Month: June 2025

Let’s pick up where yesterday ended.  “Trump Privately Approved of Attack Plans for Iran but Has Withheld Final Order,” WSJ, 6-18-25.  Pres. Trump is “holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear program.”  I understand that Iran has sent its executive branch airplanes to Muscat, Oman, with diplomats.  We’ll see what they tell the U.S.  One way this could end is if Iran publicly gives the U.S. permission to drop the bunker buster(s)(the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP)) into Fordo and destroy that facility.  Israel and the U.S. would then go away.  That seems reasonable.

“At Least 7 Iranian missiles hit Israel; heavy damage at Be’er Sheva hospital | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 6-19-25.  “In Beersheba, the former surgical building of Soroka Hospital sustained heavy damage, and several people with minor injuries are being treated in the emergency room. … Health Minister Uriel Buso responded to the direct attack on Soroka Hospital by calling it “terrorism” and a “crossing of a red line.” He denounced it as a “war crime deliberately committed by the Iranian regime against innocent civilians and medical teams dedicated to saving lives.” He said the ministry had prepared in advance, preventing disaster.”

So, I’m going to post this on June 19, when Pres. Trump is debating whether a B-2 will drop a bunker buster(s) on Fordo.  So much has just recently focused on whether the U.S. will be dragged into another Middle East war if this act is seen as offensive.  But if defensive, to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon, you can see the interest.  Part of the argument by persons against “another war” is that we should all give Iran the chance for diplomacy.  Will they?  Or do they just want to delay more?  Here is a German perspective that the Supreme Leader needs to make up his mind.  “Germany’s Merz says US weighing participation in Iran strikes,” Politico, 6-17-25.  The German Chancellor says “the decision depends on whether the Iranian regime “is prepared to return” to the negotiating table.”

Another option for the president and for Israel is to send drones into Fordow, perhaps with a commando team, to video and collect samples.  Before destroying it.

Been waiting for this attack at Arak.  “Israel carries out major airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear reactor in Arak,” i24, 6-19-25.

“Iranian TV hacked, protest footage aired; Israel blamed for cyber offensive,” i24, 6-19-25.

Yes!  The mass media and Left and MAGA should take notice.  “In Los Angeles, Iranian Jews Dream of an Iran They Could One Day Visit,” WSJ, 6-19-25.

What is the point, CNN?  You’ve sent a reporter inside the Regime media outlet IRIB.  Are you there to protect press rights?  What about government controlled and pro-Regime press?  And then you say there “is a lot of public anger that the Israelis attacked this site.”  Really?!  “See inside Iranian TV studio hit by Israeli airstrike,” CNN, 6-19-25.

A really surprising story from the NYT and its experts.  First, it is not a matter of Iran’s ballistics versus Israel’s interceptors.  The IDF air force continues to knock out Iran’s launchers, they only have about 100 left.  Second, Israel’s stock of interceptors is not running low.  And the number is not infinite, they continue to be produced.  There is one wild card, Iran’s specialized ballistic missiles that are cluster bombs and are opening 7 km above ground and are being used by Iran against Israel and its citizens.  They began to use these Thursday.  Those need more interceptors from Israel.  But the bottom line, Israel has more supplies than the Regime has ballistics.  See “Will Israel’s Interceptors Outlast Iran’s Missiles? The Answer May Shape the War,” NYT, 6-19-25.  Well, maybe I’ll cut the NYT some slack because they wrote this story  overnight and things are changing by the hour in the fast win by Israel.

To say I’m surprised, Yes.  Two weeks is a long time.  5 minutes is all it takes to hear from the Ayatollah.  But extra time leaves no excuse for the Regime to not decide if it will give up its weapons program, and no can say the U.S. didn’t give Iran a chance.  “Trump to Decide on Potential Iran Strikes Within Two Weeks,” WSJ, 6-19-25.

Correct.  But without a nuclear weapon on the shelf.  “Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Poised for More Power,” WSJ, 6-19-25.

“Israel threatens Iran’s top leader after missiles damage hospital and wound more than 200,” Politico, 6-19-25.

“Exclusive: Iran’s Kurdish faction seeks contact with IDF,” Politico, 6-19-25.

“Report: Iran-US envoys hold direct talks as conflict with Israel continues,” i24, 6-19-25.

“Trump Buys Himself Time, and Opens Up Some New Options,” NYT, 6-19-25.

15 Days to a nuke once the Leader says Go.  BTW, the fatwa against nuclear weapons doesn’t exist, it has never been seen.  “U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb,” NYT, 6-19-25.

“In Crisis With Iran, U.S. Military Officials Focus on Strait of Hormuz,” NYT, 6-19-25.

