“US blames group of Iran-backed militias for deadly drone attack in Jordan as it weighs reprisals,” AP, 1-31-24.
“No U.S. threat to Iran will go unanswered, Tehran says,” Reuters, 1-31-24.
“Iran not seeking war with US but ‘not afraid of it’, says military chief,” Guardian, 1-31-24.
“What Is Kataib Hezbollah? Pentagon Deadly Drone Attack Against U.S. Base Had ‘Footprints’ Of Iran-Backed Group,” Forbes, 1-31-24.
Great article about the balancing of Iran—when should it attack, when should it not. The article is also a reminder of why Hezbollah hasn’t fully attacked Israel yet after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks. Nasrallah doesn’t want Israel to invade Lebanon and openly war against Hezbollah, and Nasrallah doesn’t want to die. “Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Faces Moment of Truth After Attacks on Israel, U.S. Base,” WSJ, 1-30-24.
If KH did the attack on Tower 22, this is an attempt to beg for a ceasefire. “Powerful Iran-backed militia in Iraq to suspend military ops against US forces in region,” CNN, 1-30-24. “[T]he most powerful Iran-backed militia in Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah, announced on Tuesday the suspension of its military operations against US forces in the region two days after a drone attack killed three US service members and wounded dozens of others.”
“Iran Update,” Institute for the Study of War, 1-30-24.
“Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah says it suspends attacks on US forces,” Reuters, 1-30-24.
Despite the best efforts of Iran to sow discord through its proxies in the region and by its Hamas attack on Oct. 7, Saudi Arabia just met with Egypt, Jordan, and the PA to emphasize “moving forward with normalization of diplomatic ties with Israel.” See “Saudis, Egypt, Jordan, and PA meet in secret to discuss future of Gaza – report,” Jerusalem Post, 1-29-24.
“U.S. troops killed, wounded in Jordan attack blamed on Iranian proxies,” WPost, 1-29-24.
The King is concerned that Iran will attack Jordan in a variety of ways. This story is an appeal for missile defense, for Patriots from the U.S. “Reuters: Jordan alerts Washington to bolster its defences against Iranian-backed militias,” Ammon News, 1-29-24.
“’Erase his head from his torso’: Iran targets defector on US soil, DOJ says,” USA Today, 1-29-24. “An Iranian and two Canadian nationals were indicted over an alleged plot to murder an Iranian defector and another Maryland resident on U.S. soil, the Justice Department announced Monday. The three alleged conspirators were part of a criminal network targeting Iranian dissidents at Tehran’s direction, according to the department. One defendant, Damion Patrick John Ryan, is a “full-patch member” of the Hells Angels Motorcycle Club, the department said. The plot unfolded from about December, 2020 to March, 2021, according to an indictment filed in Minnesota federal court.
“The United States and United Kingdom Target Iranian Transnational Assassinations Network,” U.S. Department of Treasury, 1-29-24.
“Iranian intelligence used narco trafficker to recruit Hells Angel for planned assassination,” The Record, 1-29-24.
Iran really wants to be attacked on its own soil. “Three US troops killed in drone attack in Jordan, more than 30 injured,” CNN, 1-28-24. “Three US Army soldiers were killed and more than 30 service members were injured in a drone attack overnight on a small US outpost in Jordan, US officials told CNN, marking the first time US troops have been killed by enemy fire in the Middle East since the beginning of the Gaza war. “We shall respond,” President Joe Biden said while speaking in South Carolina on Sunday. The killing of three Americans at Tower 22 in Jordan near the border with Syria [near the al-Tanf base on the Syrian side] is a significant escalation of an already-precarious situation in the Middle East. Officials said the drone was fired by Iran-backed militants and appeared to come from Syria. It is still being determined which militia group specifically is responsible. US Central Command confirmed in a statement Sunday that three service members were killed and at least 34 injured in a one-way drone attack that “impacted at a base in northeast Jordan.””
“‘We shall respond’: Biden warns militants after 3 US troops killed in Jordan,” Politico, 1-28-24.
“Iran Seizes Vessel Carrying ‘Smuggled Fuel’,” RFE/RL, Radio Farda, 1-28-24.
“Iran launches 3 satellites into space as tensions rise,” NPR, 1-28-24.
