Month: October 2023

Do not let headlines fool us.  I’ve chosen the same outlet, WSJ, to run today’s story that you will see in multiple news sources, because WSJ broke the original story that Iran greenlighted the Israel attack.  The other factor to consider is that in today’s WSJ story it  says “The unclassified intelligence assessment doesn’t address the October meeting.”  Last, all you need to know is that at the October (and some of the other meetings) was present Quds Force head Quaani and FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.  (The Iranian leaders met with Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, Islamic Jihad leader al-Nakhalah, and Hamas’ military chief Saleh al-Arouri).  And they both report to the Supreme Leader.  Case closed.  Today’s story is  “Iran Knew Hamas Was Planning Attacks, but Not Timing or Scale, U.S. Says,” WSJ, 10-11-23.

And for good measure, I will include this Quote of the Day, from the Oct. 8 WSJ article that broke the Iran-responsibility story (and you can find in my blog):  “An attack of such scope could only have happened after months of planning and would not have happened without coordination with Iran.  Hamas, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, does not single-handedly make decisions to engage in war without prior explicit agreement from Iran.”  — Lina Khatib, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute at the University of London.

 

“Hamas Leadership Confirm Iran’s Role In Planning, Executing Terror Attacks Against Israel,” Counter Extremism Project, Press Release, 10-11-23.

“Senior officials of U.S.-designated terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah confirmed that the Islamic Republic of Iran had a central role in planning and authorizing the terrorist attacks launched against Israel on Saturday that killed hundreds of Israelis, wounded thousands more, and resulted in Israelis, Americans, Thais, and potentially citizens of other nations being taken hostage by Palestinian terror groups Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

Separately, Hamas spokesperson Ghazi Hamad confirmed to the BBC that the terror organization had “direct backing for the attack” from Iran. And the United States has stated that Iran was ‘broadly complicit’ in the Hamas attack and is responsible for backing and training Hamas, ‘without a doubt.’

Hamas and Hezbollah officials told the Wall Street Journal that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers met with senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders recently in Beirut to “refine” details of the terror attack before Hamas began its assault on October 7. The broader goal, according to Iranian, Hamas, and Hezbollah officials, is to create a “multi-front threat” that can “strangle Israel from all sides.”

Qatar, which has provided significant financing to Hamas, harbors Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Meshaal, as well as Hamas political bureau member Izzat al-Rishq and spokesman Husam Badran. They live and work openly in Doha, where Haniyeh and other Hamas leaders watched the attack on Israel unfold. After Hamas began its attack Saturday, Qatar issued a call for calm but held Israel “solely responsible” for the escalation. Qatar should immediately detain members of Hamas, so they can be held accountable for its continued support of the group.

Turkey, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, allows Hamas to conduct military training exercises in the country and maintain a bureau in Istanbul from which it has coordinated terror attacks against Israel. Hamas also maintains an investment portfolios “worth hundreds of millions of dollars in companies across the Middle East” that is reportedly managed in Turkey by businesses including Trend Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S., which the United States designated in May 2022. The Counter Extremism Project (CEP) maintains its call for Turkey to expel or arrest all members of Hamas currently domiciled or operating in Turkey.

Since April 2023, Iran has been rallying its proxies to launch coordinated attacks on Israel, with Hamas carrying out a series of brazen attacks on Israelis in the West Bank and Tel Aviv as Hezbollah has ratcheted up tensions with Israel near the Golan Heights. Iran, however, is not the only state actor that support Hamas and other Palestinian terror groups.”

“Biden Weighs Freezing $6 Billion for Iran After Hamas Attack on Israel,” Bloomberg, 10-11-23.

“Health of Iranian Teen in Coma Worsens, Media Report,” VOA, AFP, 10-11-23.

“Venezuela’s Growing Dark Fleet Highlights Maduro’s Dependence On Iran,” OilPrice.com, 10-11-23.

