Iran Nation or Cause

No casualties again.  How can these explosions be managed so that no deaths are occurring?  In addition to this one at a power plant, a second fire occurred at a cellophane factory in Sheikh Hassan.  “Blast at power plant in Iran’s central Isfahan province – IRNA,” Jerusalem Post, Reuters, July 19, 2020.

Zarif probably laid a wreath at the site of the killing of the Quds Force head terrorist.  The article does say, “Upon his arrival, Zarif paid a visit to the site where Soleimani was killed.”  See “Iran FM visits Baghdad ahead of Iraq PM trip to Saudi Arabia,” Samya Kullab and Qassim Abdul-zahra, AP, July 19, 2020.

This op-ed explains self-defense that is allowed under international law in response to Iran’s nuclear weapons program.  “Acting against Iran,” Michael Calvo, op-ed, Israel Hayom, July 19, 2020.

“Iran’s Zarif in Iraq on his first visit since Soleimani’s killing,” Al Jazeera, July 19, 2020.

Great logic.  “US Concern over Tehran-Beijing Deal Shows It’s Right Thing to Do: Iran,” IFP Editorial Staff, July 19, 2020.

Another candidate for Quote of the Day.  The Taliban has no office in Iran, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.  Taliban “may have established a council” in the northeastern Iranian city of Mashhad, “but this does not concern us,” he told Press TV.  So I guess a council is not an office.  Let’s ask the Taliban.  See “Taliban has no office in Iran: Iranian Foreign Ministry,” Xinhua, July 19, 2020.

“Iran suspends execution of three men linked to protests, lawyer says,” Reuters, July 19, 2020. “Rights activists had said the death sentences were aimed at intimidating future protesters. With hardship mounting because of U.S. sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic, Iran’s clerical rulers have been trying to prevent a revival of anti-government protests that took place in November last year, when hundreds are believed to have been killed in the worst street violence since the 1979 revolution. Last Thursday, security forces fired tear gas to disperse demonstrators in the southwestern city of Behbahan, witnesses said, who were protesting against the economic problems but also the death sentences against the three men. The Farsi hashtag “Don’t execute” was tweeted millions of times last week. In a rare acknowledgement of popular dissent, government spokesman Ali Rabiei wrote a commentary in Saturday’s Iran newspaper, saying that the tweets were “a civil action by citizens (trying) to be heard”.”

“Lawmaker Says Giving Control Of Iran Islands To China Scrapped After Popular Outcry,” Radio Farda, July 19, 2020.

“Father Of Slain Protester Opposing Deal With China Taken To Jail In Southern Iran,” Radio Farda, July 19, 2020.

Finally.  “Iran sends black box of Ukrainian plane to France,” BBC, July 18, 2020.

India continues to find itself more isolated as Iran moves toward China and its worldview and practices.  “After rail, Iran set to drop India from key gas project,” Pakistan Today, July 18, 2020.

“Iranian Hackers Accidentally Exposed Training Videos,” Akshaya Asokan, Bank Info Security, July 18, 2020.

“In latest in series of blasts, explosion reported at Iranian oil pipeline,” Times of Israel, July 18, 2020.

Iran has 83 million people for reference to this headline, and the official fatality number is almost 14,000.  “Iran pres. says estimated 25 mil. Iranians infected with coronavirus,” Kyodo News, July 18, 2020.

Citizens converged after being called on social media to each other to complain about the terrible economy and three death sentences that were upheld by the Judiciary.  Iranian security forces responded to Shiraz, Rasht, and Behbahan.  “Iranians Angered by Faltering Economy Stage Rare Protest,” Michael Lipin and Arash Sigarchi, VOA, Updated July 17, 2020.  And see “Iran police vow to deal ‘decisively’ with any further protests,” Al Jazeera, July 17, 2020.

“Iranian security forces clash with protesters chanting ‘No Gaza, no Lebanon’,” July 17, 2020.