“Iran To Equip Hovercrafts With Long-Range Missiles,” Eurasia Review, 1-28-24.
“Houthis and Iran are hurting China’s Red Sea trade,” Asia Times, 1-28-24.
“Iran’s Parliament Triples Budget for State Broadcasting, Sparks Controversy,” Iran News Update, 1-27-24.
“Iran-Backed Houthis Continue Red Sea Attacks Hitting Oil Tanker,” Iran International, 1-27-24.
“Iran dismisses European condemnation of satellite launch,” Reuters, 1-27-24.
“Iran’s Parliament Triples Budget for State Broadcasting, Sparks Controversy,” Iran News Update, 1-27-24.
“Iran-Backed Houthis Continue Red Sea Attacks Hitting Oil Tanker,” Iran International, 1-27-24.
“Iran dismisses European condemnation of satellite launch,” Reuters, 1-27-24.
“Iran Update, January 27, 2024,” Critical Threats, 1-27-24.
This is a decision for world order and against the chaos that the Iranian Regime pushes, just as they pushed South Africa and tried to push world opinion against justice and peace. “World Court Rejects Demand for Gaza Cease-Fire,” WSJ, 1-26-24. “The Gaza order stands in contrast to another Genocide Convention case, when in March 2022 the ICJ instructed Russia to cease its military operations in Ukrainian territory. In that order, approved by a similar 13-2 vote, the world court gave no credit to Russia’s claims to have invaded Ukraine in self-defense. In both the Gaza and Ukraine cases, the ICJ’s overwhelming votes appeared to reflect much of world opinion: distress about the human cost of Israel’s Gaza operation while recognizing Israel’s right of self-defense, but outright rejection of Moscow’s pretexts for invading Ukraine. Judges voting for the court’s full order came from countries that have supported Israel, including Australia, France and Germany, as well as from Arab and developing nations aligned with Palestinian cause, such as Brazil, Lebanon, Morocco and Somalia. Judges from America’s rival superpowers, China and Russia, joined the majority, as did the temporary judge South Africa appointed to sit on the case. … Only the Ugandan judge, Julia Sebutinde, dissented across the board. … The U.S. and other Western nations have dismissed the genocide charge against Israel as unwarranted. Speaking earlier this month in Tel Aviv, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the accusation “particularly galling, given that those who are attacking Israel—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, as well as their supporter, Iran—continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews.”
These two stories reveal the differences between a normal country and one not. And they also demonstrate the underlying principles of the U.S., that even with an enemy a message was relayed by the USG to value life. Of course, one can take the position that it is in the interests of the U.S. to be seen in a good light. But I would argue that we didn’t do this to look like a good guy, but that if it helps our relationship with the Iran government than fine, but the Biden Administration did this because at its base this was the right thing to do. (and we warn multiple other countries of things often BTW). See “U.S. Secretly Alerted Iran Ahead of Islamic State Terrorist Attack,” WSJ, 1-26-24. So, who do we believe, the U.S. or Iran? When I’ve asked this question over the years, one country has over time on any difference come out as conveying accurate information. “Iran denies receiving warning from US ahead of ISIS bombings which killed 95 people,” Times of Israel, 1-26-24. Despite the olive branch warning, you’ll recall that even the IRGC head Salami and other high-ranking Iranian officials claimed that Great Satan U.S. and Little Satan Israel were responsible for the ISIS attacks.
“Iran officials told the Chinese that they weren’t in control of the group and that turmoil in the region would end if Israel agreed to a cease-fire, the Iranians said.” Think about it—Iran says they can’t control the groups, but Iran knows how they act. Hmm. See, “Houthis Attack U.S. Warship as China Urges Iran to Rein In Rebels,” WSJ, 1-26-24.
“France, Germany, UK condemn Iran’s launch of Soraya satellite,” Reuters, JPost, 1-26-24.
“Iran Update, January 26, 2024,” Critical Threats, 1-26-24.
“Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah: The Danger From Iran And How To Stop It,” Forbes, 1-26-24.
“After UAV attack, IDF hits Hezbollah airstrip said built by Iran to launch drones,” Times of Israel, 1-25-24.
