“Iran’s Very Bad Year,” NYT, 12-9-24.
The land bridge is gone. “Assad regime’s collapse is a devastating defeat for Iran,” NBC, 12-9-24.
“Iran Crisis Update, December 9,” ISW, 12-9-24.
“Iran Protests: Nationwide Demonstrations on December 9 Highlight Economic Struggles and Neglect,” NCRI, 12-9-22.
It is this type of sudden ending, with fleeing, disaster, possible death, that keeps some despots from giving up power. This is part of what has gone through the Supreme Leader’s mind every day since even before the Revolution, certainly since he lost control of his right arm. Now he has another right arm to worry about, his main ally and friend Assad is gone and Syria is suddenly seemingly gone. See “Syria latest: Syrians celebrate Bashar Assad’s fall as his whereabouts remain unknown,” AP, 12-8-24. Syria’s collapse certainly weakens Iran’s control more than probably anything since 1979.
It is not clear yet how Assad left his plane near Homs and arrived at the Khmeimim Air Base, SE of Latakia. There was roughly a half day of uncertainty among the public and news outlets worldwide where he was. Nor is it clear yet why he abandoned his suitor Iran and opted for Russia, but it is probably because of the long-standing deep relationship including that of his father in doing Russia’s bidding in the Middle East, pre-dating Iran’s sway over Syria. Russia had more to lose by his talking or his death. But Russia knew his exit plans. See “Russia says Assad has fled country as plane disappears from radar,” Telegraph, 12-8-24. And see “Assad arrives in Moscow, is granted asylum by Russia,” Fox, 12-8-24. Finally, Russia may be cutting some loses, at least for the present, by partially withdrawing from Syria, from the airbase and their Tartus port. Assad apparently was on a transport to Moscow. See “Syrian rebels reportedly capture Jableh, city near Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base,” Meduza, 12-8-24.
“Khamenei Loses Everything,” The Atlantic, 12-8-24.
Syria’s retreat, despite Iran demands, continues. It looks like Damascus and Tehran have a fight on their hands from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, or HTS. “Syrian rebels reach Damascus suburbs as government denies Assad’s departure rumors,” AP, KTXS, 12-7-24. The leader of HTS is Ahmad al-Shara, better known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, or Julani.
What will Iran do? This is a real crossroads. The biggest state partner in the Shia Crescent has apparently fallen. “Reuters reported on Sunday morning local time that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has left Damascus to an unknown location. … Videos on social media showed Syrian soldiers leaving their positions in Damascus, taking off their uniform and changing to civilian clothes. Damascus International Airport is also under rebel control.” See “Assad regime collapses as Syrian rebels enter Damascus,” Axios, 12-7-24.
“Iran’s nuclear leap ‘extremely serious, has no civilian justification’,” I-24, 12-7-24.
Retreat! “The evacuations, both by air and across land borders, were ordered from the Iranian embassy in Damascus and several Revolutionary Guard bases in Syria.” See “Iran begins to evacuate commanders as forces abandon Assad,” Yahoo, 12-7-24. Here’s a great quote, but anonymous. ““He [Assad] has proven that no matter how much support he receives, he cannot push back even a few terrorists from his territory. He’s just a moron who couldn’t build a proper government in 10 years, and his forces surrendered without firing a single bullet,” a member of the IRGC-affiliate Basij paramilitary force in Tehran told The Telegraph.” But he’s a moron Tehran continued to use.
“Iran evacuates personnel in Syria as rebels further advance – NYT,” JPost, 12-7-24. “Iran began evacuating its Quds Force personnel and military officials from Syria into neighboring countries.”
“Iran, Hezbollah aim to bolster Assad as rebels bear down on Homs,” Reuters, 12-6-24.
“Iran has ‘dramatically’ increased enrichment to near bomb grade -IAEA,” JPost, 12-6-24. “If Iran continues on its expected uranium enrichment rate, it will be able to produce 12 nuclear bombs.”