“The Iranian regime has made the decision to respond militarily to what it believes is a series of Israeli and American attacks on its soil, Kuwaiti newspaper Al Rai reported on Thursday. “Tehran’s decision to retaliate to the Israeli and American attacks has already been made and will be implemented at the right time and place,” sources in Lebanon told Al Rai, which traditionally propagates anti-Zionist and anti-Israel views. The report also said that Iran and its regional allies were planning for the possibility of an “all-out war.” The statements, which haven’t been corroborated elsewhere, ….”  So, Al Rai seems to be the only “source” that Israel is responsible, but its sources are annonymous.  Thus, there is not yet evidence.  See “Report: Iran has already decided to strike back against Israel,” Neta Bar, Israel Hayom, July 17, 2020.

“The senior spokesman of Iran’s Armed Forces has insisted that only eight Iranian servicemen have been killed in Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military bases in Syria in recent years. An Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC)-linked news agency, Fars, cited Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi as denying on Thursday, July 16, reports that “hundreds” or even “thousands” of Iranians had been killed in Israeli airstrikes in war-torn Syria. The IRGC Brigadier General maintained that only eight Iranian military personnel have been killed in Israeli raids. The airstrikes attributed to Israel started after the civil war broke out in 2011 in Syria and Iranian forces were dispatched to help the Assad regime and thy began establishing themselves in the country.” See “Iran Military Insists Only Eight Servicemen Killed In All Israeli Air Raids In Syria,” Radio Farda, July 17, 2020.

“Iran’s Currency Falls To A New Low Of 240,000 Against The US Dollar,” Radio Farda, July 17, 2020.

“In Somalia, Iran Is Replicating Russia’s Afghan Strategy,” Muhammad Fraser-Rahim and Mo Fatah, FP, July 17, 2020.  Iranian forces are supporting al-Shabab and allegedly offering bounties to attack the U.S. military and other foreign forces in Somalia and in the region.  Iran is making money on arms sales and oil sales and working to spread the Shia Crescent.  “Using financial inducements as their means for recruitment, Iran has a proxy network in Somalia and uses facilitators to provide support to violent extremist organizations to counter the influence of the United States and Persian Gulf states. Iran has a proxy network in Somalia and uses facilitators to provide support to violent extremist organizations to counter the influence of the United States and Persian Gulf states, including using Somalia to funnel weapons to Houthi rebels in Yemen and to transit weapons to other countries such as Kenya, Tanzania, South Sudan, Mozambique, and Central African Republic. Iranian engagement on the African continent is not new. In particular, Iranian religious groups and intelligence agencies have worked for decades to establish missionary and influence operations on the African continent. These include providing religious scholarship opportunities throughout sub-Saharan Africa and in the Horn region competing and countering Gulf states’ influences. Furthermore, these educational efforts have allowed Africans to study in Shiite religious centers such as Qom in Iran, and then go back to their countries to engage in both direct and indirect proselytizing in favor of Tehran’s activities, making many of them witting or unwitting accomplices to those pursuing Tehran’s intelligence objectives in the region. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the main Iranian organization in Somalia, and its Quds Force has established relations with extremist groups and criminal networks, according to Somali officials. Somali police and finance ministry officials claim the Quds Force uses these networks to smuggle Iranian oil into Somalia and then sell cheap oil across Africa to subvert U.S. sanctions, with some of the proceeds used to support militants in Yemen and Somalia.”

A fascinating (and long) article about the lengths to which Iran goes to hide illicit oil and cargo shipments.  One moral of the story—it is much more expensive to run a criminal enterprise than to participate in the open market.  See “How a tanker and its crew that ‘disappeared’ for 10 days ended up in Iran,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, July 16, 2020.

In multiple Iranian cities during the past two days, there have been protests against the government’s particular use of the death penalty.  “Iranians Rally In Support Of Protesters Sentenced To Death,” RFE/RL, July 16, 2020.

