Month: September 2024

Quote of the Day.  “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday told Iranians that regime change was looming. “When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think — everything will be different,” Netanyahu said in a video statement addressed to Iranians, in which he lambasted the “fanatic theocrats” who rule the country. “Our two ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace. Our two countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace,” he added. … “There are tens of millions of decent and good people with thousands of years of history behind them, and a brilliant future ahead of them. Don’t let a small group of fanatic theocrats crush your hopes and dreams. You deserve better. Your children deserve better. The entire world deserves better,” Netanyahu said. “The people of Iran should know, Israel stands with you. May we together know a future of prosperity and peace,” he said.”  See “Netanyahu: Iran regime change will come a ‘lot sooner than people think’,” Politico, 9-30-24.  So, will act as a normal country in response?  Or as a revolutionary country?

John Sawers, former MI6 chief and UK ambassador to the UN, has his finger on one thing here, that Israel is finally standing up to terror in a way that we all should.  True, the PM and the IDF and Mossad sense that they have the technical ability to act now, especially due to their missile shield providing much cover.  But Sawers misses in his IR balance of power analysis, and what we should realize regarding Iran’s decisions, is that this is not just a sterile laboratory of a world in which balances and rebalances occur.  The point here is that Iran, Syria, and others have used terror as a tool of statecraft, and long-term that is immoral and cannot win.  Eventually someone says enough is enough and they fight back.  Other states, unwilling to fight with personnel, or perhaps only contribute financial or other support, are here quietly approving of what Israel is doing to fight back against the Regime because they know that since 1979 Iran has needed someone(s) to hold back its revolutionary push by the two Ayatollahs.  See “Middle East’s power scales tip as Israel senses Iran’s weakness,” John Sawers, Financial Times, 9-30-24.  Michael Oren is making this same point, that the U.S. has the opportunity to remake the world, to push back on Iran.  (will any reformers in Iran see this chance to make a better future for their country?)  See “Michael Oren: This is an amazing opportunity to change the Middle East,” Fox, 9-30-24.

“Iran’s president seeks ‘regional’ response to Israel,” Politico, 9-29-24.  Kudos to the NYT for getting this right—Hamas attacked first.  Hezbollah attacked first.  Israel had to act in self defense to both.  See this quote paragraph in the story:  “Hezbollah, for decades a thorn in Israel’s side, began launching rockets at Israel after the lethal incursion last Oct. 7 by Hamas from Gaza into Israel. That Oct. 7 incursion led also to an Israeli invasion of Gaza that has so far resulted in the death of tens of thousands of residents of Gaza, as well as widespread destruction.”

He’s indecisive.  He doesn’t want to be blamed for mistakes.  He has a long history of “triangulation” in which he figures out who to blame and who to side with–this is key to staying in power.  And he’s afraid he will die (and there is no absolute knowledge that one goes to Paradise in Islamic thinking).  “Iran’s leadership said deeply shaken, divided over response to Nasrallah’s killing,” Times of Israel, 9-29-24.  Read the below, widely agreed to across the Middle East and in the West, and then ask yourself if Iran controls Hezbollah.  “Two IRGC officials, including a strategist who has been at meetings discussing the response to Nasrallah’s killing, said Iran’s first concern was to help Hezbollah recover from the series of devastating blows Israel has dealt to its leadership and infrastructure. That means appointing a new leader, putting in place a new command structure, and installing a new communications network. After that Hezbollah would be able to plan its retaliation against Israel. Iran will send a senior member of its elite Quds Forces to Beirut via Syria to advise Hezbollah, the two Guards members said.”

Iran has to decide whether it will be a normal nation-state or a revolutionary entity.  “Iran’s leadership said deeply shaken, divided over response to Nasrallah’s killing,” Times of Israel, 9-29-24.

Notice that it was a spy not with Lebanese citizenship.  “’Iran spy tipped off Israel about Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s location before airstrike,” The Week, 9-29-24.

“Iranian mole helped Israel kill Hezbollah leader – Le Parisien,” Iran International, 9-29-24.  But the 80 tons of bombs are not mentioned.

Notice that it was a spy not with Lebanese citizenship.  “’Iran spy tipped off Israel about Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s location before airstrike,” The Week, 9-29-24.

“Iranian mole helped Israel kill Hezbollah leader – Le Parisien,” Iran International, 9-29-24.  But the 80 tons of timed bombs are not mentioned.

“Iran Is Losing. That May Matter More Than Israel’s Mistakes,” NYT, 9-29-24.  While French writes that military success (whether Iran’s or Israel’s) guarantees being the captain of a country’s fate, his piece seems to indicate that our future is not in our control, nor are countries’ futures the result of ideology, economic decisions, good governance, etc.  Iran’s losing is not surprising based on why it was created and how it has been run.

