Month: June 2021

“Iran announces emergency use of 2nd domestic COVID-19 vaccine,” Xinhua, June 30, 2021.  The use of only home-grown meds, or those bought from Russia or China, continues to hamper the health of the population in Iran.  It does not have to be this way if Iran would accept vaccines from the West.

Quote of the day.  “Considering Iran’s nuclear history, if long-range ballistic missile tests, masquerading as satellite space launches, are left unaddressed in ongoing talks, a future Iranian ICBM threat is inevitable.”  See “What Iran’s Failed Satellite Launch Likely Signals,” Peter Brookes, The Daily Signal, June 30, 2021.

“Lindsey Graham: ‘Never been more worried’ about potential war between Iran, Israel,” Fox, June 30, 2021.

“Iran’s Parliament Seeks Death Penalty for “Collaborating with Enemy States”,” Center for Human Rights in Iran, June 30, 2021.

“Iran Sentences Christian Converts Under New Sectarianism Law,” Persecution.org, June 30, 2021.

Apparently a farewell to long-serving FM Zarif, and an introduction to another hardliner, Ali Bagheri Kani, as the next foreign minister.  He is an outspoken opponent of the 2015 JCPOA, IAEA, cooperation with the West, supporter of the nuclear program, etc.  See “Iranian press review: Nuclear deal opponent tipped as new foreign minister,” Middle East Eye, June 30, 2021.

A very unusual article for the theme of this blog, but it really fits in.  This story makes the point that being radical is no way to run a country long-term, it is bad for the country and its people, but also makes it easier for opponents to spy.  “Former Iranian intelligence minister: ‘Mossad has penetrated the regime’,” Neta Bar, JNS, Israel Hayom, June 30, 2021.

“Iran Diplomacy Nerves Fray as Atomic Talks Run Into Summer,” Jonathan Tirone, Bloomberg, June 30, 2021.

Quote of the Day.  “Iran is not capable of fundamental reform in any Western sense under this regime.”  This goes back to Kissinger’s famous statement.  See “The real reason America has never found common ground with Iran,” Eric Mandel, op-ed, JNS, June 30, 2021.  “The Iranian regime is a fundamentalist Twelver Shi’ite revolutionary movement of true believers whose mission is to spread their repressive understanding of Islam throughout the world, including among their Sunni brethren. They are as doctrinaire as ISIS in their beliefs, except the Iranians will soon have the capability to have nuclear weapons. Since 1979, many Republicans and most Democrats have not been able to deal with this complex reality. The Achilles’ heel of American foreign policy is the false belief that all nations, including those that are horrifically repressive and sponsors of terrorists, can be induced to choose a more conciliatory and less confrontational posture to the U.S. and its allies by Western reason and economic inducement. This comes despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary that our outreach has been interpreted as a weakness. Administrations from both parties have chosen to ignore the obvious because of our Western conceit, that we know how to manipulate this regime if we only bend enough, give enough money and show respect. The manipulation masters are the Iranians. Religiously sanctioned dissimulation, also known as Taqiyya, permits deception of one’s enemy. The Iranians’ patsies are their naïve Western nuclear negotiation counterparts. None of this is new. In 2006, Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute wrote, “It is dangerous to assume that both Washington and Tehran operate from the same set of ground rules. [Former Supreme Leader Sayyid Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini] spoke of the Shi’ite concept of taqiyah…the necessity to engage in such religiously sanctioned lying…If the Islamic Republic perceives itself as under threat, its leaders may not only feel compelled to lie but may also feel justified in so doing. From a religious and political perspective, the ends justify the means.” Iran is not capable of fundamental reform in any Western sense under this regime. The quicker we understand that, the more realistic will be our foreign policy. For President Biden and previous administrations from both parties, ignoring it is a prescription for national security nightmares.”

“Iran says executing child offenders not a rights violation,” Arab News, June 30, 2021.

Notice that it is not ALL foreign vessels, just SELECTED foreign vessels.  “Foreign Vessels Should Leave Persian Gulf: Iran,” Kashmir Observer, June 30, 2021.

“If and when a return to the agreement is reached, the Biden administration will also need to counter Iran’s escalating efforts in the Middle East.”  See “The Iran Nuclear Deal Isn’t the Problem. Iran Is,” James Jeffrey and Dennis Ross, The Atlantic, June 29, 2021.  Again, Kissinger’s quote and the purpose of this blog appear.  “The regional perspective on Iran is driven by these leaders’ experience with the Islamic Republic. For them, the core question with Iran, as Henry Kissinger once put it, is whether it is a country or a cause. The case for the latter is strong and deeply rooted: Revolutionary Iran uses Islamic, Shiite, and anti-colonialist rhetoric to justify an expansionist nationalistic agenda.”