“Will Iranian sea corridor compete with Suez Canal?,” Mohammad Hanafi, Al Monitor, July 16, 2020.  Good ideas pick up steam.  This idea won’t.  The Iranian Chabahar Free Trade Zone Organization announced July 5 that trade connections to Mumbai, Hamburg, and St. Petersburg will be made through Astrakhan (in Russia), Anzali and Chabahar (in Iran), and Nhava Sheva (in India) instead of the Suez Canal.  The notion of an Iranian International Transport Corridor dates to 2000 when the three countries signed a joint agreement to start establishing a transport route that includes maritime, land, and rail lines.  The route, he said, aims to transport goods and shipments from India and Iran to countries surrounding the Caspian Sea, and from there to Russia and Germany and vice versa over 4,660 miles.  Transport via this corridor, however, goes through four stages, so the cost is four times that of the Suez Canal.  And it takes 19 days to directly ship a container from India to Hamburg through Suez, compared to 20 plus days via the Iranian Corridor.  So, the Suez Canal is cheaper and faster.  This idea appears “dead in the water.”

“Brother Of Anti-Hijab Activist Sentenced To Eight Years In Iran,” Radio Farda, July 16, 2020.

What do you say?  The title and theme are so far removed from reality—So, what do you say?  The IRIB has announced it will show a 40-episode documentary starting in August on Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani.  The documentary will be titled “Commander of Peace.”  See “’Commander of Peace’: Iran produces documentary on Qasem Soleimani,” Jerusalem Post, July 16, 2020.

“Big Leak Reveals Iran Targeting US Military With Super Speedy Google Account Hacks,” Forbes, July 16, 2020.

“United Nations’ (UN) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief said ‘things will be bad’ for Iran inspectors are denied access to suspected nuclear sites by the end of July, i24 News reported.”  See “IAEA: ‘Things will be bad’ for Iran if inspectors denied access,” Middle East Monitor, July 16, 2020.

If this is a sabotage campaign, it is amazing.  But maybe the source of animosity is not a country but a group.  Or from within the government.  It is time to think beyond Israel and the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.  “Bushehr port: Seven ships ablaze in latest Iran mystery fires,” BBC, July 15, 2020.

A new report that shows how the Quds Force operates in Syria under and through various organizations (smuggling weapons, arms, and cash) and calls on the U.S. to designate three organizations as terror organizations.  The report was authored by Yossi Mansharof, an arms tracking expert and an Iran and Shiite analyst at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and at the Alma Center.  The three organizations are the Iranian Red Crescent, the Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation, and the Reconstruction Organization of the Holy Shrines. … “Iran is making sophisticated and cynical use of associations, charities and humanitarian organizations to export the Islamic revolution,” he added. “It has two objectives: to make strategic regions across Syria as Shi’ite as possible, and to turn Syria into a forward base for Israel, which would provide access for Hezbollah and meet Iran’s aspiration to reach the Mediterranean coast.””  See “How Iran uses charities and humanitarian organizations as cover to export its revolution,” Yaakov Lappin, Cleveland Jewish News, July 15, 2020.

“Iran’s Ghaani says ‘Zionist regime’ has difficult days ahead,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, July 15, 2020.

“Iran’s impregnable regime,” Micah Levinson, op-ed, Washington, Examiner, July 15, 2020.  Levinson takes the position that “Iran’s Islamist regime is thoroughly entrenched. American strategy for curbing Tehran’s destabilizing activities, which include attacks on Saudi oil-processing facilities and support for militias across the Middle East, should therefore prioritize containment. That consists of limiting Iran’s access to advanced weapons and the cash necessary to bankroll its regional proxies.”  Where I would differ with Levinson and Hong (below, and not his real name) is limiting the West to accepting containment for another bad actor.  And in the process ignoring the wishes of the people and the countries near Iran.

 “No, Iran isn’t going to be a Chinese client state,” Brendon Hong, op-ed, IranSource, July 15, 2020.

