“Iran’s chess game is going well, but US Navy carriers are queens not pawns,” Telegraph, 10-31-23.  The Iranian government’s desire to escalate the Gaza war and open up Hezbollah is tempered by the presence of the Ford off the coast of Lebanon.  In other words, radical Shia expansion is being deterred (hopefully) by Western democratic-minded power.

“Lawyer Arrest Fuels Outrage Over Iran Teen’s Death,” Barron’s, 10-31-23.  Nasrin Sotoudeh, 60, was arrested at the funeral on Sunday in Tehran of Armita Garawand, 17, whose death was reported by Iranian state media at the weekend after a month in a coma.

Be assured that Iran through its Quds Force is NOT discouraging these plans and threats by various groups.  “FBI Director Wray warns terror threat to Americans at ‘whole other level’ amid Hamas-Israel conflict,” Fox, 10-31-23.

“Amid Israel War, Iran Tests Massive Haydar Missile From Bell Helicopter That Can Hit Tanks 30 KMs Away,” Eurasian Times, 10-31-23.

Nasrallah doesn’t want to die.  “Hezbollah Hesitates as Israel Strikes Gaza,” NYT, 10-31-23.

“Iranian hackers caught spying on governments and military in Middle East,” The Record, 10-31-23.

The only foreign minister (Abdollahian) in the world to meet with Hamas’ leader (Haniyeh).  “Iran’s FM Meets With Hamas Leader In Qatar,” 10-31-23.

“Profiles of 15 Iranian-Backed Militias in the Middle East,” Long War Journal, 10-31-23.

“Iran’s nuclear envoy threatens Israel’s annihilation after return from Hamas meeting in Russia,” Washington Examiner, 10-31-23.

At least four attacks since Pres. Biden’s two.  “Iran-backed militias continue to attack U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria,” Long War Journal, 10-30-23.  “One assault took place today at the Ain Al Assad Air Base in Anbar Province in Iraq. Two of the militia attacks took place on Oct. 29 at U.S. bases in Al-Shadadi in Hasaka Province and the Omar Oil Field in Deir el-Zor Province, both in Syria. The other two strikes took place on Oct. 27, after the U.S. military announced its assaults on the IRGC depots. One of the attacks targeted the Omar Oil Field, while the other at the Ain Al Assad Air Base.”

“Attacks on US Forces in Iraq and Syria Continue After American Airstrikes,” Air and Space Forces Magazine, 10-30-23.

“Saudi Forces on Alert After Clash With Iran-Backed Houthis,” Bloomberg, 10-30-23.

“Iran tells US to stop blaming it for Hamas attack on Israel,” Reuters, Jerusalem Post, Reuters, 10-30-23.

“Counter-terror chiefs on alert for Iranian activity in UK exploiting Gaza war,” Guardian, 10-30-23.

There are over 500 km of tunnels in Gaza (how much did that cost!), about 50-75 m deep.  2 km of tunnel equals a three story that could be a health clinic.  “Iran Brags About Hamas Tunnels As Weapons Of War,” Iran International, 10-30-23.  Mohammad Bagheri, the Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, says Hamas fighters have constructed over 400 kilometers of tunnels.  The 500 km is from the televised interview with Hamas official Marzouk who said the tunnels in Gaza were built to protect Hamas fighters from air strikes, not civilians.  He said that protecting Gaza civilians is the responsibility of the United Nations and Israel.

This is another story regarding how the UN is out of touch, and with regard to reigning in Iran.  It wants Musk’s company Starlink, trying to spread internet freedom, to be subject to the authoritarian Iranian Regime.  Ironic.  Clueless.  The UN telecommunications body is the Radio Regulations Board of the International Telecommunication Union.  “Will Starlink comply with ruling to engage with Iranian authorities?,” Amwaj, 10-30-23.

Iran reads USNWR, and will see that the U.S. is continuing its Abraham Accords work with the Saudi Arabia.  “Sullivan Told Saudi Defense Minister US Will Support Defense of Its Partners White House,” Reuters, 10-30-23.