I’m going to start today by reflecting on the changing Middle East, and using a story I posted yesterday and a second one today to make a point.  So, where is the Middle East going?  Toward modernity and trade and law, and agreements like the Abraham Accords, or will it stay in a place where countries’ status is equal just because they are countries, regardless of how they act?  The NYT and those that prefer its take on the world are going to have to decide if they prefer the Israel model or the Iran model of governance.  Yesterday and today there are articles about what the Arabs are saying about this.  As of this morning, the NYT and the Democratic Party broadly are still stuck in a place where Israel and Iran are equated, like having equal seats at the UN General Assembly.  Well, I’d rather live in Israel, and I think most persons would if they have to chose between the two countries.  The Iranian people certainly prefer the Israel model over the ayatollah-led radical Islam revolution, and the Arab states do also.  See “Arabic source to i24NEWS: “Israel’s actions in Iran promote relations with Saudi Arabia,” i24, 6-17-25.  See “In Attacking Iran, Israel Further Alienates Would-Be Arab Allies,” NYT, 6-18-25.

I’m not looking to fight NYT, I have other duties.  And this is a blog about Iran.  But the NYT worldview is distorting the news.  Today’s statement by the NYT, speaking of Ayatollah Khamenei, is too much:  “He has played a key role in positioning Iran as a counterweight to American, Israeli and Saudi influence across the Middle East.”  What?!  That completely ignores history since 1979, and completely presents this as some sort of balancing affair of regional politics.  The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel are not some kind of 900 pound gorillas.  Several U.S. presidents even want to draw down U.S. activities in the Middle East, and pivot toward the Far East.  The problem is Iran, and has been.  NYT, do you remember the Hostage Crisis?  And Beirut?  And Hezbollah?  All the way up to the Hamas attack Oct. 7, 2023.  See “In a defiant address, Iran’s supreme leader rejects Trump’s call to surrender,” NYT, 6-18-25.  BTW, the Supreme Leader is unwilling to give up his nuclear enrichment and accept sanctions relief.  This is absolutely in line with his life decisions, and how this blog has reflected the stories of his policies.  He will not surrender.  That seals his fate.  I don’t think Russia will take him in like they did Assad.

The result of Iran’s decision.  Iran doesn’t want international news reaching its people, so it cut the lines.  This is an indication that Iran really feels threatened.  “Iran enters near-total internet blackout, NetBlocks says,” Iran International, 6-18-25.

“Khamenei rejects Trump’s call for surrender, warns against US intervention,” Iran International, 6-18-25.  It must be galling for him that he has fewer and fewer missiles (only 5-7 ballistics fired against Israel tonight) and drones to use each day, and that his army and navy are almost toothless.  And that the Jewish state’s air force has control of his skies.  And that Fordo’s days are numbered.  It is all coming crashing down.

Many of us are thinking about post-war Iran, with or without the Supreme Leader.  But let’s get it right what is happening, Israel is knocking out/back the nuclear program.  So when we read Foreign Affairs today, released yesterday, and see Robert Pape claiming “Israel has engaged in a protracted air campaign in Iran to achieve something no other country has ever done before: topple a government and eliminate its major military capability using airpower alone. … Israel appears to be falling into the “smart-bomb trap,” in which overconfidence in precision weapons and intelligence not only allows the country’s leaders to believe that they can stop an Iranian nuclear breakout and even topple the regime of the Islamic Republic but also leaves Israel less secure than before. Airpower, no matter how targeted and intense, is not certain to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program in its entirety, nor will it clear a path for regime change in Tehran. In fact, if the historical record is any indication, Israel’s overconfidence in what its technologically advanced weapons can do is likely to harden Iran’s resolve and produce the opposite of its intended results: a more dangerous Iran, now armed with nuclear weapons. Without a ground invasion (highly improbable) or direct U.S. support (which the Trump administration may be wary to provide), Israel’s military successes in Iran and beyond could very well be short-lived.”  Sure, Israel may want Iran to have a change in management.  But this article is proposing a motive that is not exhibited.  See “Israel’s Futile Air War: Precision Strikes Will Not Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program—or Its Government,” Foreign Affairs, 6-17-25.  Pape must certainly know that it is the Iranian people who have to make the decision about how they are governed.  Look what just happened in Lebanon, where the traditional army and citizens were empowered (but there is still work there to do to disarm Iran’s Hezbollah).

Brilliant move by Israel, sending Pres. Herzog out to ask all countries for assistance.  Is this the first time in world history that the interest of all persons have been called on to eliminate a bad actor from developing nuclear weapons?  Will the UN (and because of the recent announcement by the IAEA) take a position?  And think about the antithesis to Israel’s position—Will Iran call on all countries to protect its nuclear weapons program?  “Israeli president calls on the world to help destroy Iran nuclear sites,” NPR, 6-18-25.

