Month: February 2026

“US sending world’s biggest aircraft carrier to Middle East as tensions with Iran increase,” The Hill, 2-13-26.

A fair article that makes the point that Iran could attack 11 countries in retaliation.  “The options Mr. Trump has been weighing include military action targeting Iran’s nuclear program and ability to launch ballistic missiles ….  He is also considering options that would include sending American commandos to go after certain Iranian military targets.”  See “As Diplomats Talk, Pentagon Prepares for Possible War With Iran,” NYT, 2-13-26.

“Exclusive: Binance fires top investigators who claim to have uncovered evidence of Iranian sanctions violations,” Fortune, 2-13-26.  If we follow the no-association-with-Epstein rule, there are plenty of companies out there who have also violated sanctions rules.  But this is very large—“evidence that entities tied to Iran had received more than $1 billion through the exchange from March 2024 through August 2025, in potential violation of sanctions laws. The transactions routed through Binance using the stablecoin Tether on a blockchain known as Tron.”

“Iranian state TV airs ‘hit list’ of seven top Israeli officials, including Netanyahu,” Times of Israel, 2-13-26.

“Trump sets one-month deadline for Iran deal,” Middle East Online, 2-13-26.

“Iran’s military degraded by 12-day war with Israel, but still has significant capabilities,” AP, 2-13-26.

Further signs of Iran’s influence waning.  “U.S. Vacates a Key Military Base in Syria,” WSJ, 2-12-26.  Al Tanf, key to controlling weapon flows, etc. from Iran to Hezbollah along the road from Baghdad to Damascus, has been handed over to the Syrian government.  “The militia that the U.S. worked with at Al Tanf has joined forces with Syria’s government. Iran-aligned militias have launched attacks on U.S. forces in Syria in recent years, but those groups were mostly pushed out of the country after the Assad regime fell. Sharaa, a former longtime leader of an anti-Iran insurgency, has said he is determined to keep Tehran’s influence out of the country.”  The U.S. force is not far from Al Tanf, though, redeployed in Jordan.

“Why the U.S. Hasn’t Yet Struck Iran,” Atlantic, 2-12-26.  While this source is reflexively critical of the President, it does make the point that the objective must be clear.  In that vein, the warning was given to not hurt protesters, so those persons are accountable.  The U.S. is not intent on regime change, as it has said and which would require invasion and overseeing a new government—that is up to the people of Iran.  But the U.S. can make their efforts easier with its first and only stated priority to date.

“U.S. Aircraft Carrier Will Be Sent to the Middle East From Venezuela, Officials Say,” NYT, 2-12-26.

“Turkey: US and Iran near compromise on nuclear deal, warns against expanding talks,” i24, 2-12-26.

“Lyse Doucet: In Tehran, rallies for Iran’s revolution overshadowed by discontent and defiance,” BBC, 2-11-26.  The BBC has the video of during the Tehran celebration of the 47th year after the Iranian revolution the calls of “death to the dictator” across the city.

“Iranian brutality: Nobel laureate fighting for life after barbaric assault at notorious prison,” Fox, 2-11-26.

“Turkey could join nuclear arms race if Iran acquires bomb, Hakan Fidan warns,” JPost, 2-10-26.  “”If Iran gets a nuclear weapon, it will not be possible for others to remain indifferent,” [FM] Fidan said in the interview. He added that the outcome would not be limited to Iran, warning of a chain reaction across the Middle East driven by deterrence logic and heightened threat perceptions.”

“Iran strikes coming? US vessels warned to stay away from territorial waters,” The Hill, 2-10-26.  Most of these maritime warnings were already in place to protect shipping from IRGC hostage taking throughout the year.  Similar, see “Satellite images show Iran sealing off nuclear site,” i-24, 2-10-26.

“Iran arrests leading reformists close to president amid crackdown on protest critics,” i24, 2-9-26.  Azar Mansouri, Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, Mohsen Aminzadeh, and others are ordered to turn themselves in at police stations.  “Iranian prosecutors accused those arrested of “targeting national unity, taking a stance against the constitution, promoting surrender, perverting political groups, and creating secret subversive mechanisms.” Judiciary head Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei added that critics within Iran were acting in agreement with “the Zionist regime and America” and warned they would “suffer losses.”  The arrests appear aimed at preventing the spread of criticism over the handling of the protests, which followed reports of thousands killed. … These detentions come amid a wider crackdown on human rights defenders. … Human rights groups have condemned the crackdown as part of a broader effort by Tehran to silence dissent and suppress accountability for the violent response to nationwide demonstrations, highlighting ongoing concerns over political freedoms in Iran.”  Further proof that the Regime will not reform.  The people are left with only one choice.

“This is the largest mass killing in contemporary Iranian history and one of the largest in the world,” Payam Akhavan, an Iranian Canadian former UN prosecutor at the International Criminal Court, in The Hague, told BBC News Persian.  See “Machine guns to machetes: Weapons that massacred thousands in Iran,” BBC, 2-9-26.

