Month: October 2024

“Iranian leader Khamenei said to order reprisal attack on Israeli military sites,” Times of Israel, AFP, 10-31-24.  “NYT says decision made after briefing on extent of damage caused by Israel retaliatory strike; separate report claims Iraqi militias will fire drones, missiles for Tehran.”

Remember, Iran attacked with 180 ballistics.  Then Israel retaliated against S-300s and missile solid fuel machines.  Now, if Iran attacks again it can’t be in retaliation as they may claim; it will be a new round of violence.  See “Iran preparing major retaliatory strike from Iraq within days, Israeli intel suggests,” Axios, 10-31-24.

We will see how Tehran reacts.  “Israel took out primary Iranian air defenses, left it ‘essentially naked’ – report,” Times of Israel, 10-30-24.  “Sources tell Fox News airstrikes destroyed remaining three S-300 batteries; Israeli official says ‘majority of Iran’s air defense was taken out’.  …  The four Russian-made S-300 air defense systems that Israel has reportedly destroyed in strikes on Iran this year — one in April, and three this past weekend — had been the only such systems possessed by the Islamic Republic as of the beginning of this year.  …  The tally matched that of a Wall Street Journal report on Sunday that said all of Iran’s S-300s are now out of action.  …  US President Joe Biden’s senior Mideast adviser Amos Hochstein was also cited as saying on an internal call that “Iran is essentially naked” and vulnerable to potential future aerial attacks. Israel has previously been reported to have also taken out other air defenses surrounding key energy facilities, as well as hitting drone-production sites and key long-range missile-production facilities containing solid fuel mixers that will take at least a year to replace, hampering Iran’s ability to repeat its two missile attacks on Israel this year. However, Iran has attempted to downplay the damage caused by the airstrikes, and on Wednesday local media cited Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh as saying missile production has not been disrupted. “The enemy has sought to hurt both our defensive and offensive systems but was not very successful because we had made arrangements and were in the know,” he said. … Two American researchers told Reuters last week that Israeli airstrikes hit buildings that Iran used for mixing solid fuel for ballistic missiles and that this “may have significantly hampered Iran’s ability to mass produce missiles.”  The attacks on the air defenses caused “deep alarm” in Iran, The New York Times has reported, citing three unnamed Iranian officials — one from the country’s oil ministry — since it rendered defenseless Khuzestan Province’s Abadan oil refinery, Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex and an adjacent major port, as well as the Tange Bijar gas field in the Ilam Province. The S-300 has a range of up to 200 kilometers (125 miles) and the capability to track down and strike multiple targets simultaneously. It is considered one of the most potent air defense weapons in the world and can be used to shoot down missiles as well as aircraft. Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iranian military facilities came weeks after an October 1 attack in which Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, sending most of the population rushing to bomb shelters and safe rooms. It caused relatively minor damage to military bases and some residential areas, and killed a Palestinian man in the West Bank.  The Iranian attack came days after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime Hezbollah leader. Iran said the missiles were also a response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in an explosion in Tehran in July widely attributed to Israel.”

“Corruption on Earth” is the catch-all.  “Iran executes German-Iranian dissident,” BBC, 10-30-24.

“How Israel Could Be Changing Iran’s Nuclear Calculus,” The Atlantic, 10-30-24.

“Satellite photos show Israeli strike likely hit important Iran Revolutionary Guard missile base,” AP, 10-29-24.  Israel’s brilliant retaliation strikes are showing the significant damage to Iranian air defenses as well as missile launch facilities.  Iran appears to be naked to air attack, and unable to add to its solid fuel missile stock.

“Iran plans to increase military budget by 200 percent,” Al Jazeera, 10-29-24.  Iran’s military spending in 2023 was $10 billion.

“What we know about Israel’s attack on Iran,” BBC, 10-29-24.  Targets comprised Iran’s air defences, missile and drone production, and launch facilities. Two researchers, analysing satellite imagery, told Reuters news agency that Israel had struck buildings in Parchin, a military complex near Tehran, and may have “significantly hampered Iran’s ability to mass produce missiles”.  So, who’s telling the truth?  (there is a long track of history on this)—“Iran has largely played down the impact of the strikes – which hit sites in Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam provinces – saying most missiles were intercepted and those that were not caused “limited damage”.”

Iran has selected another proxy and short-term Hezbollah leader.  “Hezbollah names Naim Qassem as new leader, Israel says he won’t last long,” Reuters, 10-29-24.

