“China reportedly preparing air defense shipment to Iran within weeks, says US intel,” i24, 4-11-26.  “According to US intelligence sources cited by CNN, Beijing is expected to deliver man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) in the coming weeks, should the truce hold long enough to allow such transfers. These shoulder-fired missiles pose a significant threat to low-flying aircraft and were already used during the war.”  Is this what brought down the F-15?

Waiting for that first interview.  “Mojtaba active in Iran’s decision-making despite severe disfiguring injuries from airstrike – report,” i24, 4-11-26.

“U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Move to Technical Stage After Face-to-Face Meetings,” WSJ, 4-11-26.

“US intel said to assess Iran can recover underground launchers, fire thousands of missiles,” Times of Israel, 4-11-26.

“Saudi Arabia condemns Iran’s drone attacks on key facilities in Kuwait,” Iran International, 4-11-26.

Manpads.  “U.S. Intelligence Shows China Taking a More Active Role in Iran War,” NYT, 4-11-26.

“U.S. warships cross Strait of Hormuz for first time since Iran war began,” Axios, 4-11-26.  Two guided-missile destroyers, USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy, “crossed the strait from east to west to the Gulf, and then made their way back through the strait to the Arabian Sea.”

“IDF: More than 1,400 Hezbollah terrorists eliminated and over 4,300 infrastructure sites dismantled,” i24, 4-10-26.

“Iran’s negotiating team led by Ghalibaf arrives in Islamabad – state media,” Iran International, 4-10-26.

“UK to host officials for Strait of Hormuz talks next week,” Politico, 4-10-26.

“U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Are Make-or-Break, Pakistan Says,” WSJ, 4-10-26.

No one had reported yet there was a poison pill paragraph.  “It is understood the UK has still not received a formal exchange of letters from the US – a legal necessity required for the treaty to be enacted.”  This is good news for the U.S. to respond to Iran and other Middle East evantualities.  See “UK shelves Chagos deal after Trump opposition,” BBC, 4-10-26.

“Under the rubble: Iran’s hidden arsenal with thousands of ballistic missiles – report,” i24, 4-10-26.  “The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran still possesses thousands of medium- and short-range ballistic missiles tucked away in subterranean ‘missile cities’.”

“Day 41 of Middle East conflict — Netanyahu says there’s no ceasefire in Lebanon as Israel pursues talks,” CNN, 4-10-26.

“Iran is demanding tankers in the Strait of Hormuz pay tolls in crypto: What we know so far,” Fortune, 4-10-26.  The fee is $2 million and Iran is “accepting payment in a variety of fiat and digital currencies: Chinese yuan, Bitcoin, and potentially the stablecoin USDT.”

Interesting, there are to be negotiations in Islamabad, but Iran has requirements beforehand.  See “Iran says no negotiations without Lebanon ceasefire, release of assets,” The Hill, 4-10-26.

I’ll say Yes, and I’ll guess they’ll say No.  Then I’ll read what the CFR says.  “Was the Iran War Worth It?,” Council on Foreign Relations, 4-10-26.  Well, I’ve read it now.  They say “it’s simply too soon to tell.”

“The Era of Free Seas Is Unraveling—and Now Everyone’s Going to Pay,” WSJ, 4-10-26.  “America’s allies worry other players could try to replicate Iran’s example, like empires of the 17th century, when China’s Qing dynasty, the Ottomans and Portuguese taxed passing vessels. … “Once you have one major breach, others will follow and you quickly descend into a state of legal chaos,” said Jason Chuah, professor of commercial and maritime law, at the City Law School of City St George’s, University of London. “It’s extremely sad. International law seems to be at a breaking point in the Persian Gulf.”  Remember Pres. Jefferson!

The long arm of the IRGC and Quds have long been in South America and reach up to Central America.  “Costa Rica designates IRGC, 3 Iran-backed groups as terror organizations,” Iran International, 4-9-26.  “Costa Rica designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization, the foreign ministry said on Thursday, in a move that also blacklisted three other Iran-backed groups in the region. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Houthis in Yemen were also designated.”

“Trump says Iran’s handling of Strait of Hormuz is ‘not the agreement we have’,” BBC, 4-9-26.

Thank you, these media are catching on to call Iran’s hand on MK.  “In statement, Iran’s supreme leader said to vow revenge for his father and other ‘martyrs,’ claim Tehran is ‘definite victor’ of war,” Reuters and Times of Israel, 4-9-26.  The words and phrases “purported”, “statement attributed”, “ostensibly says” are used.  The following is then added, “Khamenei, who took over the role of supreme leader after his father was killed at the start of the war in February, has not been seen or heard in public amid the conflict, leading to speculation he has been seriously wounded.”  Perfect.