“Israeli Air Dominance Means It Is Taking Out Iranian Missiles Before They Launch,” WSJ, 6-18-25.  Israel has now taken out about 2/3 of Iran’s missile launchers.  This leaves about 100 launchers.  BTW, there is such a difference between NYT and WSJ coverage.

They know they will be attacked, that’s why.  “Why Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Is Missing in Action,” WSJ, 6-18-25.

“Trump Privately Approved of Attack Plans for Iran but Has Withheld Final Order,” WSJ, 6-18-25.

Good article.  “Options for Targeting Iran’s Fordow Nuclear Facility,” CSIS, 6-18-25.

The targeting of selected Iranian nuclear scientists by Israel over several years was to encourage them to find a new form of employment, such as a college physics professor, but not as someone trying to create nuclear weapons and use them against Israel.  Now we see this playing out again.  “IDF kills Ali Shadmani, newly appointed Iranian Chief of Staff,” i24, 6-17-25.  The IDF’s action continues to box in the Supreme Leader, as the new military chief had been on the job only four days.

This is the first time since the 1973 War that Israel is fighting against another country (not a terror group).  And here the odds are in Israel’s favor.

Wow again.  “The perceived weakening of Iran is creating conditions that could pave the way for Israeli-Saudi normalization. Riyadh appears to view Israeli military pressure on Iran as a strategic opportunity to undermine its main regional rival—while simultaneously holding firm on its demands regarding the Palestinian issue.”  See “Arabic source to i24NEWS: “Israel’s actions in Iran promote relations with Saudi Arabia,” i24, 6-17-25.

A NYT reporter named Ms. Jakes has an article today, “As Israel targets Iran’s nuclear program, it has a secret one of its own,” NYT, 6-17-25.  What is interesting is that she can’t make the case, though it is implied, of moral equivalence between Israel’s and Iran’s nuclear programs.  Israel’s program, if it does include weapons, certainly has never been threatened for use, but only for self-defense.  That is something the Regime cannot claim.

“Despite Close Ties With Iran, Russia Stands Aside as Israel Attacks,” NYT, 6-17-25.

“Iran Is Preparing Missiles for Possible Retaliatory Strikes on U.S. Bases, Officials Say,” NYT, 6-17-25.

“Israel hasn’t hit Iran’s secretive Fordo nuclear facility yet. Here’s why it might,” CBS, 6-17-25.

“IDF official: Iran’s goal was an 8,000-missile arsenal to annihilate Israel,” Israel National News, 6-17-25.  They wanted to swamp Arrow, THAAD, etc.

As we are all noticing, there is little news / helpful information coming out of Iran in the past week, as the Regime finds itself overwhelmed by Israel, and because it is reluctant to admit miscalculation, defeats, strikes, etc. to its own population.  So it is, I hate to say comical, to see this story from the Fars news agency (controlled by the IRGC).  The IRGC doesn’t want to be cut in half like its Hezbollah fighters were.  “Iran orders officials to ditch connected devices,” Politico, 6-17-25.  BTW, I’ve only seen one news story about Pres. Pezeshkian.  He is MIA in the news (but alive).  This is a reminder that the Iranian president has few powers—everything is about the Great Ayatollah/Supreme Leader.

“Iran Is Preparing Missiles for Possible Retaliatory Strikes on U.S. Bases, Officials Say,” NYT, 6-17-25.  There are currently 40,000 U.S. forces in the Middle East.

“US critical networks are prime targets for cyberattacks. They’re preparing for Iran to strike,” Politico, 6-17-25.

News from overnight.  “Trump: ‘sometimes you have to fight until the end,’ as Iran refuses negotiations,” i24, 6-16-25.  “Iran has rejected mediation efforts by Qatar and Oman to broker a ceasefire while Israeli strikes are ongoing.”  And Fordow and Natanz are being attacked.

Wouldn’t it be great if this were the end of the Quds Force?  They’ve killed and threatened so many Iranian dissidents around the world, and the same against persons of other nationality and country leaders.  Thousands.  They have done the bidding of the two Supreme Leaders for decades, and are dangerous, embedded often in embassies.  Hey NYT, this is not just some “powerful Iranian military unit” as your headline says.  This is THE Quds Force, specifically tasked with spreading the Iranian Revolution.  They also oversee Quds Day, the only national holiday in the world pointed at taking Jerusalem by force and wiping Israel away.  Good riddance.  Soleimani was killed by Pres. Trump in 2020, now Israel has killed the next Quds head, Qaani, on the 13th.  “Live Updates: Israel Says It Attacked Headquarters of Powerful Iranian Military Unit,” i24, 6-16-25.  In other news, Iran’s missiles hit the refinery in Haifa, and for another night, Iran hit civilians in several cities across Israel, including Petach Tikva.  I said civilians, that is who Iran is targeting.