The entire article is quoted here for the shock value.  “A radio presenter and expert was lashed 74 times on June 27 for disclosing information on “receiving a bribe in one of the oil transactions”. Sajjad Sadeghi was arrested by the Ministry of Intelligence last year for disclosing information about receiving a bribe in an oil deal and was sentenced to three sentences of 74 lashes upon the complaint filed by a member of the regime’s parliament, Hossein Afarideh. According to the verdict issued by the Criminal Court of Shahid Ghodoosi in Tehran, Sajjad Sadeghi was lashed 74 times, according to Article 134 of the Islamic Penal Code, which allows defendants to be punished with the maximum sentence in cases involving multiple convictions. The MP Hossein Afarideh had received a house in Tehran’s Zaferanieh neighbourhood and an apartment in Dubai for brokering an oil deal. The appeals court was supposed to be held in July 2020, but Branch 31 of the Tehran Appeal Court was held in absentia in June this year and convicted Mr. Sadeghi. Sajjad Sadeghi has been banned from working for the Radio and Television since June 2019, as well as writing or talking about political issues. Iran recently moved down three places to 173 as one of the worst violators of press right in the latest Reporters Without Borders (RSF) 2020 press freedom index. The RSF report says Iran has been one of the world’s most repressive countries for journalists for the past 40 years. According to the press freedom group’s report, at least 860 journalists and citizen-journalists were imprisoned or executed in the last four decades.”  See the article at “Radio Presenter Lashed For Disclosing Info Against Iran MP,” Iran-HRM, July 15, 2020.

“For the first time, an accredited Iranian diplomat – alleged also to be a senior official in the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) – is going on trial directly accused of involvement in terror on European soil. A court in Antwerp on Wednesday confirmed charges of “attempted murder of a terrorist nature” and “taking part in the actions of a terrorist organization” against Assadollah Assadi” and three co-accused.  See “Iranian Diplomat Goes on Trial for Foiled Bomb Plot in Europe,” Patrick Goodenough, CNS, July 15, 2020.

Quote of the Day candidate.  “It is about safeguarding international law and multilateralism,” Pres. Rouhani said in reference to the October expiration of the Iran arms embargo.  Of course, Iran’s sale of weapons for nefarious purposes is the antithesis of the peace aimed for by international law and multilaterialism.  “Rouhani warns against extension of Iran arms embargo,” Al Monitor, July 15, 2020.

Iran is allowing itself to be used by China to hold back India.  “Four years after India and Iran signed an agreement to construct a rail line from Chabahar port to Zahedan, along the border with Afghanistan, the Iranian government has decided to proceed with the construction on its own, citing delays from the Indian side in funding and starting the project.”  India has hesitated because of U.S. sanctions and the instable situation in Iran, but has increased its work at the Chabahar port (which China wants to push India out of).  “The development comes as China finalises a massive 25-year, $400 billion strategic partnership deal with Iran, which could cloud India’s plans.”  See “Iran drops India from Chabahar rail project, cites funding delay,” Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu, July 14, 2020.

Quote of the Day.  Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s permanent representative to the IAEA, said, “Resolution was prompted by the fact that Iran had difficulties in providing access to the IAEA inspectors to two locations where nuclear activities could have taken place about 20 years ago.”  See “IAEA resolution against Iran ‘only makes things more complicated’: Ulyanov,” Tehran Times, July 14, 2020.

Consider the company that you keep.  “Abbas Mousavi, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, said they were happy to see the opening of Hagia Sophia for Islamic worship.  Mousavi commented saying: “For the opening of Hagia Sophia for worship, which was accepted with satisfaction by the people of Turkey and Muslims, we also felt joy.”  …  Maulana Masood Azhar, leader of Pakistani terror group Jaish-e-Mohammad, said he welcomed the conversion of Hagia Sophia.  The Palestinian terrorist organisation Hamas congratulated Turkey for its decision to convert Hagia Sophia into a mosque.  “Opening of Hagia Sophia to prayer is a proud moment for all Muslims,” said Rafat Murra, head of international press office of Hamas, in a written statement as reported on Greek City Times.”  See “Iran ‘felt joy’ when Hagia Sophia was converted,” Paul Antonopoulos, Greek City Times, July 14, 2020.