I wonder how the death was confirmed.  Regardless, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, the Shia Islamist militant group and political party in Lebanon, and which is legally declared a terror organization by most Western nations, is eliminated by Israel.  Hezbollah’s reach is so much greater than Hamas, with terror attacks and presence in scores of countries and on every continent (except Antarctica!).  We will see how Nasrallah’s death hampers Iran, and will watch to see if this persuades the Supreme Leader of Iran to change his behavior.  See “Hezbollah confirms its leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike,” AP, 9-28-84.  Also, “Iran announced Saturday that a prominent general in its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard sanctioned by the U.S. died in the same airstrike. Abbas Nilforushan, 58, who the U.S. identified as the deputy commander for operations in the Guard, was killed Friday, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported.”  At a minimum, Hezbollah leaders are no longer using pagers and cell phones, and now they won’t be meeting together.  BTW, the killing of Nasrallah will interrupt international drug flows.  His death by Israel is the biggest blow to Iran and the IRGC and the Quds Force and international terrorism since the killing of Gen Qasem Soleimani in 2020 by Pres. Trump.

A weak statement.  “Iran’s Khamenei: ‘Zionist criminals too weak to succeed again the Resistance’,” I24, 9-28-24.  “The Supreme leader’s first statement since Nasrallah’s assassination by Israel delivers little besides familiar diatribes. “The killing of defenseless civilians in Lebanon has once again revealed the savage nature of the rabid Zionists to everyone. On the other hand, it has proven how shortsighted and insane the policies of the leaders of the occupying regime are.” … “The Zionist criminals need to know that they are far too weak to be able to inflict any significant damage on the solid structure of Lebanon’s Hezbollah. All the Resistance forces in the region stand with and support Hezbollah. The Resistance forces will determine the fate of this region with the honorable Hezbollah leading the way.”  So, Khamenei’s “important statement” says nothing about Nasrallah.  I suspect he doesn’t know what to say.  This does raise the chances, in his mind most likely, that striking back is the only option.

I allow other voices here also, including one’s that allow violence to not be countered, or countered fully.  “Neither Iran nor Israel will win in this fight,” Chatham House, 9-28-24.

Will Iran decide to take action directly?  Now Israel is targeting Nasrallah.  “Israel conducts massive strike targeting Hezbollah HQ in Beirut,” Axios, 9-27-24.  “Israel conducted an air strike on Friday targeting Hezbollah’s central headquarters in Beirut in an apparent attempt to kill the group’s leadership. Why it matters: This was the biggest Israeli strike in Beirut since the 2006 war in Lebanon, and an Israeli source said the primary target was Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The strike also reportedly hit residential buildings, though there has been no word yet on civilian casualties. Driving the news: Israeli officials say senior Hezbollah officials were at the headquarters at the time of the attack. There has been no official response as yet from Hezbollah on the attack or on Nasrallah’s status. Hezbollah-affiliated al-Manar Television reported that four buildings in southern Beirut were hit in the attack. Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Adm. Daniel Hagari described the attack as a “precise strike on the central HQ of Hezbollah which was intentionally built under residential buildings in Beirut in order to use them as human shields.””

Nasrallah isn’t answering his phone.  Oh wait, he hasn’t been using a cell for some time anyway.  “Iran’s Supreme Leader Holds Emergency Meeting After Israel Attacks Lebanon,” NYT, 9-27-24.  “But the initial assessment of Israeli intelligence agencies was that Mr. Nasrallah had been killed, officials said. … It was the first time that Mr. Khamenei had convened the Supreme National Council, the group that responds to national security threats, domestic and international and shapes foreign and national policy, for an emergency meeting since July 31, when Israel assassinated a top Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. … As Iran assesses how to respond to Israel, it faces a familiar problem: how to establish deterrence without encouraging all-out war. Analysts said that targeting Mr. Nasrallah escalated the standoff between Israel and Iran and its proxy militias to a new, more dangerous level. Until now, Iran has refrained from letting Israel drag it into an open war, analysts said. That posture is likely to continue. “Iran’s position seems to be that if Israel wants war, it’ll get it at the time of Iran’s choosing,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. Mr. Vaez said that Israel had decapitated Iran’s regional allies in the past, and instead of eliminating the threat, it has fed radicalization, enabling Iranian recruitment to continue.”  Well Dr. Vaez, Israel’s actions in the present are not restrained.

