Month: November 2024

Usually a declaration from the Supreme Leader is enough.  “Iran’s president calls on Pope Francis to use influence to stop war in Middle East,” Al Arabiya, 11-20-24.

But haven’t they said from the first they would never build an atomic bomb, and that there was a fatwa prohibiting such?!  “Iran has offered to keep uranium below purity levels for a bomb, IAEA confirms,” Guardian, 11-20-24.

“What would Iran do: A race to the bomb or a deal with Trump?,” Iran International, 11-20-24.

“Ignoring threats, Western powers officially ask UN nuke watchdog to censure Iran,” Iran International, 11-20-24.

“Iran defies international pressure, increasing its stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium, UN says,” AP, 11-19-24.  “Iran has defied international demands to rein in its nuclear program and has increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, according to a confidential report by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog seen Tuesday by The Associated Press. The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency said that as of Oct. 26, Iran has 182.3 kilograms (401.9 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60%, an increase of 17.6 kilograms (38.8 pounds) since the last report in August. Uranium enriched at 60% purity is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. The IAEA also estimated in its quarterly report that as of Oct. 26, Iran’s overall stockpile of enriched uranium stands at 6,604.4 kilograms (14,560 pounds), an increase of 852.6 kilograms (1,879.6 pounds) since August. Under the IAEA’s definition, around 42 kilograms (92.5 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% purity is the amount at which creating one atomic weapon is theoretically possible — if the material is enriched further, to 90%.”

“Iran says woman detained after undressing released without charge,” BBC, 11-19-24.

“Generation Jihad Ep. 233 — Iran’s Expansionism and Alliances in the Region, Part XII,” Long War Journal, 11-19-24.

“Iran increases its near weapons-grade uranium,” VOA, 11-19-24.

It is only surprising there aren’t more.  But there are.  “A Dissident’s Final Act of Protest Stuns Iran,” NYT, 11-19-24.

More proof that Iran was responsible for Oct. 7.  “Unsealing secret Hamas papers, families of October 7 victims sue Iran in US court,” Times of Israel, 11-18-24.  “Documents include itemized list of payments made by Iran to Hamas leaders over several years, discussions of mutual defense agreement between Palestinian terror group, Tehran, proxies.  …  According to the New York Times, the $7 million monthly fee was sought to ready for the October 7 attack, in which some 1,200 people were killed and 251 were seized as hostages as thousands of Hamas-led terrorists rampaged through communities in southern Israel under the cover of massive rocket fire across the country.  …  Aside from Iran and the IRGC, the suit also names Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.”

And per the NYT, “But lawyers for the plaintiffs in the case also appear to have obtained original documents that refer to a secret planning meeting of a small group of Hamas’s political and military leaders in December 2022.  During the meeting, Yahya Sinwar, then the leader of the group in Gaza, requested an additional $7 million a month from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to fund the attack on Oct. 7, known as the “big project.””  See “Families of American Victims of Oct. 7 Attack Sue Iran,” NYT, 11-17-24.

“Iran Refutes Supreme Leader ‘Coma’ Reports Amid Social Media Buzz,” Newsweek, 11-18-24.

“Iran has ambitions in Western Sahara. Trump can contain them by bolstering ties with Morocco,” Atlantic Council, 11-18-24.  Hmmm, access to Europe and South America.  Drug transit and terror passage, etc.

Iran is trying to kill Canada’s justice minister.  “Ex-Canadian minister says he was alleged target of Iran assassination plot,” BBC, 11-18-24.

They could go to Iran, where they have been on short trips.  “Senior Hamas officials in Turkey after Qatar says leadership unwelcome – report,” JPost, 11-17-24.  See also “Senior Hamas leaders left Qatar for Turkey last week, Arab diplomat says,” Times of Israel, 11-17-24.  “On November 8, the US revealed that it had asked Qatar to oust Hamas officials from Doha, which has hosted an office for the terror group since 2012. Washington said it made the request after Hamas had rejected repeated hostage deal proposals and had executed six captives, including an American citizen.”

“Iran publishes picture of Supreme Leader Khamenei after unsourced reports he was in coma,” Times of Israel, 11-17-24.