“Prepare for an Iranian Escalation,” WSJ, 10-30-23.  “Tehran can’t sit back and watch Israel crush Hamas. Absent serious deterrence, it will open a second front.”  It has too much at stake.  And can’t afford the Abraham Accords to again gain traction.

“Iran says strikes on US troops are due to its support for Israel, presence in region,” Times of Israel, 10-30-23.  Ponder this statement from the article—“Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi has said Iran sees it as “its duty to support the resistance groups” but has insisted that they “are independent in their opinion, decision and action.””

The headline tells it all.  The interviewer asked good questions, but a review of news articles from this blog alone presents overwhelming evidence and examples that the Islamic Republic of Iran is heavily involved in malign activities for years.  “Iranian Foreign Minister: “We Are Not Involved” In Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, “Why Is The U.S. So Involved?”, RealClearPolitics, 10-29-23.

“Israel has “crossed the red lines” in Gaza, Iranian President Raisi says,” CNN, 10-29-23.  It is impossible for a reader to know if this is the point at which the Ayatollah orders Hezbollah into the action.

I highly encourage persons to read a newsletter/blog that I’ve added to my Iran blog, Echoing Eden:  Christian Analysis of the Conflict in Israel, found at https://zacharymccartney.substack.com

Extended Quote of the Day, from the WSJ editorial board:  “The Pentagon says the U.S. hit two facilities in eastern Syria that are used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). But pinprick bombing of weapons and ammo lockers aren’t proportionate to the enemy attacks. Iran’s proxies have lobbed rockets or drones at U.S. positions at least 19 times since Oct. 17. One U.S. contractor died after suffering a cardiac event while ducking for cover. Some 21 U.S. service members have been injured. The restrained U.S. response is intended as a warning, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin implied more could follow if the militias keep it up. No doubt President Biden aims to avoid a larger regional conflict. But a better example for restoring deterrence is former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in Syria in 2018 when Russia’s Wagner Group and Bashar al-Assad fighters attacked a U.S. military position. As Gen. Mattis told Congress, he directed the attacking force “to be annihilated. And it was.” The Wagner Group and other malign actors absorbed the lesson of that furious military response. The risk now is that Iran thinks it can continue to launch rockets at Americans at a manageable price. Secretary Austin also said the U.S. response was “separate and distinct from the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.” But everyone paying attention knows that’s not true. Why pretend otherwise? Like Hamas, the militias from Yemen to Iraq and Syria are equipped, trained and financed by the IRGC. They don’t act without Iran’s assent. Iran is also stirring up the West Bank and harassing Israel in the north via Hezbollah in Lebanon. Telling Americans that the strikes have nothing to do with Hamas disguises the nature of the Middle East challenge and the source of the problem. The Biden Administration deserves credit for equating Hamas with Islamic State and trying to mobilize an international coalition to eliminate the terrorist group. But without changing American policy toward Iran, the threat will persist. Mr. Biden will have to drop the fantasies of a nuclear deal, enforce sanctions on oil and missiles instead of winking at violations, and restore maximum pressure on Tehran. That could include covert aid to the dissidents inside Iran so the Ayatollahs feel pressure at home.”  See “A Weak Response to Iran’s Attacks,” WSJ, 10-27-23.

Oops.  Another Hamas projectile doesn’t hit its target, meant for Eilat, Israel, but slammed into Taba, opposite the Israeli side of the border.  Identified as either a drone or missile, it fell near a medical facility in the Egyptian Red Sea resort town of Taba, and injured six people Egypt’s per Al Qahera News reports.  Images online and in Egyptian media showed a damaged building and exploded vehicles.  “Fallen drone injures six in Egypt town near Israel: army,” AFP, Arab News, 10-27-23.