Tehran is paid $133 million a year by Qatar for use of airspace due to the blockade by Saudi Arabia.  “UN aviation ruling could deny Iran hundreds of millions of dollars,” Eric Shawn, Fox News, July 14, 2020.

Iran has executed a former employee, Reza Asgari, of the defense ministry who was convicted of spying for the CIA, passing on information about Iran’s missiles threatened and used against other countries.  See “Iran executes defense ministry staffer as alleged CIA spy,” AP, July 14, 2020.

“Iran Rebuilds U.S. Navy Global Hawk UAV It Shot Down,” H.I. Sutton, Forbes, July 14, 2020.

The U.S. sanctions against Iran will result in Chinese businesses getting sanctioned if those two countries sign the proposed 25-year agreement.  “Oil tanker wanted by US is hijacked, now anchored near Iran: reports,” Greg Norman, Fox News, July 14, 2020.

“China and Iran are reported to have quietly drafted a comprehensive military and trade partnership. The deal would make way for about $400 billion worth of Chinese investments into Iran’s key sectors, such as energy and infrastructure, over the next 25 years. According to US officials, the agreement could also make way for Chinese military bases in Iran, fundamentally changing the region’s geopolitics.”  See “The China-Iran strategic partnership, and how it can change geopolitics in the Middle East,” The Print, Srijan Shukla, July 14, 2020.

Just as Libya weaseled its way into the communications networks of multiple African states some years ago, I wonder if China is aiming to do the same thing under its proposed agreement with Iran.  Seeing this article made me wonder how much the agreement will use Huawei to spy on Iran?  The key sentence from this article, and what led PM Johnson and his government to change their mind regarding the UK, is “Having previously advised ministers that the risk from Huawei could be mitigated, UK intelligence chiefs warned Mr Johnson that they could no longer be confident that new kit used by the Chinese company was secure.”  See the article at “UK orders ban of new Huawei equipment from end of year,” George Parker, Nic Fildes, and Helen Warrell, Financial Times, July 14, 2020.

These were on Monday.  “Iran reports 179 more fatalities from coronavirus,” Muhammet Kursun, AA, July 14, 2020.

“Iran says it has executed Iranian agent linked to CIA,” WHBL, Thomson Reuters, July 14, 2020.  According to Iran, Reza Asgari, while serving at the defense ministry, had sold the CIA information about Iran’s missile program.

“A judicial official in Iran has threatened that knowingly spreading the coronavirus should be punishable by death, based on the Islamic principle of an eye for an eye. A local news website quoted the Deputy of the Justice Minister for Human Rights and International affairs, Mahmoud Abbasi as saying, “Someone who is fully aware of his infection and without wearing a mask sneezes and coughs…spreads the coronavirus to others and ultimately causes their death. This means deliberate murder and is subject to Qisas”. In Islamic law, relatives of a murder victim can demand Qisas, or an eye for an eye. Abbasi called for hanging offenders.”  See “Iran Official Says Those Who Knowingly Spread Coronavirus Must Be Hanged,” Radio Farda, July 14, 2020.

Of note from this piece, the Leader continues his complete absence from public life, protecting himself from Covid.  He is medically fragile.  Also, the logistics for impeachment would about 9 months, and Rouhani will be automatically out of office in 10.  Also, the Leader called the parliament “the strongest and the most revolutionary Iranian parliament of all times” and said the turnout in its election was acceptable.  But the Majles election in Feb. had the lowest turnout in 40 years, with a national turnout of 42%.  See “Khamenei Strikes A Balance, Telling Iran’s Parliament Not To Impeach Rouhani,” Radio Farda, July 12, 2020.

ANOTHER explosion, this one outside of Mashhad.  Cheetahs of the Homeland strike again.  “Explosion as fire breaks out at Iranian industrial complex,” Reuters, July 13, 2020.