“Syrian rebels seize Iraqi crossing, choking Iranian lifeline to Hezbollah,” Iran International, 12-6-24. “US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an alliance of Syrian Kurdish fighters, seized the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor and a nearby Iraqi-Syrian border crossing used by Iran to arm Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Reuters reported on Friday. The Al-Bukamal crossing fell under SDF control on Friday, Reuters said citing two Syrian army sources. The border crossing in Deir ez-Zor was a key channel used by the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to transport weapons to Lebanon through Syria. “The IRGC established a land connection between the Resistance, linking Iran to Iraq, Iraq to Syria, and Syria to Lebanon. Today, you can get in a car in Tehran and disembark in the southern suburbs of Beirut,” former IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani had said in a 2019 speech. … Losing the Iraqi crossing could represent a huge blow to the regional hegemony Iran built up in the wake of the US invasion of Iraq and effectively split a so-called Shi’ite crescent spanning from the Iranian plateau to the Mediterranean. … Local activists said the Syrian army and Tehran-backed forces had pulled out of Deir el-Zor before the SDF advance. Deir ez-Zor is the third city to slip from President Bashar al-Assad’s grasp in a week. Syrian opposition forces earlier captured the cities of Aleppo and Hama and are moving closer to capturing Homs, potentially threatening the capital Damascus and Assad’s rule. … Iran plans to send weapons and personnel to Syria, a senior Iranian official said on Friday. [contrary to the NYT,] However, Russia doesn’t have a plan to save Assad and doesn’t see one emerging as long as the Syrian president’s army continues to abandon its positions, Bloomberg reported Friday citing a person close to the Kremlin. Russia has launched a number of airstrikes against Syrian rebels over the past week; however, it has informed the Assad government that any intervention will be limited as it has other priorities at this time, Sky News Arabia reported Friday.”
“Science in Iran: A catalyst for corruption,” Index on Censorship, 12-6-24.
“Iran conducts successful space launch, raising concerns over nuclear and missile programs,” AP, 12-6-24.
“Iran’s growing influence in the Black Sea region: Consequences and Western responses,” Middle East Institute, 12-6-24.
“Iran Activates Centrifuges After IAEA Rebuke,” Arms Control Association, 12-5-24.
How many? This pictures looks like only a few hundred. The article says 400 men. Not enough. “Iran-backed groups move through Iraq towards Syria to support regime,” MEMO, 12-5-24.
“Russia-Iran-Assad ‘axis of the vulnerable’ cracking in Syria,” Asia Times, 12-5-24.
How to survive? Why not act as a regular country? “Iran’s strategic limbo,” IISS, 12-4-24.
The NYTimes has to be careful it is not helping make reality instead of reporting the news. I am always leery of news saying something has been secret for months but now we are going to tell you. Instead, I prefer to not think about this as a choice of Assad’s, but his being forced by Iran to do its bidding. It is not his staying in power. It is Iran telling Syria what to do, on pain of …. And this is what the NYT article does say finally at the end. BTW, the article also helps the reader know the mess that present Syria is—“Syria is now territorially divided among Mr. al-Assad, Islamist militants, U.S.-backed Kurdish groups and Turkish-backed rebels.” See “With Assad Challenged, a Push to Cut Syria’s Ties to Iran Grows More Unlikely,” NYT, 12-4-24.
“Iran’s jailed Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi allowed to leave prison for 21 days after surgery,” CNN, 12-4-24.
“According to the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran, there have been 798 executions in Iran as of December 1, 2024. With at least 310 executions in the past two months, “the Islamic Republic has begun the most extensive wave of executions in Iranian prisons in the last two decades.” See “Worldwide Monthly Roundup: China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Vietnam,” DPIC, 12-4-24.
“Iran’s deputy FM warns of possible withdrawal from NPT in case of snapback activation,” Press TV, 12-4-24.
“Iran sees record divorce rates as couples blame economic hardships,” Iran International, 12-4-24.
“Nobel committee calls for ‘permanent’ release of Iran’s Mohammadi,” AFP, Times of Israel, 12-4-24.