“The Iran truce may be too late for many African countries,” CNN, 4-9-26.

And Iran will ask for compensation for its own leaders’ poor decisions.  “Iran estimates war losses at up to $145 billion after weeks of fighting,” JPost, 4-9-26.  “Iran has suffered extensive economic losses estimated between $140 billion and $145 billion following six weeks of war with Israel and the United States, according to open-source intelligence assessments. Beyond the financial impact, the conflict is believed to have caused significant military damage, including hits to Iran’s naval assets, ballistic missile program, nuclear infrastructure, and personnel. The estimates, based on Iranian and open-source reporting, point to widespread degradation across key elements of Iran’s military capabilities. According to the assessments, Iran sustained approximately 2,076 fatalities and around 26,500 injuries, including thousands of military personnel. More than 66% of missile and drone production facilities, as well as shipbuilding infrastructure, were reportedly destroyed. In addition, between 160 and 190 ballistic missile launchers were eliminated, with hundreds more rendered inoperable. Strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear program, including facilities in Natanz, Yazd, and Arak, are believed to have set back development by an estimated 8 to 15 years.”

“What to Know About the Bab El-Mandeb Strait as Iran Threatens to Restrict Other Key Trade Passage,” Time, 4-9-26.

Is NPR blaming Pres. Trump or Israel or the Regime of impacting Christmas?  “How an ancient resin traded for centuries got snarled up by the Iran war,” NPR, 4-9-26.

MK (abbrev. for Mahdi, the savior not seen yet) astonishes me, as he can talk without being able to talk.  “Khamenei says Tehran ‘astonished the world’ during US-Israeli war on Iran,” Al Jazeera, 4-9-26.

“Trump casts doubt on ceasefire as Iran maintains chokehold on Strait of Hormuz,” CBC, 4-9-26.

You might think that I’m going to lead today with the ceasefire news and the no “total destruction of Iranian civilization” Trump statement.  We will post the ceasefire story in a moment, but first consider where the Regime is, has been, and seems to be remaining.  See “Iran says US must accept domestic enrichment for nuclear talks to succeed,” Iran International, 4-8-26.

“Iran war live: Trump declares ceasefire, Tehran agrees safe Hormuz transit,” Al Jazeera, 4-8-26.

“Trump says Lebanon not included in US-Iran ceasefire amid Israeli assault,” Al Jazeerz, 4-8-26.

“Pakistan calls for restraint from US, Iran after ceasefire violations reported ‘across the conflict zone’,” The Hill, 4-8-26.  “In announcing the deal, Sharif said the ceasefire included Lebanon.”  But there is not a quote from him.  Trying to find one someplace.  Be aware that in ceasefire negotiations the nature of the agreement does not usually result in one document that everyone signs.  Instead, everyone walks away with their own list or document they create themselves to get approved by their home government.  This is due to the fragility of the talks themselves.

I see on BBC’s coverage of the Pakistan PM Sharif’s statement that Lebanon is included, it is listed, see it for yourself.  “Iran and US agree to conditional ceasefire and opening of Hormuz strait | BBC News,” BBC, 4-8-26.  At this point my only guess is that the U.S. and Israel are saying the first step is to open Hormuz.  But the U.S. and Israel are no longer bombing Iran, so that sounds like that was the first step.  But the agreements don’t say they are dominoed or stair stepped.

“Iranian President says Israeli strikes on Lebanon violate ceasefire, peace negotiations ‘meaningless’ | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 4-8-26.

I can’t wait to read how the unconscious MK negotiated with DT and BN.  Axios needs to have a staff meeting and discuss their headline wording.  “Exclusive: How Iran’s supreme leader reached a truce with Trump,” Axios, 4-8-26.

“Trump Secured a Ceasefire With Iran. Will It Last?,” CFR, 4-8-26.

“What to make of the Iran war cease-fire,” Atlantic Council, 4-8-26.

“Why ceasefire deal with US has unsettled Iran’s hardliners,” BBC, 4-8-26.

“Before winding down the war, US and Israel are determined to wipe out Iran’s nuclear expertise,” CNN, 4-7-26.

“Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is unconscious in Qom – report,” i24, 4-7-26.  “Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is unconscious and receiving treatment in the city of Qom, Iran, and is currently unable to participate in decision-making, according to a diplomatic memo cited by multiple intelligence sources. The document, seen by The Times, is understood to be based on US and Israeli intelligence assessments and shared with Gulf allies. The memo, reviewed by the British newspaper, suggests that Khamenei is being treated for a severe medical condition in Qom, traditionally Iran’s religious center and the site of major Shiite seminaries. It states that he is “unable to be involved in any decision-making by the regime,” marking the first publicly reported confirmation of his location since the start of the war.”  This article needs a revision by I24.  Because the son was badly injured the first night of the war, he was not conscious and was unable to serve when selected several days later by the Assembly of Experts.  He cannot be considered as the third ayatollah and the Assembly needs to select a new leader.  And explain why they appointed an invalid to lead their great country.  For readers, see the story from yesterday, “5 Men Now Running Iran,” FDD, 4-6-26.

“Photo shows children behind machine gun on military vehicle in Iran’s Qom,” Iran International, 4-7-26.  But Mojtaba Khamenei’s photo is on the side of their truck.

Notice that the BBC doesn’t touch the $2M ransom for each ship subject.  I’m confident Philippines and Malaysia and others are paying.  (in fact, this amount is close to what the Somalia pirates would receive a few years ago, remember?!).  See “Trump’s deadline looms but Asian nations already have deals with Iran,” BBC, 4-7-26.

“Iran’s Anti-Access and Area Denial Strategy Is Cruder Than China’s But Still Dangerous,” War on the Rocks, 4-7-26.

“The Iranian Advantage Is an Illusion,” NYT, 4-7-26.  “Right now, there’s no telling what will happen. But as you survey where Iran stands now compared with where it stood just three years ago, you are overwhelmed with a sense of loss. Your once-powerful proxies in Gaza, Beirut, Damascus: decimated, deposed or dead. The Arab states: increasingly on side with the Americans and Zionists. Your nuclear program: set back for years or decades, if not forever. Your economy: in even deeper crisis than it was before the war, with no turnaround in sight. Your most capable leaders: dead. Your own people: waiting for the war and the state of emergency to end so they can rise against you again. It’s a solace of sorts that sophisticated Western commentators think you’re winning this thing. From wherever you are now hiding — since it’s not safe to go to work — it doesn’t feel that way.”

“Iran-Linked Hackers Are Sabotaging US Energy and Water Infrastructure,” Iran Wired, 4-7-26.

“Iran’s president says Guards commanders are wrecking ceasefire chances,” Iran International, 4-7-26.

“Russia and China veto U.N. resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz,” NYT, 4-7-26.  Lest there be any doubt about how the UN is not an effective entity in international relations and international law.  “Russia and China on Tuesday vetoed a resolution at the United Nations Security Council that called for countries to cooperate in taking defensive action to open the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has closed in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks. The move effectively blocked U.N. authorization for the use of military force to address the maritime crisis. The resolution received 11 votes in favor, two votes against and two abstentions. China and Russia, both permanent members of the Council with veto powers, shot it down. Pakistan, which has been mediating between Iran and the U.S., abstained. The vote came just a few hours before President Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, a vital waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil is shipped.  Mr. Trump had warned on Tuesday morning that “a whole civilization will be wiped out” if a deal was not reached. Bahrain, with the support of Arab countries in the Persian Gulf and the United States, had drafted and put forth the resolution after weeks of diplomatic negotiations. The text of the resolution went through at least five revisions and the language was watered down — from authorizing offensive military force to allowing only defensive actions to open the strait. “Failing to adopt this resolution sends the wrong signal to the world, a signal that the threat to international waters can pass without any decisive action by the international organization responsible for maintenance of international peace and security,” said Bahrain’s foreign minister, Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani. Bahrain, the only Arab member of the Council, is presiding over the Council this month. Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., condemned the rejection of the resolution, saying Bahrain’s request was not unreasonable given the economic and security upheaval caused by Iran’s actions. “It was a simple resolution: Iran must stop attacking the Gulf, stop threatening its neighbors, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” Mr. Waltz said. Russia and China said the resolution failed to state that the crisis was a result of U.S. and Israeli aggression against Iran, instead placing all of the blame on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz was open before Israel and the U.S. launched attacks on Iran on Feb. 28. Russia and China also said they opposed setting a “dangerous” legal precedent for resorting to force to settle disputes in the sea.”

