This is the challenge we face. China empowers Russia, Iran, North Korea. It is hard for Iran to act as a normal country when it does not have incentive. “NATO needs to look toward Pacific because of current realities, Jens Stoltenberg says,” Politico, 7-7-24.
“Reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian wins Iran’s presidential vote,” CNN, 7-6-24. Remember, reformist really doesn’t mean reformer, someone to stand up to the Regime. If anything, it means a slight tendency to be willing to talk to the U.S. but only to gain traction for the Islamic State of Iran. It does not mean any true significant agreement with the U.S., or Saudi Arabia, and certainly absolutely no dealings with Israel. In this way they are different than the hardline conservatives. The long CNN article implies Pezeshkian can make change with the West—only the Supreme Leader can, and he won’t. Another thing the article says, “Out of 30.5 million votes counted in Friday’s runoff, Pezeshkian won 53.6%, edging out ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, who had 44.3% of the votes, according to state-run Press TV. Voter turnout was 49.8%, Press TV reported.” That is the key, that Press TV reported, a government source. Remember, only 40% voted (supposedly) for the general election—how would there be more voting in the run-off? Very unlikely. Will we ever know the true number of voters?
Regardless, the NYT today in its story implies that having a reformist explains the hope some persons have and came out to vote in greater numbers, just to have some inkling of improvements in life in the country. As we saw with Rouhani’s presidency, this is unlikely. The president holds few real powers. See “Reformist Candidate Wins Iran’s Presidential Election,” NYT, 7-6-24.
See also “Centrist Masoud Pezeshkian will be Iran’s next president,” Al Jazeera, 7-6-24.
“Iranian voters pick moderate as president to replace hardline Raisi,” Reuters, 7-6-24. He is urging people to stick with him because of the difficulty of the promises he has made. Success will only be seen if he actually curbs the Morality Police and their abuse of women who don’t partly or fully cover their hair, and success will only be seen if he fulfills the promise of negotiating over the nuclear program and ending the corresponding sanctions. He will fail because the Leader insists on Islamic values (head coverings) and having nuclear deterrence and offensive capabilities.
“Polls close in Iran presidential run-off,” Al Jazeera, 7-5-24.
“Iranian IRGC Warship Crosses Equator For First Time,” RFE/RL, 7-4-24.
“Quote of the Day—”Maybe they didn’t participate in the elections because they had problems, were busy with work, were not in the mood, or simply didn’t have the time.” Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. See “Iran’s Supreme Leader downplays low election turnout,” Iran International, 7-3-24.
“Afghan Asylum Seekers Face Hostility in Iran,” FP, 7-3-24.
These police chiefs now have to watch their backs from Quds. “Iran imposes sanctions on 11 American individuals,” Mehr, 7-3-24.
“EU diplomat imprisoned in Iran kept his sexuality a secret from the regime,” Politico, 7-3-24. “Homosexuality is punishable by death in Iran, and thousands have been executed for it there since the 1979 Islamic revolution.”
“Turkey resumed oil imports from Iran in March after 4 years: data shows,” Hellenic News, 7-2-24.
“As Iran faces a rare runoff presidential election, disenchanted voters are staying away,” AP, 7-2-24.
“Khatami says discontent in Iran extends beyond the 60% who didn’t vote,” Iran International, 7-2-24.
“Iran is Exporting Crude Oil to 17 Countries, Minster Tells Mehr,” Mehr, 7-2-24.
“Iran’s presidential candidates discuss economic sanctions and nuclear deal ahead of Friday runoff,” AP, 7-2-24.
“Iran election: How Saeed Jalili’s refusal to quit may hand victory to the reformists,” MEE, 7-2-24. It is interesting to see in this article clear support for this blog’s position that the Leader calls the shots, and asks various candidates to drop out so the Leader’s favorite can win.
“As Iran faces a rare runoff presidential election, disenchanted voters are staying away,” AP, 7-2-24.
Here is another article showing the discontentment of citizens. “The Take: Why is Iran seeing its lowest voter turnout ever?,” Al Jazeera, 7-2-24.
“U.S. Nuclear Fears as Iran Targets African Uranium,” Newsweek, 7-2-24. Let’s have the UN Secretary General call out Niger.
“Iran becomes 4th largest oil exporter in OPEC: Report,” Mehr, 7-2-24.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/217141/Iran-becomes-4th-largest-oil-exporter-in-OPEC-Report
“Top adviser to Khamenei says Iran will back Hezbollah with all means if war breaks out,” Times of Israel, 7-2-24. “A top adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader says the Islamic Republic and its proxies would support Hezbollah with “all means” if Israel launches a war in Lebanon, the Financial Times reports. While stressing that Iran is not interested in a war, Kamal Kharrazi, Ali Khamenei’s foreign affairs adviser, warns that “there would be a chance of expansion of the war to the whole region, in which all countries including Iran would become engaged. In that situation, we would have no choice but to support Hezbollah by all means.””
“Disenchanted Iranian voters abstain in rare runoff presidential election,” Ynet, 7-2-24.
“Iran uses proxy militias in Iraq to pressure the US,” FDD, 7-1-24.
“ADL sues Iran, North Korea and Syria over Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack,” The Hill, 7-1-24. See also “October 7 victims sue Iran, Syria, North Korea for billions in US court,” Times of Israel, 7-1-24.
“What the Russia-Iran ‘comprehensive agreement’ means for Western security interests,” FDD, 7-1-24.
“Will Iran’s foreign policy change under a new president?,” Al Jazeera, 7-1-24.
Lack of truly robust sanctions enforcement by U.S., and cooperation by some Asian states, and more than 300 ships identified involved. “Iran’s Oil Exports Hit a 5-Year High in 2024,” Iran International, 7-1-24.
“Arab League Removes Hezbollah From Terror List; How Iran Benefits,” Iran International, 7-1-24.
But what about the Guardian Council? They said the six candidates have plenty of experience. “Iranian presidential candidates accuse each other of having no plan or experience ahead of runoff,” AP, 7-1-24.