Lebanon is having a financial meltdown which marks the biggest threat to stability since the 1975-90 civil war.  For the second sermon in a row, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai stressed the importance of Lebanon’s neutrality, which is implicit criticism of the heavily armed Hezbollah over its support for Iran in conflicts with Sunni-led Gulf Arab states.  The President of Lebanon must be drawn in this sectarian system of government from the Maronite Church.  See “Lebanese Christian cleric seen to criticize Hezbollah, allies over crisis,” Reuters, July 12, 2020.

“Iran-backed Houthis fire ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, July 13, 2020.

Iran, PIJ, and Hamas are all threatened in their terror strategies by expansion of Israel and its political system.  Hamas and Islamic Jihad are working right now to have as good relations as possible with Tehran, and Iran has “announced that it will provide all necessary support to the Palestinians facing the Israeli annexation plan of the West Bank.”  That support is never in the form of diplomacy.  See “Iran offers unconditional support to Hamas, Islamic Jihad,” Rasha Abou Jalal, Al Monitor, July 13, 2020.

It is not reassuring to read this story about Iran in China’s media.  The Iranian army aviation will be soon equipped with missiles with ranges of 20 km and 100 km, Iranian Army Aviation Chief Yousof Ghorbani announced.  “Iran’s army aviation to be soon equipped with new missiles: commander,” Xinhua, July 13, 2020.

Another sign of America’s geopolitical foes aligning.  “China-Iran deal envisions massive investments from Beijing,” Dave Lawler, Axios, July 13, 2020.

Will Iran act as a normal country, or as a revolutionary?  “US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo has said the US will back Lebanon as long as it carries out reforms and is “not subordinate to Iran.”  Tehran is not about to allow the US to engineer a breach with its allies in Beirut ….”  See “Iran vulnerable to sabotage on several fronts,” Michael Jansen, op-ed, Gulf Today, July 13, 2020.

This arrest of a Quds spy occurred in February, 2019 in Germany but is now making news.  “Report: German intelligence captured Iran Quds’ Force spy,” Cleveland Jewish News, July 13, 2020.

“Fire breaks out at gas plant in eastern Iran,” Muhammet Kursun, AA, July 13, 2020.

One of those stories that feels like it can’t be true, and is fallacious.  “US ‘begged’ Iran not to retaliate for Soleimani killing, deputy FM says,” Aaron Reich, Jerusalem Post, July 13, 2020.

Under the 25-year agreement, Beijing and Tehran to increase military cooperation, including weapons development and intel sharing; China would receive discount oil.  “China ‘strategic accord’ could give Iran a $400 billion boost, up military ties,” Times of Israel, July 13, 2020.

“Iran’s Rohani Calls For Temporary Ban On Weddings, Funerals As Coronavirus Cases Rise,” RFE/RL, Payvand, July 13, 2020.

Rare video of Saudi air force in action, but not a rare of Iranian missiles and drones to attack the Kingdom.  “Saudi F-15 jet shoots down Iranian drones above Yemen,” Josh Spires, Drone DJ, July 13, 2020.

“Iranian forces have been constructing a new heavily fortified base at Abu Kamal in eastern Syria since the summer of 2019. Iran has been expanding its military presence in Deir ez Zor province since 2017, when an Iranian, Russian, and Syrian Arab Army offensive took control of the area from the Islamic State. The Abu Kamal base is the first military facility of this scale that Iranian forces have built in Syria. The base has a new level of fortification, featuring a 400-foot-long underground tunnel and housing facilities for thousands of troops. Its underground storage facilities and large personnel encampment represent a long-term effort to entrench Iranian-controlled military assets and personnel in Syria.”  See “Iran’s entrenchment of strategic infrastructure in Syria threatens balance of deterrence in the Middle East,” Kyra Rauschenbach, Critical Threats, July 13, 2020.

