Author: Neal Coates

Great, even if short, article displaying both the effects of sanctions but also the decision points that all countries must make—do they want to remain tied to violence and poverty, or turn toward freedoms and prosperity?  Let’s hope that Sudan moves away from Iran and toward the West.  See “US vies to weaken Sudan ties to Iran,” France 24, August 25, 2020.

Readers of this blog know the effects of the U.S. sanctions to date, how they have resulted in a gigantic economic squeeze on Iran and limited its available funds for terrorism and forced it to not be as robust in Syria as it would prefer.  We would certainly prefer if the UN would recognize the same need in response to Iran not living up to its commitments under the JCPOA—already the Europe-3 have called for consideration of these violations but put the consideration of such on hold.  The UK, France, and Germany need to hold Iran accountable.  And the UN itsel, UNSC Pres. Djani said Tuesday that the U.S. cannot snapback sanctions on Iran because that mechanism has not been triggered due to lack of UNSC member consensus.  U.S. Amb. Craft then criticized most members for not agreeing the U.S. has snapback power, and said “I only regret that other members of this council have lost their way, and now find themselves standing in the company of terrorists.”  See “U.S. cannot ‘snapback’ sanctions on Iran, U.N. Security Council president says,” Sommer Brokaw, UPI, August 25, 2020.

An unusual and fine article, teaching and reminding readers of the seeming cultural demise of the country.  It is so unfortunate that the glories of Iran’s wonderful history are de-emphasized by the Regime—the country thus lacks due to this purposeful twisting and ignoring of history.  See “Iran’s neglect of its cultural heritage backfires,” Kourosh Ziabari, Asia Times, August 25, 2020.

“France concerned about Iran’s ‘destabilizing activities,’ says FM Le Drian,” Arab News, August 25, 2020.

Another threat.  “UAE to Blame for Any Israeli Move against Iran, Spokesman Warns,” IFP, August 25, 2020.

To give us warm, fuzzy feelings.  “‘There is no limit to expansion of Iran-Venezuela ties’,” Tehran Times, August 25, 2020.

“IAEA chief in Iran for key meeting on Monday,” Yonah Jeremy Bob, Jerusalem Post, August 24, 2020.

“Iran sets June 18 as date for next presidential election,” ABC, AP, August 24, 2020.  “Iran’s constitutional watchdog on Monday set June 18 as date for the country’s next presidential election, a vote that will choose the successor to President Hassan Rouhani who has served two four-year terms in office. The watchdog, the Guardian Council, approved the date, Iranian election headquarters chief Jamal Orf told the official IRNA news agency. Candidates hoping to run in the balloting are to apply in early April for approval; the final list is to be announced in early June. Under Iranian law, an incumbent president cannot run for a third term if he has already served for two consecutive terms in office. Rouhani was first elected in 2013 and reelected four years later. … In February, Iran held parliamentary elections that saw a turnout of 42.57% — the lowest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and a sign of widespread dissatisfaction and the state of the economy amid intense U.S. pressure. The newly elected house is dominated by conservative lawmakers.”

The thesis is that “Over the past couple of years, an alliance forged between the IRGC and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has gradually assumed near total control of all branches of the regime.”  See “How radicals conquered Iran’s government,” Ran Porat, ASPI Strategist, August 24, 2020.

“Veterans Sue Iran Over Alleged Terrorist Attacks in Iraq,” Martina Barash, Bloomberg Law, August 24, 2020.  “The Iranian state funded and supplied various terrorist groups in order to kill and maim members of the U.S. armed forces in Iraq, dozens of wounded veterans say in a new complaint. Families of service members killed in attacks in Iraq are also among those who sued Iran and several agencies and state-controlled businesses in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia Aug. 21. The Islamic Republic of Iran is responsible for acts of terrorism, “extrajudicial killings, attempted extrajudicial killings, torture and hostage takings,” the veterans and families say.”

“Iran plane crash: Cockpit exchange recorded after missile hit Ukraine jet,” BBC, August 23, 2020.

“Venezuela and Iran sign trade agreements,” Prensa Latina, August 23, 2020.

“Iran’s Navy to be equipped with long-ranged cruise missiles,” Mehr, August 23, 2020.

This story is not helpful.  It provides statements both ways, and does follow-up with any sort of explanation for the statement.  “Iran official says sabotage caused fire at Natanz nuclear site – TV,” Parisa Hafezi, Reuters, August 23, 2020.

Excellent article.  “The Iranian Nuclear Program as a Catalyst for the Israel-UAE Peace Agreement,” Raphael Ofek, Algemeiner, August 23, 2020.