This will most likely result in the UN Secretary General having to take a stand.  “EXCLUSIVE U.N. expert backs probe into Iran’s 1988 killings, Raisi’s role,” Reuters, June 29, 2021.

“Bahrain: Iran stands out as main source of narcotics,” Ramadan Al Sherbini, Gulf News, June 29, 2021.

As this article say, and research shows, decay usually is showing by the third generation.  “Is Iran’s Islamic Revolution running out of puff?,” Satoshi Ikeuchi, Nikkei Japan, June 29, 2021.

“Oil Industry Workers Go on National Strike in Iran,” Center for Human Rights in Iran, June 29, 2021.

“U.S. launches airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq, Syria,” Tim Stelloh, Courtney Kube, and Saphora Smith, NBC, June 28, 2021.  “U.S. military forces carried out what a Pentagon official called “defensive” airstrikes in Iraq and Syria on Sunday against Iran-backed militia groups that were behind drone attacks on American personnel.  Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said in a statement that the airstrikes targeted operational and weapons storage facilities at two locations in Syria and one in Iraq. The facilities were used by at least two militias, Kata’ib Hezbollah and Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Kirby said. The fourteenth brigade of the Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella group for a number of Iran-backed militias in Iraq, said four of its fighters were killed in the attack. The fourteenth brigade is made up of Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada members.”

“Report details China and Iran’s ‘pragmatic’ anti-U.S. partnership,” Jenna McLaughlin, Yahoo, June 28, 2021.

Notice two things.  Iran has attacked the U.S.  Second, the news needs to remember to put things in sequence—here, a few days ago Iran’s militias attacked U.S. positions in Iraq, then the U.S. responded.  Now Iran has attacked the U.S. again.  See “US forces in Syria came under rocket fire, a day after US carried out airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias,” Barbara Starr and Nicole Gaouette, CNN, June 28, 2021.

“Navid Afkari: Executed Iranian wrestling star’s voice is ‘everywhere now’,” Don Riddell, CNN, June 28, 2021.

This WPost op-ed portends what will happen.  Remember, IRGC, Raisi, and the Leader.  Too much invested to go backwards.  (like the Taliban—they are coming back).  There will be a limited JCPOA, but Iran will continue NOT being a normal state as long as the current management is in charge.  See “The U.S. and Iran near a breaking point,” Ishaan Tharoor, op-ed, Washington Post, June 28, 2021.

“Iran’s 7,000km range drone is a warning to Israel – analysis,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, June 28, 2021.

Mr. Simon is a good reporter.  But he stakes this article’s claim on one item only—that Iran is running out of foreign reserves.  “Iran Is Increasingly Likely To Accept A New Nuclear Deal,” Simon Watkins, OilPrice.com, June 28, 2021.

“Iran should switch support from militias to Iraq, KRG: British ambassador,” Anis Ari, Rudaw, June 28, 2021.

“Iran won’t share nuclear images with UN as deal has expired, says speaker,” The National, June 27, 2021.

“Iran has drones with range of 7,000 km, Guards commander says,” Reuters, June 27, 2021.

This is the way it should work.  Players/countries lifting each other up to higher heights.  “Iranian footballer ‘glad’ Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo could break goals record,” Mehrdad Sadeghi, Euro News, June 27, 2021.

Audacious to talk about sending vaccine to countries under the sway of Iran in the Shia Arc, and before the terrible provision of drugs for his own country.  “Iran Could Become Covid Vaccine Exporter,” Financial Tribune, June 27, 2021.

“Iran’s gas and energy workers hold wage protests as nation grapples with sanctions,” The National, June 27, 2021.

Joe, say it ain’t so!  It doesn’t make sense to not sanction the one person most responsible for the suffering in/from Iran.  “Biden admin weighs lifting sanctions on Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,” Dan De Luce, NBC, June 26, 2021.

Iran wants Lebanon to be dependent on Iran, and wants Iran to remain in a precarious state.  That, of course, is not good government nor good for the region.  “Iran warns U.S. diplomat over meddlesome remarks,” Tehran Times, June 26, 2021.

“Iran says it won’t negotiate forever, but believes nuclear deal can be saved,” Times of Israel, June 26, 2021.

Notice that by accident or on purpose, the Ministry of Tourism listed first the most important country in the world at present to Iran—China.  “Iran targets 30 countries to boost inbound tourism,” Tehran Times, June 26, 2021.