“Exclusive-China Presses Iran to Rein in Houthi Attacks in Red Sea, Sources Say,” Reuters, USNews, 1-25-24.
“Iran Ignored US Warnings Of Impending ISIS Attack,” Iran International, 1-25-24. “The US passed the warning to Iran more than one week before the Kerman attack” … “of the warning that Islamic State’s affiliate in Afghanistan, ISIS-Khorasan, known as ISIS-K, planned to commit the attacks at the commemoration ceremony of slain Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani.”
“Iran: Rouhani’s ban from key assembly unveils power struggle among political elite,” MEE, 1-25-24.
“Iran, Niger sign 2 cooperation agreements,” Xinhua, 1-25-24.
“Iranian Drones Become Latest Proxy Tool in Sudan’s Civil War,” Bloomberg, 1-24-24. This follows the recent story about Iran recognizing South Sudan. Iran isn’t acting with clean hands.
This is a telling set of stories about lack of accountability and who gets the power in Iran. There aren’t very many “moderates” in at the highest levels of Iranian authority. But there are types of political Shia conservatives. Rouhani is not seen as a hardliner because he was willing to (secretly at first) negotiate with the U.S. But here he is being kept out of future discussions and who can run for the legislature. “Iran bans ex-president Rouhani from running for elite assembly,” Reuters, January 24, 2024. “Iran’s hardline Guardian Council has banned former pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani from standing again in an election in March for the Assembly of Experts, which appoints and can dismiss the supreme leader, state media said on Wednesday. The 88-member assembly, founded in 1982, supervises the most powerful authority but has rarely intervened directly in policy-making. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is 84, so the new assembly is expected to play a significant role in choosing his successor since its members are only elected every eight years. Close to moderates, Rouhani was elected president in a landslide in 2013 and 2017 on a promise to reduce Iran’s diplomatic isolation. But the mid-ranking cleric angered political hardliners who opposed any rapprochement with the U.S. “Great Satan” after reaching a 2015 nuclear pact with six major powers. The deal unravelled in 2018 when then-U.S. President Donald Trump ditched the agreement and reimposed sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy. Efforts to revive the pact have failed. “There was no reason given for the Guardian Council’s decision,” a source close to Rouhani told Reuters, adding that “no decision has been made yet for an appeal” as Rouhani has three days to object. “Rouhani has been a member of the assembly since 1999 for three terms … It will be interesting to see what the reason for his disqualification was.” The 12-member Guardian Council, which oversees elections and legislation, disqualified 80% of candidates running for the assembly in its last election in 2016. Moderate politicians have accused the Guardian Council of disqualifying rivals, and said that excluding candidates from the race undermines the vote’s legitimacy. A low turnout for the upcoming elections is expected, with Rouhani saying last week that the majority of people do not want to vote and that this will favour the ruling minority which relies on low turnout. With Rouhani’s disqualification, the Guardian Council had made it clear that hardliners intended to keep moderates away from the assembly, a pro-reform insider said. The Guardian Council has also disqualified hundreds of hopefuls running for the parliamentary election also to be held on March 1. State media reported that only 30 mid-ranking moderate candidates have been qualified to stand for the 290-seat parliament. Around 12,000 hopefuls will run for parliament, state media reported.”
“Iranian leader heads to Turkey to talk Gaza war with Erdogan,” Times of Israel, 1-24-24. The Regime wants Turkey to cut trade and relations with Israel.
“Deciphering the shadow war between Iran, Israel,” Hindustan Times, 1-24-24.
“US Navy shoots down missiles targeting American cargo ship,” USA Today, 1-24-24.
“U.S. Issues $15 Million Bounty Targeting Alleged Iran Drone Middleman,” WSJ, 1-24-24.
“Turkey, Iran agree on need for regional stability amid Israel’s war on Gaza,” Al Jazeera, 1-24-24.
“Iran drones become latest proxy tool in Sudan’s civil war,” Al Arabiya, 1-24-24.
“Iran’s State TV Aims For Hefty Election Campaign Profits,” Iran International, 1-24-24.
“Kurdish Political Prisoner Executed In Iran,” Iran International, 1-23-24.
“The security forces killed hundreds of protesters and arrested thousands. Many of the detained were accused of “moharebeh,” a broad term that means waging a war on God and is typically punishable with death.” See “Iran Executes 23-Year-Old Man in Further Crackdown on Protests,” NYT, 1-23-24.