“IDF destroys a third of Iran’s missile launchers, establishes air superiority,” i24, 6-16-25.

It will be interesting to see how the Supreme Leader conducts himself at this coming Friday’s Prayers.

This Israeli made me think about the bigger picture; he put it into words quite well.  “Petah Tikva resident Yoram Suki rushed with his family to a shelter after hearing an air raid alert, and emerged after it was over to find his apartment destroyed. Despite losing his home, he urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to keep up the attacks on Iran. “It’s totally worth it,” the 60-year-old said. “This is for the sake of our children and grandchildren.””  See “Iran missile attacks on Israel kill 8. Israel warns some Tehran residents to evacuate before strikes,” AP, 6-16-25.  In other words, for over 40 years Iran has been threatening others, but mainly Israel.  Israel and the United States (the Little Satan and the Big Satan)(and don’t forget J.V. Satan Saudi Arabia) have been targeted over and over again.  But the anti-Semitic Regime has especially hated the Jewish State and its citizens.  This man, Mr. Suki, is seeing that if Iran can be put in its place, he and his family can have peace.  And not just Jews in Israel, but the Arabs living there.  Already things are better with Lebanon and Syria.  And Jordan and Egypt have treaties with Israel.  The war with Hamas (and Hezbollah) are because of Iran’s backing.  Getting the genie put back in the bottle in Tehran would be so good for Israel, and everyone else.

“Debris falls in Iranian TV studio during live broadcast as Israel strikes state media,” BBC, 6-16-25.  Iranian State Broadcasting has not accurately reported since the beginning of the conflict, and here is interrupted during a live broadcast with a ceiling explosion.  This quickly brings to mind “Comical Ali,” the Information Minister of Saddam Hussein during the 1991 Gulf War and the daily press briefings in Baghdad in which he made claims wildly different than reality and was rightfully treated as parody.

Wow.  Israeli PM Netanyahu told ABC’s Jon Karl how the cow ate the cabbage.  Here is just part of the explanation of Iran’s history since 1979.  “”We’ve had half a century of conflict spread by this regime that terrorizes everyone in the Middle East; has bombed the Aramco oil fields in Saudi Arabia; is spreading terrorism and subversion and sabotage everywhere,” Netanyahu said. “The ‘forever war’ is what Iran wants, and they’re bringing us to the brink of nuclear war. In fact, what Israel is doing is preventing this, bringing an end to this aggression, and we can only do so by standing up to the forces of evil.”  See the full interview at “Netanyahu tells ABC he’s not ruling out taking out Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,” ABC, 6-16-25.

“Israel-Iran conflict shows no signs of ending as it enters its fourth day,” NBC, 6-16-25.

Ignore the headline, read the story.  There you will read that Iran is not willing yet to give up its nuclear weapons program.  See “Iran offers nuclear concessions if US won’t join attack,” Hayom, 6-16-25.

“Will Iran’s hated regime implode?,” Economist, 6-16-25.  The Economist is correct that “Its default is to defy aggressors, not to capitulate.”  But the nationalism the Regime depended on in times of crisis is now shot.  Literally and figuratively.  The Regime has lost the backing of the people.  The people will not say We have the right to nuclear weapons.  They just want a normal life.

“Public condemnation, private interest: Arab world response to Israel’s Iran strikes – opinion,” JPost, 6-16-25.

This article raises a thought in my mind.  “How Tough Is Iran? A String of Military Losses Raises Question,” NYT, 6-16-25.  Here’s the thought, as reflected in “A Sprawling Israeli Intelligence Effort Underpinned the Iran Strikes,” NYT, 6-13-25.  The IDF and Mossad wouldn’t have the success they are having but for Iranians on the inside turning on their own government.  You can’t achieve this high level of operational success without the real desire by Iranians to see the Regime gone.

“Iran’s Best-Protected Nuclear Site Is Deep Underground,” NYT, 6-16-25.

This is probably SoS/NSA Rubio’s advice to Pres. Trump.  “The U.S. has a unique opportunity to gain a potentially decisive advantage against Russia and China. To seize it, Mr. Trump would strengthen U.S. security immeasurably by allowing Israel to finish the job against Iran, if necessary applying American power to this end as well.”  Read the entire article.  “Israel Hands America an Opportunity in the Mideast,” WSJ, 6-16-25.

