Iran Nation or Cause

For those who say sanctions are having no effect.  “Iran is undergoing a severe economic crisis as Covid-19 cases surge in the country. The Iranian health ministry says that the number of daily Covid-19 infections has more than quadrupled in less than two months. In addition, an increasing number of sanctions have been placed on Iran by the U.S. government, while the local fiat currency, the rial, continues to dramatically fall. Steve H. Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University and a hyperinflation expert, described the situation in Iran as “a classic death spiral.””  See “Iran Adopts Bitcoin for International Trade Amid Heavy Sanctions, Falling Rial, Soaring Inflation,” Kevin Helms, November 7, 2020.

These types of interviews are tricky for Western researchers, and as a general rule should be avoided because the Regime-controlled outlets take comments out of context.  Or they use comments to support their positions.  Or they attempt to magnify a split of opinion in the (free) West.  Or all three.  There is another reason to post this interview—it has the rare byline in a Tehran Times article, and the entire interview is actually posted.  This type of candor and openness is not the norm for the Times.  See “Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran absolutely failed: Harvard researcher,” Mohammad Mazhari, Tehran Times, November 7, 2020.

“Hezbollah, Iran preventing Lebanese recovery: Expert,” Benedict Spence, Arab News, November 7, 2020.

“Iran: Authorities Now Starving Political Prisoners,” Iran News Update, November 7, 2020.

On Nov. 7, the Supreme Leader had typed onto his Twitter feed his statement that “The situation in the US & what they themselves say about their elections is a spectacle! This is an example of the ugly face of liberal democracy in the US. Regardless of the outcome, one thing is absolutely clear, the definite political, civil, & moral decline of the US regime.”  Observers can decide for themselves—Is the U.S. in decline?  How does the U.S. election compare to Iran’s presidential elections?  Does the U.S. electoral system produce the voters’ will?  Does Iran’s?  See “Iran calls US election a ‘spectacle,’ says it is a clear sign of ‘decline’,” Peter Aitken, Fox News, November 7, 2020.

“Source: Female Iranian Filmmaker Jailed Since 2018 Sentenced to 10 Years in Prison,” Michael Lipin, Ramin Haghjoo, and Mehrdad Mashayekhi,” VOA, November 7, 2020.

“Jailed Iranian rights lawyer released, amid health problems,” AP, ABC, November 7, 2020.

“Facebook closes suspicious accounts from Iran, Muslim Brotherhood,” Al Monitor, November 6, 2020.

It continues to appear that Iran really doesn’t want to do anything about the downed jet.  “U.N. Panel Urges Iran to Speed Investigation of Downed Jet,” Reuters, November 6, 2020.

Again, you can tell which side of the freedom ledger a country is on by the allies it keeps.  “Cuba and Iran FMs to mark alliance against US sanctions,” Al Jazeera, November 6, 2020.

“Iran’s U.N. Envoy Distorts World Court’s Order,” Polygraph Info, November 6, 2020.

The IRGC is asserting control over inflation, thus the economy.  In fact, “Chief Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, announced a new “headquarters” on Wednesday to combat soaring prices in Iran.”  See “IRGC Joins ‘War With Soaring Prices’,” Radio Farda, November 6, 2020.

Died Thursday.  “424 More Iranians Die of Coronavirus: Ministry,” IFP, November 6, 2020.

“Karabakh War An Increasingly Serious Policy Challenge For Iran – Analysis,” Paul Goble, The Jamestown Foundation, November 6, 2020.

“Facebook removes Iranian accounts targeting Israel protests,” AP, November 6, 2020.

“Cuba and Iran FMs to mark alliance against US sanctions,” Al Jazeera, November 6, 2020.

“US seizes another crop of Iranian propaganda domains masked as news outlets,” Campbell Kwan, ZDNet, November 5, 2020.

Part of me says why is this even a story?  Why should the countries of South America and Central America and North America even get to the point where this is even debated?  I suppose it is at the very first of the debate.  But it should also be very easy to ask these countries to demand that Iran (which has done this thing in other places) to quickly come together and condemn any such missiles/weapons movement plan.  See “How the U.S. Can Prevent Iran from Stationing ICBMs in Venezuela,” Benjamin Weil, op-ed, Newsweek, November 5, 2020.

