Will Iran decide to take action directly? Now Israel is targeting Nasrallah. “Israel conducts massive strike targeting Hezbollah HQ in Beirut,” Axios, 9-27-24. “Israel conducted an air strike on Friday targeting Hezbollah’s central headquarters in Beirut in an apparent attempt to kill the group’s leadership. Why it matters: This was the biggest Israeli strike in Beirut since the 2006 war in Lebanon, and an Israeli source said the primary target was Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The strike also reportedly hit residential buildings, though there has been no word yet on civilian casualties. Driving the news: Israeli officials say senior Hezbollah officials were at the headquarters at the time of the attack. There has been no official response as yet from Hezbollah on the attack or on Nasrallah’s status. Hezbollah-affiliated al-Manar Television reported that four buildings in southern Beirut were hit in the attack. Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Adm. Daniel Hagari described the attack as a “precise strike on the central HQ of Hezbollah which was intentionally built under residential buildings in Beirut in order to use them as human shields.””
Nasrallah isn’t answering his phone. Oh wait, he hasn’t been using a cell for some time anyway. “Iran’s Supreme Leader Holds Emergency Meeting After Israel Attacks Lebanon,” NYT, 9-27-24. “But the initial assessment of Israeli intelligence agencies was that Mr. Nasrallah had been killed, officials said. … It was the first time that Mr. Khamenei had convened the Supreme National Council, the group that responds to national security threats, domestic and international and shapes foreign and national policy, for an emergency meeting since July 31, when Israel assassinated a top Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. … As Iran assesses how to respond to Israel, it faces a familiar problem: how to establish deterrence without encouraging all-out war. Analysts said that targeting Mr. Nasrallah escalated the standoff between Israel and Iran and its proxy militias to a new, more dangerous level. Until now, Iran has refrained from letting Israel drag it into an open war, analysts said. That posture is likely to continue. “Iran’s position seems to be that if Israel wants war, it’ll get it at the time of Iran’s choosing,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. Mr. Vaez said that Israel had decapitated Iran’s regional allies in the past, and instead of eliminating the threat, it has fed radicalization, enabling Iranian recruitment to continue.” Well Dr. Vaez, Israel’s actions in the present are not restrained.
Street celebrations in Syria and Lebanon and Iran. Here are some. “Israeli media cites ‘growing confidence’ among officials that Nasrallah was killed in Beirut strike | LIVE BLOG,” I24, 9-27-24.
“For Iran, shielding nuclear programme overrides commitment to Hezbollah,” Arab Weekly, 9-27-24.
“Israel’s attempt to kill Nasrallah throws down the gauntlet to Iran,” Telegraph, 9-27-24.
“Hezbollah is pounded by Israel, but key ally Iran is reluctant to intervene,” WPost, 9-27-24. Where is the government of Lebanon in all of this? You’d think that with Nasrallah eliminated from exercising control of the bureaucracy of government.
Notably, the article says that after the U.S. election that normalization with Saudi Arabia will progress. “Mossad has stopped over 50 Iranian-backed terror attacks on Jews since Oct. 7 – sources,” JPost, 9-27-24.