Iran Nation or Cause

This important JCPOA/nuclear weapons news is a reminder of the international relations theory of realism, and of the importance of the U.S. needing to stand firm for freedom (against Russia and Iran), and a reminder that it is difficult for countries to stick together who have motives that are less than (select your adjective) for their own people.  This news is being carried by multiple news outlets.  “Russia’s demand for US guarantees may stall nuclear talks, says Iran official,” Middle East Eye, March 5, 2022.  But it is bigger than the negative actions by Russia against Ukraine.  Both Russia and China are asking “for written guarantee from Washington that its trade, investment and military cooperation with Iran will not be hindered by US sanctions.”

We will believe it when we see it, as this claim is against years of practice by Iran.  “Iran to answer UN nuclear questions as deal talks near end,” Philipp Jenne and Jon Gambrell, AP, Aspen Daily News, March 5, 2022.  “Today, Tehran enriches uranium up to 60% purity — its highest level ever and a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90% and far greater than the nuclear deal’s 3.67% cap. Its stockpile of enriched uranium also continues to grow, worrying nuclear nonproliferation experts that Iran could be closer to the threshold of having enough material for an atomic weapon if it chose to pursue one.”

The type of story that some of us have seen often—the last minute request or revelation.  “Iran Nuclear Deal Threatened by Russian Demands Over Ukraine Sanctions,” Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2022.

“Biden’s Dangerous Iran Deal,” National Review, March 4, 2022.   “The problem then and now is the same — the JCPOA never prevented Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, it allowed it to continue ballistic-missile development, and it ignored Iran’s status as the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism. The deal’s billions in sanctions relief (to say nothing of the ransom payments) have funded the brutality of the regime and its proxies.”  …  “One of the main failures of the original Iran deal was that even if the regime followed all of its provisions, it would remain on a long-term glide path to nuclear weapons, as the deal’s restrictions began to sunset within ten years of its 2016 implementation. But given Iran’s advancements since the original deal, Tehran is currently enriching uranium at up to 60 percent purity, producing uranium metal, and hiding stockpiles of fissile material from the IAEA. As a result, the Islamic Republic has a breakout time of under six months.”  …  “The original JCPOA capped enrichment at 3.67 percent. Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, said that even if Vienna ends up again in a JCPOA-style deal, Iran will continue to enrich at up to 20 percent — the threshold for being considered highly enriched and a crucial hurdle in the path to nuclearization.”

“Iran, U.S. Close to Reviving Iranian Nuclear Deal,” Laurence Norman, Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2022.  “U.S. and Iranian officials cautioned there was at least one big issue that still needed solving: Iran has been pushing for more sanctions relief if the nuclear deal is restored. In particular, it wants the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to be taken off Washington’s most significant terror sanctions list, the Foreign Terrorist Organization.”  This would be such a bad step by the Biden Administration—green lighting the IRGC to more easily do terrorism.  A terrible decision.

Uh oh, a scorched launch pad.  “Satellite photos show Iran had another failed space launch,” Jon Gambrell, AP, March 3, 2022.

“Iran releases activist who opposed Internet control bill,” Manistee News Advocate, March 3, 2022.

“IAEA Chief to Visit Iran in Possible Boost to Nuclear Deal,” Reuters, March 2, 2022.  Don’t do it—Iran doesn’t have a track record of following agreements.  “Three Iranian officials close to the talks said a wide array of sanctions, including those keeping Iran from exporting its oil and those on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi, were to be removed if the 2015 pact was revived.”

“Iran–Russia Relations Under Raisi: The Eurasian Dimension – Analysis,”  Deepika Saraswat, Eurasia Review, March 1, 2022.

And I thought the Ukraine War was started by Putin.  “Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Tuesday the war in Ukraine should be stopped and accused the United States, which he called a “mafia-like regime”, of creating the crisis.”  See “Iran’s supreme leader criticises U.S. over Ukraine crisis,” Parisa Hafezi, Reuters, March 1, 2022.

“Iran say West must resolve three issues in nuclear talks to revive deal,” New Arab, February 28, 2022.

Will Iran be honest?  “U.S., Iran Split Over Key Nuclear Issues as Deal Deadline Nears,” Laurence Norman, Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2022.

