Month: January 2026

“Iran’s Khamenei appears on video amid rising US Tensions,” Roya News, 1-31-26.  Iranian news “broadcast images and video of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Saturday, marking his first public appearance in several weeks. The visit to the mausoleum of his predecessor, Ayatollah Khomeini, coincided with the 47th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution.”  A proof of life video!  In contrast with the proof of life videos shot by Hamas of Israeli hostages inside tunnels in Gaza.  Also attending were President Pezeshkian and Hasan Khomeni, grandson of late leader (the first leader) Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.  See “Khamenei makes first public appearance in weeks as Iran makes new threats against US, Israel,” Times of Israel, 1-31-26.

MBS is 40 years old.  AK is 86.  That’s one of analyzing this report.  “Report: Saudi defense minister tells US not striking Iran would ’embolden’ regime,” Times of Israel, 1-31-26.

This is not military action by the U.S. or Israel based on picture, fire chief reports, who was killed and injured.  Just a gas leak.  “Blast rips through building in Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas, state media says,” CNN, 1-31-26.

“History of Iran Part 2 – American Minute with Bill Federer,” 1-31-26.

“US, Iran signal talks to avert military conflict amid tensions in the Gulf,” Al Jazeera, 1-31-26.  This whole episode may turn out to be peace through strength, we’ll see.  But I did see this quote.  “Any unsafe and unprofessional behavior near US forces, regional partners or commercial vessels increases risks of collision, escalation, and destabilization,” CENTCOM said in a statement.”

“Iran Says It Won’t Negotiate With the U.S. While Under Threat,” NYT, 1-30-26.  Again, the Regime through its FM under orders from the Leader flips and says something new.  And keep in mind that how Iran defines “threats” is really, at its core, that the U.S. exists, not whether the Lincoln strike force is now present or that the U.S. has bases in the region (which can’t be picked up and quickly moved away obviously).  Here’s the key–that the question is not what will the U.S. do, or anyone else.  The question solely is what will Iran do?  That has always been the focus of this blog and rightfully so.  The reason we watch Iran is because the Regime’s for 45 years has brought our eye to them.  They are responsible for their actions, not Iraq or Saudi Arabia or Afghanistan.  The U.S. didn’t make Iran do anything, nor Turkey or Israel or the UK or the UAE.  You get the picture.  For weeks the question is centering for some persons, will Trump or Israel attack?  But that is the wrong question, and all those other questions are really predicated on will the Islamic Republic decide to act as a normal country?

“Intense Saudi Moves in Washington to De-escalate Tensions with Iran,” Alhurra, 1-30-26.  “Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman held a series of meetings on Friday in the U.S. capital with senior officials in the Trump administration. His meetings included Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.”

“U.S. Approves $15.7 Billion in Potential Arms Sales for Saudi Arabia, Israel,” WSJ, 1-30-26.  “The arms deals would need congressional approval and could take years for the weapons to be delivered.”  See also “US approves $6.7 billion arms sale to Israel, $9 billion Patriot missile deal for Saudis,” Times of Israel, 1-31-26.  “The Saudi sale is for 730 Patriot missiles and related equipment that “will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by improving the security of a Major non-NATO Ally that is a force for political stability and economic progress in the Gulf Region.”

“Iran History – Part 1 – American Minute with Bill Federer,” 1-30-26.

It should not be a surprise to anyone that the Ayatollah and the Regime have not made concessions nor real negotiations here at the last minute.  Historically, he always digs in his wheels, but not just with the U.S. or his regional neighbors or the UN or you name the entity, with the Iranian people.  There is no brook, no dissension allowed.  This is so much of his downfall and that of the Regime.  Perhaps it will become a military state.  A thugocracy is a real possibility.  Theocracy?  No, the people have had enough of a Shia Revolution.  Will the country break into two or three parts?  See “Trump weighs major new strike on Iran as nuclear discussions show no progress,” CNN, 1-29-26.