Street celebrations in Syria and Lebanon and Iran.  Here are some.  “Israeli media cites ‘growing confidence’ among officials that Nasrallah was killed in Beirut strike | LIVE BLOG,” I24, 9-27-24.

“For Iran, shielding nuclear programme overrides commitment to Hezbollah,” Arab Weekly, 9-27-24.

“Israel’s attempt to kill Nasrallah throws down the gauntlet to Iran,” Telegraph, 9-27-24.

“Hezbollah is pounded by Israel, but key ally Iran is reluctant to intervene,” WPost, 9-27-24.  Where is the government of Lebanon in all of this?  You’d think that with Nasrallah eliminated from exercising control of the bureaucracy of government.

Notably, the article says that after the U.S. election that normalization with Saudi Arabia will progress.  “Mossad has stopped over 50 Iranian-backed terror attacks on Jews since Oct. 7 – sources,” JPost, 9-27-24.

“Trump makes a surprising overture to Iran at NYC press conference,” Politico, 9-26-24.  Iran’s FM, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, had said Monday at the UN that Iran was open to discussing nuclear negotiations.  Trump says no nuclear weapons.

“Iranians indicted in connection with Trump campaign hack,” Politico, 9-26-24.

“Biden admin offers $20 million reward for info on Iranian charged with plot to kill ex-Trump official John Bolton,” NBC, 9-26-24.  Hey!  Zarif makes an appearance!  “When asked about alleged threats of assassination against American officials, Iranian Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif told NBC News’ Andrea Mitchell in an interview this week, “We do not assassinate people, but the fact of the matter is — they assassinated a revered Iranian general.””  Soleimani—revered?  Maybe Zarif is speaking of someone else.  But back to the point—the Islamic Republic of Iran’s government has assassinated many persons.  Mitchell should have started naming them.  Let’s start in 1979.

“Iranian President Pezeshkian Checks the Boxes in New York,” Stimson, 9-26-24.  Pres. Pezeshkian has brought back former FM (now VP) Javad Zarif (who has a knack of saying one thing in English in Western arenas and another thing in Farsi back home) and Zarif’s former deputies, Abbas Araghchi, now FM, and Majid Takht-Ravanchi, a former Iran ambassador to the UN and negotiator of the JCPOA.

“Iran, Hezbollah enabled Houthis’ rise, says UN report,” Reuters, 9-26-24.  “The rebel group is transformed into an army with weapons training and assistance provided by other members of Iran’s axis despite a de facto UN embargo on arms since 2015.”

We would expect a retraction from Reuters (see the story below from AP).  “Trump implicates Iran, without evidence, in assassination attempts against him,” James Oliphant, Reuters, 9-25-24.  See also “Trump campaign briefed on Iranian threats but officials decline to say if there is evidence of new plot,” PBS, 9-25-24.  Still haven’t seen anything from Reuters correcting their story.

Iran’s past actions have painted itself into a corner.  Finally.  “Iran faces dilemma of restraint or revenge for attacks on ally Hezbollah,” BBC, 9-25-24.

“Hezbollah asked Iran to attack Israel, Israeli and Western officials say,” Axios, 9-24-24.

“Sweden accuses Iran of hacking messaging service after Koran burnings,” Reuters, 9-24-24.

If you’re tracking this, Iran is sending drones and ballistic missiles to Russia to use against Ukraine.  Russia is sending select/advanced missiles to Yemen, a puppet of Iran, to use against Israel.  “Exclusive: Iran brokering talks to send advanced Russian missiles to Yemen’s Houthis, sources say,” Reuters, 9-24-24.

“Exclusive: Iran’s Guards ban communications devices after strike on Hezbollah,” Reuters, 9-23-24.  This immediately begs two questions.  How will the Regime talk to its soldiers and its proxies, in and outside of Iran and across the Middle East?  Second, if a country (Israel) shuts down the communications of another country, isn’t that an act of war?  Why isn’t Iran openly declaring war against Israel today?  Food for thought.  Maybe … they already are at war.  Wait, another question.  Did Israel’s use of the pagers violate international law?  I wonder if Iran will make that argument.  I wonder what Israel would say.  I know what NPR says.  “Examining whether sophisticated explosions in Lebanon violated international law,” NPR, 9-20-24.

“Since 1979, when the clerical regime came to power, Iran’s agents have killed more than 440 Iranians outside its borders, by the count of the Abdorraham Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran (named for a democratic activist stabbed to death in the lobby of his Paris apartment building by agents of the Islamic Republic in 1991). The count does not include nonfatal attacks.”  See “Iran, Trump, and the Third Assassination Plot,” Time, 9-23-24.