“Satellite Images Suggest Israel Struck a Major Iranian Missile Plant,” NYT, 10-29-24.  Analysts said the Shahroud Space Center was likely used to produce intermediate-range ballistic missiles that could be used to target Israel.  “Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who has been tracking that site since 2017, said it was used to build solid-propellant rocket motors that can be used in space technology, but which are also commonly used for ballistic missiles. … Solid propellant is useful for weapons systems because it can be stored longer, and because rockets that use it can be launched more quickly than ones that rely on liquid propellant.”

“Iran officially denies upcoming delivery of Su-35 fighters,” BulgarianMilitary.com, 10-29-24.

“Iran plans to raise military budget by around 200%, government spokesperson says,” Reuters, 10-29-24.

“North Korea Is a Surprisingly Valuable Wartime Ally to Russia and Iran,” Newsweek, 10-29-24.

“Elon Musk’s X blocks Khamenei’s account after Iran supreme leader’s message in Hebrew,” NYPost, 10-29-24.

“Germany recalls ambassador from Iran, protesting execution of Iranian-German prisoner,” AP, 10-29-24.

“The Covert War for American Minds:  How Russia, China, and Iran Seek to Spread Disinformation and Chaos in the United States,” Foreign Affairs, 10-29-24.

“[D]egraded Iranian air defenses and weapons facilities.”  See “Israel met ‘all its objectives’ in strike; Iran vows response,” WPost, 10-27-24

Actually, Iran shouldn’t respond.  Iran attacked first, Israel retaliated.  “Analysis: Iran faces tough choices in deciding how to respond to Israeli strikes,” AP, 10-27-24.

“Israel’s strikes on Iran reportedly hit air defence systems protecting energy sites,” Guardian, 10-27-24.

“Right?”  Like, self-defense?  “Iran’s Leaders Stress Their Right to Respond to Israel’s Strikes,” NYT, 10-27-24.

“Live updates: Israel says it has completed strikes on Iran; Tehran says damage is limited,” NBC, 10-26-24.  NBC should contrast the 200 Iranian ballistic missiles versus the targeted airstrikes by Israel–which country is acting more in line with international law and within the requests by the international community–to first ask will this become a larger regional war (apparently not thanks to Israel’s actions) but more importantly whether the instigator (Iran) will curb its revolutionary ways.  Iran still has time to act more like a normal state, but the Supreme Leader and the 40-plus year system created will have difficulty backing down.

“Israel attacks Iran military targets, Tehran says damage ‘limited’,” Reuters, 10-26-24.

What normal countries do, well extraordinary countries do.  Iran can take note.  “Israel structured Iran strike so that Tehran could deny damage done – report,” JPost, 10-26-24.

“Israel strike crippled Iran’s missile production, sources say,” Axios, 10-26-24.  “Israel’s retaliatory strike against Iran took out a critical component in Iran’s ballistic missile program, according to three Israeli sources.  Why it matters: The destruction of the equipment severely damages Iran’s ability to renew its missile stockpile and could deter Iran from further massive missile strikes against Israel, the sources said.  The sources said Israel hit 12 “planetary mixers” used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles, which make up the bulk of Iran’s missile arsenal. A senior U.S. official confirmed that the strike cripples Iran’s missile production capability.  Between the lines: The Israeli sources said the mixers are highly sophisticated equipment that Iran cannot produce on its own and must purchase from China. Remanufacturing the mixers could take at least a year, the sources said. While Iran still has a big stockpile of ballistic missiles, Israeli sources say the fact that Iran can’t produce new ballistic missiles would also limit its ability to replenish the ballistic missile stockpiles of its proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Driving the news: Israeli sources said the attack also hit four S-300 air defense batteries that were in strategic locations and protected Tehran and nuclear and energy facilities in Iran. The Iranian military said in a statement that the Israeli strike was conducted from Iraqi air space and added that several radar systems suffered limited damages that are in the process of being repaired. … Israeli sources confirmed the strikes were conducted from Syrian and Iraqi air space, some of them close to the Iraqi border with Iran. The sources said the Israeli air force attacked a factory for the production of drones and conducted a “symbolic” strike on a facility in the city of Parchin that was used in the past for the research and development of nuclear weapons.”

“Israel launches attacks on Iranian military targets,” Politico, 10-25-24.  “Israel has launched a series of airstrikes on military targets inside Iran in the latest exchange in the escalating conflict between the two countries. The airstrikes, announced by the Israel Defense Forces as they were still taking place early Saturday local time, came in response to an Oct. 1 Iranian attack on Israel with around 200 ballistic missiles that struck military bases and civilian infrastructure this month. The IDF said in a statement that its strikes are “in response to months of continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against the State of Israel.”