This is what I’m waiting for on 10-27 after this 10-26 story below — “Information about the specific targets and other details were not yet provided” to determine if our attacks were simply the same amount of force, not enough force, or provide a real deterrent and message to the Ayatollah.  “US strikes Iran-linked sites in Syria in retaliation for attacks on US troops,” AP, 10-26-23.  There have been 12 attacks on U.S. bases and personnel in Iraq and 4 in Syria since Oct. 17.  21 U.S. personnel were injured in two of those assaults that used drones to target al-Asad Airbase in Iraq and al-Tanf Garrison in Syria.  So, should the U.S. conduct 16 attacks?  Until we know more, two on 10-26 is skimpy.  We want to deter the bad actor, not refuse to punish.

Oops again.  “IDF spokesperson: Hamas’ main operation base is under Gaza’s largest hospital,” I-24, 10-27-23.  Will Iran denounce Hamas’ use of a hospital as a violation of international law?  It is Shifa Hospital.  See also “Hamas’s key operation center underneath Gaza’s largest hospital,” I24, 10-27-23.  “Hamas routinely and in an emergency uses humanitarian infrastructure in the Gaza Strip for the benefit of its terrorist activities while utilizing the humanitarian shelter to protect its terrorists and the leaders of the terrorist organization.”

“Iran Warns of New Fronts Against the US If Gaza War Drags On,” Bloomberg, 10-27-23.  Considering that Iran’s FM says his country doesn’t control these various groups who would attack the U.S., he certainly seems to know a lot about their intentions.

This important story is now also being carried by Al Arabiya (significance is Saudi control) after its publication by the WSJ and then other Western outlets.  “Hundreds of Hamas fighters trained in Iran ahead of Oct 7 attack on Israel: Report,” Al Arabiya, 10-26-23.

I was asked recently if the war started by Hamas would widen (would Iran order Hezbollah into the fight, etc.), and I responded with three thoughts.  First, the Supreme Leader is ill, and has shown no proclivity to diminish Iran’s aggressive policies and actions in the Middle East over the past few years.  In this sense he has nothing to lose.  Second, I said that Iran is becoming more of a thugocracy instead of a theocracy over the past ten years plus as it becomes more authoritarian and militaristic and more like a mafia.  The IRGC controls so much of the economy and the politics.  Those generals and their military supporters have been enriched and only want more.  Last, I see stories like the following, which are evidence that overall Iran is not moderating its radical actions in the region.  See “Iran-Sudan Rapprochement Threatens to Deepen Deadly Civil War,” Bloomberg, 10-26-23.  So, I have to write this, that unless the Supreme Leader becomes convinced that Iran needs to wait until a better time, he will give a green light to Hezbollah to open a full-scale attack.

This is an example of how the dysfunctional UN allows Iran to continue forward through Hamas—two powerful nation-states do not hold Iran or Hamas accountable.  “The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Wednesday voted on two resolutions regarding the Israel-Hamas war. Russia and China vetoed the text suggested by the U.S that called for humanitarian pauses. In contrast, a rival Russian-drafted resolution called for ceasefire and failed to win the minimum number of votes. Only Russia, China, the UAE and Gabon voted in favor.”  See “LIVEBLOG: As more aid trucks enter Gaza, Hamas rockets rain down on southern, central Israel,” I24 News, 10-26-23.

“Iran foreign minister to meet with Guterres ahead of UN vote on Israel-Hamas War,” Times of Israel, 3-26-23.  Here are two quotes of note from the story:

“Iran’s support for Hamas has been extensive over the years, with the Iranian government providing the terrorist group with weapons, technology, and financial aid to the estimated tune of $100 million a year, among other things. In addition to its support for Hamas, Iran continues to back other destabilizing forces in the region, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.”