Finally.  Took a lot of death in Iran to get this over the finish line in Brussels.  “EU designates Iran’s Revolutionary Guard a terror group,” DW, 1-29-26.  Last thing to mention on this—the persons blacklisted by the EU for their actions during Jan. 8-9 had better watch their back, the U.S. knows who they are also.  The story listed some of them:  “Among those on the list of 15 individuals sanctioned on Thursday were Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni, Iran’s prosecutor general Mohammad Movahedi-Azad, General Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi, who is head of Iran’s joint command headquarters, and Iman Afshari, a presiding judge.”  See also “EU adds Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to terrorist list,” BBC, 1-29-26.

“Israel, Saudi officials visit Washington to discuss possible U.S. strikes on Iran, sources say,” Reuters, 1-29-26.  This story could be accurate, or it could be a ruse.

“What could happen if the US strikes Iran? Here are seven scenarios,” BBC, 1-29-26.  Reasonable list.  But it is complex situation, with so many ways this could end up, even over the short-term.  Just compare how the U.S. is handling Venezuela, and almost the “model” situation there.

“How a month of protests and threats brought Trump to Iran strike decision point,” Iran International, 1-29-26.  “Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder met senior officials at the Pentagon, the CIA and the White House on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to US officials and other sources familiar with the discussions, as Israel shared intelligence it says could inform potential targets inside Iran, Axios reported on Thursday. Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman was expected in Washington on Thursday and Friday for meetings at the Pentagon, the State Department and the White House, including with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US special envoy Steve Witkoff, sources said.”

A comprehensive yet basic location list of U.S. assets.  The Iranians and Russians and others know this, also.  But this article does make you think, though, why doesn’t the NYT run the same information about Iran?  Its motto is “All the news that’s fit to print.”  See “Where the U.S. Is Building Up Military Force Near Iran,” NYT, 1-29-26.

Maybe it should.  Time is drawing short.  The U.S. has communicated its position.  Will the Regime tell us its response?  “Iran says it did not request negotiations with the U.S.” Reuters, 1-28-26.

I think the BBC knows the answer to its question.  “Is the US preparing to strike Iran again?,” BBC, 1-28-26.  The real question is what happens next.

Perhaps you know of the Long War Journal.  Really good.  And, correct, it is a long view that we have to take to operate properly.  “Iran and its proxies threaten retaliation against US and Israel amid US military buildup,” FDD Long War Journal, 1-28-26.

Texas Sen. John Cornyn asked Sec. Rubio what step the Supreme Leader may take next.  “Cornyn Questions Sec. Rubio on Potential Fall of Iranian Regime, Middle East Posture,” YouTube, 1-28-26.  The thousands of UAVs and short-range ballistic missiles are a real threat to the 8-9 U.S. bases in the Middle East.

“Iran in collective shock after bloody crackdown,” LeMonde, 1-28-26.

This really is a good opportunity for the reporter or news outlet to challenge the statements being made by the Regime operatives.  If they truly have complete control, how does this IRGC commander explain the two U.S. warships sitting in the strait?  If these outlets won’t ask, then they shouldn’t run with these stories, or should include in the stories the reality of the situation.  See “Iran says it has ‘complete control’ of Strait of Hormuz as threat of war with US looms,” MEMO, 1-28-26.

“How Iran Crushed an Uprising,” NYT, 1-27-26.  It would be good if the NYT paired up with Iran International, which is leading the stories.  But we will give credit to the Times for providing its large readership with “We learned from Iranian officials familiar with security matters that on Jan. 9, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered the Supreme National Security Council to crush the protests by any means necessary. … Within four days, the protests had largely been crushed. … But we can say that the government responded to these protests with more lethal force than we’ve seen in many decades. That tells us something about how it views the stakes of the protests, which called for the downfall of Khamenei and his regime. … The Islamic Republic is at its most fragile geopolitical moment in years, and perhaps ever.”