“Iran Detains Prominent Political Figures, Expanding Crackdown on Dissent,” NYT, 2-9-26.

“Iran defies US threats to insist on right to enrich uranium,” CAN, 2-9-26.

So true.  “Iran’s persistent claims that these weapons are purely for defense or deterrence are contradicted by its use of them against Iraqi Kurdistan in particular. In reality, it’s hard to think of any other country that relies so heavily on ballistic missiles in lieu of other, more conventional military capabilities and has shown such a willingness to use them at the slightest provocation.”  See “Iran’s Ballistic Missiles Were Never Wholly For Defense Or Deterrence,” Forbes, 2-9-26.

“Iran says won’t stop uranium enrichment, is not scared by US military deployment in region,” Times of Israel, 2-8-26.

“Iran sentences Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi to 7 more years in prison,” AP, 2-8-26.  Another leader the Regime would not mind seeing eliminated.

Every cause/people/subjugated group by Iran’s definition and help (really to make them proxies, such as Hezbollah, the Iraqi groups, the Alawites, Houthis, Hamas, Palestinians, etc.) has failed in the last 45 years.  Other countries, dozens, have had to push back by Iran’s attempts to revolutionize the region and grow the Shia Crescent.  So for the Leader and Araghchi to make these arguments against Israel (which are not consistent with history and state actions) is the pot calling the kettle black.  See “Hitting out at Israel’s ‘expansionist project,’ Iran’s Araghchi says region ‘must not be reshaped by force’,” i-24, 2-7-26.

“Satellite images may reveal Iran trying to recover material from bombed nuclear sites,” CBC, 2-7-26.

“NYT: Satellite imagery shows Iran repaired ballistic missiles sites hit in 12-day war,” i24, 2-6-26.  But the NYT’s satellite analysis is 7 months after the June strikes by the U.S.  Instead, almost daily intelligence has been watching, and not reported.  But the NYT does say “Experts say that despite some visible work, Iran’s three main enrichment facilities — Isfahan, Natanz and Fordo — appear inoperative.”  See “Iran Is at Work on Missile and Nuclear Sites, Satellite Images Show,” NYT, 2-6-26.

“Iranian spokesperson says U.S.-Iran talks over ‘for now’ | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 2-26.

Calculated, rational, but still wrong.  See “Why Tehran sees war as a survival strategy,” Iran International, 2-6-26.  In part—“Iran’s leadership is edging toward a war scenario not because diplomacy is necessarily collapsing, but because confrontation is increasingly seen as the least damaging option for a ruling system under intense internal and external pressure. While Iran’s foreign minister is right now visiting Oman for bilateral talks with the United States, in Tehran’s calculus, negotiations now promise steady erosion. War, by contrast, offers a chance – however risky – to reset the balance. This marks a shift from the Islamic Republic’s long-standing view of war as an existential threat. Today, senior decision-makers appear to believe that controlled confrontation may preserve the system in ways diplomacy no longer can. That belief explains why war is no longer unthinkable in Tehran, but increasingly framed as a viable instrument of rule. At the core of this shift lies a stark assessment: the negotiating table has become a losing field. This is not because an agreement with Washington is impossible. It is because the framework imposed by the United States and its allies has turned diplomacy into a process of cumulative concession. When nuclear limits, missile restrictions, regional influence, and even domestic conduct are treated as interlinked files, Iranian leaders see talks not as pressure relief, but as strategic retreat without credible guarantees of survival. From Tehran’s perspective, diplomacy no longer buys time. It entrenches vulnerability. In that context, confrontation begins to look less like recklessness and more like a way out of a narrowing corridor.”

“Iran Refuses to End Nuclear Enrichment in Talks With U.S.,” WSJ, 2-6-26.

“Trump calls U.S. and Iran talks in Oman ‘very good’ and says there will be another meeting,” NBC, 2-6-26.

The question is will the U.S. allow this to happen.  “Iran Returns to Its Negotiating Stall,” WSJ, 2-6-26.

“Rubio confirms Iran demanded venue change for nuclear talks,” Fox, 2-4-26.

“Iran and the U.S. will hold nuclear talks Friday in Oman as tensions remain high,” NBC, 2-4-26

“After crushing protests, Iran’s supreme leader now tries to avert a US attack,” 2-4-26.

“Iran signals major nuclear concessions in bid to ease tensions,” i24, 2-3-26.

“Iranian gunboats try to stop a US-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz – report,” i24, 2-3-26.  Also of note, this story reports what we have observed seemingly forever, the Iranians say one thing day, another the next, then a third thing.  Delay, delay, delay to stay in power.  “Iranian officials reportedly threatened to withdraw from talks with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, scheduled for Friday in Turkey, according to people familiar with the matter.”

“Iran’s President Backs ‘Fair’ Talks With U.S. as Confrontation Looms,” NYT, 2-3-26.  Thank you U.S. Navy.  “A Navy fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone on Tuesday after it aggressively approached a U.S. aircraft carrier that was transiting the Arabian Sea, about 500 miles from Iran’s southern coast.”