Two problems.  Iran has a poor record with regard to how returning citizens are treated, and second Iran has a poor record regarding confiscation of assets.  “Raisis’ Call to Iranian Expats to Return Home Met with Skepticism,” Iran International, June 26, 2021.

As long at the IRGC can control and benefit financially.  “Iran Counts 30 Crypto Mining Farms Licensed to Mint Digital Currencies,” Lubomir Tassev, Bitcoin.com, June 26, 2021.

The story says it all.  “Iran’s supreme leader has received the first coronavirus vaccine developed by the Islamic Republic, state TV reported Friday. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that he was not interested in taking foreign-made vaccines, because it is better to “wait for the Iranian vaccine because we have to be proud of this national honor.” In January, Khamenei banned imports of the American and Britain vaccines, a reflection of mistrust toward the West. Iranian pharmaceutical company Shifafarmed made the COVIran Barekat vaccine based on deactivated virus, and the first study of the safety and effectiveness began in late December. The emergency authorization was approved last week after the country, which is the worst-hit nation in the Middle East, faced problems importing enough vaccines [from Russia and China]. Iran has not published data about efficacy of the vaccine.”  “Iran’s top leader receives its home-made corona vaccine,” AP, ABC, June 25, 2021.

“Iran election result ‘will mean hardship for the Church’,” Madeleine Davies, Church Times, June 25, 2021.

Rare footage of Leader moving his disabled arm.  “Khamenei receives Iran-developed COVID-19 shot,” NHK World—Japan, June 25, 2021.

“US, France fear Iran’s nuclear activities may advance if talks drag,” The News, June 25, 2021.  Remember, it has always been a concern that the nuclear bomb efforts will continue and speed up while the world is distracted with talking.

If the IRI wants the JCPOA to be reinstituted, it has no choice but to be monitored.  Then again, Iran does not act as a rational government or normal state (that is part of what got us into this situation).  “Iran says has no obligation to respond to IAEA request on monitoring deal,” Reuters, June 25, 2021.

Off the coast of Senegal as of June 24.  As I’m now seeing this story they could be well to the W or the N.  “Iranian Naval Passage Through Atlantic Prompts US Concern,” Carla Babb, VOA, June 25, 2021.

Another fascinating article about holding back Iran’s nuclear program.  “Iranian Nuke Centrifuge Plant Badly Damaged By Drones,” Arie Egozi, Breaking Defense, June 25, 2021.

“Iran’s Absentee Voting Events at US Hotels Raise Sanctions, Ethics Questions,” Michael Lipin, VOA, June 25, 2021.  So the Administration apparently gave licenses to these hotels to hold events for Iran (Canada refused), and these hotels accepted payment to assist Iran.  Not good.  The voting could have been held online, for example.  Or they could have mailed in ballots.  There are other ways, also.

“UPDATE 1-IAEA wants ‘immediate response’ from Iran on extending monitoring deal,” Francois Murphy, Reuters, June 25, 2021.

Not a matter of the normal trade that occurs between countries, but an example of control and use of another country for one’s dark purposes.  “Iran-Syria port and maritime co-op on the rise,” Tehran Times, June 25, 2021.

“Iran is secretly making centrifuge rotor tubes and bellows at unknown locations, in violation of the JCPOA.”  This is a really big story.  “Iran nuclear centrifuge facility substantially damaged in attack – sources,” Yonah Jeremy Bob and Tzvi Joffre, Jerusalem Post, June 24, 2021.

A million Christians?  “Iran’s Christian Boom,” Daniel Pipes, Newsweek, June 24, 2021.

Very interesting timeline story.  “Pompeo to ‘Post’: Iran unwound nuclear deal in a matter of months:  The Mossad-CIA story in the Mike Pompeo, Yossi Cohen era,” Yonah Jeremy Bob, Jerusalem Post, June 24, 2021.

These types of reviews are rare in the media.  “A look at Iran’s new First Lady,” Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, Iran Source, June 24, 2021.

“Nuclear Secrets Have Been Exposed,” Clifford May, Detroit Jewish News, June 24, 2021.

It is not normal for states to threaten, as these two stories lay out.  “Iran: Regime Threatens to Abduct, Use Terrorism Against MEK,” NCRI, June 24, 2021.  Iran is trying to erase an entire family, as a message to other families.  “Iran intensifies persecution of executed Iranian wrestler Navid Afkari’s family,” Karim Zidan, Bloody Elbow, June 24, 2021.

“Iran claims US to lift oil sanctions but Biden administration says nothing agreed,” Reuters, CNBC, June 24, 2021.

