Iran Nation or Cause

If you know “How to speak Trump,” you know that this headline is not absolute but part of the negotiating process.  It would also help the reporter to listen to all of Pres. Trump’s comments for context and clues.  The one thing we don’t know is who is the U.S. negotiating with, but we know that it is happening.  See “Trump: Strait of Hormuz Will Be Jointly Controlled By “Me And The Next Ayatollah, Whoever That Is”,” RCP, 3-23-26.

“Trump says strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure paused for 5 days amid US-Iran talks,” Politico, 3-23-26.

“Trump signals end to conflict after ‘strong talks’ with Iran, denied by Tehran,” i24, 3-23-26.

“Iran’s Top Diplomat Is the Face of a Defiant Regime,” WSJ, 3-23-26.

“U.S. negotiating with senior Iranian official:  Trump,” Axios, 3-23-26.  “Ghalibaf is a former general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps., a former mayor of Tehran and a close associate of the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Ghalibaf played a key role in managing Iran’s war effort during the 12-day war in June and is currently seen as the most senior civilian official in Iran’s decision-making circle. It was Ghalibaf who responded to Trump’s threat to bomb power plants with a similar threat to strike energy facilities in the region.”

“Gulf States Edge Toward Joining Fight Against Iran,” WSJ, 3-23-26.

“The Back-Channel Diplomacy Behind Trump’s U-Turn on Iran,” WSJ, 3-23-26.

“Iran built a vast camera network to control dissent. Israel used it to track targets, AP sources say,” PBS, 3-23-26.  Good reporting.

Yes, Pres. Trump will seemingly say two different things, or change after stating something.  But he’s dealing with a fluid situation, and with persons who are doing the same thing.  Like three dimensional chess.
“Bessent: The Iran Regime Is In Chaos, It’s Hitler’s Bunker–Hitler Is Dead, Himmler Is Dead, Goering Is Dead,” RCP, 3-22-26.

“Iran threatens to ‘completely’ close Strait of Hormuz and hit power plants after Trump ultimatum,” Politico, 3-22-26.  See also “Iran war updates: Iran warns of hits on energy sites after Trump threat,” Al Jazeera, 3-22-26.

It does seem to be over for Pahlavi.  As several of us have thought, he should have clearly held himself as the option only until elections could be held.  “The Distant Promise of Iran’s Would-Be King,” New Yorker, 3-22-26.  This is how the article concludes.  “Pahlavi remains the most prominent figure among the various dissidents jockeying for a leadership role in a post-Islamic Republic Iran. But, despite his seemingly good intentions, the pounding of Iran’s cities, the bombing of its palaces and cultural heritage sites, the food and gas shortages, the toxic smoke-filled skies, the dead schoolchildren, and the buzz of low-flying drones overhead all risk transforming his image from the leader of a unified future to the agent of his country’s ruin. In the ancient kingship tradition, endangering the empire would cause a king to lose his farr. No monarch in two and a half millennia of Persian history has invited a foreign power to attack the land of Iran, and nowhere in the long literary tradition of royal counsel—known as andarznameh, or “mirror for princes”—has an exception been made for the cause of ending domestic tyranny. This is the current predicament of Pahlavi, whose royal charisma has never been more on the line.”

I believe this is the first time any country has attempted to attack Diego.    “Two intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) were launched toward Diego Garcia, a strategically vital base used by both the United States and the United Kingdom. Officials said neither missile reached its target. One failed during flight, while a US naval vessel responded by firing an SM-3 interceptor at the second missile. It remains unclear whether that interceptor successfully destroyed the incoming threat.”  “Iran fires 2 ballistic missiles at US-UK base on Diego in first long-range strike attempt – report,” i24, 3-21-26.

“The Mojtaba mystery: CIA searches for signs of Iran’s new leader,” Axios, 3-21-26.

“IRGC aerospace chief faces internal criticism over battlefield absence,” Iran International, 3-21-26.

“Mojtaba Khamenei is likely controlled by IRGC, i24NEWS told,” i24, 3-21-26.  “The assessment in Jerusalem and DC is that Mojtaba is injured rather than deceased, and that he is functional.”

“A 19-year-old star wrestler and two other young men were hanged in Iran as regime continues with executions and crackdown on dissent during war,” Fortune, 3-21-26.

Iran successful in getting through Israel’s missile defenses and hitting Arad and Dimona.  “Iranian missiles sow panic in Israeli town,” Le Monde, 3-21-26.

“Iran fires missiles at remote U.K.-U.S. base, suggesting long-range capabilities it previously denied,” NBC, 3-21-26.  Uh oh.  “Diego Garcia is the same distance from Iran as much of central Europe.”  And Europe doesn’t for the most part have missile defense.

