The headline is the general view among many persons, and is the main theory on timelines for despotic regimes. However, the article explores the two routes a coup would follow after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is “disappeared” suddenly from the scene. “How the Iranian Regime Breaks: Elite Fracture Will Come Gradually and Then Suddenly,” Foreign Affairs, 1-22-26. Another way of saying this is non-normal countries have little prediction of a way forward for their people, thus little benefits to understand. A battle of power occurs whenever there is a (made) vacuum.
“Hope for the future of Iran,” George W. Bush Center, 1-22-26. “People now see that equal rights can only be achieved if the Islamic Republic is not there. … Right now, Iranians are really looking to the outside world because they feel that it is their only hope for change. They feel they cannot do it by themselves anymore. And I feel the world is not even doing the bare minimum. For example, Europe has exhausted all options of diplomacy…statements and condemnations – and it is clearly not enough. They have tried diplomacy for decades. The same is true for the United States. I think what the public needs to understand is that this is not only about Iran. It is about the Middle East. It is about a region that could be more peaceful, where people could live more equally and peacefully, without external forces telling them that one ideology or one group of people is superior to another. And the thing is that the Islamic Republic – not Iran – the Islamic Republic defines itself in part by being an enemy of the United States and an enemy of Israel. Imagine that this country could instead become an ally under a different kind of government.”
Oh great. Remember, freedom of speech doesn’t mean you have to pay (or host) for it. “Yale hosts controversial speaker Trita Parsi accused of promoting Iranian regime interests,” Fox, 1-22-26.
Much worse than the Parsi story, this is a Putin story. It looks like he helped Iran keep quiet the news of the killings. “Putin’s ‘Kill Switch’—Russian Tech Shuts Down Starlink In Iran,” Forbes, 1-22-26.
Military buildup. “Inside the US military’s massive buildup ahead of possible Iran strike,” JNS, 1-22-26.
Ah, tell that to the protesters. Or make suggestions to help them. “Trump Has Options in Iran. None Are Likely to Help Protesters Much,” WSJ, 1-22-26.
“… the distinct possibility that Iran’s ethnics might secede, chiefly the larger ones with kin across borders.” Good point. … in reality nobody outside is actually or substantially helping defend the populace against the regime’s onslaught. … For Russia, Iran helps bottle up Central Asia geographically, its trade and pipelines etc, thereby leaving a vast landmass dependent on Moscow’s stranglehold. Also Tehran supplies Shahed drones for use in Ukraine. In short, Putin is not about to let democracy take over in Iran.” See “Defending A Much-Hated Opinion About The Benefits Of A Fractured Iran,” Forbes, 1-22-26.