It’s a new day for Iran. March 1, with the so-called Supreme Leader announced yesterday as killed. Ali Khamenei was the second leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and had dicatated for over 35 years after the first ten years of rule by the first Great Ayatollah, Ruhollah Khomeini. Here is obituary, prepared over the past several months by the NYT. “Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Hard-Line Cleric Who Made Iran a Regional Power, Is Dead at 86,” NYT, 3-1-26. The article includes a quote by Vali Nasr at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, “It’s really under him that the Islamic Republic took form. Khomeini led a revolution. Khamenei led a state.” And this is the point of this blog. The NYT, probably without realizing, uses the word “revolution” in its article, and I say without realizing because they don’t really delve into how radical Iran was compared to its neighbors. The post-1979 Iran has been so dangerous because it tied state ideology to violence and attempts to grow its revolution across the Middle East. This blog will continue to watch and see if any reform is taken, anything to show that Iran can take its place among the nations of the world.
“Trump says talks easier after Khamenei, Iran vows ‘devastating’ response,” Iran International, 3-1-26. For those predicting a wider war across the region, I respond show us the evidence. How many missiles has Iran actually shot. How many have made it through missile defenses? Closing the Dubai airport and having some residential buildings hit is nothing compared to June 2025 and what would have been feared before.
“‘Freedom, freedom!’: Jubilant crowds across Iran celebrate killing of Khamenei,” Times of Israel, 3-1-26. “Iranian state television announced a 40-day mourning period and seven public holidays.” I wonder what the odds are now at Polymarket whether the 7 holidays will be observed.
Apparently Larijani is alive. “Ali Larijani, once seen as a pragmatist, steps into void left by Khamenei’s death,” Times of Israel, 3-1-26.
It appears that the great threat to shipping that Iran made is not materializing. Few ships hit, minor damage. Other ships waiting to pass through Hormuz. “Two ships hit near Strait of Hormuz as fears grow of oil price rises,” BBC, 3-1-26.
“Nine dead in missile attack on Israel as Iran strikes region,” BBC, 3-1-26. Low numbers of successful missiles and casualties across the Middle East. Iran’s counterattack is falling flat so far. “Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait – all home to US military bases – said they had intercepted missiles fired towards them, but falling debris appeared to have caused widespread damage.”
“The months of planning behind US-Israeli mission to target Iran’s supreme leader,” BBC, 3-1-26. Pres. Pezeshkian is apparently alive. “Three senior Iranian defence officials have been confirmed dead by Iran, including Defence Council secretary Ali Shamkhani, Defence Minister Brig Gen Aziz Nasirzadeh and IRGC commander Gen Mohammad Pakpour.” Shamkhani was a real danger, and is a great loss to the Regime.
How to Make Friends and Influence People–Dale Carnegie would not be impressed by use of the Shahed-136 against civilians. “Iran Fires Cheap Drones Into Arab Countries, Wreaking Havoc,” NYT, 3-1-26.
The best article yet detailing how the Leader was deposed. “The C.I.A. Helped Pinpoint a Gathering of Iranian Leaders. Then Israel Struck.,” NYT, 3-1-26.
These types of statements are endangering the life of the country’s president. “Iranian president appears on state TV, says country is ‘crushing enemy’s bases’,” BBC, 3-1-26. Pezeshkian is in a three-person interim committee, with Mohseni Ejehei, head of the judiciary, and Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi. Also, the FM says a “new supreme leader may be selected in a day or two.” Will the Assembly of Experts actually convene?
“Iran operations ‘ahead of schedule’, says Trump as Tehran hits back across region,” BBC, 3-1-26.
“Three US service members killed – Centcom,” BBC, 3-1-26. We don’t know where or who yet.
The last time this happened, peaceful protesters were slaughtered. Those celebrating the Ayatollah’s death should stay off the streets so the Regime can’t take revenge against them for the attacks by the U.S. and Israel. The new three person council may have ordered more shootings. They also don’t want regime change. “Internet access remains severely restricted in Iran,” BBC Persian, 3-1-26. “Data from Kentik, a company that monitors global internet traffic, indicates a sharp drop in connectivity across Iran following the attacks. The firm estimates that roughly 99% of the country’s access to the global internet has been cut. This is reflected on social media, where only a limited number of accounts – mostly belonging to Iranian officials or other trusted individuals – appear to remain active.”