Seeing this article about Senate Dem.s up for re-election and their call to freeze the $6B, it occurs to me that if the USG concludes that Iran is responsible, that no only has Iran forfeited any claim to the oil monies, but that the Administration should give the $6B funds to Israel for security and reconstruction from Iran’s attack by proxy.  See “Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Jacky Rosen, Tammy Baldwin, Bob Casey demand Biden ‘refreeze’ $6B in Iran assets,” NYPost, 10-11-23.

In that Iran provided, at a minimum, financial support and funding and materials for the Hamas brutality, and public approval after the fact, AND does nothing to prevent future attacks, let me be the first to say let’s penalize Iran and withdraw the $6 billion.  Here is a story about hostage blackmail funds, and which makes the point the money is fungible–Iran could indirectly use the money to finance terror by freeing up other funds.  “Iran’s $6B in unfrozen funds: What to know,” Fox Business, 10-10-23.

Quote of the Day:  “We kiss the foreheads and arms of the resourceful and intelligent designers”—Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  “Iran’s Supreme Leader Issues Tehran’s Latest Denial of Involvement in Israel Attacks,” New York Times, 10-10-23.

“Macron hints at Iran’s Involvement in Hamas Attacks,” Politico, 10-10-23.

It turns out that some in the Senate have the same thought as I penned earlier today.  “Nebraska senator joins 19 Republicans appealing transfer of $6 billion to Iran,” WOWT, 10-10-23.

“An Acrimonious Saga: Confronting Iran,” Geopolitical Monitor, 10-10-23.

Flashback—to just over a year, when in a serious escalation PIJ shot many rockets from Gaza, and Israel fought back.  Here’s an instructive quote (recorded at that time in this blog) from Israeli Brig. Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi.  “The military operation in Gaza began with an interception of a terror squad on its way to carry out an attack on Israel. This sort of attack, challenging the highest levels [of decision makers] in Israel, wouldn’t just require approval from Tehran, but is most likely an Iranian initiative. As we speak, the PIJ leader, [the Syria-based] Ziyad al-Nakhalah, is in Tehran, meeting the Iranian president and the IRGC commander. PIJ is an absolute proxy of Iran. Tehran funds it and runs it.”  See “Iran ‘almost certainly’ to blame for escalation – former Israeli general,” Jerusalem Post, 8-8-22.

One important question remaining is Who ordered the barbarism?  The widespread simultaneous carnage by multiple Gaza terrorists indicates they had been ordered to do the atrocities, but by Hamas?  By the IRGC/Quds Force?  “‘You see the babies, the mothers, the fathers in their bedrooms and how the terrorists killed’,” AP, 10-10-23.

“Iran is seeking Russian assistance for a new spy satellite: reports,” Space.com, 10-10-23.

“U.S. investigating whether Iran gave advanced training to Hamas militants,” NBC, 10-10-23.  Subtitle—“Current and former U.S. officials say decades of Iranian arms, funding and training made the worst terrorist attack on Israel in decades possible.”  Here is portion, about Iran and Hamas and PIJ missiles–“In an interview in 2021, Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force, said that Gaza and Lebanon were at the forefront of the battle against Israel and that “everything you see of their missile capability has been supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran.” “Instead of giving them a fish or teaching them to catch a fish,” he said, “we taught our allies and friends how to make a hook and they are now in possession of missile capabilities and technologies.” Iran’s relationship with Hamas dates to the early 1990s, when the group first rose to prominence in Gaza. Iran hosted its leaders at conferences in Tehran in a bid to promote a hard-line alternative to Fatah, the Palestinian party engaging in Arab-Israeli peace talks at the time. Iranian officials invited Hamas militants to training camps set up for Tehran’s proxies in the region. After it initially provided Hamas with weapons smuggled into Gaza, Iran helped the group manufacture its own rockets locally, based on Iranian designs and technology, according to security experts. Members of Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps taught Hamas engineers how to make short-range rockets from everyday materials such as sugar and pipes, said Ido Levy of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. By 2012, Hamas was firing long-range Iranian Fajr-5 rockets at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Hamas has made steady progress since then in its ability to quickly launch large numbers of rockets and to strike targets up to 45 miles away.”