Realism.  Worry.  Results in public meeting with Trump official.  “Iranian official met with Musk in a possible step to ease tensions with Trump,” AP, 11-16-24.  Note that the article says it was Iran who sought the meeting with Elon Musk.  Also, “Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani met with Musk … on Monday in New York, according to a U.S. official briefed on the meeting by a foreign colleague. The official said he had been informed that the discussion covered a variety of topics, most notably Iran’s nuclear program, its support for anti-Israel groups throughout the Middle East and prospects for improved relations with the United States.”

Ah ha.  The case in the ICJ was not about genocide, but paid for by Iran.  I wonder if this will be reflected in the Court’s written decision?  “Iran and Qatar behind South Africa’s World Court case against Israel, report claims,” Ynet, 11-16-24.

And really enforce the current sanctions, which the Biden Admin. has let go slack, especially oil sales to China.  “Trump admin. plans to bankrupt Iran with ‘maximum pressure’ policies – report,” JPost, 11-16-24.  “Iran ‘categorically denies’ UN envoy met Elon Musk,” CNN, 11-16-24.

So just after writing that Iran hasn’t rescinded its assassination order against Trump (it has a practice of never pulling these back), look what shows up in the news.  “U.S. received Iran’s written assurance it was not actively trying to assassinate Trump,” CBS, 11-15-24.  The U.S. received written assurance from Iran before the presidential election that its leadership was not actively trying to assassinate President-elect Donald Trump, CBS News confirmed, according to a source with direct knowledge of the correspondence. The message arrived after the White House in September affirmed that killing a former U.S. president or former U.S. official would be seen by the Biden administration as an act of war.”  Here are my thoughts—the document, subject to secrecy rules, will years from now be available through the Archives for reading by the public.  First, if we could all see the document, we would realize this is the first time the Supreme Leader has made such a declaration, so he is most likely quite worried about himself, and the regime.  Second, notice the wording from CBS—that Iran’s “leadership was not actively trying to assassinate President-elect Donald Trump”—the statement from Iran doesn’t rescind the fatwa.  It says “not actively.”  That means they are not really trying hard, or reserve the right to go after him.  So, what the USG has received is nothing.

“Even Iran is attempting to play nice with Donald Trump,” Politico, 11-15-24.  “Is Iran so scared of Donald Trump that it’s starting (or pretending) to play nice? That’s the question on the minds of U.S. national security officials and analysts as Tehran braces for another four years of Trump.”  But, remember, the assassination order still stands.

What will it take for Iran to change its stripes and decide to act as a normal country?  Part of the answer may be defanging it.  “Israel destroyed equipment Iran would need to develop nuclear weapon, officials say,” Axios, 11-15-24.  “The Israeli strike on Iran’s Parchin military complex in late October will make it much harder for Iran to develop a nuclear explosive device if it chooses to do so, two Israeli officials told Axios. Why it matters: The sophisticated equipment that was destroyed is needed to design and test plastic explosives that surround uranium in a nuclear device and are needed to detonate it. It dates back to before Iran ended its military nuclear program in 2003. … The Taleghan 2 facility in the Parchin military complex which was destroyed in the strike was used prior to 2003 for testing explosives needed to set off a nuclear device, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.”

Truth be told, the ISI is primary to the Lebanese government.  “Lebanon’s prime minister asks Iran to help secure a cease-fire in Israel-Hezbollah war,” PBS, 11-15-24.

“Tehran faces deal or downfall under Trump, Lévy says,” Iran International, 11-15-24.

“Iran Update,” Institute for the Study of War, 11-15-24.  “US and Israeli intelligence began detecting suspicious research activity, including computer modeling, metallurgy, and explosive research, at the Parchin Military Complex earlier in 2024.”

“Elon Musk met with Iran’s UN envoy, NYT reports,” CNN, 11-14-24.

This is reality for women in Iran.  “A woman was accosted in Tehran. The Iranian police arrested her.”  NBC, 11-14-24.

“Joe Biden Tells Trump Iran ‘Most Immediate’ Threat: Report,” Newsweek, 11-14-24.