Sad but true.  “Iran Convicts Fourteen Activists While Those Who Killed Protesters Remain Free,” Radio Farda, August 23, 2020.

“Middle East’s extremism and sectarianism can be traced back to Iran,” Mohammed Al-Sulami, op-ed, Arab News, August 23, 2020.

It seems to be a sign of the winds shifting, and Iran opposes these changes.  “The UAE-Israel announcement proves the folly of warming to Iran,” Michael Oren, op-ed, CNN, August 23, 2020.

“Compensation talks for victims of downed jetliner to start in October: Iran,” Penticton Western News, August, 23, 2020.

3% or 15% or More?  “Rouhani Underestimates Impact Of Pandemic On Iran’s Economy, Khamenei Demands Reforms,” Radio Farda, August 23, 2020.

Be wary of pro-Regime news sources like Xinhua, the official state-run press service of the PRC, and be wary of headlines like the below.  Iran may say that it is ready to pay, but notice that the article doesn’t say how much compensation.  That is because Iran is not prepared to be a fair amount, just a low amount and close the file.  See “Iran says ready to pay compensations in crashed Ukrainian plane case,” Xinhua, August 22, 2020.

“Maduro Says Venezuela Buying Iranian Missiles ‘a Good Idea’,” Reuters, New York Times, August 22, 2020.

“Parts of Iran’s beloved Mount Damavand ‘could be turned into luxury villas ‘,” James Rothwell and Ahmed Vahdat, Telegraph, August 22, 2020.

“Now Is the Time to Force Hezbollah out of Lebanon,” Carine Hajjar, National Review, August 22, 2020.

“Iran Seizes UAE Vessel in “Tit-for-Tat” Over Death of Two Fishermen,” The Maritime Executive, August 22, 2020.

“Hardliners Attack Veteran Football Coach Saying Iran Must Recognize Israel,” Radio Farda, August 22, 2020.

“Iran unveils new ballistic cruise missiles after US triggers snapback sanctions,” Ellen Mitchell, The Hill, August 21, 2020.

“Iran denies that ‘new’ cruise missile is just an old one with new paint,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, August 21, 2020.

“Former Iran National Soccer Team Coach Under Fire After Criticizing Hostility Against Israel,” Radio Farda, August 21, 2020.

“President Faure: Missing Seychellois linked to drug network in Iran, shared intel shows,” Betymie Bonnelame, Seychelles News Agency, August 21, 2020.

“Pompeo Rebukes Allies on Iran, Hands UN Sanctions Demand,” David Wainer and Nick Wadhams, MSN, August 21, 2020.

“The man who said no: how Iran coerces expats to inform on friends,” Julian Borger, Guardian, August 21, 2020.

We will be learning more about this event that occurred just a few hours ago, amidst the threats Iran has made against its Persian Gulf neighbor for making peace with Israel.  “Iran detains UAE ship and its crew after fishermen killed,” Al Jazeera, August 20, 2020.

We know a little more from open sources today than yesterday, but still no specifics.  “Report: Hezbollah received ammonium nitrate from Iran,” Arutz Sheva, August 20, 2020.  A German newspaper, Die Welt, is reporting that Iran sent Hezbollah many shipments of ammonium nitrate, what caused the huge explosion in Beirut’s port early in August.  The report quoted anonymous intelligence sources from Western countries, and stated documentation exists proving Hezbollah had ammonium nitrate.  The IRGC and its Quds Force and Gen. Qassem Soleimani were involved.

“Iran to drill new phase at giant South Pars field,” Argus Media, August 20, 2020.

“Iran Unveils New Missiles Named for Leaders Killed in US Strike, State TV Says,” NBC DFW, August 20, 2020.

“US Charges 3 in Scheme to Move US Currency to Iran,” VOA, August 20, 2020.  “The Justice Department alleges Zaidi, Chawla and other members of an organization called Islamic Pulse received permission from Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to collect a religious tax on Khamenei’s behalf and send half the money to Yemen. … Prosecutors say after the United States imposed sanctions on Khamenei in 2019, the group continued to collect U.S. dollars in the United States and send it to Iran, “structured in a such a way as to avoid reporting requirements.””

“Pompeo Tries Starting ‘Snapback’ Clock To Restore Sanctions Against Iran By U.N.,” David Welna, NPR, August 20, 2020.

“Iran says takes “big steps” to boost uranium enrichment capacity,” Xinhua|, August 20, 2020.