“US renews nuclear and missile demands on Iran as ‘armada’ arrives,” Iran International, 1-27-26.  Here’s the public list of demands.  “Iran, the world’s leading state sponsor of terror, must stop its nuclear escalations, its ballistic missile program, and its support for its terrorist proxies,” the spokesperson said. … Separately, Axios quoted US officials as saying any potential agreement with Tehran would require the removal of all highly enriched uranium from Iran, strict limits on the country’s long-range missile stockpile, a change in Iran’s policy of supporting regional proxy groups, and a ban on independent uranium enrichment inside the country.”  I would think the U.S. is also requiring the Supreme Leader to leave, and would allow him to go to Moscow.   It is surprising that some are asking will Pres. Trump do something in response to the unparalleled slaughter  because he does have a record of doing what he says, but also because Iranians are begging for help.  And it is in the national interest to see those punished for the largest two-day protest killings in human history, and, I would add, because it is in the U.S. national interest to end the Regime which has so vexed the Middle East and the U.S. since 1979.  Where is the world?  Where is the Security Council?  For those who ask (or even criticize) if the U.S. should do something, are they willing to do something, to just observe?  Scared to open a wider war in the Middle East?  The other strikes by the U.S., against Qasem Soleimani or the June 2025 nuclear program hits, did not start a war.  Why do people say something needs to be done but aren’t willing to do it themselves?  Where are the other countries?

“Activists say Iran’s crackdown has killed at least 6,159 people, as the country’s currency plunges,” AP, 1-27-26.  The rial fell to a record low of 1.5 million to $1 U.S. dollar.

Thank you Masih Alinejad.  See “The Cost of Inaction Over Iran: ‘We Are Left With Graveyards’,” NYT, 1-27-26.  “I’m in constant contact with Iranians inside the country, and what I hear from activists who witnessed killings, and mothers who are now mourning their children, is that we need the world to act. Iranian officials sent assassins to kill me on U.S. soil three times. I was saved only by the vigilance of U.S. law enforcement agencies. My dream, and the dream of millions of my compatriots, is to see Mr. Khamenei held accountable, and be tried for the crime of killing so many Iranians. … “I’m no military planner, but it’s clear that attacks on the infrastructure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Basij militia that it controls would damage the Islamic Republic’s protest-crushing machinery. The goal should be to disrupt the regime’s ability to shoot, jail and terrorize. The strike could also encourage fence-sitters inside the security services to stand down, if not actually join the protesters. … Europeans should designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist organization, something they have yet to do despite a mountain of evidence about the violence it has perpetrated. While they are at it, they should expel Iranian diplomats and close the country’s consulates.”

“Iran’s repeated use of 3,117 fuels doubts about official statistics,” Iran International, 1-27-26.

“Iran’s President Pezeshkian warns of regional instability amid US threats,” Al Jazeera, 1-27-26.

“USS Abraham Lincoln carrier not yet in CENTCOM amid Iran drone threat warnings – report,” I-24, 1-26-26.  What will happen here, finally, is that when swarming is suspected, those small cigar ships will be blown out of the water pre-emptively.  They will have already had a warning to stay away.  Under these conditions, Iran has gone past the swarming circle of acceptability, here they are a danger and have gone on too long.  But here’s the update later on 1-26, “U.S. Carrier Lincoln Arrives in Middle East Amid Iran Tensions,” WSJ, 1-26-26.  For some reason, it really does feel like the Supreme Leader’s time has come.

Notice what Amnesty says, “January 2026 marks the deadliest period of repression by the Iranian authorities in decades of Amnesty’s research. Impunity for the repeated commission of crimes under international law committed by the Iranian authorities during previous protest crackdowns has fuelled [sic.] this latest round of violence.”  Amnesty International itself implicitly blames a lack of force in response as empowering the Regime in past crackdowns.  See “What happened at the protests in Iran?,” Amnesty International, 1-26-26.

Iran International carries this story, “After the crackdown: is there a way back for Iran’s rulers?”, and it does not appear so.  1-26-26.  A “breakdown in political legitimacy, elite cohesion, and state capacity” seems to be the situation now.