More details.  “‘Safe and sound’: How a U.S. Airman Shot Down in Iran Was Rescued From a Mountain Crevice,” Time, 4-6-26.  A defense official told Axios that the pilot and the airman “were spread apart by a couple miles” with “hundreds” of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) soldiers “everywhere.”  … After the crash landing, the colonel hiked up a 7,000-foot mountain ridgeline and hid in a crevice. While evading capture, he activated an emergency beacon, which allowed U.S. forces to locate him, two U.S. officials told Fox News. A military official told the New York Times that the airman’s signaling was intermittent. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was at the center of the operation, launching a deception campaign to throw Iranian officials off, according to Axios. It said CIA operatives spread a false campaign within Iran that both crew members of the downed F-15 jet had already been found and that U.S. forces were working on exfiltration, trying to confuse Iranian officials who were also working to capture the officer. Trump told Axios that U.S. officials initially suspected the airman might be in Iranian captivity and “sending false signals” to create a trap. The airman had sent a short radio message that said “God is good,” a defense official told Axios. (Trump told the outlet the message said “Power be to God” and that “what he said on the radio sounded like something a Muslim would say.”) The CIA used special technology to locate the airman and determine that it was him, an official told the Times. The CIA also reportedly facilitated an “unconventional assisted recovery,” a process in which the agency contacts civilians willing to aid or shelter U.S. military forces, Axios reported. While the airman was hiding in the mountains, IRGC said it was searching the area near where the pilot’s plane came down, and Iranian officials issued a public plea for locals to find the crew member, offering a reward of $60,000. Videos posted online showed locals from the area where the jet went down forming search parties to find the airman. According to the Times, U.S. aircraft dropped bombs on convoys that approached the area where the airman was hiding. When the airman was found, he was taken to two MC-130J aircraft that were waiting nearby to exfiltrate him out of the country. But the aircraft malfunctioned, which led to U.S. forces destroying the two disabled planes and four helicopters, the Times reported. The commandos and injured airman were eventually reloaded onto three replacement aircraft, according to the Times.”  I’m waiting to hear how the airman was transported from hiding place to waiting aircraft (that had to be destroyed).  What a story, wait for the movie.  And you didn’t hear this from me, right?  Do you remember that Russia and China are providing targeting information to Iran?  Do you think if they could read where the pilot was hiding from his emergency beacon that they would have passed that on to Iran?

“Trump and Hegseth on Iran war: ‘God is good’,” CNN, 4-6-26.  A word about the confusion reported at Langley about the first transmission, God is Good.  They thought it was a trap?  Then they weren’t thinking.  I’m guessing the Backseat/Dude 44 was distinguishing himself from Allahu Akbar (Arabic: God is Great, God is Greater, God is the greatest) and wanted them to know it was him, not an enemy.  Otherwise the one writing would have used the correct phrase.  There is another angle here, that he wanted to give glory to the Almighty simultaneous with reporting that he was okay and ready for rescue.  As an aside, with Artemis II circling the Moon, I think back to the famous words of Neil Armstrong, knowing that the world was listening.  Well, here you have a downed airman, knowing that good forces and bad were both listening.  And that the population at large would one day read his words.  Not too much of a stretch—think before you speak, what both Armstrong and Dude 44 did.  (BTW, in case you’re wondering, Iranians say Allah Akbar also but don’t use it as a threat but as a spiritual/emotional expression).

“Iran says intelligence chief killed by US-Israeli strike, as Trump threatens ‘hell’ if deal not made,” BBC, 4-6-26.  Israel has struck the IRGC intelligence chief Majid Khademi.  See also “Slain IRGC spy chief led operations against Israel, US, IDF says,” Iran International, 4-6-26.  “Majid Khademi, the head of the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence arm killed in Tehran on Sunday, was involved in activities against Israel, the US, and Iranian dissidents, the Israeli military said on Monday. “Khademi worked to advance terrorist activities against the State of Israel and against Jewish targets worldwide. He also took part in attempts to target American individuals and was responsible for monitoring Iranian civilians as part of the regime’s suppression of internal protests,” read the statement by Israel Defense Forces. The IDF described him as a key figure in operations directed both abroad and inside Iran.”

