Iran Nation or Cause

Well, if “Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf on Wednesday called for participation in the June 18 presidential elections, saying turnout in the elections will show “love for the country and concern over the fate of the future generation and children of Iran”, then we can say “the Leader adopting fair election procedures will show love for the country” and so forth.  See “Everyone who cares about Iran will attend presidential polls, parliament speaker says,” Tehran Times, June 9, 2021.

Don’t do it.  Covid is still rampant, and there’s little treatment available.  Travel there and get it and never … go home.  “Iran may open borders to travelers in July,” Tehran Times, June 9, 2021.

“On June 13, the Whole World Should Be Watching Iran, Demanding Justice and Calling to #FreeNahid and #FreeThemAll,” Mariam Claren, Ms. Magazine, June 9, 2021.

“New Report Confirms How Iran’s Regime Fake News And Propaganda Work,” Mahmoud Hakamian, NCRI, June 9, 2021.

“Iran’s Foreign Debt at $9b in Fiscal 2020-21,” Financial Tribune, June 9, 2021.

“U.S. warns Venezuela, Cuba to turn away Iranian ships believed to be carrying arms,” Lara Seligman, Andrew Desiderio, and Betsy Woodruff Swan, Politico, June 9, 2021.

“Iran expert: Election candidates offer no roadmap to solve country’s crises,” Charlie Peters, Arab News, June 9, 2021.

Not a good sign, that there was “not enough” evidence.  “Iraq Releases Iran-Aligned Commander Arrested on Terror Charges,” Reuters, June 9, 2021.

This spokesman speaks truth—only the Supreme Leader makes negotiating decisions.  “Iran says nuclear talks policy won’t change after presidential vote,” Reuters, June 8, 2021.

But the candidates won’t blame the Supreme Leader—only the President.  “Iran debate puts problems on one man: the outgoing president,” Amir Vahdat, Westport News, AP, June 8, 2021.

“Blinken: ‘We don’t know if Iran is willing, able to comply with JCPOA’,” Omri Nahmias, Jerusalem Post, June 8, 2021.  “Even in the event of a return to compliance with the JCPOA, hundreds of sanctions will remain in place,” Secretary Blinken told lawmakers at the Senate Appropriations Committee and the Foreign Relations Committee.

“All-Important Wetlands in Iran Dried Up,” Sia Rajabi, Iran Focus, June 8, 2021.

“Iranian Diplomat Discusses Oil Agenda With OPEC Chief,” Charles Kennedy, OilPrice.com, June 8, 2021.

“Iran: 80% Of Child Laborers On Streets To Help Impoverished Families,” Iran News Wire, June 8, 2021.

“Is Iran Suffering From ‘Simple Sabotage?’,” Seth Frantzman, op-ed, Newsweek, June 8, 2021.

“Iran cleric who founded Hezbollah, survived book bomb, dies,” Jon Gambrell, AP, June 7, 2021.

“Hamas gets over 50% weapons, budget support from Iran, says Israel,” Manish Upadhyay, Free Press, June 7, 2021.

“Iran’s Threat to Iraq Is a Threat to the US,” Times of Israel, June 7, 2021.

Because crypto is associated with sanctions busting, tax evasion, crime, and terrorism.  “Government Cannot Stand in the Way of Crypto Technologies, Iran Minister Says,” Lubomir Tassev, Bitcoin.com, June 7, 2021.

“Iran’s Supreme Leader’s Prestige Falls against the Background of the Iranian Presidential Elections,” Michael Segall, JCPA, June 7, 2021.

“Iran nuclear ‘breakout time’ could be weeks if not restrained –Blinken,” Reuters, June 7, 2021.

“[I]n comments Monday to the IAEA’s board of governors, Grossi said “after many months, Iran has not provided the necessary explanation for the presence of the nuclear material particles at any of the three locations where the agency has conducted complementary accesses.” He said Iran also hasn’t answered questions regarding another undeclared location.”  See “IAEA head: Iran hasn’t answered questions on uranium find,” NEWS4JAX, June 7, 2021.

“Exclusive: Iran Steps up Efforts to Sow Discord Inside the U.S.,” Brian Bennett, Time, June 7, 2021.

“Iran hopes Russia and China oppose US role in MidEast, Central Asia,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, June 7, 2021.

Mismanagement and corruption cause multiple accidents in Iran every year.  “Steel-Plant Fire in Iran Is Latest in Spate of Incidents,” Golnar Motevalli, Bloomberg, June 6, 2021.  “A blaze broke out at a steel factory in Iran’s southern Kerman province Sunday morning, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said, the country’s fifth reported infrastructure fire in little more than two weeks. … Iran has suffered a flurry of incidents in recent days. An oil pipeline caught fire in the southwest of the country on Thursday, a day after a blaze engulfed a refinery in southern Tehran. A week earlier, a worker was killed when an oxygen pipeline exploded at a petrochemical plant in Assalouyeh, and on May 22, three people were injured in a fire at a unit of the Abadan refinery in southwest Iran.”