Iran is No. 1 in terror incidents, and No. 2 in disinformation. “Meta: Russia tops disinformation ops, followed by Iran and China,” SC World, 12-4-24.
“Iran-Allied Syria on the Verge of Collapse or Defection,” Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, 12-3-24.
“US Deepens Sanctions on Iran’s ‘shadow’ Tankers,” Marine Link, 12-3-24.
“Who are Iran Quds Force officers deployed to Syria amid rebel offensive?,” Al Monitor, 12-3-24.
Hezbollah either refuses to participate, or Iran only willing to use Iraqi proxies. Either way, bad news for Assad. “Iraqi fighters head to Syria to battle rebels but Lebanon’s Hezbollah stays out, sources say,” Al Monitor, 12-3-24.
“Israel Fears Rebels, Iranian Militias Will Use Syria War to Get Assad’s Chemical Weapons,” Haaretz, 12-3-24. Iran has allowed these to never be completely destroyed.
But will they? “Iran says ready to deploy forces to Syria,” Iran International, 12-3-24.
This article is a reminder that deterrence is important. When Pres. Obama agreed to not strike Syria because Russia promised to collect all of Syria’s chemical weapons, what did the U.S. do when Russia didn’t follow through? “Israel’s chemical weapons stockpile is a global threat, Iran warns,” MROnline, 12-3-24.
“2024: The year of setbacks for Iran and its axis,” MEMO, 12-3-24.
Things may be falling apart. “Iran expresses Syria frustration to Turkey in a tense visit,” MEE, 12-3-24.
Mismanagement and blame continue on for years. “Iranian president sounds alarm on depleted foreign reserves,” Iran Internationa, 12-3-24.
“Pro-Iranian militias enter Syria from Iraq to aid beleaguered Syrian army,” Reuters, 12-2-24. Several thousand will be called from Hashd al Shaabi, Katiab Hezbollah, and Fatemiyon.
The propaganda war. “Iran Challenges Israel’s Messages of Victory over Hizbullah,” Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, 12-2-24.
Quote of the Day (how do you oppose yourself?) from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. “[The] spread of insecurity and terrorism in the region is not in the interest of any country, emphasizing that all countries in the region must contribute to combating this ominous phenomenon.” See “Iran reaches out to Qatar, Turkey amid Syria fighting – analysis,” JPost, 12-2-24.
“Russia and Iran Pledge Support for Syria’s al-Assad Against Advancing Rebels,” NYT, 12-2-24.
“US, UAE discussed lifting Assad sanctions to isolate Iran,” MEMO, 12-2-24.
The ISI seems incapable of reversal. “Details of Iran’s new hijab law raise widespread concerns,” Iran International, 12-2-24.
“How Iran Sees the Path to Peace: The Islamic Republic Is Open to Negotiations—Including With America,” Foreign Affairs, 12-2-24, by former Iran Ambassador to the UN Mohammad Javad Zarif. Be very wary. One thing he regularly speaks in English comments that are not expressed the same by Zarif in Farsi. But to the point of this article and its title—open to negotiations? How many times have they said that and followed through? Zarif doesn’t mention support for Hezbollah and Nasrallah in the article, the proxies, terrorism, anti-Semitism, or ballistic missile attacks, or the Shia Crescent. No. In short, the most important thing to realize about this article (read it again) is that Kissinger was right—Iran must decide if it will be a normal country or a radical regime. Zarif only offers concessions from the other side for Iran to stop terror or spinning centrifuges. He does not speak of ordered society, non-discrimination, freedoms, trade, schools, health clinics, good relations with neighbors, highways, etc.
“Iran condemned 14 political prisoners to death last month, rights groups say,” Iran International, 12-2-24.
“Iran in crisis: Battling Israel left Tehran too weak to deal with Syria, researcher says,” JPost, 12-2-24.
