An Iranian PMU fired 107 mm rockets at a military installation next to the civilian airport. “U.S., Kurds Blame Iran for Deadly Irbil Attack Despite Tehran’s Denials: Sources,” Paul Shinkman, USNWR, February 16, 2021.
Good analysis. Iran is now testing Biden with violence, not just threats. “After rocket attack, Biden faces first real test on Iran,” Martin Chulov, Guardian, February 16, 2021.
Quote of the day. “In October 2019, the International Judo Federation said it had banned Iran from international competition over the country’s refusal to allow its fighters to face Israeli opponents. Iran said the ban was based on “false claims.” On Tuesday, president of the Iranian Judo Federation Arash Miresmaeili expressed regret that “a foolish athlete” and “hollow champion who only thinks of his personal interests has gone to Tel Aviv [for an international judo competition, representing Mongolia] and is proud of it.” “This is not an honor but a stain of shame on your forehead that will stay with you forever, because you have turned your back on the ideals of the system, on your homeland, and are proud of it,” Miresmaeili said in a statement, addressing Mollaei.” See “Israeli media hails ‘historic’ arrival of Iranian-born judoka,” Arab News, AFP, February 16, 2021.
The next step to blackmail the remaining JCPOA parties (really just UK, France, and Germany) by Iran, which has told the UN IAEA that it will halt snap nuclear inspections on February 23. See “Iran to curb cooperation with nuclear watchdog inspectors,” Al Jazeera, February 16, 2021.
“Iran could deploy 200 missiles in Iraq to attack Israel,” Jerusalem Post, February 16, 2021.
“The Deterrent Message Iran Needs to Hear,” Elliott Abrams, op-ed, National Review, Yahoo News, February 16, 2021. “Trump tweeted on December 23, two days after an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, “Some friendly health advice to Iran: If one American is killed, I will hold Iran responsible. Think it over.” The messages were clear: If an Iranian proxy killed an American, the U.S. reaction would not target the proxy but would target Iran. What exactly that meant was kept ambiguous; Iran had to calculate risks. And the Iranian regime did so. From the election to the inauguration there was one attack, and after that December attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, the Iranian proxies desisted. And to repeat, there is only one logical explanation for this: Tehran got the message and instructed them to desist. This background explains why the attack on Americans in Erbil is so important. Iran understood the messages from the United States prior to January 20, but what is the message now? Will we “hold accountable those responsible,” as Blinken said, or will we instead allow Iran to hide behind proxies it controls? If we do the latter, the message to Iran is that such attacks are acceptable — and we can expect more of them. These are efforts to kill Americans, and by killing or wounding American servicemembers and contractors to drive the United States from Iraq. The Biden administration should instead adopt a policy of deterrence, warning Iran that it will be held accountable directly. That messaging, plus a clear willingness to carry through if need be, has worked. It did not reduce attacks to zero, but it significantly depressed their size and frequency — because those must have been the orders from Tehran. Those orders can be sent to the Iraqi Shia militias once again. It all depends on what Tehran hears from Washington. If an American is killed by an Iranian-supported militia and the United States responds, does that mean the end of diplomacy or a wider war? It does not. The United States has a multitude of military options, some of which would clearly signal to Iran that we have no wish to escalate into a larger conflict — but that we insist the Iranian regime stop trying to kill Americans — or else. That’s the message the Biden administration should be sending this week.”
“Bulgarian prosecutors say heroin found in cargo from Iran,” AP, Star Tribune, February 16, 2021. “Bulgarian customs officials confiscated more than 400 kilograms (880 pounds) of heroin from a ship transporting goods from Iran, prosecutors said Tuesday. The drugs were divided in 487 packages and hidden among asphalt rollers the ship was carrying, prosecutor Vladimir Chavdarov. Customs officials in the Black Sea port of Varna valued the seized heroin at 18 million euros ($22 million). Two Bulgarian men – the owner of the receiving company and a customs officer – were detained and could face up to 20 years in jail, if convicted on drug trafficking charges. Bulgarian police believe the heroin was not intended for the domestic market but rather destined to be sold in Western Europe. Drugs from the Mideast sometimes are transported on trucks from Afghanistan through Iran, Turkey and Bulgaria to Western Europe.”
“Iran had between 80,000 and 100,000 Jews before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, but most have since fled, mainly to the United States, Israel and Europe. There are now only about 8,500 left, mostly in Tehran but also in Isfahan and Shiraz, major cities south of the capital.” See “Iran arrests thieves digging secret tunnel to steal from synagogue,” Jerusalem Post, February 16, 2021.
“Iran military slams spy chief for saying soldier tied to nuke scientist’s death,” AFP, Times of Israel, February 16, 2021.