27 and counting.  But the big news is that Israel’s F-35s “take part in exercise alongside Italian, US, UK pilots in their largest, farthest-away drill yet” explicitly to prepare for Iran’s acts.  “In first, Israeli F-35s train in Italy — with Iran in their sights,” Judah Ari Gross, Times of Israel, June 6, 2021.

“Iran’s Presidential Race: Who is Ultra-conservative Favourite Ebrahim Raisi,” France 24, June 6, 2021.

This could be a regular crime story, but it rings a little unusual—is it a wider example of organized crime from Iran?  “Three Iran nationals nabbed for attention diversion cases in Hyderabad,” New Indian Express, June 6, 2021.

“Iran reaches new economic turning point,” John Bambridge, Middle East Business Intelligence, June 6, 2021.

“Fire and Explosion Hit Iran Steel Mill, Third Such Incident in Five Days,” Iran International, June 6, 2021.

The seven candidates for the June 18 presidential election had a debate, and two more debates will be held Tuesday and Saturday.  “Iran’s presidential candidates clash amid disqualification row,” Maziar Motamedi, Al Jazeera, June 5, 2021.

“Iran presidential candidates trade barbs in TV debate,” Reuters, June 5, 2021.

This is a very true argument—that if the U.S. wants Iran to change, the U.S. itself must be willing to commit (through a treaty) to that same agreement.  Note also that this is a full board opinion piece.  “Biden Should Aim for a Treaty, Not a Deal, with Iran,” Editorial Board, Bloomberg, June 4, 2021.

Politico is getting on this boat after it left the dock, a few days late on this story.  But more interesting is to observe that the media in general does not report on or investigate the “why does this matter” aspect of the story.  After years of Iranian naval activity (usually closer to home), what good purpose for Iran or good purpose for other countries does the IRGC provide?  Anti-smuggling?  Anti-piracy?  Patrolling straits?  Providing humanitarian assistance?  Defense?  No, Iran’s Navy and “coast guard” is not built for nor does it provide these services that a normal navy does.  So it is up to Politico to look back so that it can know what questions to ask about the present, and the future.  “Iranian warships appear to begin first Atlantic crossing as U.S. warns against weapons transfers,” Lara Seligman and Nahal Toosi, Politico, June 4, 2021.

“Iran wants action, not promises, to revive nuclear deal, Khamenei says,” Reuters, June 4, 2021.

I don’t think so.  Experience in these election decisions by the Supreme Leader shows they are usually final.  “Decision to remove candidates from Iran election to be reviewed,” Reuters, June 4, 2021.

Iran is in arrears on paying dues to the UN operating budget and will lose voting rights in the 193-state General Assembly.  I believe they owe 16M, from a posting some months ago.  This is an indication that the U.S. sanctions do bite because Iran does not want to lose face at the UN—lots of receptions and of course Nowruz.  But now they will.  “Iran, Central African Republic lose voting rights in UN General Assembly,” Business Standard, AP, June 3, 2021.

It is quite rich (excuse the pun) for FM Zarif (he makes an appearance!) to claim that U.S. sanctions prevent Iran from paying its UN bill.  Just look at how much Iran is spending to spin centrifuges!  Or look at any other unnecessary expense that Iran is making against its neighbors or against Arab states or in Syria or in Yemen, the list is billions of dollars long.  And Iran has money in its sovereign funds.  And the Ayatollah is worth billions.  They’ve got the money.  See “U.N. Suspends Iran’s Voting Rights for Delinquent Dues. Iran is Furious,” Rick Gladstone and Farnaz Fassihi, New York Times, June 3, 2021.

“The Iranian Navy IRINS Makran supposedly headed to Venezuela is ordered back home as a result of IRIS Kharg sinking in the Gulf of Oman. She will replace Kharg in the IRIN training mission to Russia. It won’t be officially confirmed as they weren’t officially headed to Venezuela.”  See “Loss of Iranian Navy Ship Mutes Tehran’s Global Ambitions,” 3rd Warship Lost Since 2018,” H.I. Sutton, USNI News, June 3, 2021.

“Why Iran’s Presidential Election Is a Sham,” Eli Lake, op-ed, Bloomberg, June 3, 2021.

“U.S. sees sixth round of Iran nuclear talks and likely more,” Reuters, June 3, 2021.

“Opinion: The way forward on containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions,” Bob Menendez and Lindsey Graham, op-ed, Washington Post, June 3, 2021.

“Iran nuclear talks expected to resume on June 10 – diplomats,” Reuters, June 2, 2021.  Can’t wait for this one.  “EU official sees Iran nuclear deal at next round of talks,” Francois Murphy, Reuters, June 2, 2021.

“Iran Interested in Russian Weapons Systems: Moscow Official,” Inder Singh Bisht, Defense Post, June 2, 2021.

Yes, and 16 times greater than any other country that owes back dues.  “Iran and CAR lose voting rights in UN General Assembly,” AP, June 2, 2021.

“Iran’s deception began as soon as talks ended,” Kaveh Taheri, op-ed, Israel Hayom, June 2, 2021.