First, the province of Kerman, then Yazd.  These types of projects do not have a good track record in authoritarian states and usually end up in great loss of water and environmental disaster.  “Iran to Start Transferring Persian Gulf Water to Desert Areas,” IFP, November 4, 2020.  Here is another article describing the almost completed project to ship water to the desert.  “The projects come with a price tag of more than Rls. 160 billion, employing around 16 thousand people during the time they were under construction and 1,200 staff members after they become operational. The major water desalination and transfer project was implemented by drawing on both domestic and foreign expertise as well as the latest technical and technological advances. The project aims to produce some 1.5 million cubic metres of desalinated water, which will be pumped via three transfer lines for potable, industrial and mineral water.”   See “Iran Puts into Service Phase One of Major Desalination Project,” IFP, November 5, 2020.

“Azerbaijan, Iran mull bilateral energy cooperation,” MENAFM, November 5, 2020.

“Iranian parliament approves bill specifying increased uranium enrichment,” Nuclear Engineering International, November 5, 2020.

“Baha’is and Women in Iran Victims of Discrimination in Seeking Higher Education,” Iran Press Watch, November 5, 2020.

Interesting statement by FM Zarif.  Does it portend expanded action by Iran and Venezuela?  In the same statement he encourages Maduro to acquire Iranian weapons—which means missiles.  “Iran foreign minister, in ally Venezuela, says U.S. no longer ‘controls world’,” Reuters, November 5, 2020.

“Factbox: Iranian influence and presence in Syria,” Navvar Saban, MENASource, November 5, 2020.

“Iran Executes Four People in 24 Hours,” Iran News Update, November 5, 2020.

Pres. Rouhani said, “It does not matter what the outcome of the US election is tonight or tomorrow… the future US administration will succumb to the will of the Iranian people.”  Iran’s regime thinks the next Administration will “surrender” to them and return to the JCPOA.  See “Iran: Next US administration will ‘surrender’ to Iran,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, November 5, 2020.

I suppose this means that Iran will give Belarus advice and support regarding the large protests of the recent stolen election.  Other countries condemned the actions by Lukashenko.  “Iran, Belarus vow to deepen economic, political ties,” Trend, November 4, 2020.

And this story is immediately followed by an almost identical topic.  Why isn’t the FM visiting countries which have a trajectory toward more freedom and human rights and respect for law?  “Iran, Venezuela Look To ‘Deepen’ Ties,” RFE/RL, November 4, 2020.

I’m not sure at this point how this IRGC automated system launches multiple long-range ballistic missiles.  See “Iran unveils homemade ballistic missile launcher,” Xinhua, November 4, 2020.

Now I understand.  The news didn’t explain fully—the automated ready-to-launch ballistic missiles is on a railway-type system in a large underground area.  See “Iran Now Has Mobile Ballistic Missile Launching ‘Magazines’ For Its Underground Bases,” Thomas Newdick, The War Zone, November 4, 2020.  But when you watch the video of their being loaded onto the track system in into their vertical system, each missile is about 12-15 feet apart.  Are they going to launch a missile from underground (a hatch opens) with other missiles stored for launch just a few feet away?  Sound likes a massive underground explosion to me.

So the Supreme Leader has spoken, has taken a side.  Iran is not neutral, and apparently is feeling the heat of the large group of Azeris living in Iran.  See “Territories Under Armenian Occupation Must Be ‘Liberated’,” Orkhan Jalilov, Caspian News, November 4, 2020.

I’m not sure at this point how this IRGC automated system launches multiple long-range ballistic missiles.  See “Iran unveils homemade ballistic missile launcher,” Xinhua, November 4, 2020.

Now I understand.  The news didn’t explain fully—the automated ready-to-launch ballistic missiles is on a railway-type system in a large underground area.  See “Iran Now Has Mobile Ballistic Missile Launching “Magazines” For Its Underground Bases,” Thomas Newdick, The War Zone, November 4, 2020.

Iran on Monday reported a record 440 COVID deaths during Sunday.  “Iran reports record high COVID-19 death toll as travel bans go into force,” Gulf News, November 4, 2020.

So the Supreme Leader has spoken, has taken a side.  Iran is not neutral, and apparently is feeling the heat of the large group of Azeris living in Iran.  See “Territories Under Armenian Occupation Must Be ‘Liberated’,” Orkhan Jalilov, Caspian News, November 4, 2020.

“Iran foreign minister arrives in Venezuela to start Latin America tour,” Reuters, November 4, 2020.