“Head Of Khamenei Charity In Iran ‘Apologizes’ For Exposing Top Officials, Entities,” Radio Farda, August 20, 2020.

“Iran announces locally made ballistic and cruise missiles amid U.S. tensions,” Reuters, Newsbreak, August 20, 2020.

“Colombian leader says Venezuela trying to acquire Iran missiles,” AFP, France 24, August 20, 2020.  “Colombia’s President Ivan Duque claimed Thursday that the government of President Nicolas Maduro in neighboring Venezuela was working to acquire missiles from its ally Iran. “There is information from international intelligence agencies which work with us showing that there is an interest from the dictatorship of Nicolas Maduro to acquire some medium- and long-range missiles through Iran,” the right-wing Colombian leader said. According to Duque, the missiles “have not yet arrived” in Venezuela, but the country’s Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino had been put in charge of Venezuela’s “approaches” to Iran over acquiring the weapons.”

“The Russian-Iranian Partnership: An Eternal Honeymoon,” Ghoncheh Tazmini, Valdai Discussion Club, August 19, 2020.

All we know at present.  “Hezbollah has received large quantities of ammonium nitrate from Iran, the same substance that caused the massive explosion at the port of Beirut earlier this month. This is according to a report by the German news agency DEWALT.”  See “Hezbollah received shipments from Iran of the chemical that exploded in Beirut,” Zeev Avrahami|, Ynet, August 19, 2020.

“The Ministry of Communication and Information Technology is going to launch five satellites in cooperation with the Defence Ministry by the end of the year (March 2021).”  See “Iran Says Planning to Launch 5 New Satellites by March 2021,” IFP, August 19, 2020.

“Pro-Iran Groups Escalate Violence as Iraq PM Heads to US,” AFP, The Defense Post, August 19, 2020.

The UN investigation of the assassination of PM Hariri has failed.  Here are three articles.  Only one person was held accountable–no Hezbollah, no Iran, no one.  “Hezbollah Still Has a Knife at Lebanon’s Throat After Hariri Verdict,” Oz Katerji, Foreign Policy, August 19, 2020; “Tribunal Convicts Hezbollah Member in Hariri Assassination, Acquits Three Others,” Jared Malsin, Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2020.  “Shattered Lebanon finds little peace in Hariri verdict,” Najia Houssari, Arab News, August 19, 2020.

Under the terms of Security Council Resolution 2231, which enshrined the nuclear deal and to which the U.S. remains a party, the invocation of snapback for significant Iranian noncompliance starts a 30-day clock during which the council must vote affirmatively to continue the sanctions relief that Iran was given in return for curbs on its nuclear program. Pompeo is expected to present evidence of significant noncompliance, likely the latest reports of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), on Thursday. Iran does not deny violating some terms of the deal but says its actions have been forced by the U.S. withdrawal and the Trump administration’s reimposition of U.S. sanctions.  See “US to demand UN sanctions for Iran in complicated procedure that evades veto, “ AP, Daily Sabah, August 19, 2020.

“The Ministry of Communication and Information Technology is going to launch five satellites in cooperation with the Defence Ministry by the end of the year (March 2021).”  See “Iran Says Planning to Launch 5 New Satellites by March 2021,” IFP, August 19, 2020.

“Pro-Iran Groups Escalate Violence as Iraq PM Heads to US,” AFP, The Defense Post, August 19, 2020.

“U.S. imposes sanctions on two UAE-based companies for aiding Iran’s biggest airline,” Amanda Macias, CNBC, August 19, 2020.

Absolutely.  I wrote repeatedly in six op-eds that the U.S. must get out of the JCPOA.  And Pres. Trump deserves much credit for standing up to the world and Iran by doing so and paving a way for peace chances in the Middle East.  See “Outgoing Trump Iran envoy: Withdrawal from Iran deal led to Israel-UAE accord,” Jacob Kornbluh, Jewish Insider, August 18, 2020.  Brian Hook, the outgoing State Department special representative for Iran, suggested on Tuesday that the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran opened a path to broker the normalization deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates last week. “When you have the wrong Iran strategy, it is impossible to get peace agreements between Gulf nations and Israel because they don’t trust you,” Hook said during a webinar hosted by United Against Nuclear Iran. “And there’s no question that the nations in the Gulf and Israel viewed the Iran nuclear deal as a betrayal.” Hook maintained that President Donald Trump’s decision in 2018 to walk away from the international accord agreed to by the Obama administration “restored the trust” with its allies. “That was a necessary precondition to being in a position to get a peace agreement signed,” Hook explained. “When you get your run strategy right, it also creates a better environment for other good things to happen. And you saw that last week when we were able to broker a peace agreement between the U.A.E. and Israel.”