“Earlier this week, Israel stopped issuing visas to UN officials after Guterres implied that Hamas’s October 7 massacre was caused by Israel’s treatment of Palestinians and Palestinian territories. “It is important to also recognize the attacks by Hamas did not happen in a vacuum,” he said in his strongly criticized remarks. “The Palestinian people have been subjected to 56 years of suffocating occupation. They have seen their land steadily devoured by settlements and plagued by violence; their economy stifled; their people displaced and their homes demolished. Their hopes for a political solution to their plight have been vanishing.” Contrary to Guterres’s statement, Israel has not had any military or civilian presence in the Gaza Strip since its unilateral withdrawal in 2005. Since then, both Israel and Egypt have maintained tight control of Gaza’s borders in response to the ruling terror group’s years of rocket fire and attacks against Israel.”  In short, Sec. Gen. Guterres simply doesn’t understand—this war is the fault of Hamas (and Iran); it is not the fault of Israel.  Guterres’ internal ability to separate and understand the horrid actions of Hamas from the other issue of the Palestinians seems to be blinded.

In this blog I’ve already declared that since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks that Iran is attacking the U.S.  (see my Oct. 24 entry).  Iran is at war with America.  But they’ve actually been advocating death to this country since 1979, and have killed thousands of Americans since that time.  So don’t be surprised by more attacks when you see headlines like this one, “Amid raging war, Iran leader says, ‘US a ‘definite accomplice’ in Israeli crimes’,” India Today, 10-26-23.

If the U.S. only hit two sites (after Iran attacked 16 U.S. bases and sites), the main question will not be whether it is a proportional or defensive response but rather if it will deter future Iranian attacks.  That should be the standard as Iran will only respect force they cannot defeat.  “U.S. hits sites in Syria as Gaza aid ‘barely trickles in,” BBC, 10-26-23.

“A colossal Israel-Iran war is much closer than anyone imagines,” Telegraph, 10-26-23.

Imperial Kitten is still alive.  “Iran APT Targets the Mediterranean With Watering-Hole Attacks,” 10-26-23.

Since Iran started this, why should they be allowed to negotiate with themselves?  “Iran says it ‘stands ready’ to play role in Gaza hostage release deal,” Times of Israel, 10-26-23.

“Israel says Hamas used N.Korea, Iran weapons in attack,” Times of Israel, 10-26-23.

The Ayatollah will not like reading this story (and it seems that it could be buried among other Oct. 25 stories); the good news is also that despite authoritarianism around the world (not just in the Middle East) and radical Islam, there is still the desire for freedom.  “Saudi crown prince indicates Israel normalization can resume after war – White House,” Times of Israel, 10-25-23.

“Iran ordered recent attacks by allies in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, says Israel,” Deccan Herald, 10-25-23.

“Hamas Fighters Trained in Iran Before Oct. 7 Attacks,” Wall Street Journal, 10-25-23.   “In the weeks leading up to Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, hundreds of the Palestinian Islamist militant group’s fighters received specialized combat training in Iran, according to people familiar with intelligence related to the assault. Roughly 500 militants from Hamas and an allied group, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, participated in the exercises in September, which were led by officers of the Quds Force, the foreign-operations arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the people said. Senior Palestinian officials and Iranian Brig. Gen. Esmail Qaani, the head of Quds Force, also attended, they said.”

Quote of the Day—“The orders come from one place—Iran,” IDF military spokesman Daniel Hagari.  See “Israeli Military Spokesman Says Iran Provided Support, Training to Hamas,” WSJ, 10-25-23.

(Another) Quote of the Day. “Hamas is not a terrorist organization, it is a liberation group, mujahideen waging a battle to protect its lands and people.”  Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.  See “Turkey’s Erdogan: Hamas aren’t terrorists, they’re a liberation group,” Jerusalem Post, 10-25-23.  Turkey’s harboring of several top leaders of Hamas colors this story.  This has been going on for years.  See “Hamas Still Finds Harbor in Turkey,” Washington Examiner, 6-8-16.