“BBC appeals to UN over Iran’s harassment of Persian service staff,” BBC, June 24, 2021.  These death threats, as the story lays out, are so easy to tie to Iran’s intelligence ministry and others–wonder why the UN won’t take the time to confirm with a sting/proof operation?

“Iran Set to Miss Nuclear Monitoring Deadline With Talks Unclear,” Jonathan Tirone and Nick Wadhams, Bloomberg, Yahoo, June 24, 2021.

“‘Sabotage attack’ on Iranian nuclear building foiled,” Al Jazeera, June 23, 2021.

A Middle East without Iranian drones (which are being used offensively, not defensively) would be a good thing.  “Israel and US said to increase cooperation to combat Iranian drones,” Times of Israel, June 23, 2021.

The myth of moderate Rouhani versus the hardliners continues in this article.  It was simply strategy, not difference in what needed to be done.  But it will be interesting to see how long before FM Zarif is replaced.  It is only a matter of time before Raisi is contradicted and blocked by Supreme Leader Khamenei, who famously pits officials against each other so he can stay in power.  “Conservative consolidation in Iran won’t necessarily bring stability,” Mohammad Ali Shabani, Axios, July 23, 2021.

Those Christians, such a threat to the state.  “Christian converts put on trial in Iran for threatening state,” Jerusalem Post, June 23, 2021.

Gotta’ love the logic and spin.  “Iran’s ICT minister: No satellite launched and therefore no failure,” Tehran Times, June 23, 2021.

“Iranians Are Frustrated By How Long It Is Taking To Get Vaccinated,” Peter Kenyon, WVTF, June 23, 2021.

Who are you going to believe?  Mehr News Agency or Jerusalem Post?  I vote the Post, based on the comparative track record.  “Iran atomic facility substantially damaged in attack – sources,” Yonah Jeremy Bob and Tzvi Joffre, Jerusalem Post, June 23, 2021.

The Supreme Leader does not like the MEK/NCRI.  “Maryam Rajavi’s Ten-Point Plan for the Future of Iran,” Maryam Rajavi, op-ed, Washington Times, June 23, 2021.

That a doctoral student (I also attended UConn) would think Iran may seize opportunities against Saudi Arabia hardly means peace between the two, and hardly means that Raisi is a dove.  O’Connor needs additional sources.  “Iran’s New Hard-line President Raisi Could Be Dove in Hawk’s Clothing,” Tom O’Connor, Newsweek, June 23, 2021.

“Top UN Official: Human Rights Situation in Iran is of “Serious Concern”,” Center for Human Rights in Iran, June 23, 2021.

Reading between the lines, the Tehran Times is admitting that FIFA will continue to threaten Iran’s involvement in world football because of the control and machinations involving the national team.  “Not bright future ahead of Iran’s sports minister,” Farrokh Hesabi, Tehran Times, June 23, 2021.

“Iran to decide whether to extend IAEA monitoring deal after expiry–official,” Reuters, June 23, 2021.

What does Iran give?  Will it release hostages?  “Iran official says US has agreed to lift oil, shipping sanctions,” Reuters, Jerusalem Post, June 23, 2021.

“Despite Iranian claims, both in July 2020 and April 2021, the Islamic Republic initially lied to the global media in trying to downplay sabotage operations.”  See “Iran claims sabotage of Iran Atomic Energy Organization failed – explainer,” Yonah Jeremy Bob and Tzvi Joffre, Jerusalem Post, June 23, 2021.

“Iran must be held accountable for nuclear activity: Saudis,” Khitam Al Amir, Gulf News, June 23, 2021.

“What might be the real target of the sabotage in Iran? – analysis,” Yonah Jeremy Bob, Jerusalem Post, June 23, 2021.

“Iran’s incoming president shoots down Biden plan to expand nuclear deal to missile program,” Joel Gehrke, Yahoo, June 22, 2021.

“According to eyewitnesses in various Iranian cities, most polling stations were completely deserted, indicating widespread boycotts of the election by the majority of the population. In spite of this reality, however, as it has been common practice by Khamenei to legitimize the elections and his regime, he claimed that more than 28 million people, or nearly 50% of eligible voters had cast their ballots, quintupling the actual number of vote casters. While according to reports, and numerous clips that are made by witnesses in various polling stations in different cities of Iran and published in cyberspace, the turnout in this election show was less than 10% of eligible voters.”  See “The End Of Iran’s Sham Elections,” Cyrus Yaqubi, op-ed, Eurasia Review, June 22, 2021.

“Analysis: Iran vote points to hardline goal of long-term power – analysts,” John Irish and Parisa Hafezi, Reuters, June 22, 2021.