“A Battered Iran Signals It Wants to De-Escalate Hostilities With Israel and Negotiate,” WSJ, 6-16-25.

“Live Updates: Israel and Iran Trade Strikes in Increasingly Deadly Attacks,” NYT, 6-15-25.

“Maps and Photos: Israel’s Strikes and Iran’s Missile Retaliation,” NYT, 6-15-25.  This article is helpful in two ways.  First, it gives about as good a look as any for the public of where the fighting (air, missile, drone) is.  Second, this article (its headline) is a reminder that the NYT and the media in general do not portray the real story.  The story is not that Israel attacks, then Iran counterattacks.  That makes the story sound like this all started with Israel.  Instead, the headline AND the story’s text itself do not communicate Iran’s drive for nukes, its animosity toward Israel, the earlier failed attempts to stop the nuclear program including the Obama agreement, and now the passing of the two month deadline from Pres. Trump.  Israel had no choice.  The world including Europe and the UN were not going to stop the nuclear program.  Nor does this article give credit to Israel for being the only country in the world to stop such a deadly program not once (Iraq 1981), or twice (Syria 2007), but now three times (Iran 2025).

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, told the UN Security Council that “the above-ground part of the pilot fuel enrichment plant, where Iran was producing uranium enr Will Israel send commandoes into the nuclear sites, which are undoubtedly booby trapped, to blow up the facilities from within and with air assistance?iched up to 60% U-235, has been destroyed”.  But Israel has not attacked some other portions of the program.  “Satellite imagery reveals damage to key Iran nuclear sites,” BBC, 6-15-25.

Some varying thoughts garnered from listening to various media.  First, per the NYT, the ISI planned to fire about 1,000 ballistics but damage from the IDF’s preemptive strikes on missile bases resulted in less than 100 being fired.  Another thought—Will Israel try to kill the Ayatollah?  Also, i24 is showing the pictures of mass exodus/traffic jams as persons leave Iran—that is a vote of no confidence in the Iranian government.  Here’s another thought—Israel is targeting the nuclear program and the military officers of the Regime.  Iran is targeting of civilians in Tel Aviv–that is called war crimes.  The only persons killed in Israel have been civilians as of June 15.  And there have been Palestinians killed by Iran’s missiles.  They do not seem to care, nor the Houthis, even if their indiscriminate fire hits other countries.  Last thought for now–The action by Israel against Iran is arguably the biggest change in the Middle East since the 1967 War.  And it may be shorter than six days.

I see a NYT op-ed now by Bret Stephens, he is correct, and mirrors my above comments from this morning.  “Israel Had the Courage to Do What Needed to Be Done,” NYT, 6-13-25.

Back to the question above, is Israel going after Khamenei?  According to this article/NYT, No.  “Israel’s Attack in Iran Echoes Its Strategy Against Hezbollah,” NYT, 6-15-25.  But after the success against Nasrallah, I predict Yes.

“Iranian media reported that Tehran had warned the U.S., the U.K. and France that it would strike their military bases and naval vessels if they chose to defend Israel against its retaliatory strikes.”  See “Starmer confirms military buildup in Middle East as Europe urges restraint,” Politico, 6-15-25.

I was wrong on this question, seeing this article from three hours ago.  But imagine the embarrassment of the Supreme Leader, who has used every name in the book against the United States, its presidents, and Donald Trump.  And now Pres. Trump has spared him.  “Trump vetoed Israeli plan to kill Iran’s supreme leader, US officials say,” Reuters, 6-15-25.

“A quick deal now that would give up enrichment would be seen as a surrender, said Vali Nasr, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies who served in the State Department during the Obama administration. That could make the Iranian government more vulnerable at home. “They won’t give up enrichment, not this easily,” he said. “They’re not going to surrender.””  So, why not give them sanctions relief to save face?  The article doesn’t explore this.  See “Diplomacy With Iran Is Damaged, Not Dead,” NYT, 6-15-25.

So where is the Grand Ayatollah?  “Khamenei and his family hiding in bunker north of Tehran, sources say,” Iran International, 6-15-25.  “Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was moved to an underground bunker in Lavizan in northeastern Tehran hours after Israel began its attacks on Tehran early Friday, two informed sources inside Iran told Iran International. All members of Khamenei’s family including his son Mojtaba are with him, the sources said. … The diplomatic source added that Israel could have eliminated Khamenei on the first night of the operation, but the Israeli government chose to keep him alive to give him a final chance to decide on completely dismantling the Islamic Republic’s uranium enrichment program. … With the start of Israel’s airstrikes, that opportunity has been offered once again — this time for him to realistically assess Israel’s military capability and order the dismantling of the enrichment program, the sources said.”