“Iran: Women Banned From Riding Motorcycles,” Iran News Wire, February 28, 2022.  “On Sunday, February 15, Hossein Rahimi, the police commander of Greater Tehran, while explaining the police’s plan to deal with motorcyclists, reiterated that since women are not given motorcycle licenses, they are not allowed to ride one.  …  In the regime’s judicial laws, there is no law prohibiting women from cycling. However, religious scholars in the religious dictatorship enforce this ban every year and routinely prevent women from using bicycles in urban public spaces. The last example is from 2021. The Prosecutor of Torghabeh and Shandiz in northeastern Iran announced that “In accordance with the decree of the Headquarters to Promote Virtue and Prohibit Vice, and according to the fatwa of some religious leaders who forbid women’s bicycling in public, women cyclists have been banned in the city. The head of the Cycling Board of Khorasan Razavi in northeastern Iran also announced the ban on women’s cycling in public spaces in the province, indicating that the Headquarters to Promote Virtue and Prohibit Vice was responsible for this decision.  … For more than four decades, the mullahs propaganda machine and the network of its Friday prayer leaders, all representatives of the regime’s Supreme Leader, have wasted no time in demonizing Iranian women to find ways to limit their rights and capabilities. In the regime of ayatollahs, women do not have the right to ride a horse, women do not have the right to ride a bicycle, women do not have the right to ride a motorcycle, women do not have the right to file for divorce or receive the custody of their children in case of a divorce, women do not have the right to become judges or presidents, and women are not allowed to choose certain fields of university studies, to name just a few.”

“Iran Plans To Invest $50 Billion In New Nuclear Power Plants,” Iran International, February 27, 2022.

“Iranian ambassador to UK removed from post over hijab incident,” Patrick Wintour, Guardian, February 27, 2022.  “Mohsen Baharvand ordered back to Tehran after video shows some women with heads uncovered at embassy reception.”

The police had already formed a ring around the Russian embassy in Tehran, so the protesters went to the Ukrainian embassy.  “After a summons to protest on social media, those assembled also chanted “Russian Embassy Is Den of Spies,” “Death to Warmongers and Putin Supporters,” “Putin Murders, the Stupid Ones Support,””Long Live Ukraine,” and “Long Live Peace.””  See “Iran Police Disperse Crowd Chanting ‘Death To Putin And Supporters’,” Iran International February 26, 2022.

“Why US Should Pull The Plug On Iran Nuclear Talks,” Luke Coffey, op-ed, Arab News, February 26, 2022.

“Who are the Americans held by Iran?,” Al Monitor, February 26, 2022.

“’MuddyWater’: Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security running malicious cyber campaigns, warns US,” WION, February 25, 2022.

“Why Iran’s Hardliners Welcome Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine,” Iran International, February 25, 2022.

In this barely noticed article, Iran courts (often done with bribes, etc.) a small country, Trinidad and Tobago, to join its orbit.  This is facilitated by the regime in nearby Venezuela.  “Iran’s president says country ready to share oil, gas experience with T&T,” Guardian, February 25, 2022.

“Iran to enrich uranium to 20% even after nuclear deal – nuclear chief,” Reuters, February 25, 2020.  Reuters, to its credit, does include this key point—“The 2015 deal restricts the purity to which Iran can enrich uranium to 3.67%, far below the roughly 90% that is weapons-grade or the 20% Iran reached before the deal. Iran is now enriching to various levels, the highest being around 60%.”  Only 3-4% is needed for electricity production and isotopes, so clearly Iran wants to continue to work toward weapons enrichment.

“Russian Invasion Puts Endgame of Iran Nuclear Talks in Jeopardy,” Jonathan Tirone and Golnar Motevalli, Bloomberg, February 24, 2022.

“Iran Blames NATO for Russian Attack on Ukraine,” Sune Engel Rasmussen, Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2022.

The headline says it all.  “Putin, Raisi Speak Amid Ukraine Invasion, Say Iran Deal Would ‘Help Maintain Stability’,” Haaretz, February 24, 2022.

“Iran-Linked Hackers Conducting Operations Against Government Networks, Intel Agencies Warn,” Nextgov, February 24, 2022.

“FBI, CISA, Cyber Command take aim at cyber-espionage by Iran’s MuddyWater group,” Tim Starks, Cyberscoop, February 24, 2022.

It would be best if Brazil does not enable the Regime with purchases of urea, walnuts, chestnuts, dried fruits, saffron, pistachio, and wheat.  “Brazil ensuring greater urea supplies from Iran in a fertilizer short world,” Merco Press, February 24, 2022.

“Prominent blogger Seved Hossein Ronaghi Maleki arrested in Iran after critical tweets,” Committee to Protect Journalists, February 24, 2022.