“Iranian Nuclear Weapons Development Sites Requiring IAEA Inspections – Analysis,” Joshua Block, Eurasia Review, Hudson Institute, June 22, 2021.

“Iran, Russia, and Turkey: A Eurasionist Model of Foreign Relations,” Emil Avdaliani, BESA, June 22, 2021.

So much that is incorrect in this article, but I’ll post it to show the propaganda.  “Iran stands tall against COVID-19 ‘vaccine apartheid’,” Faranak Bakhtiari, Tehran Times, June 22, 2021.

Appeasement.  “Biden Wants a Deal With the Khobar Towers Killers,” Mike Pompeo, op-ed, Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2021.

So here are some numbers—maybe the turnout nation-wide was 20%?  “Official turnout in the June 18 election was 48.8 percent, the lowest ever registered in the Islamic republic, which was established in 1979. In the capital, Tehran, only 26 percent of registered voters decided to participate. By comparison, the turnout in the last two presidential elections — in 2013 and 2017 — was about 73 percent, while in 2009 nearly 85 percent of voters cast their ballots, according to official Interior Ministry statistics. The number of spoiled ballots in last week’s presidential vote was 3.7 million — or about 12 percent of the total. That suggests that many people cast protest votes despite a fatwa by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei banning blank votes “if they result in the weakening of the Islamic establishment.” In previous elections, an average of about 2 percent of the votes were invalid.”  See “Voters Send A Message To Iran’s Leaders After Dismal Turnout For Presidential Election,” Golnaz Esfandiari, RFE/RL, June 22, 2021.

“U.S. Seizes Websites Used by Iran-Backed Terror Orgs,” Sara Marcus, Hamodia, June 22, 2021.

“Pentagon tracked failed Iranian satellite launch and new images reveal Tehran is set to try again,” Zachary Cohen and Oren Lieberman, CNN, June 22, 2021.

“U.S. blocks websites linked to Iranian disinformation,” Reuters, June 22, 2021.

“DOJ seizes 36 U.S. website domains for Iranian government disinformation,” Rebecca Falconer, Axios, June 22, 2021.

“The failed launch attempt is the fourth consecutive failure of the Simorgh launcher,” said Lewis [Jeffrey Lewis is a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies], author of an upcoming book on Iran’s space program. “Iran seems to be struggling with this specific system.”  See “Pentagon tracked failed Iranian satellite launch and new images reveal Tehran is set to try again,” Zachary Cohen and Oren Liebermann, CNN, June 22, 2021.

Quote of the Day.  “I’ve always defended the rights of the people. Human rights have been the most foundational base upon which I worked.”  Iran’s president-elect Ebrahim Raisi.  “Multiple rights groups have also specifically condemned his alleged involvement with a four-person “death panel” in 1988 that oversaw the mass execution of up to 5,000 political prisoners. Raisi has never commented on the death panel allegations. When asked about the executions during Monday’s news conference, he instead defended his track record as a prosecutor and judge. … Raisi added that he was “proud” that throughout his career he has defended human rights and said that he would continue to do so as Iran’s next president. Amnesty International demanded on Saturday that he be investigated for alleged crimes against humanity over the mass executions.”  “Iran’s hardline president-elect Ebrahim Raisi says he will not meet with Biden,” Tamara Qiblawi, Frederik Pleitgen, Claudia Otto, Ramin Mostaghim and Lauren Said-Moorhouse, CNN, June 21, 2021.  “All of Raisi’s serious rivals were barred from the race and overall voter turnout was 48.8%, the lowest figure since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979.”  I think it was much lower than 48%.

The headline says it all.  “Iran’s Raisi says ballistic missiles, regional presence ‘not negotiable’ — and he doesn’t want to meet Biden,” Erin Cunningham, Washington Post, June 21, 2021.

An unexplained shutdown.  “Iran’s sole nuclear power plant undergoes emergency shutdown,” AP, June 21, 2021.

“White House: Khamenei still ‘decision-maker’ after presidential election in Iran,” Katherine Doyle, Yahoo, June 21, 2021.

“‘I am innocent’: Urgent pleas to release Australian-Iranian citizen held in Tehran prison,” Anthony Galloway, Sydney Morning Herald, June 21, 2021.

Thank you Guyana.  “Guyana checks Winsome ways of Iran-linked tanker,” Lloyd’s List, June 21, 2021.  “Guyana’s flag registry is one of 18 developing countries in Africa, Caribbean and Pacific regions used by flag-hopping owners of tankers engaged in subterfuge shipping.”  This enables crime and proliferation, etc.

“Iran: Stop imminent execution of young man arrested and tortured at 17,” Amnesty International, June 21, 2021.