A good sign, and in Israel no less.  In fact, surprising.  “Iran’s participation in the event represents a stark departure from its traditional policy regarding international competitions with Israeli teams.”  See “Iran to send gamers to Israel for international e-sports competition,” Aaron Reich, Jerusalem Post, November 3, 2020.

A good sign, and in Israel no less.  In fact, surprising.  “Iran’s participation in the event represents a stark departure from its traditional policy regarding international competitions with Israeli teams.”  See “Iran to send gamers to Israel for international e-sports competition,” Aaron Reich, Jerusalem Post, November 3, 2020.

“US recently conducted cyber operation against Iran to protect election from foreign interference,” Zachary Cohen, CNN, November 3, 2020.

“Iran’s supreme leader breaks silence on US election,” Al Monitor, November 3, 2020.  Supreme Leader Khamenei defended his position toward the U.S. as a “calculated” policy that will not change based on “who enters or leaves” the presidency.

France has joined (again) the list of bad countries.  “Iran’s traditional Student Day march, which marks the anniversary of the Iranian seizure of the United States Embassy in 1979, will not be held for the first time in 40 years, due to coronavirus concerns, the London-based Iran International reported on Monday. Iran, which has recently seen another major surge in coronavirus cases, has also been dealing with the financial fallout of the ever-expanding list of US sanctions on the country. However, one official from the student section of the Basij militia organization is getting creative with his methods of protesting the US regime. While talking to a local television news station, Mojtaba Bastan, Acting Head of the Student Basij Organization announced a new campaign, titled ‘Everyone together [says] down with the USA.” Bastan said that on Tuesday morning at 9 a.m., parents and students should come together to “trample on and set fire” to flags of the US, Israel and France at home, where they can safely play with fire without worrying about catching a deadly virus.”  See “Iran official to students: Burn Israeli flags at home this year due to COVID,” Idan Zonshine, Jerusalem Post, November 3, 2020.

“Iran Uses Bomber Drones for First Time in Military Drills,” Patrick Sykes, Bloomberg, November 3, 2020.

On Monday, Iran announced its highest number of COVID deaths from Sunday of 440 fatalities.  “Iran registers record COVID-19 deaths, imposes partial travel ban,” November 3, 2020.

“Britain says appalled by Iran’s new case against Zaghari-Ratcliffe,” Jerusalem Post, Reuters, November 2, 2020.

“The head of the National Security Committee in the Iranian Parliament, Mojtaba Dhu al-Nour, announced on Sunday, the arrest of the head of the separatist “Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz”, the dissident Habib Al-Kaabi. Dhul-Nour confirmed that Al-Kaabi was arrested outside Iran, and transferred inside the country. Iranian television reported that Tehran managed to lure Al-Kaabi to Turkey, arrest him there and transfer him to Iran, in cooperation with the Turkish security services.”  See “Iran arrests head of separatist group in special operation with Turkey,” AMN, November 2, 2020.

“Proxy Wars: How Turkey and Iran Employ Militias Abroad,” Maya Carlin, National Interest, November 2, 2020.

“FBI: Iranian hackers obtained voter data from at least 1 US state,” Ryan Morgan, American Military News, November 2, 2020.

“Iran announces joint Saudi oil field project in the Gulf,” Middle East Monitor, November 2, 2020.  “The Forouzan field is shared with the Saudi Marjan field and is located approximately 100 kilometres from the south of the Iranian island of Kharg. Iran’s share in the joint field is 11per cent while Saudi Arabia owns 89 per cent. The oil fields are some of the oldest oil and gas fields in the Gulf region. The Forouzan was discovered in 1966 and the Marjan, a year later. The latest state of Iran’s extraction from the Forouzan oil field, according to a research paper published this year by the University of Kashan, is about 40,000 barrels per day, while the Saudi company Aramco which owns the Marjan, extracts over 405,000 barrels of crude oil per day from its part of the field.”

More pressure on a hostage and on the UK.  “Britain says it’s appalled by Iran’s new case against Zaghari-Ratcliffe,” Reuters, November 2, 2020.

“Iran’s daily tally of coronavirus deaths hit a record high of 434 on Sunday, the health ministry announced, and the head of a top medical body said the actual toll was at least three times higher than the official count. The deaths, announced by Health Ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari on state TV, take the official toll to 35,298 in the Middle East’s worst-hit country. She said the number of confirmed coronavirus cases increased by 7,719 to 620,491. The head of Iran’s Medical Council, Mohammadreza Zafarghandi, doubted the accuracy of the official toll and warned that Iran had reached a “catastrophic mortality rate”, the Students News Agency ISNA reported on Sunday. “The official death toll is only based on the number of registered patients,” Zafarghandi told ISNA. “Through field surveys in hospitals and cemeteries, our Council has obtained a figure at least three times higher than the official death toll.””  See “Iran’s daily COVID-19 deaths hit record; health official says true toll worse,” Parisa Hafezi, Reuters, November 1, 2020.