Another Quote of the Day from the Supreme Leader, after the Hamas slaughter of over 1,000 Israelis: “God willing, the cancer of the usurper Zionist regime will be eradicated at the hands of the Palestinian people and the Resistance forces throughout the region.”  He wrote on his official X account.  “Biden’s Iran Policy Blamed For Hamas Attack On Israel,” Iran International, 10-10-23.

“Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group Heading to Eastern Mediterranean to Deter Hezbollah, Iran,” USNI News, 10-9-23.

“According to an Oct. 8 report by The Wall Street Journal citing senior Hamas and Hezbollah members, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) helped plan the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel that killed more than 900 Israelis and resulted in the kidnapping of more than 100 people. The report said that beginning in August, senior IRGC officials — including, at times, Quds Force commander Esmail Ghaani and, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian — met biweekly with Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Hezbollah to plan the attack, which Iran allegedly gave its final approval for on Oct. 2.”  “Iran’s Potential Motives for Backing the Hamas Attack on Israel,” Rane, 10-9-23.

A reminder that the people are not the Regime.  “Iranians Reject Regime Sentiment On Hamas War,” Iran International, 10-9-23.

That NPR runs this story below is so out of place with reality and ignores any causation from the Regime.  The interviewee, Diana Buttu, only speaks of IDF violence/occupation, and says nothing of violence over the years by Hamas itself against Palestinians.  She says everything is Israel’s fault.  But the reality is that Hamas commits so many atrocities against its own people—this is Iranian-encouraged (and funded) violence in Gaza against Palestinians.  Gazans should instead arise against what is right in front of them, and not attack Israel, Egypt, Jordan, etc.—Hamas is what is holding the people back.  “Palestinians ask nations to press Israel to end reprisal attacks on civilians,” NPR, 10-9-23.

“Israel says Iran supports Hamas to the tune of some $100 million dollars a year,” CNN, 10-9-23.

“Hamas, Hezbollah officials claim Iran helped plan attack on Israel – report,” I24, 10-9-23.

“Opinion: Iran Is Already the Winner of Fighting Between Israel and Hamas,” Kyiv Post, 10-9-23.

This confirms my initial thoughts, and other persons who follow Iran’s regional terror and strategy.  And this will put pressure on Israel to attack Iran directly.  “Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks,” Wall Street Journal, 10-8-23.  “Leading the effort … has been Ismail Qaani, the leader of the IRGC’s international military arm, the Quds Force.  …  Representatives of these groups [Hamas, Hezbollah, etc.] have met with Quds Force leaders at least biweekly in Lebanon since August to discuss this weekend’s attack on Israel and what happens next, they said. Qaani has attended some of those meetings along with Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, Islamic Jihad leader al-Nakhalah, and Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas’s military chief, the militant-group members said.  Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian attended at least two of the meetings, they said. ”  And the motivation?  “Building on peace deals with Egypt and Jordan, expanding Israeli ties with Gulf Arab states could create a chain of American allies linking three key choke points of global trade—the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab Al Mandeb connecting the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea, said Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.  “That’s very bad news for Iran,” Ibish said. “If they could do this, the strategic map changes dramatically to Iran’s detriment.””