““US stages retaliatory airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq, officials say,” ABC, 1-23-24.
“The rise of Iran as a Middle East superpower,” The Straits Times, 1-23-24.
“Mohammad Ghobadlou: Iran executes protester with mental health condition,” BBC, 1-23-24.
“Since November, the Iranian-backed Houthis have launched at least 34 attacks on shipping through the waterways leading up to Egypt’s Suez Canal.” See “US Navy’s Mideast chief says Iran ‘very directly involved’ in Houthi attacks on ships,” 1-23-24.
It is IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah who are aiding the Houthis in Yemen. But for … “Iranian Military Technology and Advisers Aid Houthi Attacks in Red Sea, Officials Say,” WSJ, 1-24-24. “Among other high-end gear, Iran has provided the Houthis with drone jammers and parts for long-range rockets and missiles. The Iranians and their Lebanese Hezbollah allies have sent advisers to Yemen to help the Houthis plan and launch their attacks. … Iran’s assistance to the Houthis is handled by some of the most elite officers in the Revolutionary Guard. The head of Tehran’s operations in the country is Abdolreza Shahlai, who once oversaw attacks on U.S. soldiers in Iraq, the Western security advisers and officials said. He is now wanted by Washington with a $15 million bounty. The Western security advisers and officials said that the transfer of ballistic-missile technologies and training is overseen by Unit 340, which trained Houthi personnel in Iran and Lebanon and is led by Hamid Fazeli, a former head of Iran’s space-rocket program.”
This story is not about China. It’s about Iran’s refusal to give a red light to the Houthis. “US asks China to urge Iran to curb Red Sea attacks by Houthis -FT,” Reuters, 1-23-24.
“Iran: 2 Detainees Executed, 11 Await Imminent Execution,” Human Rights Watch, 1-23-24.
Controlling access to the ballot, along with who is on the ballot, is a mark of dictatorship. “Iran’s Regime Effectively Ends Election Weeks Before Voting Day,” Iran International, 1-23-24. “Iran’s ruling hardliners have crushed the election hopes of reformists and moderates in the parliamentary vote on March 1 by disqualifying nearly all their candidates.”
Iran has allowed women and children to be targeted, in multiple places and times. And the Navy doesn’t fabricate Iran smuggling. “Iran’s top diplomat says risk of war in the Middle East ‘has gone up,’ blames US,” ABC, 1-23-24. FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian says, “We consider Hamas a Palestinian liberation group that is standing against occupation,” Amir-Abdollahian said. “Of course, we never approved the killing of women and children, civilians anywhere in the world. We never support it.” He also says regarding the evidence provided over the years and currently from the Pentagon of Iran weapons smuggling is a fabrication. “Mostly, this is a TV show,” he asserted, even though the United Nations and other foreign governments have documented similar arms transfers from Iran.” The families of the SEALs know differently.
Russia gets extraction in the Caspian plus access to some airfields and ports. Iran gets increased military cooperation and trade, plus a 20 year agreement compatible with its 25 year agreement with China. See “Russia And Iran Finalize 20-Year Deal That Will Change The Middle East Forever,” OilPrice.com, 1-22-24.
Mismanagement and Corruption. “A thirsty reality: Iran’s dire water situation,” Atlantic Council, 1-22-24.
“Iran World’s Top Executioner With Three Hanged Daily,” Iran International, 1-22-24.
“In a complete collapse of judicial process, Ghobadlou’s defense was informed of the decision to hang him with half a day’s notice. Attorney Amir Raisian published the notice on his X account, saying that the execution would amount to “murder”, since the initial verdict had been overturned and his client had a right to appeal.” See “Iran Hangs Protester Whose Sentence Was Overturned,” Iran International, 1-22-24.
“US Announces New Sanctions Against Iran-Backed Entities Including Hamas,” Algemeiner, 1-22-24.
BTW, the spy ship helping the Houthis has moved out of the Red Sea to avoid being attacked by the U.S. and the UK. “Iranian Spy Ship Helps Houthis Direct Attacks on Red Sea Vessels,” WSJ, 1-22-24.