Just yesterday, much of the world condemned the Knesset law allowing the death penalty for Palestinians killing Jews in the West Bank.  But where is the condemnation from Iran’s Parliament approval of the death penalty for protesters?  See “Death penalty one of many tactics used by Iranian regime to prevent further protests,” BBC, 4-6-26.  “From what people have told me from the capital, on some nights, aside from the sound of strikes and explosions, there is another noise that prevents people from sleeping. It is the sound of patrols moving through the streets with the Islamic Republic’s flag and loudspeakers which can reinforce a constant sense of control. Other tactics have also been used, including checkpoints appearing across cities, the internet blackout, and mass text warnings sent to residents. These measures limit communication, making it more difficult for protests to form and spread.”  BTW, just to make it clear that I don’t endorse the new law in Israel, here on this blog I fully stand behind the points of the article, “The death penalty law for Palestinians convicted of deadly acts of terror is unconstitutional,” Times of Israel, 4-3-26.

“Israel killed Quds Force Unit 840 commander, Netanyahu says,” Iran International, 4-6-26.  “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel killed Asghar Bakri – aka Yazdan Mir or Commander Bagheri – the head of Unit 840 in Iran’s IRGC-Quds Force, in an overnight operation, according to a post on X. Netanyahu said Bakri had been responsible for attacks targeting Jews and Israelis around the world. He also said Israel killed Majid Khademi, the head of IRGC intelligence, describing him as a senior figure who had recently taken up the post after his predecessor was killed. “Whoever acts to murder our citizens, whoever directs terror against the State of Israel, whoever builds the Iranian axis of evil, bears responsibility for his own blood,” Netanyahu said.”  It really is quite striking that after years of Iran trying to kill Israel, putting the Ayatollah’s words into actions, that Israel is finally able to stop much of this, certainly to deter.  Intelligence agencies and militaries around the world competely understand what is going on here.

More details.  The noses of the C-130s sunk, which will be subject of evaluation.  “A Harrowing Race Against Time to Find a Downed U.S. Airman in Iran,” NYT, 4-6-26.  “A senior U.S. official described the rescue mission as one of the most challenging and complex in the history of U.S. Special Operations. The commandos had to contend with the mountainous terrain, the Iranian forces that they assumed would rush to attack them and the injured airman’s health, which remained uncertain. As the commandos landed on the objective, U.S. and Israeli warplanes dropped bombs whose bright orange blasts lit up the silhouettes of the surrounding mountains. From his hiding place, the weapons officer alerted his rescuers to the areas they should target for strikes, where he could see Iranians advancing, one senior military official said. The commandos fired their weapons ferociously to keep any Iranians in the area from advancing toward them. But they did not engage in a firefight with enemy forces. U.S. officials described the territory where the airman was hiding as strongly opposed to the Iranian regime and said it was unclear how close Iranian forces ever got to the site. He was rushed to a helicopter that whisked him off to a sandy, austere airstrip inside Iran that Special Operations forces had previously developed for possible rescues or other contingencies. The plan was to immediately load the airman and the rescue force onto two C-130 aircraft that were supposed to carry them out of danger to an airfield in Kuwait. But, in a final twist, the nose gear of at least one, and possibly both, of those planes got stuck in the sandy dirt at the airstrip, military officials said. Hours passed. Efforts to free the stuck wheels failed, so the commandos called in three replacement aircraft. … Eventually the commandos and the injured weapons system operator were reloaded onto three newly arrived replacement aircraft. After the rescue team left, American warplanes bombed the two disabled planes and four MH-6 Special Operations helicopters rather than let them fall into Iranian hands. As the sun was rising, the three planes launched in succession from the remote airstrip. The plane carrying the rescued airman went first followed by the others. When word reached the White House that the aircraft had cleared Iranian airspace, Mr. Trump announced the mission’s success. … All of the commandos were safe and accounted for. There were no U.S. casualties.”

Notice that with the death of the two officials over the weekend, there was not a statement from “the third ayatollah” Mojtaba Khamenei.  Maybe there’s a reason.  See “The Latest Blows to Iran’s Leadership,” NYT, 4-6-26.

“Iran pushes back against Trump’s deadline,” NPR, 4-6-26.

“Pakistan-backed proposal sketches two-phase deal to halt hostilities,” Iran International, 4-6-26.

It is an interesting thought to debate whether the terrorists (IRGC, Houthis) have grown so powerful they now threaten the entire world (trade and power) or if they have grown so desperate they now endanger themselves from the world’s ire?  See “Iran threatens Bab al-Mandeb closure: How would that affect world trade?,” Al Jazeera, 4-6-26.

This was no ordinary university.  Its professors conducted some of the nuclear weapons program research.  Too bad the article didn’t mention this.  “Iran’s top university bombed as US, Israel intensify attacks; 34 killed,” Al Jazeera, 4-6-26.