“Ahwazi group claims Iran ‘kidnapped’ former leader, Habib Asyud, in Turkey.”  See “Iran arrests leading Arab separatist figure abroad,” Kaamil Ahmed, Middle East Eye, November 1, 2020.

“Iran Imposes Travel Restrictions as Virus Deaths Hit Record,” Bourse and Bazaar, November 1, 2020.  “Iran on Sunday said it will restrict travel to the cities hit hardest by the novel coronavirus, state TV said, amid a record high of daily COVID-19 deaths. The measure takes effect at Monday midday and will last until Friday, the broadcaster reported, citing an order by the interior ministry. The restrictions prevent residents from leaving and non-residents from entering based on vehicle plate numbers, but do not apply to public transportation, it added. It applies to the capitals of 25 provinces considered “red”—the highest level on Iran’s colour-coded risk scale—and includes the capital Tehran with more than 8 million residents. Violators will be fined, the order added.”

Trick, not a Treat.  “Iranian hackers who posed as the Proud Boys accessed voter data in one state, feds say,” Donie O’Sullivan and Alex Marquardt, CNN, October 31, 2020.

Iraq won’t invade.  The GCC won’t.  Israel certainly won’t.  The U.S. won’t invade?  Why build up the supply of heavy armored vehicles?  Iranian citizens know.  “Iran’s Army Receives Over 500 Heavy Armored Vehicles,” Orkhan Jalilov, Caspian News, October 31, 2020.

“Iran and Hezbollah have war plans for the Golan Heights,” Alex Fishman, Ynet, October 31, 2020.

“Iranian hackers who posed as the Proud Boys accessed voter data in one state, feds say,” Donie O’Sullivan and Alex Marquardt, CNN, October 31, 2020.

“Iran criticises Minsk group’s peace efforts over Nagorno-Karabakh,” Al Jazeera, October 30, 2020.

“Iranian weapons exports will have lasting effects on regional dynamics,” Kyra Rauschenbach, Critical Threats, October 30, 2020.

This is happening in the U.S. and overseas.  “Pentagon leaders targeted by potential threats linked to killing of Iranian Gen. Soleimani,” Caitlin McFall, Fox News, October 30, 2020.

“Australia’s Kylie Moore-Gilbert returned to Iran’s Evin prison,” Al Jazeera, October 30, 2020.

The arms were from the Quds Force arm of the IRGC and headed for militant groups in Yemen.  “US touts largest ever seizure of Iranian oil and weapons,” Nicole Gaouette and Kylie Atwood, CNN, October 29, 2020.

415 died on Oct. 28.  “Iran records highest Covid-19 deaths for 2nd consecutive day,” IANS, Mangalorean, October 29, 2020.

Two quotes to consider from this story.  “Macron has defended secular values following the killing of 47-year-old schoolteacher Samuel Paty, who was beheaded after showing cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad in his classroom after allowing any students who might be offended to leave. Macron has paid tribute to Paty, saying he was “killed because he was teaching students about freedom of speech, the freedom to believe and to not believe.””  And, “Khamenei’s tweets were met with criticism, including by Jonathan Greensblatt, the national director and chief executive officer of the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), who said, “Holocaust denialism is hate, pure & simple.” “Why is Khamenei allowed to consistently espouse anti-Semitism that clearly violates Twitter policy on hate speech?” added Greensblatt, who is the grandson of a Holocaust survivor who escaped Nazi Germany.”  See “Iran’s Supreme Leader Criticized For Equating Cartoons Of Prophet Muhammad With Holocaust Denial,” Golnaz Esfandiari, RFE/RL, October 29, 2020.

“Iran Amends Law to Allow Imports to Be Funded With Cryptocurrency,” Coindesk, October 29, 2020.

Announced as planned for the port city of Jask–remember that many announced projects to not come to fruition.  “Iran proposes building largest commercial port east of Strait of Hormuz,” Middle East Memo, October 29, 2020.

“Iran tries to mediate cease-fire between Azerbaijan, Armenia,” Al Monitor, October 29, 2020.