Another billboard paid for with funds that could help everyday Iranians.  “Iranian authorities unveil new billboard in Tehran warning US against taking military action,” Euronews, 1-26-26.

“Iran detaining protesters being treated in hospitals as part of crackdown, says UN expert,” Retuers, 1-26-26.

“Iran’s shadow fleet is fueling the Myanmar junta’s air war,” AP, 1-26-26.  Incredible reporting.  “Iran has secretly shipped vast amounts of jet fuel to Myanmar’s military. As the junta ramps up bombing raids against civilian targets, Iran is now the military’s primary supplier of jet fuel and urea, which is an ingredient in Myanmar’s munitions. The deliveries violate Western sanctions on both countries.”

“Iran’s biggest centres of protest are also experiencing extreme pollution and water shortages,” The Conversation, 1-26-26.

“Iran regime reportedly issued nationwide shoot-to-kill orders as protest death toll surges,” Fox, 1-26-26.

“US weighs ‘precision strikes’ on Iranian officials as military build-up surges, sources say,” MEE, 1-26-26.

“After mass killings, bodies of Iran’s slain leveraged to quash dissent,” Iran International, 1-26-26.

“Hizbullah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, has been humbled,” Economist, 1-26-26.

“Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Yemen threaten new attacks as US aircraft carrier arrives,” AP, 1-26-26.

“New Iran videos show bodies piled in hospital and snipers on roofs,” BBC, 1-26-26.

Over 30,000!  Terrible.  And this is per the Ministry of Health, the Regime itself.  The Supreme Leader must be incensed the numbers have been leaked. “Iran health officials say death toll far exceeds official figures during protests – report,” I24, 1-25-26.

“More than 36,500 Iranians were killed by security forces during the January 8-9 crackdown on nationwide protests, making it the deadliest two-day protest massacre in history. … [In addition] Images released from morgues leave little doubt that some wounded citizens were shot in the head while hospitalized and undergoing medical treatment.”  These were “finishing shots.”  See “Over 36,500 killed in Iran’s deadliest massacre, documents reveal,” Iran International, 1-25-26.  This is perhaps the most shocking entry of my writing this blog since 2018.  It may also represent the “finishing shot” for the Islamic Republic of Iran Regime.

“Why Turkey and Qatar need the Iranian regime to survive,” Ekathimerini, 1-25-26.

Remember, she should never have been at Emory in the first place.  Larijani has been a leader in the Regime and Parliament for years, and unless we hear otherwise she and other relatives are not opposing what happens in Iran, they are simply living here in safety and abundance.  This is not a question of academic freedom, etc.  “US university fires top Iran official Ali Larijani’s daughter amid Washington-Tehran tensions,” New Arab, 1-25-26.

That’s the spirit.  “Iran judicial chief says protest instigators to receive no leniency,” Times of Israel, AFP, 1-25-26.  Uh, but he made a mistake, he implicated the IRGC and other Regime actors when he said, “justice entails judging and punishing without the slightest leniency the criminals who took up arms and killed people, or committed arson, destruction and massacres.”  But I bet no Iranian agents will be prosecuted, only persons they shot or beat or burned or assaulted or massacred.

“U.S. Central Command Head to Coordinate With Israeli Defense Chiefs Ahead of Possible Iran Strike,” Haaertz, 1-24-26.

Actually, he’s been underground for weeks.  “Iran’s Khamenei moved to fortified Tehran bunker amid US strike fears,” Ynet, 1-24-26.  See also “Report: Khamenei moved to underground bunker in Tehran,” I-24, 1-24-26.  I-24 cited Iran International with “the supreme leader’s third son Masoud Khamenei has taken over day-to-day management of the leader’s office, functioning as the de facto main channel for coordination vis-à-vis the executive branches of the government and the security forces.”  I would imagine son and father are not talking via phone or other electronic device fearful their messages can be intercepted but also traced to a location in the tunnels, so messenger is carrying information..