“Iran and Saudi Arabia hold joint naval exercise in Sea of Oman,” Times of Israel, 10-24-24.  It appears from open sources that these short drills along with at least one Russian and Oman vessel were minor in reality, but the type of thing that allows communication, etc.

“Fire breaks out at Iranian power plant, Iranian media silent – report,” JPost, 10-24-24.  Either mismanagement, or part of Israel’s retaliation.

An attempted assassination of the Israeli PM by “agents of Iran.”  “Gallant at IAF base: After we strike in Iran, world will understand all our training,” Times of Israel, 10-23-24.  Do I have to write what this means for the Supreme Leader?

“Why Is Israel Poised to Attack Iran?,” NYT, 10-23-24.

“Hezbollah confirms death of Nasrallah’s heir apparent,” BBC, 10-23-24.  You read the headline, and then the story and really learn the connections with Iran.  The IDF said “it killed Hashem Safieddine in a strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut. …  Safieddine was head of the group’s executive council and was a cousin of its late secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli air strike on the Lebanese capital on 27 September. … Hezbollah is a military, political and social organisation that wields considerable power in Lebanon. It is designated as a terrorist organisation by Israel as well as the US, the UK and other countries. Safieddine himself was designated a “global terrorist” by the US and Saudi Arabia in 2017. He undertook religious studies in Iran and his son was married to a daughter of Gen Qasem Soleimani, the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander who was killed in a 2020 US air strike in Iraq.”

“Iran, TZ seek to expand partnership in, petro-chemicals, tourism,” IPP Media, 10-22-24.  Tanzania both facilitates Iran’s misadventures and mismanagement and the spread of the Shia Crescent and terrorism, either wittingly (through corruption) or unwittingly.  There is still time to reverse, but Tanzania needs to come to the realization that other countries have.  See also from yesterday’s news:  “Tanzania and Iran Sign Seven MOUs for Cooperation in Various Sectors,” Chanzo, 10-21-24.

“Federal prosecutors charge Iranian Revolutionary Guards official in assassination plot on US soil,” CNN, 10-22-24.  IRGC Brigadier General Ruhollah Bazghandi is at large; the three East European crime members are arrested.  The plot was to kill journalist Masih Alinejad in NYC.  “Alinejad posted on X Tuesday that “the revelation that the assassination plot against me in July 2022 was orchestrated by Ali Khamenei’s IRGC is a stark reminder of the brutal lengths to which the Islamic regime will go to silence dissidents, even those far beyond Iran’s borders.” She vowed to “continue advocating … for the rights of the Iranian people to secure democracy and free themselves from dictatorship, no matter the risks.”  “Despite moving 21 times between safe houses, I have a message for @khamenei_ir,” Alinejad wrote, tagging Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the post.  “Know this – the day of reckoning is coming, and no matter how far you run, justice will find you.  Your regime will face accountability for the suffering it has inflicted.  You may have driven me from my home, but now it is your turn to face the consequences of your crimes.  Go to hell,” Alinejad wrote.”

“Israel arrests second group of alleged Iran spies,” BBC, 10-22-24.

“Iran insists its nuclear program is strictly peaceful but has accelerated its enrichment of uranium to up to 60 percent fissile purity, close to 90% of weapons-grade, a level of purity experts say has no practical use except to make a bomb.”  Then, Iran insists that it can protect that nuclear weapons program under international law.  That takes hutzpah.  “Iran complains to UN watchdog, alleging Israeli threats to hit its nuclear sites,” Times of Israel, 10-21-24.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-complains-to-un-watchdog-alleging-israeli-threats-to-hit-its-nuclear-sites/

This is also an interesting article because on my Oct. 17 entry I wrote that Sinwar should have jumped at the chance when he had it.  I wonder if Iran told him to stick it out, or if this was an Iran-free decision by Sinwar?  Well, he signed his own death warrant.  “Report: Sinwar was offered a chance to leave Gaza for Egypt during war, but refused,” Times of Israel, 10-21-24.

“Iran insists its nuclear program is strictly peaceful but has accelerated its enrichment of uranium to up to 60 percent fissile purity, close to 90% of weapons-grade, a level of purity experts say has no practical use except to make a bomb.”  Then, Iran insists that it can protect that nuclear weapons program under international law.  That takes hutzpah.  “Iran complains to UN watchdog, alleging Israeli threats to hit its nuclear sites,” Times of Israel, 10-21-24.