Yes, people are fleeing Tehran.  Traffic was already bad, now it is hardly moving.  “Massive Israeli air raids engulf Tehran: Intelligence ministry hit, bazaar shut,” Iran International, 6-15-25.

Iran and Hamas are, not surprisingly, following the same demand—the IDF attacks must stop first.  But neither will give up its “right” to enrich uranium (Iran) or the hostages (Hamas).  “Iran turns to Qatar, Oman in bid to halt Israeli strikes, U.S. presses for nuclear concessions,” I24, 6-15-25.

We were waiting for this.  “Reports of ‘massive blast,’ 2.5 magnitude earthquake in vicinity of Iran’s Fordow nuclear plant,” i24, 6-15-25.  An earthquake?  No.  BTW, Fordow is just a half hour drive from Qom, Iran’s Shia spiritual center.  That is a message to the world, and now this is a message to the ayatollah-driven radical autocracy.

“350 missiles fired from Iran and 24 casualties since the start of Rising Lion | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 6-15-25.

“Brain behind Iran’s nuclear detonation technology killed in Israeli strike,” Iran International, 6-15-25.  Nuclear explosion triggers have no role in peaceful nuclear energy programs.

It is unclear how the Leader is doing this since no one is wearing beepers/pagers and he is holed up in his bunker.  Via smoke signal?  (too soon).  See “Inside Khamenei’s war cabinet: how Iran guides its contest with Israel,” Iran International, 6-15-25.  As much as Iran Intl’ reporting has been accurate worldwide the last couple of years, this article doesn’t actually say how the cabinet is operating.

“Trump vetoed Israeli plan to kill Iran’s supreme leader, US officials say,” Reuters, 6-15-25.

The toll of the Regime appears to be catching up with it; not able to put up 100 missiles.  “Iranian response: less than 100 missiles were launched at Israel overnight,” i24, 6-14-25.  Two waves from Iranian territory, mainly aiming for Tel Aviv.

“Two casualties, widespread damage from Iranian rockets | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 6-14-25.

There is another reason, the disruption of losing commanders and for the Iranian representatives not knowing what the negotiating position should be.  “Iran: dialogue with U.S. now “meaningless” after Israeli strikes,” i24, 6-14-25.  BTW, if you wonder why i24, I’m still looking at all news sources, but i24 is one of the very best at this precise moment.  Iranian news is certainly unhelpful in knowing what is happening.  And this article has a section at the end showing how the Regime’s poor decisions over 40 plus years have come home to roost.  “U.S. President Donald Trump weighed in with a sharply worded post on social media. “I gave the Iranians one last chance for a deal. Now everyone is dead, and it will only get worse,” he wrote, warning that further attacks could escalate dramatically unless Tehran agrees to a nuclear deal. Trump criticized Iran’s leadership for failing to secure an agreement: “No matter how hard they tried, they just couldn’t close the deal. Israel knows how to use its weapons.” Still, he left open the possibility of a deal, cautioning that if one is not reached, “there will be nothing left of the Iranian empire.” The flare-up comes after months of stalled nuclear talks, with Iran insisting on the right to enrich uranium domestically, while the U.S. has sought alternative frameworks involving international oversight — proposals repeatedly rejected by Tehran.”  The two Supreme Leaders have repeatedly missed their chances to join the modern and normal world.

“Iran threatens to target U.S. bases in the Middle East,” i24, 6-14-25.

“On IDF’s chart of eliminated Iranian security leaders, Qaani listed as still alive,” i24, 6-14-25.  Apparently the Quds Force leader is not yet dead.

Amazing that Iran folded so quickly.  “Israeli air force achieved freedom of operation in Tehran’s airspace, IDF says,” Axios, 6-14-25.

Fordow.  “Israel’s mission hinges on destroying Iran’s hardest nuclear target,” Axios, 6-14-25.  Israel has attacked the surface but not the deep underground.  Yet.  I predict special forces to blow it up from within, assisted by air.

“Israel urges U.S. to join war with Iran to eliminate nuclear program,” Axios, 6-14-25.  No, the U.S. will not participate in bombing Fordow.  But it will certainly allow Israel to finish the job.  And the U.S. will help defend Israel from Iran’s missiles.

Today will be a long news day.  The actions by Israel overnight are a significant response for Iran’s drive for nuclear weapons and threats, but can also been seen as the result of its radical political terroristic version of Shia Islam that has plagued its neighbors and well beyond.  Note that military chief of staff Bagheri and IRGC head Salami and key Ayatollah adviser Shamkhani were killed by the Israel air attacks and covert operations.  Together those men did not equal the impact of the 2020 killing of Quds Force head Soleimani by then Pres. Trump, but that action began the domino seen in yesterday’s strikes of pushing back against the Regime.  See “Israel hits Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership in unprecedented strikes,” CNN, 6-13-25.