Iran is attacking the U.S.  “Iranian-Backed Militias Mount New Wave of Attacks as U.S. Supports Israel,” WSJ, 10-24-23.  “For more than six months, these Iranian-backed militia groups refrained from launching drones or rockets against American troops in Iraq and Syria, as part of what appeared to be an undeclared truce between Tehran and Washington. That came to an abrupt end when U.S. officials said that Iran-backed groups launched 10 drone and rocket attacks against bases that U.S. troops use in Iraq and another three on a U.S. base in southeast Syria. The attacks were carried out between Oct. 17 and Oct. 24. In one of the attacks at al-Asad air base in Iraq last week, U.S. troops shot a militia group’s drone out of the sky, where it fell atop of an American drone and destroyed it, U.S. military officials said. In Yemen, the Iranian-backed Houthis also fired five Iranian-provided cruise missiles and launched about 30 drones toward Israel in an attack that was larger than initially described by the Pentagon, U.S. officials said. Last week, the USS Carney guided missile cruiser, which was operating in the northern Red Sea, shot down four of the cruise missiles while a fifth cruise missile was intercepted by Saudi Arabia as it protected its airspace, according to people familiar with the episode. Those cruise missiles have a range of more than 2,000 kilometers (about 1,240 miles), the Pentagon said Tuesday, which would enable them to reach targets in Israel.”

It is this thinking, equating the absolute massacre of people by terror groups/states (Hamas, Iran) with the legitimate right to exist and flourish (Israel) that frustrate so many of us.  Secretary-General Antonio Guterres needs to come to grips that there are normal countries and there are countries that are taking the world in a bad direction.  Countries are not equal.  Votes in the General Assembly may have equal weight individually, but taking the morality out of the United Nations leads to distorted results.  And less human progress.  And more war.  “UN chief says Hamas massacre ‘didn’t happen in a vacuum’,” I24 News, 10-24-23.

“Iran’s ayatollahs play the Middle East’s most dangerous game,” Economist, Mint, 10-24-23.

“After Hamas’s massacre, clarity on the Iran-China-Russia threat is vital,” Washington Post, 10-24-23.

“Iran Update, October 24, 2023,” Critical Threats, 10-24-23.

“Why Iran Desperate To Finish This Pipeline,” OilPrice.com, 10-24-23.  “Iran has long been desperate to create a permanent ‘land bridge’ from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea by which it could exponentially increase the scale and scope of weapons delivery into southern Lebanon and the Golan Heights area of Syria. These would have a huge force multiplier effect for Iran’s own Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria – and for its proxy Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine – to use in attacks on Israel. This cornerstone policy of Iran since its 1979 Islamic Revolution was always geared towards provoking a broader conflict in the Middle East that would draw in the U.S. and its allies into an unwinnable war of the sort seen recently in Iraq and Afghanistan. The aim of this on Iran’s part was to unite the world’s Islamic countries against what it believes to be an existential battle against the broadly Judeo-Christian democratic alliance of the West, with the U.S. at its centre.”

So, I saw this story.  There is a split of opinion on the reason of a black flag.  While it is difficult to be in the mind of those controlling the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, I’m willing to accept the AP reporter/investigator’s position that it is a flag of mourning after the Gaza hospital missile explosion, and is not a black flag of Muslim war.  What I’m not willing, though, to accept is if the AP won’t go further and investigate whether it was an Israel or PIJ missile.  If AP won’t investigate the veracity of the underlying issue, we should ask why AP won’t check those important facts.  See “A black flag over Iran’s Imam Reza shrine isn’t a war cry. It represents mourning for Gaza victims,” by Philip Marcelo, AP, 10-24-23.  And I’ve included below the text of the email I sent Mr. Marcelo on 10-24-23.  We’ll see if he or AP responds.  “Mr. Marcelo: Thank you for the AP coverage regarding the black flag at the Imam Reza shrine.  As a professor of international relations, I value giving information to my students that is as accurate as possible. Will you or another investigator/reporter be able to look at the related and underlying question of whether Israel fired the missile that hit at the hospital in Gaza? Thank you, Neal Coates, ACU Department of Political Science & Criminal Justice

A great article, making the point that when the cat is gone the mice will play.  We should all ask, why is it that bad things happen when the U.S. is not around and Russia and China are in town?  See “Iran makes two moves, US carriers shift, and today China rules the Gulf,” Telegraph, 10-24-23.