“Hamas attack bears hallmarks of Iranian involvement, former U.S. officials say,” NBC, 10-8-23.  Key observations—“Marc Polymeropoulos, a former CIA officer who specialized in counterterrorism, the Middle East and South Asia, said on X that it will be critical for intelligence agencies to determine the precise role Iran played in the surprise assault. “The difference between ‘directing’ the attack and giving the actual green light” versus “‘coordinating’ may be difference between war with Iran or not,” he said. For decades, Iran has tried to counter technologically superior adversaries through guerrilla or low-tech methods, swarming warships with smaller speed boats, firing barrages of rockets, using drones and missiles to undercut opposing air forces and abducting foreign nationals, U.S. officials and analysts say. When one of Iran’s proxies, whether they are Shiite militias in Iraq, Houthi forces in Yemen or Hamas in Gaza, demonstrate a significant advance in military sophistication, it is usually a sign that Tehran has lent a helping hand, said Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “This was the case with the Houthi takeover of Yemen and with the Lebanese Hezbollah defense against Israel in 2006,” Knights said. Striking Israel simultaneously at a variety of locations with rockets, small guerrilla cells, kidnapping units and fast boats “reeks of Iranian training, weapons provision, probably Iranian intelligence,“ said Colin Clarke, a senior researcher at the Soufan Center, a nonprofit organization that focuses on global security. “This was a full-on assault from multiple entry points. I have to believe the Iranians are playing a role,” he said. A central question is how Hamas members were able to breach Israel’s fortified border with Gaza, which consists of a series of fences, security posts, regular patrols, sophisticated cameras and ground motion sensors. That Hamas militants were able to cross over with relative ease at multiple points on the border raises the possibility that the militants may have jammed the cameras and electronic sensors, depriving the Israelis of an early warning as the attack began, said Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral who recently visited the border area.”

Remember, Iran uses hostages for its foreign policy.  Hamas has learned this lesson well from Iran (supplier of training, funding, weapons, missiles), and now apparently has scores, including elderly, women, and children. Dastardly.  “Israelis feverishly search for relatives at rave attacked by Hamas,” I24, 10-8-23.

With all respect, Sec. Blinken has it wrong.  The $6 billion hostage exchange amount absolutely plays into the attack by Hamas against Israel.  Sec. Blinken tried to make the case that no dollars have been exchanged, therefore it is impossible for the $6B to have been used.  This is disingenuous.  First, the money is delayed future payment—it is assuredly coming, and can replace amounts already spent or being spent at present.  Second, it is encouragement/support for past bad acts.  Third, it emboldens terrorists to pay ransom (especially huge ransom).  So yes, in a very real sense the gift was given which compensates Iran for such acts as prepping Hamas for this attack.  And yes, in a very real sense we should remember the $6B was being negotiated as the attacks against Israel were being planned—and yes, Iran knew these attacks would happened (for example, the day prior, Hezbollah told the UN observers in southern Lebanon to stay on their base.  BTW, if this was money Iran could have unlocked on its own, it would have done so years ago.  Blinken’s saying no U.S. tax monies were involved masks the issue of appeasement.  “Blinken pushes back against GOP claims that Iran hostage deal funded Hamas attack,” CNN, 10-8-23.

“At least 130 Israelis held hostage in Gaza,” Politico, 10-8-23.

“The Iran-Gaza War,” WSJ, 10-8-23.  Precisely correct article.

The Ayatollah ordered the attack as a message to Saudi Arabia—don’t make peace with Israel.  Here is a quote from one of the many stories—“The Iran-backed Hizbollah militant group in Lebanon said the attack was a “message” to countries such as Saudi Arabia that are seeking to normalise diplomatic relations with Israel. It said it was “direct in contact with the leadership of the Palestinian resistance”. Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, who advises Iran’s supreme leader on military issues, said Tehran “backs [Hamas’s] operation” and that “we believe the resistance movement also supports it” — a reference to other militant groups in the Middle East.”  See “Netanyahu says Israel is at war after Hamas launches multi-front assault,” Financial Times, 10-7-23.

This article makes me think immediately of what Israel already knows—what happens if 100,000 missiles from Hezbollah (supposedly most of its stock) are shot simultaneously from Lebanon into northern Israel.  Second, the analyst in the CNN story is correct that Egypt and Qatar have to be mad at Hamas and Iran for this attack.  But I will add this, that it puts back the idea of a Palestinian state.  “Intelligence analyst: ‘Tactically’ nothing like this has ever happened,” CNN, 10-7-23.