“Hamas’ Sinwar is ‘big obstacle’ in cease-fire talks, John Kirby says,” Politico, 9-22-24.  No, Sinwar is not the sticking point.  The Supreme Leader is.

Sen. Fetterman will need extra protection.  Not just for his long Israel support and recent support for the exploding pagers against Iran-controlled Hezbollah.  But also for the need to remove a terror group so we can have peace for the Palestinians.  Here’s a quote from a news story—“Fetterman, a strong pro-Israel Democrat, has been one of the most vocal Israel defenders since the attacks last Oct. 7. He has slammed ceasefire protesters and has split with factions from his party over the issue, often going viral for doing so. The stance has caused criticism from other Democrats — and has led to a departure of staff from his Senate office. “I would be the last man standing to be absolutely there on the Israeli side on this with no conditions,” Fetterman once said in an interview with POLITICO. “Without destroying Hamas, there will be no enduring peace and a stable, two-state solution.””  See “Fetterman on pager attack in Lebanon: ‘If anything, I love it’,” Politico, 9-22-24.

President Herzog is correct in identifying Iran as a revolutionary entity, not a normal state.  “Herzog also categorically refused to comment on two attacks last week when Hezbollah communication devices exploded, which killed dozens and maimed thousands of operatives. He also stressed that the war was with Hezbollah, which has hijacked Lebanon. “Lebanon has been hijacked by a terror organization which is also a political party in Lebanon called Hezbollah,” he said. “It’s been armed to its teeth by the Iranian empire of evil. And all of these leaders who were eradicated on Friday by the Israeli attack, all of these leaders were meeting together in order to launch the same horrific, horrendous attack that we had on October 7th by Hamas. By burning Israelis, butchering them, raping their women, abducting and taking hostage old people and little babies. This is exactly the same plan that they’ve been planning for years under the plans of the empire of evil.””  See “Herzog stresses need for northern Israelis to return back home in safety,” I24, 9-22-24.

Quote of the Day about Iran’s negotiating prowess and strategy, and about Robert Malley.  “The U.S. showed that it was quite desperate to get a deal,” a European negotiator said. “The Iranians knew they could just string it out.”  The article says Malley is now teaching students at Princeton University, where Seyed Hossein Mousavian teaches, a shill for the Regime.  See “Biden’s Iran Envoy Wanted a Nuclear Deal. It May Have Cost Him His Career,” WSJ, 9-22-24.

“At least 50 killed in Iran coal mine blast: State media,” Al Jazeera, 9-22-24.

“Iran arrests 12 people for collaborating with Israel, Revolutionary Guards say,” Reuters, 9-22-24.

“A senior Iranian official reportedly says Tehran was involved in purchasing the pagers held by Hezbollah operatives that exploded across Lebanon last week in an attack widely blamed on Israel, and hinted that such a device could have been responsible for the helicopter crash that killed Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi in May. In a post on X, Europe-based Iranian journalist Mohamad Ahwaze reports that Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said that Hezbollah had been hacked and confirmed that Raisi had one of the compromised pagers. At least 30 people were killed and thousands injured when pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives exploded across Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday, in a coordinated attack widely blamed on Israel after months of cross-border fire.”  See “Report: Senior Iranian official says Hezbollah pager could have caused helicopter crash that killed Raisi,” Times of Israel, 9-22-24.  It is dangerous for Iran to accuse Israel of assassinating its president.  And any responsible accident scene investigation could show if there is an exploded device in the debris.

This story is surprising, because that is not what Iran usually does when it transfers weapons.  It is also a surprising story, and I’d want confirmation, because the stories of the short-range ballistics to Russia (they were being surveilled) didn’t say the launchers were not included.  “Iran withheld launchers from ballistic missiles supplied to Russia — report,” Reuters, 9-21-24

How can anyone have this as the favorite week of the year (and their fav holiday as Quds Day, the only holiday in the world where one country focuses on the destruction of another).  “Iran’s Armed Forces stage military parade to commemorate Sacred Defense Week,” IRNA, 9-21-24.

“790,000 Iranian Students Absent as New Academic Year Begins,” Iran News Update, 9-21-24.

What is the Farsi word for pager?  “President Pezeshkian: No foreign power dares to invade Iran thanks to deterrent power,” IFP, 9-21-24.

Notice the name of the new missile, the Jihad—not the inner, personal struggle of a Shia muslim, but the other definition of the word.  “Iran unveils new drone, missile amid rising tensions,” AFP, France 24, 9-21-24.

Macy’s shopping spree.  “Iran’s president heads to the UN in NY with a delegation of 40, including family,” Iran International, 9-21-24.