It just occurred to me, and I haven’t seen this anywhere publicly, that after the multiple explosions in Iran during the past month and the massive loss of many advanced centrifuges at Natanz that Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, must be under tremendous pressure.  He is the one person most responsible for the nuclear weapons project.  This article also reminds readers that since the U.S. exited the JCPOA in May 2018, Iran has breached the agreement multiple terms—“it has enriched uranium beyond the permitted level, refused to ship out its enriched uranium, accelerated research and development of advanced centrifuges, and denied the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access to two facilities.”  See “Did Iran Suffer a Nuclear Setback?,” Ray Takeyh, Council on Foreign Relations, July 13, 2020.

Iran has finally released an official from its Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization about the Jan. 8 Ukraine airliner shoot-down.  Iranian investigators blame a misaligned missile battery and miscommunication between soldiers and their IRGC commanders.  Remember, the shootdown happened the same night Iran after launched a ballistic missile attack targeting U.S. soldiers in Iraq, and Iran was expecting the U.S. to attack Tehran in response.  The U.S. made no retaliatory attack.  Iran’s civilians (and Ukraine’s civilians, and other country’s civilians who lost loved ones) know that mismanagement and corruption and poor military procedures have combined to shoot down a commercial airliner with a military missile.  But there is a little bit of good news—the Russian-made Tor system, the SA-15, does work.  See “Iran blames errors for jet shootdown,” AP, July 12, 2020.

“Iran reports 194 more fatalities from coronavirus,” Middle East Memo, July 12, 2020.

“Iran Guards Deny Suing Journalists For Army Interview Critical Of IRGC,” Radio Farda, July 12, 2020.

“Media Report: US Frees Convicted Terror Financier as Part of Deal with Iran,” VOA, July 13, 2020.

“Fire Breaks Out at Petrochemical Facility in Southwest Iran,” Reuters, Haaretz, July 12, 2020.  A fire broke out at a facility belonging to the Shahid Tondgooyan Petrochemical Company in southwest Iran but was quickly contained, the official IRNA news agency reported on Sunday,

“Iran’s President Calls for Ban on Weddings, Wakes to Halt Virus Spread,” Reuters, July 12, 2020.

“As U.S. Moves To Exit Afghanistan, Rivals Prepare To Swoop In,” RFE/RL, Frud Bezhan, July 12, 2020.

Explosions were heard in western Tehran, Iran on July 10, and the explosions were followed by a power outage in the city suburbs.  “Iran: Explosion Reported In West Tehran, Official Deny Claims,” Shubham Bose, RepublicWorld.com, updated July 11, 2020.

The questions that enters our minds are two—Who is responsible for the suddenly accelerated attacks against Iran, and What will Russia say and do in reaction?  See “35 Iran-backed terrorists die in an airstrike in Syria,” Mohamad Misto, Ethem Emre Ozcan, AA, July 11, 2020.

“What the world is witnessing right now is someone hitting Iranian nuclear and conventional weapons and IRGC facilities practically at will.”  Whether Israel, MEK, U.S., Saudi Arabia, or others, Iran’s protector power and investigatory power are greatly diminished and unable to respond.  See “How have Iran’s intelligence forces broken down in face of explosions?,” Yonah Jeremy Bob, Jerusalem Post, July 11, 2020.

“Iran sought illegal goods for nuke program – German federal intel,” Benjamin Weinthal, Jerusalem Post, July 11, 2020.

Good for new PM Kadhimi of Iraq, recognizing the corruption on both sides of the border.  Not what the Regime wants to hear, though.  “At Border with Iran, Iraq PM Vows to fight Customs Corruption,” Asharq al-Awsat, July 11, 2020.

“The Shadow Army of Iran’s Regime Extends Its Activities in Germany, Authorities Warn,” Pooya Stone, Iran Focus, July 11, 2020.

“Chabahar to become Iran’s 3rd trade hub soon,” Tehran Times, July 11, 2020.

Beyond the President/FM negotiating treaties and international agreements, there is of course the Supreme Leader that is the most important actor.  The IRGC certainly weighs in, the Majlis has a public role, and the Guardian Council will also be part of the review process.  See “Guardian Council backs Iran-China partnership plan,” Tehran Times, July 11, 2020.