“Iran-linked group aims malware at aerospace industry through fake job recruiters,” The Record, 11-14-24.

“US military strikes ‘Iranian-backed’ fighters in Syria for a second day,” Al Jazeera, 11-13-24.  The U.S. reacted to Iran’s strikes on its forces.

“The Axis of Resilience:  Israel Is Underestimating Iran and Its Allies,” Foreign Affairs, 11-13-24.

““100” J-10 Fighters: Iran Examines China’s Vigorous Dragon At Zhuhai Air Show Amid Rising Israel Tensions,” Eurasian Review, 11-13-24.

Pretty outrageous.  You can imagine the treatment of females in this type of “clinic.”  See “Iran to open hijab clinic, framing defiance as mental health issue,” Iran International, 11-13-24.  But the Regime won’t address this from the religious perspective.

“The Axis of Resilience:  Israel Is Underestimating Iran and Its Allies,” Foreign Affairs, 11-13-24.

“Iran obsesses over destroying Israel instead of building itself: Netanyahu,” Business Standard, 11-13-24.

A lot of news today on 11-12-24, from kidney donations to the defense budget.   We will start with the Israeli PM making news by saying the rest of us think.  “Netanyahu says Iran’s government fears its people more than Israel,” Reuters, 11-12-24.  See also “Netanyahu says Iran’s government fears its people more than Israel,” Reuters, 11-12-24.

“How Iran’s attacks on Israel backfired, escalating regional conflict – opinion,” JPost 11-12-24.

“NATO chief warns of threat from Russian ties with China, Iran, North Korea,” Reuters, 12-12-24.

It is so hard to win court cases and public opinion cases relying on 100 year old info.  “Iran cites 19th century British maps in row over ownership of islands,” Guardian, 11-12-24.

“Iran builds ‘defensive tunnel’ in Tehran to avoid future Israeli attacks,” JPost, 11-12-24.

“Where Asia Meets Europe, Allies Become Rivals in a Tangle of Interests,” NYT, 11-12-24.

“Iranian filmmaker puts kidney up for sale in sign of dire times,” Iran International, 11-12-24.

“Landmark report details half-century of Iran’s systematic persecution of Baha’is,” Iran International, 11-12-24.

“Iran approves premium gasoline import in boon to super rich,” Iran International, 11-12-24.

“Iran to Increase Defense Budget By up to 200 Percent,” Defense Post, 11-12-24.

“Iran prioritizes gas exports despite widespread power outages,” Iran International, 11-12-24.

“UN watchdog chief warns room to maneuver on Iran’s nuclear program is shrinking,” Times of Israel, 11-12-24.

“Iran planned attack against Israelis in Sri Lanka, assassination of Jewish-American businessman,” Ynet, 11-11-24.  “FBI indictment reveals Farhad Shakeri, who also was instructed by Iran to assassinate President-elect Donald Trump, was ordered by the IRGC to target Israelis in Sri Lanka and to murder two US Jewish businessmen in exchange for up to $1 million.”  A real international assassin.

“Iran’s judiciary chief warns of heightened security threats,” Iran International, 11-11-24.

“The ‘Clean’ Son of the Ayatollah Enters Iran’s Succession Battle,” Iran Wire, 11-11-24.

“Iran could give Hamas and Hezbollah chemical weapons, says analyst,” JC, 11-11-24.

“Russia’s Mir payment system to be connected to Iran’s Shetab,” Mehr, 11-11-24.  “By connecting the two countries’ local payment systems, Iranian banking cards can be used at automated teller machines (ATMs) in Russia, the CBI said. Therefore, it added, every person with an Iranian banking card can receive his funds in rubles from Russian ATMs. The CBI further said that the second phase of the link-up process will allow Russian nationals to use Iranian ATMs and the third phase will make Iranian Shetab cards acceptable at point-of-sale (POS) terminals installed in Russian stores.”  Somehow, I don’t think that U.S. banks will buy in.

“Iran’s Axis of Resistance explained,” Al Jazeera, 11-11-24.

“US forces strike Iran-backed targets in Syria after attacks on Americans,” The Hill, 11-11-24.