal to Iran,” Zachary Keyser, Jerusalem Post, February 3, 2021. “U.S. signals Biden’s tough stance on Iran with new oil seizure attempt,” Verity Ratcliffe, World Oil, February 3, 2021.
From Tehran to London, he escaped. He didn’t provide many details, and probably won’t to protect others’ abilities to flee. “Released on bail, British-Iranian academic flees Iran through mountains,” AFP, Times of Israel, February 3, 2021.
Notice that they kept a human hostage, the captain. Reminds us of the movie “Captain Phillips.” See “Iran to release all crew but captain of seized South Korean ship,” AFP, VN Express, February 3, 2021.
“What is Iran’s mega-missile and what does it mean for nuclear deal?,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, February 3, 2021. “Iran launched a new satellite-carrying rocket recently, according to reports on February 3. Forbes has reported that it could carry a nuclear warhead, while other media have pointed out that the launch was done as the new Biden administration is discussing the Iran deal. The importance of the launch looks to be multilayered, both signaling to the US the power of Iran’s missile program, and also potentially threatening Israel. Tal Inbar was the head of the UAV research center at the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies until 2019, and he is an independent analyst on missiles, UAV and space. He frequently covers new Iranian missile technology. “This is an important development,” he told The Jerusalem Post in an interview. Iran introduced a totally new launch vehicle, according to Inbar. “We knew about it from Iranian sources more than a year ago, and it was fired and launched without a satellite as a test flight, and it is a three-stage launch vehicle.” It is called Zoljanah. … Tal Inbar: Recent launch was Iran signaling its missile program is off the table for Iran deal discussions.”
Iran-loyal militias in Syria are now more than 18,000. “Syrian monitor says Iran continues military recruitment operations,” Arab News, February 3, 2021.
Don’t forget—“Assadi warned authorities in March of possible retaliation by unidentified groups if he is found guilty, according to apolice document obtained by Reuters.” See “In first for Europe, Iran envoy faces sentencing over bomb plot,” Robin Emmott, Reuters, February 3, 2021.