“Iran withholds body of executed teen protester,” Iran International, 4-6-26.  This is a typical example of Iranian justice.  “Judicial authorities accused the detainees of attempting to access an armory. After interrogations that involved severe psychological pressure, they were transferred to Ghezel Hesar prison, the source said. The defendants were denied in-person visits during detention and were only allowed phone calls. Their trial was held by Judge Abolghasem Salavati, and they were denied access to a lawyer of their choice. Death sentences were issued on February 7. Iran International sources said the confessions in the case were obtained under coercion and that the judicial process led to executions without full awareness of the defendants and their families.”

“5 Men Now Running Iran,” FDD, 4-6-26. See the article for a description of the criticized background and acts of each man. “Regime survival now hinges on key figures across the parliament, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the judiciary, and national law enforcement.” They are:
1. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
2. SNSC Chief Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr
3. IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi
4. Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei
5. Law Enforcement Command Chief Ahmad-Reza Radan

“The Iran War Around the World,” WSJ, 4-6-26.

The only news that matters today.  “‘Injured but safe’: Trump says US airman rescued in ‘miraculous’ mission,” Iran International, 4-5-26.  “The second crew member of the downed F15E fighter jet has been rescued and he and the members of the rescue team that extracted him from Iran are all safely out of the country, Fox News reported, hours after Iran reported deadly airstrikes on the region where the pilot went missing.”  See also “Israel assisted in US rescue mission of downed airman in Iran,” Fox, 4-5-26.

You’re able to read these details first on i24.  “Inside the dramatic special operation rescuing a US fighter crew in Iran,” i24, 4-5-26.

It sounds like SEAL Team 6 joined him on the ridge and held off Iranian forces.  Then copter extraction.  We will soon hear about the two C-130s we lost.  “What We Know About the Rescue of a U.S. Airman After Two Jet Crashes,” NYT, 4-5-26.

No, the two positions are not equal.  Even if they are both wrong, they are not equal.  The NYT is ignoring the track records.  The NYT is also ignoring what Iran would have done if they had found the pilot.  “Iran’s Downing of Plane and U.S. Rescue Leave Both Sides Dangerously Emboldened,” NYT, 4-5-26.

This is in response to the story about China, one of which I have on the blog just a few days ago.  “Satellite firm says it’s indefinitely withholding Iran war images at US request,” Times of Israel, 4-5-26.

“Saudi Arabia and UAE intercept Iranian missiles and drones,” Sana, 4-5-26.

Notice the headline.  “Missing Airman Raises Concerns That Iran Could Gain Leverage Over the U.S.,” NYT, 4-4-26.  The sub-headline is “Since 1979, Iran has repeatedly used Americans and Europeans detained on its territory to win concessions over more powerful adversaries.”  Can we please rephrase the headline to be more accurate?  Something like, “Missing Airman Raises Concerns That Iran Could Hold Him as Hostage,” or “Iran Will Most Likely Follow Practice of Holding the Found Pilot Hostage.”  Let’s call a spade a spade, a terroristic, pirate act as such.  They have held hundreds of hostages and have received hundreds of millions of dollars in ranson from multiple countries.  BTW, based on what the Obama and Biden administrations gave in cash to the Regime at hostage release times, I predict that if Iran finds the F-15 crew member the asking price will be $2 billion.

MEK, arrested two years ago.  “Iran executes two linked to opposition group, media say,” Reuters, 4-4-26.

China targeting U.S. forces, it’s not just Russa.  “Chinese firms market Iran war intelligence ‘exposing’ U.S. forces,” WPost, 4-4-26.  “Beijing has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into supporting private firms developing AI with practical defense applications under its civil-military integration strategy, and last month announced plans to supercharge those efforts as part of a broader five-year national strategy.”  (Remember, in China the private-government distinction is not really present.  China uses these groups to save the government money but also to feign non-responsibility for their actions.)  “Private firms have long used open-source data — including flight trackers, satellite imagery, and shipping data — to generate market intelligence. But the growing AI capability of Chinese firms is making these tools more powerful, underscoring the growing challenge of concealing U.S. military movements from adversaries.  “The proliferation of more and more capable private sector geospatial analysis companies in China will augment China’s defense capabilities and ability to contest U.S. forces in a crisis,” said Ryan Fedasiuk, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute think tank.  MizarVision, a Hangzhou-based firm founded in 2021, is one of the companies that uses a mix of Western and Chinese data filtered through AI to catalogue activity at U.S. bases in the Middle East, track naval movements and identify the position and number of specific aircraft and missile defense systems. Images sourced to the firm — which is not part of China’s military but holds a National Military Standard certification required for firms supplying services to the People’s Liberation Army — and posted on Chinese and Western social media, for example, detailed the buildup of U.S. forces in the Middle East on the eve of the launch of Operation Epic Fury, including the passage of the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups. It also shared detailed breakdowns of the number and types of aircraft massing at Israel’s Ovda Air Base, Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base and Qatar’s al-Udeid Air Base. “In the lead-up to the escalation of tensions in Iran in 2026, we quickly identified the locations of weapons and equipment deployed in the Middle East,” and “exposed” the refueling patterns of U.S. carrier groups, MizarVizion’s website claims. Elsewhere on the site, it claims to have tracked U.S. military escalation ahead of the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro “months in advance” and says it can “track the entire transport process” of U.S. medium-range missiles in the Asia Pacific “in real time.” MizarVision … does not disclose the sources of the data it analyzes — including satellite imagery, ADS-B flight data and ship AIS data — though Chinese state media reports, an analysis of images posted online and accounts from two users of the company’s platform suggest it draws on a mix of Chinese and Western sources.”