“Iran launched more than 100 drones toward Israel, says IDF spokesperson | LIVE BLOG,” I24, 6-13-25.  All were shot down–in other words, as of June 13, despite Iran’s trying to respond directly, it can’t.  Thus, it is highly likely it will attack U.S. military targets in the Gulf and soft targets in the next days and weeks.

The IDF’s second defensive attacks (the first were primarily against the nuclear program) were to limit the possible shooting of 100s of ballistic missiles toward Israel.  “IDF ‘concludes’ another round of strikes on Iran’s missile arsenal | LIVE BLOG,” I24, 6-13-25.

When reading these stories, a distinct possibility communicated is that a number of Iranian air force generals gathered (several who were reported in the news today as killed) in the middle of the night, they were then trapped in the room, and could have then learned what was about to happen to them.  Remember, at the start of an attack the commanders are often the first to be eliminated.  “Report: Israel Tricked Top Iranian Military Commanders To Gather. A Missile Was Waiting For Them,” Yeshiva World News, 6-13-25; “Report: Israel successfully deceived top Iran air force commanders into convening ahead of strike,” Times of Israel, 6-13-25.

“The Middle East is tense as Israel’s attacks sink hopes for de-escalation,” NYT, 6-13-25.  Let me remind this reporter and the NYT of an important fact—it is hard to escalate if you don’t have leaders.  Ask Hezbollah.  Ask Hamas.  Ask Iran in the time period after Soleimani was killed—he was the Ayatollah’s right hand man (no excuse for the pun).

More thoughts—All Israeli pilots made it back, in both waves.  All Iranian drones shot down.  Iran’s generals were tricked into coming to a meeting (reminds us of the Hezbollah pager attacks).  Air attacks months ago took Iran’s AA offline.  Natanz was; we will find out if Fordow was attacked.  But the Grand Ayatollah is in a corner, and knows nothing other than violence.  Watch for Iran to possibly try to close the Hormuz Straight, which the U.S. will not allow.  In fact, watch for the Supreme Leader to send every ballistic missile he can toward Israel’s cities and bases and again U.S. regional bases.  There are no signs yet of Israel attacks to two major nuclear sites, the underground enrichment plant at Fordow and the Isfahan nuclear fuel site, but that is probably coming.  Citing an earlier story, “Report: Israel successfully deceived top Iran air force commanders into convening ahead of strike,” Times of Israel, 6-13-25.

“An extensive Israeli intelligence effort underpinned the Iran strikes,” NYT, 6-13-25.  Way to go Mossad.  Here are other relevant events that inform us.  “Israel assassinated Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, with a remote-controlled gun in 2020, and assisted when the United States killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s top security and intelligence commander, in a drone strike the same year. … In 2024, “Israel was able to kill Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, by planting an explosive device in a Tehran guesthouse run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel also deeply penetrated Iran’s most powerful Iranian proxy, Hezbollah, leading to a spate of attacks in 2024. In September, it targeted members of the militia in elaborate, coordinated attacks using pagers and walkie-talkies, killing dozens of people and injuring thousands. It was also able to infiltrate the group’s communications, culminating in airstrikes the same month that killed the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah.”

The map reminds us of the widespread and buried “peaceful” nuclear program.   “Israel’s strikes targeted some of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities,” NYT, 6-13-25.

I asked earlier today if the Quds chief Qaani was eliminated.  It is now being reported he was killed at a Western Iranian military facility.  “Report: Head of Iran’s elite Quds Force killed in Israeli strike,” Times of Israel, 6-13-25.

I24 is reporting on t.v. that Putin has phoned Netanyahu and condemned the attack on Iran.  He must be thinking his supply of drones could be cut.  I-24, 6-13-25.

In case you’re wondering, and amid reports on I-24 t.v. of AA firing near the Supreme Leader’s compound in central Tehran, who takes Ali Khamenei place if he is killed?  Per Article 111 of Iran’s constitution, the Supreme Leader’s successor is chosen by the Assembly of Experts, which consists of more than 80 ayatollahs at present.  In the interim, the country is administered by a provisional leadership council, of Iran’s president, chief justice, and a member of the Guardian Council.  Be aware that pressure from the IRGC and the economic powers it has could distort the selection process.  Regardless, he is alive at present.  See “Iranian Supreme Leader’s 2-word threat to Israel as he vows revenge,” MSN, 6-13-25.

“Iran launches ballistic missiles at Israel, as Supreme Leader vows to ‘inflict heavy blows’,” BBC, 6-13-25.  This started about an hour ago, after 9 p.m. Tel Aviv time.