Very good overview of the various Naval incidents for Iran in the past several years, including this one for the Kharg, a supply/refueling ship, which burned and sank June 1. “Iran’s largest warship catches fire, sinks in Gulf of Oman,” Amir Vahdat and Jon Gambrell, AP, June 1, 2021.

“UPDATED: Iranian Warship Thought to be Headed to Venezuela Left Port with 7 High-Speed Missile Boats Aboard,” H.I. Sutton and Sam LaGrone, USNI News, June 1, 2021.

“Iran’s biggest cement production line inaugurated,” Tehran Times, June 1, 2021.

It is my understanding the pilots were inside a hanger when their ejection seat discharged.  Certainly a tragic scene.  “Iran TV: ‘Technical problem’ on fighter jet kills 2 pilots,” AP, June 1, 2021.

“Iran navy training ship on fire at mouth of Gulf, crew evacuated –report,” Reuters, June 1, 2021.

What?!  “In March, the import volumes of Iranian crude reportedly totaled 33,000 barrels per day. That marks the first delivery of Iranian crude to the US since 1991.”  Trying to entice the Regime back into compliance with the JCPOA?  See “US reports it has imported sanctioned oil from Iran, a first after 30 years of sanctions,” Hellenic Shipping News, May 31, 2021.  “The United States imported a rare cargo of 1.033 million barrels of Iranian crude in March despite sanctions on Iran’s energy sector, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed.”  See “U.S. imports rare Iranian oil in March despite sanctions – EIA data,” Reuters, May 30, 2021.  Ah, now it is apparent—the Biden Administration is not directly buying Iranian oil, but this influx is from the seizure of the Iranian tanker sailing to Venezuela.  “U.S. records show Iran crude oil cargo landed in March, month after ship seizure,” Reuters, May 30, 2021.  Finally, see “US sells off Iranian crude oil seized off coast of UAE,” Jon Gambrell, AP, May 31, 2021.  “The U.S. has sold some 2 million barrels of Iranian crude oil after seizing an oil tanker off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, court documents and government statistics show. The Iranian crude oil showed up in new figures released over the weekend by the U.S. Energy Information Agency, raising the eyebrows of commodities traders as Tehran remains targeted by a series of American sanctions. The EIA figures included just over 1 million barrels of Iranian “crude oil imports” in March. The oil came from the MT Achilleas, a ship seized in February by the U.S. off the coast of the Emirati port city of Fujairah. U.S court documents allege the Achilleas was subject to forfeiture under American anti-terrorism statues as Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard tried to use it to sell crude oil to China. The U.S. has identified the Guard as a terrorist organization since the administration of former President Donald Trump. Prosecutors say shippers tried to disguise the shipment by labeling it as “Basra light crude” from neighboring Iraq. The U.S. government brought the Achilleas to Houston, Texas, where it sold the just over 2 million barrels of crude oil within it for $110 million, or at around $55 a barrel, court documents show. The money will be held in escrow amid a court case over it.”

“Iran and world powers resume ‘final round’ of nuclear deal talks,” Business Standard, May 31, 2021.

“The Iranian people are not just struggling against the coronavirus but also against the Velayat (clerical rule) Virus.”  See “Iran and the Covid-19 crisis,” Firouz Daneshgari, Modern Diplomacy, May 31, 2021.

“Iran: Hamas already rebuilding Iran-backed rocket arsenal,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, May 31, 2021.

“Iran Nuclear-Fuel Production Plummets After Natanz Explosion,” Laurence Norman, Wall Street Journal, May 31, 2021.

“Pan-Gulf identity as an alternative to Iran’s Vilayat-e Faqih,” Mohammed Al-Sulami, Arab News, May 31, 2021.

One more reason not to treat with Iran.  “UN watchdog: Access to key Iranian data lacking since Feb 23,” Kiyoko Metzler and David Rising, AP, May 31, 2021.

“70-Percent Increase in Price of Food in Iran,” Jubin Katiraie, Iran Focus, May 31, 2021.

“Can Hamas, an Iranian Proxy, Be Deterred?,” Farhad Rezaei, BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,058, May 31, 2021.

“Iran: Ebrahim Raisi, the Oppressor of Mashhad Protests,” Mahmoud Hamidi, Iran News Update, May 31, 2021.

“UN nuclear watchdog chides Iran over uranium enrichment,” DW, May 31, 2021.

“Iran warns Armenia to halt Araz River pollution,” AzerNews, May 31, 2021.

“Iran’s Virtually Uncontested Presidential Election Is a Precursor To Expanded Repression,” Mansoureh Galestan, NCRI, May 31, 2021.

“Women Share Stories Of Sexual Abuse In Iranian Prisons,” Golnaz Esfandiari, RFE/RL, May 31, 2021.

“Iran fails to explain uranium traces found at several sites -IAEA report,” Francois Murphy, Reuters, May 31, 2021.

“Benjamin Briere: France condemns spying charge against tourist in Iran,” Tim Stickings, The National, May 31, 2021.