“If this war stops Israeli-Saudi normalization, then Iran wins,” The Hill, 10-24-23.

Since there is not a claim of self-defense by Iran, this threat of violence is a violation of the UN Charter.  I wonder if any countries will point this out?  “IRGC official: Iran will ‘strike Haifa’ if Israel invades Gaza Strip,” MEMO, 10-24-23.

“Iran’s Raisi blames ‘lack of unity’ among Muslim countries for Israeli war on Hamas,” Times of Israel, 10-24-23.

“The Axis of Resistance Has Been Gathering Strength,” Atlantic, 10-24-23.

“Opinion  After Hamas’s massacre, clarity on the Iran-China-Russia threat is vital,” WPost, 10-24-23.

It is irresponsible and misleading for Reuters to put out this type of headline.  Rarely, whether in wartime or otherwise, does a terror leader give a recordable order to attack.  The headline is “No direct Iran order for proxies to attack US troops, Pentagon says,” Reuters, 10-23-23.  Instead, we see a statement such as the first sentence, “The United States has not seen a direct order from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to attack U.S. troops in the region, the Pentagon said on Monday following a rise in attacks in Iraq and Syria by suspected Iran-backed groups.”  Thank you Sherlock Reuters.

Give credit when it is due—Reuters got this headline right.  “White House says Iran ‘actively facilitating’ some attacks on US military bases,” Reuters, 10-23-23.

“US Government Issues Iran Ballistic Missile Procurement Advisory,” Sanctions News, 10-23-23.

Remember that Hamas didn’t invent tunnels.  Nor do they plan and operate them by themselves.  “’It’s like being underwater’: What Israeli soldiers will face inside the labyrinth of Hamas tunnels,” NBC, 10-23-23.

“Intelligence shows Iranian-backed militias are ready to ramp up their attacks against US forces in the Middle East,” CNN, 10-23-23.

222 hostages, 4 have been freed.  No one in the media is asking yet who told Hamas to release the 4.  “Hamas frees 2 Israeli women as U.S. advises delaying ground war to allow talks on captives,” AP, Politico, 10-23-23.

Three minutes!  “Amnesty International earlier this month called for an independent investigation into what happened to Geravand, saying there was “mounting evidence of a cover-up by the authorities.”  Amnesty said it had analyzed footage published by Iranian media that purportedly shows there was no altercation and found that the footage has been edited, the frame rate increased and over three minutes of footage is missing.”  See “Iranian teen Armita Geravand has “no hope of recovery” after controversial train incident, her family says,” CBS, 10-23-23.

Russia again facilitates.  Wouldn’t it be great if the UN Sec. Gen. calls Russia and China out for assisting Iran?  “Russia, Iran strengthen ties in ‘trusting’ atmosphere -Russian foreign ministry,” Reuters, 10-23-23.

It is more a question of the fewer number of border crossings.  “China Leaves Iran Out Of Major Investment Projects,” Iran International, 10-23-23.

“Iran’s ayatollahs play the Middle East’s most dangerous game,” Economist, 10-23-23.  “They want to escalate without triggering full-blown war.”

“Hamas’ online infrastructure reveals ties to Iran APT, researchers say,” CSO, 10-23-23.

“Iran Seeks Silent Burial Of Injured Teen To Avoid Protests,” Iran International, 10-23-23.

“Iran must safeguard basic freedoms and protect human rights: UN expert,” UN HRC, 10-23-23.

U.S., French, Canadian investigations of the incident support the Israeli evidence.  And a church leader speaks up.  “No proof Israel bombed hospital, Archbishop of Canterbury says,” I-24, 10-22-23.

The Regime claimed she hit her head on a subway pole upon entry into the car.  Now she’s brain dead?  “Iranian teenager ‘brain dead’ after alleged metro encounter with police,” Guardian, 10-22-23.

“Iran sentences 2 journalists for collaborating with US. Both covered Mahsa Amini’s death,” El Paso, Inc., 10-22-23.