Today will be a long news day. The actions by Israel overnight are a significant response for Iran’s drive for nuclear weapons and threats, but can also been seen as the result of its radical political terroristic version of Shia Islam that has plagued its neighbors and well beyond. Note that military chief of staff Bagheri and IRGC head Salami and key Ayatollah adviser Shamkhani were killed by the Israel air attacks and covert operations. Together those men did not equal the impact of the 2020 killing of Quds Force head Soleimani by then Pres. Trump, but that action began the domino seen in yesterday’s strikes of pushing back against the Regime. See “Israel hits Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership in unprecedented strikes,” CNN, 6-13-25.
“Iran launched more than 100 drones toward Israel, says IDF spokesperson | LIVE BLOG,” I24, 6-13-25. All were shot down–in other words, as of June 13, despite Iran’s trying to respond directly, it can’t. Thus, it is highly likely it will attack U.S. military targets in the Gulf and soft targets in the next days and weeks.
The IDF’s second defensive attacks (the first were primarily against the nuclear program) were to limit the possible shooting of 100s of ballistic missiles toward Israel. “IDF ‘concludes’ another round of strikes on Iran’s missile arsenal | LIVE BLOG,” I24, 6-13-25.
When reading these stories, a distinct possibility communicated is that a number of Iranian air force generals gathered (several who were reported in the news today as killed) in the middle of the night, they were then trapped in the room, and could have then learned what was about to happen to them. Remember, at the start of an attack the commanders are often the first to be eliminated. “Report: Israel Tricked Top Iranian Military Commanders To Gather. A Missile Was Waiting For Them,” Yeshiva World News, 6-13-25; “Report: Israel successfully deceived top Iran air force commanders into convening ahead of strike,” Times of Israel, 6-13-25.
“The Middle East is tense as Israel’s attacks sink hopes for de-escalation,” NYT, 6-13-25. Let me remind this reporter and the NYT of an important fact—it is hard to escalate if you don’t have leaders. Ask Hezbollah. Ask Hamas. Ask Iran in the time period after Soleimani was killed—he was the Ayatollah’s right hand man (no excuse for the pun).
More thoughts—All Israeli pilots made it back, in both waves. All Iranian drones shot down. Iran’s generals were tricked into coming to a meeting (reminds us of the Hezbollah pager attacks). Air attacks months ago took Iran’s AA offline. Natanz was; we will find out if Fordow was attacked. But the Grand Ayatollah is in a corner, and knows nothing other than violence. Watch for Iran to possibly try to close the Hormuz Straight, which the U.S. will not allow. In fact, watch for the Supreme Leader to send every ballistic missile he can toward Israel’s cities and bases and again U.S. regional bases. There are no signs yet of Israel attacks to two major nuclear sites, the underground enrichment plant at Fordow and the Isfahan nuclear fuel site, but that is probably coming. Citing an earlier story, “Report: Israel successfully deceived top Iran air force commanders into convening ahead of strike,” Times of Israel, 6-13-25.
“An extensive Israeli intelligence effort underpinned the Iran strikes,” NYT, 6-13-25. Way to go Mossad. Here are other relevant events that inform us. “Israel assassinated Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, with a remote-controlled gun in 2020, and assisted when the United States killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s top security and intelligence commander, in a drone strike the same year. … In 2024, “Israel was able to kill Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, by planting an explosive device in a Tehran guesthouse run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel also deeply penetrated Iran’s most powerful Iranian proxy, Hezbollah, leading to a spate of attacks in 2024. In September, it targeted members of the militia in elaborate, coordinated attacks using pagers and walkie-talkies, killing dozens of people and injuring thousands. It was also able to infiltrate the group’s communications, culminating in airstrikes the same month that killed the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah.”
The map reminds us of the widespread and buried “peaceful” nuclear program. “Israel’s strikes targeted some of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities,” NYT, 6-13-25.
I asked earlier today if the Quds chief Qaani was eliminated. It is now being reported he was killed at a Western Iranian military facility. “Report: Head of Iran’s elite Quds Force killed in Israeli strike,” Times of Israel, 6-13-25.
I24 is reporting on t.v. that Putin has phoned Netanyahu and condemned the attack on Iran. He must be thinking his supply of drones could be cut. I-24, 6-13-25.
In case you’re wondering, and amid reports on I-24 t.v. of AA firing near the Supreme Leader’s compound in central Tehran, who takes Ali Khamenei place if he is killed? Per Article 111 of Iran’s constitution, the Supreme Leader’s successor is chosen by the Assembly of Experts, which consists of more than 80 ayatollahs at present. In the interim, the country is administered by a provisional leadership council, of Iran’s president, chief justice, and a member of the Guardian Council. Be aware that pressure from the IRGC and the economic powers it has could distort the selection process. Regardless, he is alive at present. See “Iranian Supreme Leader’s 2-word threat to Israel as he vows revenge,” MSN, 6-13-25.
“Iran launches ballistic missiles at Israel, as Supreme Leader vows to ‘inflict heavy blows’,” BBC, 6-13-25. This started about an hour ago, after 9 p.m. Tel Aviv time.
“Israel’s overnight strike on Iran in maps and images,” BBC, 6-13-25.
“The Real Threat From Iran,” Foreign Affairs, 6-13-25.
The fuel stockpile. “Much of Iran’s Nuclear Program Remains After Israel’s Strikes. At Least for Now,” NYT, 6-13-25. “The first phase of the attack did not hit the most likely repository of Iran’s near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel.” … ““The fact that Israel did not bomb a known uranium production facility at Isfahan,” said Jon Wolfsthal of the Federation of American Scientists, which tracks Iran’s nuclear progress closely, “suggests either that Bibi was worried the bombing might cause a radiological incident or that they actually think this will lead Iran to surrender its uranium stocks voluntarily.” The concern about a “radiological incident” is a real one. Bombing the fuel storage site in its current form would not trigger a nuclear explosion. But it could release the fuel into the environment, creating a radiation hazard, essentially turning the Isfahan plant into a dirty bomb.”