“How Iran tried to bribe Taliban operatives with bounties on US soldiers, according to a former Taliban commander,” Mitch Prothero, Business Insider, August 18, 2020.

The Quds Force brokered a deal with the Haqqani network, a guerilla group associated with both Taliban and al Qaeda.  And here’s a quote.  “It’s normal in Afghanistan for such people to work together but I know Iran very well because I lived there, same with Pakistan and I knew that both consider Afghans to be dogs they can use for their plans and let die. Haqqani and al Qaeda tell everyone that the Iranians are [infidels] but they also arrange meetings for them with the Taliban. You cannot trust any of these people.”

“Iran sentences pastor, wife to prison for security crime of ‘Evangelism’,” Jerusalem Post, August 18, 2020.  Authoritarianism is always challenged by Christians–those who believe in a Supreme Being and His higher law.  “Iranian courts have sentenced Pastor Victor Bet-Tamraz to 10 years in prison for “conducting Evangelism” and “illegal house church activities,” while his wife Shamiram Isavi was given a five-year sentence for “membership of a group with the purpose of disrupting national security” and “gathering and colluding to commit crimes against national security.””

“Iran’s hard-liners push legislation to exit nuclear deal,” Al Monitor, August 18, 2020.

“The Secretary-General of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, Dr. Nayef Falah Mubarak Al Hajraf, has expressed his condemnation of the threats of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and some Iranian officials towards the UAE, which carry serious repercussions on the security and stability of the Gulf region, and are inconsistent with diplomatic norms, local media reported. Al Hajraf demanded that Iran adhere to the basic principles, principles and pillars of the United Nations Charter and the international law, which are based on respect for state sovereignty, non-interference in internal affairs, resolving disputes by peaceful means, and not using or threatening to use force.”  See “GCC tells Iran that Gulf security is ‘red line’,” Samir Salama, Gulf News, August 18, 2020.

“US, Israel Readying Their Stealth F-35 Jets If Iran Procures S-400s From Russia,” EurAsian Times, August 18, 2020.

“Coronavirus costs Iran’s tourism $2.8b so far, minister says,” Tehran Times, August 18, 2020.

It is hard to tell what Russia has extracted from Iran by the reporting in this piece.  But Iran does receive some equipment.  “Iran, Russia ink MOU on mining cooperation,” Tehran Times, August 18, 2020.

“Iran denies Taliban were paid bounties to target US troops,” AP, Journal Courier, August 18, 2020.  So we’ve got another “it either happened or it didn’t.”  FM spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said the claims were “entirely false.”

“Tribunal Convicts Hezbollah Member in Hariri Assassination, Acquits Three Others,” Jared Malsin, Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2020.

“US intelligence indicates Iran paid bounties to Taliban for targeting American troops in Afghanistan,” Zachary Cohen, CNN, August 17, 2020.  It is now public that U.S. intelligence agencies determined that Iran offered bounties to the Taliban for targeting U.S. and coalition troops in Afghanistan.  The CIA and other agencies identified amounts for at least six attacks including a concerning attack at Bagram in December.  Iran paid the bounties to the Haqqani network, led by the second highest ranking Taliban leader.

So let’s deal with the untruth told by Iran about who owned the oil.  Here’s Iran’s side.  “Iran: Fuel en route to Venezuela seized by US wasn’t Iranian,” AP, Seattle Times, August 17, 2020.  “The cargo of four tankers seized by the United States last week en route to Venezuela was no longer Iranian property, Iran’s oil minister said Monday, insisting that the U.S. had no right to confiscate the shipment in international waters. [If it’s not their oil, they shouldn’t care if it was confiscated on the high seas]. According to the semi-official ISNA news agency, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said the oil had been “sold to customers and the payment was received” for it. He did not elaborate or say who the owners of the petrol was at the time of the seizure. But Zanganeh’s remarks echoed those of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif who on Sunday called the U.S. “pirates of Caribbean” in a tweet and said the ships carried sold cargo. Iran’s ambassador to Venezuela, Hojad Soltani, also said that neither the ships not the oil were Iranian. “Sadly for them, stolen booty wasn’t Iran’s. Fuel was sold F.O.B. Persian Gulf. Ship and flag weren’t ours either,” Zarif tweeted.