“‘Change is inevitable’: What is next for Iran?,” Al Jazeera, 1-24-26.

“Iran Update, January 24, 2026,” 1-24-26.

“Trump says US still ‘watching Iran‘ as ‘massive’ fleet heads to Gulf region,” Al Jazeera, 1-23-26.

Sick.  The Ayatollah is being cursed for his forcing people to dig through corpses to find their loved ones he ordered shot.  I’m not making this up.  “The Final Indignities Inflicted on Iran’s Protest Victims,” NYT, 1-23-26.  Quote of the Day—“The word hatred is not strong enough to signify what people are feeling. It’s over.”

“The night Iran went dark: Witness accounts and video reveal violence inflicted during Iran’s internet blackout,” CNN, 1-23-26.

“UN rights chief says Iranian security forces followed wounded protesters into hospitals,” I24, 1-23-26.

“Video Emerges Of Bodies In Rasht After Crackdown By Iranian Security Forces,” RFE/RL, 1-23-26.

“All of a sudden, Putin is willing to throw Iran under the bus,” FDD, 1-23-26.

“Iran deployed militarized crackdown to hide protest killings – Amnesty,” Iran International, 1-23-26.

“An exiled crown prince says he can lead Iran to democracy, but Trump hasn’t endorsed him,” NBC, 1-23-26.

The headline is the general view among many persons, and is the main theory on timelines for despotic regimes.  However, the article explores the two routes a coup would follow after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is “disappeared” suddenly from the scene.  “How the Iranian Regime Breaks: Elite Fracture Will Come Gradually and Then Suddenly,” Foreign Affairs, 1-22-26.  Another way of saying this is non-normal countries have little prediction of a way forward for their people, thus little benefits to understand.  A battle of power occurs whenever there is a (made) vacuum.

“Hope for the future of Iran,” George W. Bush Center, 1-22-26.  “People now see that equal rights can only be achieved if the Islamic Republic is not there. … Right now, Iranians are really looking to the outside world because they feel that it is their only hope for change. They feel they cannot do it by themselves anymore. And I feel the world is not even doing the bare minimum. For example, Europe has exhausted all options of diplomacy…statements and condemnations – and it is clearly not enough. They have tried diplomacy for decades. The same is true for the United States. I think what the public needs to understand is that this is not only about Iran. It is about the Middle East. It is about a region that could be more peaceful, where people could live more equally and peacefully, without external forces telling them that one ideology or one group of people is superior to another. And the thing is that the Islamic Republic – not Iran – the Islamic Republic defines itself in part by being an enemy of the United States and an enemy of Israel. Imagine that this country could instead become an ally under a different kind of government.”

Oh great.  Remember, freedom of speech doesn’t mean you have to pay (or host) for it.  “Yale hosts controversial speaker Trita Parsi accused of promoting Iranian regime interests,” Fox, 1-22-26.

Much worse than the Parsi story, this is a Putin story.  It looks like he helped Iran keep quiet the news of the killings.  “Putin’s ‘Kill Switch’—Russian Tech Shuts Down Starlink In Iran,” Forbes, 1-22-26.

Military buildup.  “Inside the US military’s massive buildup ahead of possible Iran strike,” JNS, 1-22-26.

Ah, tell that to the protesters.  Or make suggestions to help them.  “Trump Has Options in Iran. None Are Likely to Help Protesters Much,” WSJ, 1-22-26.

“… the distinct possibility that Iran’s ethnics might secede, chiefly the larger ones with kin across borders.”  Good point.  … in reality nobody outside is actually or substantially helping defend the populace against the regime’s onslaught. … For Russia, Iran helps bottle up Central Asia geographically, its trade and pipelines etc, thereby leaving a vast landmass dependent on Moscow’s stranglehold. Also Tehran supplies Shahed drones for use in Ukraine. In short, Putin is not about to let democracy take over in Iran.”  See “Defending A Much-Hated Opinion About The Benefits Of A Fractured Iran,” Forbes, 1-22-26.