“Blinken rejects Russian demand to not link sanctions with Iran deal,” AFP, March 6, 2022.
“Blinken rejects Russian demand to not link sanctions with Iran deal,” AFP, March 6, 2022.
This important JCPOA/nuclear weapons news is a reminder of the international relations theory of realism, and of the importance of the U.S. needing to stand firm for freedom (against Russia and Iran), and a reminder that it is difficult for countries to stick together who have motives that are less than (select your adjective) for their own people. This news is being carried by multiple news outlets. “Russia’s demand for US guarantees may stall nuclear talks, says Iran official,” Middle East Eye, March 5, 2022. But it is bigger than the negative actions by Russia against Ukraine. Both Russia and China are asking “for written guarantee from Washington that its trade, investment and military cooperation with Iran will not be hindered by US sanctions.”
We will believe it when we see it, as this claim is against years of practice by Iran. “Iran to answer UN nuclear questions as deal talks near end,” Philipp Jenne and Jon Gambrell, AP, Aspen Daily News, March 5, 2022. “Today, Tehran enriches uranium up to 60% purity — its highest level ever and a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90% and far greater than the nuclear deal’s 3.67% cap. Its stockpile of enriched uranium also continues to grow, worrying nuclear nonproliferation experts that Iran could be closer to the threshold of having enough material for an atomic weapon if it chose to pursue one.”
The type of story that some of us have seen often—the last minute request or revelation. “Iran Nuclear Deal Threatened by Russian Demands Over Ukraine Sanctions,” Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2022.
“Biden’s Dangerous Iran Deal,” National Review, March 4, 2022. “The problem then and now is the same — the JCPOA never prevented Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, it allowed it to continue ballistic-missile development, and it ignored Iran’s status as the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism. The deal’s billions in sanctions relief (to say nothing of the ransom payments) have funded the brutality of the regime and its proxies.” … “One of the main failures of the original Iran deal was that even if the regime followed all of its provisions, it would remain on a long-term glide path to nuclear weapons, as the deal’s restrictions began to sunset within ten years of its 2016 implementation. But given Iran’s advancements since the original deal, Tehran is currently enriching uranium at up to 60 percent purity, producing uranium metal, and hiding stockpiles of fissile material from the IAEA. As a result, the Islamic Republic has a breakout time of under six months.” … “The original JCPOA capped enrichment at 3.67 percent. Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, said that even if Vienna ends up again in a JCPOA-style deal, Iran will continue to enrich at up to 20 percent — the threshold for being considered highly enriched and a crucial hurdle in the path to nuclearization.”
“Iran, U.S. Close to Reviving Iranian Nuclear Deal,” Laurence Norman, Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2022. “U.S. and Iranian officials cautioned there was at least one big issue that still needed solving: Iran has been pushing for more sanctions relief if the nuclear deal is restored. In particular, it wants the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to be taken off Washington’s most significant terror sanctions list, the Foreign Terrorist Organization.” This would be such a bad step by the Biden Administration—green lighting the IRGC to more easily do terrorism. A terrible decision.
Uh oh, a scorched launch pad. “Satellite photos show Iran had another failed space launch,” Jon Gambrell, AP, March 3, 2022.
“Iran releases activist who opposed Internet control bill,” Manistee News Advocate, March 3, 2022.
“IAEA Chief to Visit Iran in Possible Boost to Nuclear Deal,” Reuters, March 2, 2022. Don’t do it—Iran doesn’t have a track record of following agreements. “Three Iranian officials close to the talks said a wide array of sanctions, including those keeping Iran from exporting its oil and those on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi, were to be removed if the 2015 pact was revived.”
“Iran–Russia Relations Under Raisi: The Eurasian Dimension – Analysis,” Deepika Saraswat, Eurasia Review, March 1, 2022.
And I thought the Ukraine War was started by Putin. “Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Tuesday the war in Ukraine should be stopped and accused the United States, which he called a “mafia-like regime”, of creating the crisis.” See “Iran’s supreme leader criticises U.S. over Ukraine crisis,” Parisa Hafezi, Reuters, March 1, 2022.