“Intel: Iran Didn’t Move Enriched Uranium Before Attacks,” I24, 7-11-25.
“Some of Iran’s Enriched Uranium Survived Attacks, Israeli Official Says,” NYT, 7-10-25. This is important. The NYT is willing to publish as fact that some of Iran’s enriched uranium survived the U.S attacks, but with that standard it can’t shy away from the same official reporting (for the first time by the Times) that Iran was racing to build a nuclear bomb. Here are pertinent parts of the story so you can see for yourself. (and now let’s see in later reporting if the NYT says that Iran had/has a nuclear weapons program!).
“The senior official also said that Israel had begun moving toward military action against Iran late last year after seeing what the official described as a race to build a bomb as part of a secret Iranian project. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information. The official said Israeli intelligence picked up the nuclear weapons activity soon after the Israeli Air Force killed Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia in Lebanon. That observation prompted the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to prepare for an attack with or without U.S. help. … Western intelligence officials confirmed the Israeli assessment, saying that they believed much of the stockpile was buried under rubble in Iran’s nuclear laboratory at Isfahan and potentially other sites. One of the officials concurred that the United States or Israel would know if the Iranians tried to retrieve the enriched uranium. Such a move, the official said, would surely invite a renewed Israeli bombing attack. Israel, the United States and now a growing number of outside experts agree that all of Iran’s working centrifuges at Natanz and Fordo — about 18,000 machines, which spin at supersonic speeds — were damaged or destroyed, probably beyond repair. The question they are now examining is how long it would take the Iranians to rebuild some or all of that capability, especially after the top scientists in their nuclear program were targeted and killed. … On one point — whether Iran moved a large part of its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium just before the American strike in the early morning of June 22 in Tehran — the Israeli assessment differs from the conclusion of Rafael Grossi, the secretary general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Mr. Grossi has said he believes that much of the stockpile that was stored at Isfahan was transferred from the site before Israeli and American weapons struck. The senior Israeli official contends that nothing was moved. The storage site at Isfahan, the official said, was too deep for even the most powerful American weapons to destroy. … But any effort to dig the fuel out from the rubble of Isfahan may be hard to hide from satellite surveillance. The Israeli official said he believed some additional stockpiles are still at Fordo and Natanz, the two major enrichment sites where the fuel is produced. Both were struck by the bunker-busting bombs, and Israel has assessed that recovering those supplies would be too difficult.”
“UK Parliament warns of rising Iranian threat in new intelligence report,” Iran International, 7-10-25. “The UK Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) released a report on Thursday morning warning that Iran poses one of the gravest state-based threats to British national security, on par with adversaries like Russia and China. The report highlights Tehran’s escalating willingness to carry out assassinations, espionage, and cyber attacks within the United Kingdom, and calls for a fundamental shift in British strategy toward the Islamic Republic. The 260-page report draws on classified intelligence and interviews with senior officials across MI5, MI6, GCHQ, the Cabinet Office, and the Home Office. It paints a detailed picture of Iran’s evolving threat posture, concluding that the Tehran “is a pragmatic actor, often driven more by opportunism than ideology,” and increasingly capable of projecting that pragmatism into hostile activity on British soil. “The Iranian regime’s fundamental objective is to ensure the survival and security of the Islamic Republic,” the ISC said. “It has an acute historic sense of vulnerability. This shapes, directly or indirectly, its actions.” Since January 2022, there have been at least 15 attempts at murder or kidnap against British nationals or UK-based individuals, according to the report. Tehran’s embassy in London issued a statement expressing “its strong protest and categorical rejection of the baseless, politically motivated and hostile claims,” denying any acts of violence, espionage or cyber attacks on UK soil. British intelligence chief Ken McCallum, head of MI5, said last year: “Iranian state actors make extensive use of criminals as proxies—from international drug traffickers to low-level crooks.” These operations, aimed primarily at dissidents and critics of the Islamic Republic, mirror tactics Iran has employed across the globe in continents including Africa, Asia and Europe.”
Traded for a hostage-held reporter. “Iranian man wanted by US worked for Swiss, EU-funded drone lab – Swiss daily,” Iran International, 7-10-25.
“Ally of Iranian Supreme Leader jokes Iran could assassinate sunbathing Donald Trump,” 9 News, 7-10-25.
Iran did hit the COMS radome at Al Udeid. “Satellite images show possible damage to US base in Qatar attacked by Iran,” Iran International, 7-10-25.
“Search for survivors after Houthis sink second Red Sea cargo ship in a week,” BBC, 7-9-25. Security crews are needed for probably every ship passing through the Red Sea near Yemen.