“Iran Claims Fuel Seized By U.S. Was Not Iranian…. But It Was,” Tsvetana Paraskova, OilPrice.com, August 17, 2020.  Iran claims the oil was FOB (Free on Board), which means the buyer is responsible for cost and liabilities once goods are shipped.  Otherwise a shipment is CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight).  But it doesn’t matter, the oil or gasoline can be seized even when the next buyer or the next buyer possesses the goods purchases, no matter what the good or the line.  The persons dealing with Iran are subject to seizure also—no one in international law says the goods can only be seized when still in the possession of the subject country.

“Tehran Says Ships Targeted by U.S. Were Holding Iranian Fuel,” Arsalan Shahla and Verity Ratcliffe, Bloomberg, August 17, 2020.  “Vice Admiral James Malloy, commander of the U.S. Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain, said on Monday that Washington contracted vessels to stop the tankers and transfer the fuel to other ships. Two of the transfers took place in the Gulf of Oman, and the other two occurred off the coast of Mozambique, he said on a call with reporters.”

A detailed, well-sourced report.  “Evidence suggests Iranian weapons being trafficked by criminal networks into the Horn of Africa,” Daily Maverick and Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime, August 17, 2020.

Four tankers whose fuel was seized by the U.S. over the past month were heading to Venezuela and carrying gasoline loaded in Iran, according to Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh. His comments are the first acknowledgment by Tehran that the vessels were transporting cargo from the Islamic Republic when the U.S. confiscated it. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said on Saturday it was a “lie.”  See “Tehran Says Ships Targeted by U.S. Were Holding Iranian Fuel,” Arsalan Shahla and Verity Ratcliffe, Bloomberg, August 17, 2020.

“Iran reports 165 more virus deaths, over 2,200 cases,” Ahmet Dursun, AA, August 17, 2020.

“Iran’s Economy Facing New Trouble With the Fall of the Stock Market,” Pooya Stone, Iran Focus, August 17, 2020.

“Iran’s proxies continue to be regional menace,” Maya Carlin, Israel Hayom, August 17, 2020.

Quote of the Day, this from Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, head of the Parliament.  “This deal and compromise is a blatant betrayal of human values, Islamic teachings of the Muslim community and the cause of Palestine.”  …  “Today, defending Palestine and fighting the Zionist regime [of Israel] is a clear criterion for telling justice-seekers around the world from hypocrites and criminals.”  …  “Those who strike up a friendship with the Zionist regime [of Israel] are seen by the entire Muslim community as a traitor, criminal and accomplice to all wicked actions done by the evil Zionist regime in the past, present and future.”  See “Entire Muslim World Sees UAE as Traitor: Iran,” IFP, August 17, 2020.

Narco-terror groups ELN and FARC are teaming up with Iran in South America.  “Southern Command eyes Venezuela’s illicit connections and Iranian patronage,” Abraham Mahshie, Washington Examiner, August 16, 2020.

“Iranian supermarket chain launches in Venezuelan capital,” Lucia Newman, Al Jazeera, August 16, 2020.

“FM Zarif Pledges Iran’s Unflagging Support for Palestine,” August, 16, 2020, Tasnim, August 16, 2020.

“UAE Rejects Iranian Threats After Historic Israel Deal,” EurAsian Times, August 16, 2020.  As does the GCC.  “Gulf Cooperation Council secretary general condemns Iran’s ‘threats’ to UAE,” Reuters, August 16, 2020.

No evidence.  “Beirut blast ‘100 percent Israeli job’: advisor to Iran’s Leader,” Tehran Times, August 16, 2020.

Saturday 147 died, reported on Sunday.  “Iran’s Daily COVID-19 Fatalities Down to 147,” IFP, August 16, 2020.

I’ve heard several caves have also been discovered in north Tehran.  “Caves in northern Iran show evidence of Neanderthals,” Tehran Times, August 16, 2020.

“Iran’s Parliament Deeply Rooted in Corruption,” Jubin Katiraie, Iran Focus, August 16, 2020.

The political prisoners said in their letter, “We started to strike today to protest the violations of the political prisoners’ rights and the authorities’ insistency on imprisoning justice-seeking people in these deplorable health conditions and in this remote prison, which lacks the necessary standards for human care. The main point is that none of us are criminals and our right to protest. Criminals are those who cause inflation and a catastrophic economic situation.” See “72 Detained Iran Protesters Go on Hunger Strike Over Coronavirus Fears,” Iran HRM, August 16, 2020.

The UN arms embargo on Iran will expire in October, unless the world or the U.S. takes action.  “Iran says to export arms once UN embargo lifted,” Syed Zafar Mehdi, AA, August 16, 2020.