“Iran’s ‘new’ regime looks much the same, only harsher,” CNN, 4-4-26.  If so, let’s don’t give them Hormuz.  If not, let’s not give them Hormuz.  Either way, let’s not give them Hormuz.

“IDF believes Iran still has over 1,000 ballistic missiles that can reach Israel, intelligence officer says,” Times of Israel, 4-4-26.  “The Israeli military believes that Iran still has more than 1,000 ballistic missiles that can reach Israel, an Israeli Air Force intelligence officer tells Channel 12 news. “The Iranians have more than 1,000 missiles that are capable of reaching Israel,” says Lt. Col. “Tet,” who leads the research on Iran’s missiles and drones in the Air Intelligence Group, the IAF’s intel unit. At the start of the war, the IDF assessed that Iran had 2,500 ballistic missiles. Iran has since fired over 500 missiles at Israel, as well as hundreds at other countries in the Middle East, and potentially hundreds of missiles were destroyed in strikes. Iran’s missile fire on Israel has slowed to around 10-15 missiles a day in recent weeks, down from around 90 on the first day of the war.”

“UNSC delays vote on force to protect Strait of Hormuz – report,” i24, 4-3-26.  “The vote on the Bahrain-led draft resolution was postponed due to Good Friday, according to an AFP report

We are back to January 2026, or maybe we never left, as “enemy combatant” can be shot on sight.  See “Iran state TV warns public against disclosing officials’ hiding places,” Iran International, 4-3-26.

“UN Security Council vote on Hormuz resolution removed from schedule,” Iran International, 4-3-26.

My guess is Quds Force.  “US expelled Iran deputy UN envoy over security concerns – Axios,” Iran International, 4-3-26.

This opens up the IAEA personnel to attack or to be hostages.  “Iran’s accuses IAEA of ‘complicity’ in war,” Iran International, 4-3-26.

“Rescue effort underway after Iran shoots down U.S. fighter jet manned by 2 crew,” i24, 4-3-26.  See also “An F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran, American officials and Iran say,” NYT, 4-3-26.  “Iran shot down a U.S. fighter jet over the country, U.S. and Israeli officials as well as Iranian state-affiliated media said on Friday. The fate of the plane’s crew was unclear, as American officials scrambled to mount a search and rescue operation before Iran could get to any survivors, said the U.S. and Israeli officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military operations.”

“American fighter jet downed over Iran, 1 crew member rescued, U.S. officials say,” CBS, 4-3-26.  A reward has been announced by the Regime to capture or kill the airmen.

Obviously two planes in one day is big news.  “Second US warplane crashes near Hormuz, pilot rescued – NYT,” Iran International, 4-3-26.  “A second US Air Force combat aircraft crashed in the Persian Gulf region on Friday, with the pilot safely rescued, the New York Times reported, citing two US officials. The aircraft, an A-10 Warthog, went down near the Strait of Hormuz around the same time an F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran, the report said.”

“Exiled prince calls for Iraqi militias to be expelled from Iran,” Iran International, 4-3-26.

“Qatar reluctant to lead mediation for US-Iran ceasefire – WSJ,” Iran International, 4-3-26.

“Pakistan-led efforts to broker US-Iran ceasefire hit dead end – WSJ,” Iran International, 4-3-26.  “The report said recent mediation attempts stalled after disagreements over the terms of a potential halt in hostilities.”