“Israel’s overnight strike on Iran in maps and images,” BBC, 6-13-25.

“The Real Threat From Iran,” Foreign Affairs, 6-13-25.

The fuel stockpile.  “Much of Iran’s Nuclear Program Remains After Israel’s Strikes. At Least for Now,” NYT, 6-13-25.  “The first phase of the attack did not hit the most likely repository of Iran’s near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel.” … ““The fact that Israel did not bomb a known uranium production facility at Isfahan,” said Jon Wolfsthal of the Federation of American Scientists, which tracks Iran’s nuclear progress closely, “suggests either that Bibi was worried the bombing might cause a radiological incident or that they actually think this will lead Iran to surrender its uranium stocks voluntarily.” The concern about a “radiological incident” is a real one. Bombing the fuel storage site in its current form would not trigger a nuclear explosion. But it could release the fuel into the environment, creating a radiation hazard, essentially turning the Isfahan plant into a dirty bomb.”

The blog author has been traveling for some time, and is now catching up on entries; today we begin posting the news from a couple of days ago that the Regime’s religion of peace has again violated its own pledge.  Then we post about the attacks by Israel and then Iran.  First, “Iran to significantly increase uranium enrichment in wake of IAEA resolution,” I24, 6-12-25.

“Iran Is Breaking Rules on Nuclear Activity, U.N. Watchdog Says,” NYT, 6-12-25.  “The International Atomic Energy Agency declared on Thursday that Iran was not complying with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations, the first time the U.N. watchdog has passed a resolution against the country in 20 years. … The agency also said Iran consistently failed to provide information about undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple locations. Iran had reacted angrily to the prospect of the vote and threatened to leave the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which came into force in 1970.”  (Think about that logic—Iran says it is not trying to make weapons, the IAEA says it looks likely, so Iran responds by saying it will—Iran does not have clean hands in this multi-year drama of its own making).

See “Iran doubles down as US signals Israel could strike despite nuclear talks,” Al Jazeera, 6-12-25.  I believe this is the last news story both Salami and Bagheri are quoted in before being killed.  I wonder where IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani is?  He would have been a target.

“Israeli forces struck the main enrichment plant at Natanz, targeted nuclear scientists involved in Iran’s bomb program, and hit key ballistic missile facilities.” … “Iran has produced enough enriched uranium for nine atomic bombs.” … “Eighty years ago, Jews were victims of a Holocaust perpetrated by the Nazi regime. Today, the Jewish state refuses to be the victim of a nuclear Holocaust perpetrated by the Iranian regime,” PM Netanyahu announced.  “Netanyahu: Israel strikes Iran to stop imminent nuclear threat,” I24, 6-12-25.

“Senior Iranian military, nuclear officials killed in Israeli strikes,” I24, 6-12-25.  Let me remind everyone that Pres. Trump’s two-month deadline passed (with Iran going through five negotiation talks with the U.S.) before Israel attacked.  See the April 11 entry in this blog.  The U.S. set a 60-day deadline for Iran to make progress on talks over its nuclear program or face potential military retaliation–that two month deadline ended May 19.  Also, this same news story makes the point “The Israeli Foreign Ministry confirmed that Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar is in ongoing talks with international counterparts following the cabinet’s decision to “eliminate the threat of Iranian annihilation. … The unprecedented series of strikes — part of Israel’s newly launched “Strength of a Lion” operation — mark a major escalation as fears grow over Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program and its stated intent to acquire nuclear weapons.”  But I do not write that Trump felt he had to make progress somewhere—tariffs, Ukraine, Gaza, Iran—simply to save face.  It is because Iran is amassing enough material to now make an estimated 10 nuclear weapons.  The inability to get Hamas to release the hostages and inability to get Putin to stop killing civilians was not part of the calculus—the Supreme Leader and the Revolution is.  The U.S. gave a green light.   President Trump would have come to realize the negotiations with Iran were a cover for further HEU (highly enriched uranium).

Notice the ending of this article—that modernity can’t be stopped by the Ayatollah.  “‘Dog Walking Is a Clear Crime’: Iran’s Latest Morality Push,” NYT, 6-9-25.

Bad news for the Regime.  It’s proxy Hezbollah can no longer keep these types of meetings from occurring.  “Lebanon president to visit Jordan Tuesday,” Jordan News Agency, 6-9-25.

“Tehran says it would reduce cooperation with IAEA if anti-Iran resolution passed by agency,” AFP, 6-8-25.

“Think tank: IAEA found Iran conducted, covered up implosion tests key to building nuclear weapon in 2003,” Times of Israel, 6-8-25.