“Iran’s Parliament Passes Strict ‘Chastity and Hijab’ Law,” Iran Wire, 12-2-24. On Dec. 13 the “Chastity and Hijab” law starts, “a complex system of fines and restrictions targeting what it defines as improper dress for both men and women. Under Article 49, individuals violating dress codes will face escalating financial penalties. Initial offenses will incur fines ranging from 20 million ($285) to 80 million ($1,140) tomans, while subsequent violations will attract higher fines, between 80 million and 165 million ($2,350) tomans. Those unable to pay these fines will encounter significant service restrictions, including impediments to passport renewal, vehicle registration, obtaining country exit permits, releasing impounded vehicles, and acquiring or renewing driving licenses. The law defines improper dress for women as clothing that exposes areas below the neck, above the ankles, or above the wrists, or clothing that “tempts” others. Citizens are encouraged to report violations through the police’s public reporting system. Business owners also face substantial penalties for promoting attire considered inappropriate by the law. A first offense could result in a maximum Grade 3 fine or the payment of two months’ business profit. A second offense escalates to a maximum Grade 2 fine or four months’ business profit. A third offense compounds these penalties with a Grade 5 imprisonment sentence, potentially accompanied by travel bans and advertising restrictions. The legislation mandates immediate detention for individuals deemed “nude” in public spaces. A controversial aspect of the law is its extensive surveillance provision, which allows footage from various government agencies, including the Ministry of Intelligence and the Ministry of Defense, to identify individuals opposing the mandatory hijab.”
“Reform” my foot. The 2023 law was pushed by the Regime for control. “Iranian official says government will take steps to reform new hijab restrictions,” UPI, 12-1-24.
A poor country Iran doesn’t have to be! Wealth beyond measure from under the ground, and a capable people. If only the country’s leadership would let citizens have freedom! “Iran’s Per-Capita is Declining Rapidly,” Iran Focus, 12-1-24.
Embarrassment to Iran to loose Aleppo after helping Assad win it back. “Iran’s top diplomat meets Syrian president in Damascus,” Al Arabiya, 12-1-24. First step will be special forces and snipers and militia. See “Iran FM arrives in Syria to deliver Tehran’s message of ‘firm support’ in battle against terrorism,” Press TV, 12-1-24.
This will be a fun project to watch never happen. It would be longer than the Chunnel but not as deep. But with so many of Iran’s proposed projects, they don’t set aside the needed funds or mismanage the project. Just watch (this will take several years to watch, granted). “Iran, Qatar pursue plans for world’s longest undersea tunnel,” IRNA, 12-1-24.
Talk about deceitful coloring. Check out the gold color given to the dirt in this photo of the Zarshouran mine. “Iran’s largest gold mine reports significant increase in proven reserves,” Tehran Times, 12-1-24. But it’s not the first time. For comparison, see other pictures on the internet, including this one.
“Report: Iran sees ceasefire as a chance to take stock, rebuild Hezbollah,” Times of Israel, 12-1-24.
“Iranian Dissident Rapper Toomaj Salehi Freed From Prison Months After Charges Were Dropped – Update,” Deadline, 12-1-24.
I have been watching over the several months for these types of stories. “Israeli jets block Iranian plane suspected of ferrying arms to Hezbollah over Syria,” Times of Israel, 12-1-24. “Israeli warplanes intercept flight, order it to turn around; incident comes amid efforts to prevent all weapons shipments to Lebanese terror group. … “In recent months, the Israel Defense Forces has forced several Iranian flights to make U-turns over Syrian or Iraqi airspace, after they were suspected of carrying weapons to Hezbollah.” Assad and Khamenei must hate not controlling the skies over Syria.
“Iran’s president appeals to people to help resolve energy crisis,” Iran International, 12-1-24.
“Assad’s downfall could trigger a crisis for Tehran,” Iran International, 12-1-24.
The Arrow system knocks down a ballistic sent by Iran’s proxy. “IDF: Ballistic missile launched by Houthis from Yemen intercepted,” Times of Israel, 12-1-24.
“Rebels in Syria take advantage of Israel’s successes against a weakened Iran axis,” Times of Israel, 12-1-24.