Finally. The newspaper admits “[a] badly weakened Iran will no longer intimidate or threaten its neighbors in the same way. The regional impact could be comparable to the collapse of the Soviet Union.” See “Iran’s Regime May Survive, but the Middle East Will Be Changed,” NYT, 3-1-26. And then “Iran’s decline began two years ago, with Israel’s tough and sustained response to an invasion by Hamas from Gaza.” There is a new wind in the Middle East.
Yep, my thoughts about predictions markets were accurate. Somebody is making a killing. See “Bets on Fate of Iran’s Khamenei Spark Uproar at Leading Prediction Markets,” WSJ, 3-1-26.
Worth putting all this—I’ve predicted the IRGC would create a military narco-state and use Shia clerics as symbols of authority. “Iran’s Guards push to name next leader outside legal procedures,” Iran International, 3-1-26. “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is insisting on the swift appointment of the next leader of the Islamic Republic after Ali Khamenei’s death, sources with knowledge of the matter told Iran International. According to the sources speaking on condition of anonymity, the remaining IRGC command structure is seeking to finalize the decision within the coming hours, specifically by dawn on Sunday, March 1. The sources said with airstrikes ongoing, it is not feasible to convene a session of the Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader. As a result, the IRGC is pushing for the appointment of the next leader to take place outside the legally prescribed procedures. Reports received by Iran International also indicate that following the killing of Khamenei in joint US-Israeli strikes, disarray and confusion have intensified within the Islamic Republic’s security and military structures. Sources say parts of the chain of command have been disrupted, with the transmission of orders and operational coordination facing difficulties. This could further complicate field decision-making and crisis management in the hours and days ahead.”
“Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s ex-president who said ‘Israel must be wiped off the map,’ killed in Israeli airstrikes,” NYPost, 3-1-26. There are many reasons Ahmadinejad would have been on a target list, even if he was not favored currently by the (former) Leader. He represents much of what was bad about the Regime including Mahdi worship and massive anti-Semitism. “Ahmadinejad became especially notorious in the West for his rhetoric toward Israel and his comments about the Holocaust.” He was so controversial (including that the Second Coming and the Mahdi were about to occur) that the Leader side-lined his power when he was president. It’s pretty bad when you make Ali Khamenei look moderate.
“Exiled Shah Reza Pahlavi: “I Am Leading This Transition,” “The Military Will Side With Us, And We Have A Plan,” RealClearPolitics, 3-1-26. Key quotes. “REZA PAHLAVI — FORMER CROWN PRINCE OF IRAN: Well, Maria, to be realistic, from the time that we start until the day we can have the final referendum, I anticipate a period that should not be longer than a couple of years at most. What’s critical is the first 100 days — to immediately stabilize the country and the Iranian economic situation, and to ensure that the apparatus of government remains as intact as possible so the functioning of the country continues to be in place while we bring all the components together. At the very end, the people will have a choice, and various plans will be proposed in the Constitutional Assembly, which is the entity that will, of course, debate all these issues.”
A tortured understanding of international law by UK PM Starmer. He seems to be ignoring 45+ years and current threats, looking at this strictly as “who shoots first on a particular day” equals what is offensive/illegal IL, and a similar definition for self-defense. Well, he has missed opportunity to help lead in the world in a better direction, and keeps himself (along with France and Germany) in a Maginot Line mindset. At least the U.S. will now have access to Fairford and Diego Garcia.
“Starmer says he will give US permission to use UK bases for Iran missions,” Politico, 3-1-26. So he waited until the UK was attacked by an Iranian drone at its Cypress air base. That’s not leadership when a long-term threat continues. Wait until the next hit! Wait until the next British tourist hostage is taken!
“Western officials reportedly estimate Iran to run out of ballistic missiles in days | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 3-1-26.