“Israel: Over 150 dead, 1,000 wounded, scores captured by Hamas,” I24, 10-7-23.

“Iran says Hamas offensive a sign of ‘confidence’,” I24, 10-7-23.

A senior Iranian government advisor explicitly endorsed Hamas in the conflict, the most direct support for the militant group from any government official globally. “We congratulate the Palestinian fighters,” advisor Yahya Rahim Safavi said, according to state media via Reuters. “We will stand by the Palestinian fighters until the liberation of Palestine and Jerusalem.” Iran state media showed video of parliament members chanting in support of Hamas on Saturday, saying “Death to Israel” and “Palestine is victorious, Israel will be destroyed”. Iran has funded and supplied Hamas for years as part of its decades-long conflict with Israel.  “Adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader expresses support for Palestinian attacks -Iranian media,” Reuters, 10-7-23.

“The Hamas Assault Lies at Iran’s Feet,” National Review, 10-7-23.

“She entered the subway without a headscarf. What happened next?,” NBC News, 10-7-23.

They mean what they (repeatedly) say.  “Iran Parliament Chants Death To Israel And America Amid Hamas Attack Video,” Times Now, 10-7-23.

“Iran’s jailed rights advocate Narges Mohammadi wins 2023 Nobel Peace Prize,” Al Jazeera, 10-6-23.

“Football row highlights underlying contentions between Iran, Saudi Arabia,” Amwaj, 10-6-23.

“Iran urged to release full CCTV of what led to teenage girl’s coma,” Guardian, 10-5-23.

“Iran’s Struggle With Repression and Economic Exploitation,” Iran News Update, 10-5-23.

Now we know—the Regime attacked the girl.  (there is no reason to arrest the mother otherwise).  “Iran Detains Mother Of Teen In Coma After Metro Incident: Report,” AFP, 10-5-23.

“Iranian Authorities Threaten Classmates of Hospitalized Girl,” Iran Wire, 10-5-23.

“Iranian Armed Forces will react if Baku seizes corridor in Armenia,” JAM, 10-5-23.

Russia is a dangerous facilitator.  “Why does Vladimir Putin want Russia to get closer to Iran? – analysis,” Jerusalem Post, 10-5-23.

“With 16-Year-Old In Coma, Iran Faces Another Mahsa Amini Scenario,” Iran International, 10-4-23.

Why doesn’t someone ask the women who pulled the girl off the train, to tell us what happened on the train (and out of view of the surveillance cameras)?  “Iranian girl in coma after alleged assault on metro by morality police,” AFP and Times of Israel, 10-3-23.  The young girl is Armita Garawand, said to have run-in with modesty enforcers.  But the Regime is allowing no visitors to see her, not even her family.  That is probably a sign she was beaten, along with the poor story of officials who say she fainted due to low blood pressure.

Will the seizure and redirection of Iran’s bullets get the radical regime’s attention?  “Seized and Forfeited Lethal Aid Materiels,” US CENTCOM PR, 10-3-23.

The Iranians placed three busts of Solemani at the field level.  “Saudi soccer team refuses to play in Iran over busts of slain general, in potential diplomatic row,” AP, 10-2-23.  Due to the widespread death and mayhem in various countries of the Quds Force leader over multiple years, it is no surprise that Al-Ittihad’s players refused to take to the field after a request to remove the bust was rejected by Sepahan officials.  But, at this point, I don’t think this will affect Iran-SA relations.

“Iran to trade Hezbollah arms to Moscow, Arab tribes in Syria – report,”  Jerusalem Post, 10-2-23.

“Iran, Syria, Venezuela to construct oil refinery in Homs,” MEMO, 10-2-23.

“The tragedy of modern Iran,” Ellsworth American, 10-2-23.

“Politician Says Iran Losing Key Gateway As Azerbaijan Takes Karabakh,” Iran International, 10-2-23.