I continue to harp on this.  Other countries, who have their leaders of course, need to make this a mainstay of their daily comments and demands.  If we can’t believe Iran on whether they have a person in charge, what can we believe them on?  It’s simple.  Why does Iran get a pass on what is normal?  It is so easy to prove—they can take their own film crew underground and interview him, let him read a speech.  See “Iran new Supreme Leader in good health, foreign ministry says,” Iran International, April 2, 2026.  “Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei Mojtaba is unharmed following US-Israeli airstrikes, the foreign ministry said, adding that not appearing in public is not unusual under wartime conditions. The son of the late Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a strike at the onset of the war, is “completely healthy,” according to spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei.”

“We can just keep working through a list of targets of ever decreasing significance and continue to piss them off to the point that the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] has a solid lock on the government and they feel justified in waging a holy war against the U.S. in perpetuity,” one of the defense officials said. “In no circumstance can Trump just walk away. He’ll be humiliated if he leaves; and we’ll be in a quagmire if he stays.”  Quote from “Officials warn US is running out of targets to strike in Iran,” Politico, 4-2-26. “The problem is there are few military sites accessible now without a ground invasion, said the former Trump official, who like others interviewed, was granted anonymity to discuss highly sensitive war planning. Tehran’s remaining ballistic missile stockpiles “are getting harder and harder to hit, because the ones that remain are likely in hardened bunkers,” the person said. “Otherwise they would’ve been taken out already.” Tehran’s strategy of trying to wait out American forces is paying some dividends, driving energy prices higher and ratcheting up the political pressure on the Trump administration to resolve the conflict and avoid the wrath of angry voters. The first official worried that Trump would stumble into a strategy similar to Israel’s campaign of ongoing episodic military strikes to keep its Middle East adversaries in check, known as “cutting the grass.” But that could leave the U.S. stuck taking potshots at Iran with little effect — and leaving Tehran in control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes.”

“About half of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers remain intact – report,” i24, 4-2-26.  “According to CNN, US intelligence assessments indicate thousands of UAVs remain in the hands of the Iranian regime, including “missile cities” that remain buried under rubble from attacks.”

Great article.  Remember what I said, to remember Pres. Jefferson.  “Control Over Strait of Hormuz Will Determine Who Wins the War,” WSJ, 4-2-26.  “Ending the war in the near future while Iran still controls the crucial waterway would be a geopolitical disaster for America’s allies and partners in the Middle East and beyond, said Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former national-security official in Bahrain. “Iran would be able to enforce selective sanctions on whomever it wants and whenever it wants, and essentially hold the flow of shipping through the strait at risk if it desires to do so,” Alhasan said. “This would ensure indefinite Iranian leverage over the Gulf states’ economies and over global energy security, and it would leave Iran in a state in which it is still capable of posing a threat, wounded, embittered, and in a hostile posture vis-à-vis most countries in the region.” … Gulf Cooperation Council states such as the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia possess significant naval and air forces of their own. But they, too, would be unlikely to fight Iran for the strait absent a major American intervention, diplomats and officials say. Still—together with other regional parties, such as Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, and the blessing of much of the international community—these Gulf states could apply significant political and economic pressure on the Iranian regime to reopen the waterway for free passage. Even Russia, Iran’s closest ally, said this week that any arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz must be agreed by all the other littoral states of the Gulf. Iran trying to enforce its control over the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities end would be akin to piracy, said Mehran Haghirian, director of research at the Bourse & Bazaar think tank. “It would just lead to a complete isolation of the Islamic Republic beyond what it is right now. And in what world would the GCC states just sit back and allow their lifeline to be controlled by Iran?” he said. “The tension would be not just with the GCC states but with the entire international community, from Indonesia to Burkina Faso to Colombia, that all depend in one way or another on the Strait of Hormuz.” There is another, more practical, difficulty: Currently, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is considered a terrorist organization by many states, including the U.S. and members of the European Union. Financial transactions with Iran, including paying for the passage of Hormuz, are subject to U.S. sanctions that would deter major global shipping companies. “In this bizarre era of maritime protection money, shipowners will risk their ship if they don’t pay Iran—but if they pay Iran, they risk their future in the global financial system,” said Jason Chuah, professor of maritime law at the City University of London. “What the Iranians are asking for is not just a transit fee but a loyalty test. It’s a test that no commercial entity can hope to pass.”

“Iran Beefs Up Defenses, Recruits Children as It Prepares for Ground War,” WSJ, 4-2-26.