Interesting points made by the main U.S. rep on Iran and Venezuela, and reflective of what other states in the Middle East and Latin America say.  Brian Hook said, “This is the price the regime pays for acting like an outlaw regime.” The Islamic Republic and Venezuela he said, “are rich countries that are governed by thieves”.  He also said that when someone visits Arab Gulf states and Israel it becomes clear that “the Iranian people have been robbed of decades of progress”.  “He added that the difference is the Gulf Arab states and Israel are “investing in their own people” while Iran “is squandering” its resources on terrorism and anti-Semitism.”  See “US Senior Diplomat Says Iran And Venezuela ‘Are Governed By Thieves’,” Radio Farda, July 11, 2020.

So we know that Iran’s military can defend Tehran from commercial jets.  Now we learn more about the recently announced joint cooperation agreement between Iran and Syria.  Wonder why the Russian S-300s aren’t effective or used?  “Citing “informed sources from Iran and Syria”, the daily said that the agreement has two military and political parts. It said the most important thing in the military part is for Iran to provide Syria with its advanced air defense systems such as the Bavar-373 and Khordad-3 missile systems, which means that the two countries have decided to change the rules of engagement in Syrian airspace and to respond to the repeated Israeli raids on Syrian soil. Bavar-373 is an Iranian-made long-range surface-to-air system, which was formally unveiled on August 22, 2019. The system is manufactured by the Iranian Defense Ministry. Khordad-3 is an indigenous air defense system, which has an operational range of between 50 and 75 kilometers. Iran has used the Khordad-3 system in the downing of the U.S. Global Hawk drone on June 20, 2019.”  See “Iran to deploy two air defense missile systems to Syria: report,” Tehran Times, July 11, 2020.

“Iran denounced for torture, abuse of prisoners, and unfair trials,” Christopher Hamill-Stewart, Arab News, July 11, 2020.

“[E]xtreme internal and external pressure”—that is the phrase that bears repeating.  “Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at Washington-based think tank the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the newspaper [Times of Israel] that the latest attacks had led to “extreme internal and external pressure” on Iran as it grapples with an economic crisis and punishing US sanctions.”  Undoubtedly this is because Iran’s intelligence services cannot determine who committed the sabotage related to the Natanz and other explosions in the past two weeks.  Iran suddenly seems unable to defend itself.  See “Israel’s alleged Natanz strike ‘as complex as Stuxnet,’ a major blow to Iran,” Times of Israel, July 10, 2020.

“Iran government squeezed over ‘secretive’ deal with China,” Al Monitor, July 10, 2020.

“Probe reveals Pakistani crime boss spied for Iran in 2014,” Naimat Khan, Arab News, July 10, 2020.

“Iran Executes Man For Drinking Alcohol – Rights Monitor,” Radio Farda, July 10, 2020.

“Israel Will Never Let Iran Improve Syria’s Decrepit Air Defenses,” Paul Iddon, op-ed, Forbes, July 10, 2020.

A 31% increase in trade.  Russia is a facilitator, or if you prefer an enabler.  “Russian Exports To Iran Continue To Grow Despite Decline In Tehran’s Trade,” Radio Farda, July 10, 2020.

“The annual report of the German Federal Intelligence Service warned against Iran’s increasing use of IT infrastructures to access sensitive information with the aim to circumvent sanctions. … The intelligence report also spoke of widespread activity by Iranian intelligence and the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force within German soil, adding that espionage operations were conducted against Jewish, pro-Jewish and Israeli targets. … It “pointed to the Islamic Center in Hamburg, which is considered “the most important representation of Iran in Germany”, in addition to the Iranian embassy. The report said that the center has established a national network of contacts within many Shiite mosques and societies and exerts a significant influence on them.”  See “German Intelligence Warns of Iranian Cyber Spying,” Raghida Bahnam, Asharq Al-Awsat, July 10, 2020.