“French spy chief: Uncertain where Iran’s remaining highly enriched uranium is located,” Times of Israel, 7-9-25. He made news: “The head of France’s foreign intelligence service said Tuesday that some of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stocks were destroyed by American and Israeli strikes.”
“China denies giving Iran air defence systems after conflict with Israel,” SCMP, 7-9-25. It is always interesting to see how the media responds to blanket denials from countries. If they are doing their job, they should say “Well, what about this satellite photo?” or “What about Person X who says they saw the AA being transferred?”
“China Responds After Reports Iran Seeks J-10 Fighter Jets,” Newsweek, 7-9-25. Same observation as the prior entry.
“Saudi Arabia and Iran hold talks after Tehran’s truce with Israel,” Dawn, 7-9-25.
“Iranian-linked hacker group targets Iran International journalists in cyberattack,” Committee to Protect Journalists, 7-9-25.
“‘We didn’t wipe them out’: Why Iran is still dangerous even after key strikes,” Times of Israel, 7-8-25. “Despite weakening of Tehran’s nuclear program and its terror proxies, experts warn that a credible threat of force is still needed to complement diplomatic efforts.”
“Iran’s Army Gives Missile Update: Thousands Ready to Launch,” Newsweek, 7-8-25.
“Iran rejects Trump’s claims it asked for relaunch of nuclear talks,” Al Jazeera, 7-8-25.
“Iran Update, July 8, 2025,” ISW Press, 7-8-25.
But will the Supreme Leader listen? No. “Time for Iran to make a no-enrichment nuclear deal,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 7-8-25. Here’s the first great point—“Whereas Iran will be able to reconstitute some capacity to fabricate a few bombs, it is no longer a question of giving up an already built civilian enrichment complex; virtually all of that has been destroyed by Israeli and American precision strikes. In reality, the choice facing the regime is whether to rebuild that complex —a process that will surely take many years and be extraordinarily expensive. The cost will be even higher than the initial construction as it will require more subterfuge, because it will surely be under the constant threat of further bombing. Given how deeply infiltrated Iran’s military and intelligence infrastructure is by Israel’s security services, particularly by Mossad, every step Iran takes will be under constant surveillance. We are at another impasse that only a dose of honest realism, in service of what is best for the people of Iran and their future prosperity, can untangle.” Iran should actually use its oil and gas! Second, BAS makes this point. In 2018, “[o]n April 30, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly revealed that Israeli intelligence had in January of that year seized over 100,000 documents and computer files from a secret atomic archive in Tehran, showing detailed planning for nuclear weapons development under the codename Project Amad. This project aimed to design, build, and test nuclear warheads—five devices of about 10 kiloton yield—with missile integration capabilities. Netanyahu further claimed that whereas some earlier Iranian documents had stated that the project was terminated in 2003, in reality Iran had secretly stored the material to pursue weaponization later. Iran officially refused to acknowledge the theft of their archive, often making fun of Netanyahu for making risible claims. But controversial Iranian ex-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad not only confessed to the loss of the archive but mentioned another highly secretive site stripped of all information by Israeli Mossad operatives. … However, the gravity of the revelations from the Project Amad’s files came into much sharper focus when Israel gave American specialists a look at the files in early 2019. The report of their findings stated convincingly that Iran had deliberately pursued nuclear weapons design and development, that its technical progress exceeded prior estimations, that foreign assistance played a role, and that international intelligence failed to detect key facilities. Other reports identified some of these facilities and showed that Iran had continued its nuclear weapon efforts all along after 2003, but clandestinely.” … “We believe Iran was hedging its nuclear bets all along to amass a sufficiently large stockpile of bomb-grade uranium for missile-deliverable nuclear warheads to serve as a deterrent against Israel. Such a nuclear deterrent has been set back by many years.”
“500,000 Afghans leave Iran in a month amid deportation crackdown,” Al Jazeera, 7-8-25.
This, combined with the Hezbollah story, shows that the proxies aren’t automatically withering. “Houthis Attack Ship in Red Sea for First Time Since Trump Announced a Truce,” WSJ, 7-7-25.
This is what I thought. The attack on Fordow, etc. stretched the U.S., resulting in a short stoppage for Ukraine. Now that will increase. “Mr. Trump had directed the Pentagon to review available munitions stockpiles around the time that the United States conducted bombing attacks on three Iranian nuclear weapons sites. From there, someone at the Pentagon — classifying the munitions in different categories — halted at least some of what was scheduled to be sent to Ukraine, one of the people briefed on the matter said.” See “Trump Pledges to Send More Weapons to Ukraine,” NYT, 7-7-25.
