“Live Updates: Israel and Iran Trade Strikes in Increasingly Deadly Attacks,” NYT, 6-15-25.
“Maps and Photos: Israel’s Strikes and Iran’s Missile Retaliation,” NYT, 6-15-25. This article is helpful in two ways. First, it gives about as good a look as any for the public of where the fighting (air, missile, drone) is. Second, this article (its headline) is a reminder that the NYT and the media in general do not portray the real story. The story is not that Israel attacks, then Iran counterattacks. That makes the story sound like this all started with Israel. Instead, the headline AND the story’s text itself do not communicate Iran’s drive for nukes, its animosity toward Israel, the earlier failed attempts to stop the nuclear program including the Obama agreement, and now the passing of the two month deadline from Pres. Trump. Israel had no choice. The world including Europe and the UN were not going to stop the nuclear program. Nor does this article give credit to Israel for being the only country in the world to stop such a deadly program not once (Iraq 1981), or twice (Syria 2007), but now three times (Iran 2025).
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, told the UN Security Council that “the above-ground part of the pilot fuel enrichment plant, where Iran was producing uranium enr Will Israel send commandoes into the nuclear sites, which are undoubtedly booby trapped, to blow up the facilities from within and with air assistance?iched up to 60% U-235, has been destroyed”. But Israel has not attacked some other portions of the program. “Satellite imagery reveals damage to key Iran nuclear sites,” BBC, 6-15-25.
Some varying thoughts garnered from listening to various media. First, per the NYT, the ISI planned to fire about 1,000 ballistics but damage from the IDF’s preemptive strikes on missile bases resulted in less than 100 being fired. Another thought—Will Israel try to kill the Ayatollah? Also, i24 is showing the pictures of mass exodus/traffic jams as persons leave Iran—that is a vote of no confidence in the Iranian government. Here’s another thought—Israel is targeting the nuclear program and the military officers of the Regime. Iran is targeting of civilians in Tel Aviv–that is called war crimes. The only persons killed in Israel have been civilians as of June 15. And there have been Palestinians killed by Iran’s missiles. They do not seem to care, nor the Houthis, even if their indiscriminate fire hits other countries. Last thought for now–The action by Israel against Iran is arguably the biggest change in the Middle East since the 1967 War. And it may be shorter than six days.
I see a NYT op-ed now by Bret Stephens, he is correct, and mirrors my above comments from this morning. “Israel Had the Courage to Do What Needed to Be Done,” NYT, 6-13-25.
Back to the question above, is Israel going after Khamenei? According to this article/NYT, No. “Israel’s Attack in Iran Echoes Its Strategy Against Hezbollah,” NYT, 6-15-25. But after the success against Nasrallah, I predict Yes.
“Iranian media reported that Tehran had warned the U.S., the U.K. and France that it would strike their military bases and naval vessels if they chose to defend Israel against its retaliatory strikes.” See “Starmer confirms military buildup in Middle East as Europe urges restraint,” Politico, 6-15-25.
I was wrong on this question, seeing this article from three hours ago. But imagine the embarrassment of the Supreme Leader, who has used every name in the book against the United States, its presidents, and Donald Trump. And now Pres. Trump has spared him. “Trump vetoed Israeli plan to kill Iran’s supreme leader, US officials say,” Reuters, 6-15-25.
“A quick deal now that would give up enrichment would be seen as a surrender, said Vali Nasr, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies who served in the State Department during the Obama administration. That could make the Iranian government more vulnerable at home. “They won’t give up enrichment, not this easily,” he said. “They’re not going to surrender.”” So, why not give them sanctions relief to save face? The article doesn’t explore this. See “Diplomacy With Iran Is Damaged, Not Dead,” NYT, 6-15-25.
So where is the Grand Ayatollah? “Khamenei and his family hiding in bunker north of Tehran, sources say,” Iran International, 6-15-25. “Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was moved to an underground bunker in Lavizan in northeastern Tehran hours after Israel began its attacks on Tehran early Friday, two informed sources inside Iran told Iran International. All members of Khamenei’s family including his son Mojtaba are with him, the sources said. … The diplomatic source added that Israel could have eliminated Khamenei on the first night of the operation, but the Israeli government chose to keep him alive to give him a final chance to decide on completely dismantling the Islamic Republic’s uranium enrichment program. … With the start of Israel’s airstrikes, that opportunity has been offered once again — this time for him to realistically assess Israel’s military capability and order the dismantling of the enrichment program, the sources said.”
Yes, people are fleeing Tehran. Traffic was already bad, now it is hardly moving. “Massive Israeli air raids engulf Tehran: Intelligence ministry hit, bazaar shut,” Iran International, 6-15-25.
Iran and Hamas are, not surprisingly, following the same demand—the IDF attacks must stop first. But neither will give up its “right” to enrich uranium (Iran) or the hostages (Hamas). “Iran turns to Qatar, Oman in bid to halt Israeli strikes, U.S. presses for nuclear concessions,” I24, 6-15-25.
We were waiting for this. “Reports of ‘massive blast,’ 2.5 magnitude earthquake in vicinity of Iran’s Fordow nuclear plant,” i24, 6-15-25. An earthquake? No. BTW, Fordow is just a half hour drive from Qom, Iran’s Shia spiritual center. That is a message to the world, and now this is a message to the ayatollah-driven radical autocracy.
“350 missiles fired from Iran and 24 casualties since the start of Rising Lion | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 6-15-25.
“Brain behind Iran’s nuclear detonation technology killed in Israeli strike,” Iran International, 6-15-25. Nuclear explosion triggers have no role in peaceful nuclear energy programs.
It is unclear how the Leader is doing this since no one is wearing beepers/pagers and he is holed up in his bunker. Via smoke signal? (too soon). See “Inside Khamenei’s war cabinet: how Iran guides its contest with Israel,” Iran International, 6-15-25. As much as Iran Intl’ reporting has been accurate worldwide the last couple of years, this article doesn’t actually say how the cabinet is operating.
“Trump vetoed Israeli plan to kill Iran’s supreme leader, US officials say,” Reuters, 6-15-25.