Iran’s claim of recourse from the courts is a common refrain, to go to domestic, regional, or international courts. There is a problem though. Rarely does Iran go, even more rarely do they win. “Iran will pursue all legal avenues to seek redress from its attackers,” Al Jazeera, 7-7-25. It would behoove AJ that if they ask about state responsibility and the obligation for reparations, that they ask the same of Iran. BTW, AJ cites the Israel bombing of Iraq’s Osirak nuclear weapons reactor as precedent—I don’t believe Israel (or the U.S. who finished the bombing during the Iraq War) ever did so.
“One key issue discussed in Dermer’s meetings was Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which includes 400kg enriched to 60%. Weapons-grade uranium requires about 90% enrichment. Israeli and U.S. officials say the material is currently “sealed off” inside the three nuclear sites. The U.S. and Israel assessed that those sites were significantly damaged, but that not all nuclear material or infrastructure was destroyed.” See “Israeli officials think Trump could give them green light to attack Iran again,” Axios, 7-7-25.
“Iran’s president says open to dialogue with US after Israel war,” Al Jazeera, 7-7-25. Then do it.
“Hezbollah leader refuses to disarm until Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon,” Politico, 7-6-25.
The NYT almost makes Evin Prison out to be a Holiday Inn, with its written description and selection of photos. Instead, this is Iran’s most notorious prison. Why did Israel select where to drop bombs? The NYT doesn’t really answer that, nor does it explore the issue of who could have escaped. They do recount it took extra security three hours to arrive, and that Evin is now closed with the prisoners transferred. This blog has several times mentioned Evin over the years, and it is good physically and symbolically to now be shuttered. See “Israel’s Deadly Assault on Iran Prison Incites Fury, Even Among Dissidents,” NYT, 7-6-25.
“China and Russia Keep Their Distance From Iran During Crisis,” NYT, 7-6-25. This author has it wrong that there is no axis. Instead, “Yun Sun, a scholar of China’s foreign policy at the Stimson Center, a research institute in Washington, argued that the “axis” formulation for China, Russia, Iran and North Korea was still valid. Although the four countries do not have a mutual defense agreement binding all of them, she said, they share an “anti-U.S., anti-West and anti-liberal democracy” outlook.”
Easily the biggest news of the day. “Iran supreme leader in first public appearance since Israel war,” BBC, 7-5-25. I believe he has not ventured beyond the country’s borders since becoming Supreme Leader, and in recent years has very rarely left Tehran and his compound, even for Friday Prayers. There is a large room with PR equipment that he uses for “public” events and speeches. Why not leave the country, or then Tehran? Not because of Israel or the U.S. or Saudi Arabia or anyone else. He was in fear from his people. Or rather, I should say the people of Iran. So for him to reappear (and not speak, he is not well) “After weeks of sheltering in a bunker, Mr. Khamenei on Saturday night attended an annual Shiite religious ceremony for Ashura, which was held at his compound.” Appearing at Ashura is the message he was sending (look up Ashura if you don’t know what that is).
Happy July 4! “U.N. Pulls Nuclear Inspectors Out of Iran for Safety Reasons,” WSJ, 7-4-25. This is the country that promised it wasn’t building a nuclear weapons program and assured the world it would cooperate with the IAEA.
One of two things is going on. Either Iran feels enough pressure to actually have talks, or the Regime has decided to continue to string along the U.S. “U.S. plans nuclear talks with Iran in Oslo next week,” 7-3-25. “A key issue in any future talks will be Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which includes 400 kilograms enriched to 60%. Israeli and U.S. officials say the material is currently “sealed off from the outside world” inside the three nuclear sites attacked during the joint strikes: the enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, and the underground tunnels at the Isfahan site. Iran is unable to access the stockpile for now due to damage from the strikes, but it could be recovered once the rubble is cleared.”
“US must rule out more strikes before new talks, Iranian minister tells BBC,” BBC, 7-3-25.
This Iranian proxy continues to have a green light. “Houthis vow to continue attacking Israel, boast ‘hypersonic’ missiles – analysis,” JPost, 7-2-25.
This Iranian proxy continues to have a green light. “Houthis vow to continue attacking Israel, boast ‘hypersonic’ missiles – analysis,” JPost, 7-2-25.
“It’s reminiscent of “Monty Python and the Holy Grail,” in which the Black Knight taunts King Arthur even as the king cuts his limbs off one by one.” See “Denial Runs From Egypt in 1967 to Iran Today,” WSJ, 7-2-25.