Some people might say Dead Man Walking, but I’ll say Dead Man Talking.  “Iranian message attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei accuses Israel of attacking Turkey, Oman to frame Tehran,” i24, 3-20-26.  “Iran’s new leader is yet to make a public appearance or even record a message in his own voice.”

This is an important step.  “Saudi Arabia agrees to open King Fahd Air Base in Taif to US for Iran operations,” Iran International, 3-20-26.

“Pro-Iran Ashab al-Kahf claims attack on US diplomatic facility in Iraq,” Iran International, 3-20-26.

“A Look at the Escalating Battle for the Strait of Hormuz,” NYT, 3-20-26.

“U.S. admin mulls land occupation of Kharg Island, i24NEWS told,” i24, 3-20-26.  “Occupying or besieging the island would cut Iran off from its primary source of oil revenue, depriving its already strained economy of vital income.”

“Israel: Top Iranian spokesperson killed,” The Hill, 3-20-26.  Not quite Baghdad Bob.

“Iranian missile strikes near Israeli nuclear facility, after Tehran says one of its sites targeted,” BBC, 3-20-26.  In the city of Dimona, not the nuclear facility, 47 hurt.

Read this story and then think.  Why else would they meet other than to preserve the nuclear weapons program?  If the uranium was simply for research or for electricity production, you would never see this sort of meeting under these circumstances and history.  Just wouldn’t.  “Tehran meeting struck by Israel likely tied to Iran’s atomic bomb plans,” Iran International, 3-20-26.  It is too bad this story is at the bottom of the page for March 20, but regular readers will see it.  The persons who assembled at the Feb. 28 meeting weren’t gathering for a picnic.  And Israel knew their identities.

“US F-35 Hit By Suspected Iranian Fire, Makes Emergency Landing: Report,” NDTV, 3-20-26.

“2 Men Charged With Spying for Iran on Britain’s Oldest Synagogue,” NYT, 3-19-26.

“How Strong Are Iran’s Strongmen?:  A Conversation With Stephen Kotkin,” Foreign Affairs, 3-19-26.

“Iran war updates: Israel refinery bombed as retaliatory strikes reverberate,” Al Jazeera, 3-19-26.

“There’s Only One Path to Victory in Iran,” NYT, 3-19-26.

“As Iran strikes Gulf energy sites, Trump says Israel won’t hit its gas field again—but US will if attacks go on,” Times of Israel, 3-19-26.

“Saudi Official Warns Patience Is Limited as Iranian Attacks Barrage Kingdom,” NYT, 3-19-26.

“QatarEnergy: Iran attacks remove nearly 1/5 of natural gas capacity for years – report,” i24, 3-19-26.  Qatar is realizing what about Iran?!  “QatarEnergy may declare force majeure on LNG supplies to Italy, Belgium, Korea and China, with losses of about $20 billion a year, Reuters reports.”

“Israel says Haifa oil refinery hit in Iranian missile attack,” Al Jazeera, 3-19-26.  Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen says ‘no significant damage’ reported after Iranian attack on Haifa oil refinery.

Inflammatory, please excuse the pun.  “Iran hits Qatar gas site in retaliation for Israeli energy strikes,” Iran International, 3-19-26.

Who is winning this war?  How to get the Regime the change?  Do leaders have a chance to surrender?  These are all answerable questions.  “The top Iranian officials killed since Iran war’s start,” Axios, 3-18-26.

Oil, shadow banking, weapons, rocket fuel, international ties.  “How China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive,” WSJ, 3-18-26.

“Iran Guards issue evacuation warning for petrochemical sites in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE,” Iran International, 3-18-26.

Well-done description of head of Intelligence Ministry.  “Spymaster Esmail Khatib killed: The man who turned dissent into espionage,” Iran International, 3-18-26.

The most detailed story I’ve seen on this.  “Russia Is Sharing Satellite Imagery and Drone Technology With Iran,” WSJ, 3-18-26.

“Now that the Iran war is here, the US must complete its mission,” Atlantic Council, 3-18-26.  “One senior Gulf official told me that his country has long known its greatest danger lies in Iran and not in Israel—a reality made obvious in recent days. The war’s inevitability was not due to any one factor, the officials told me. Rather, it was a cumulative consequence of a revolutionary regime that for nearly half a century built its power through murderous proxies, deadly missiles, nuclear aspirations, and relentless intimidation. Another senior Gulf official told me that his country had long argued to US negotiators from Democratic administrations that they were wrong to think that containing Iran’s nuclear capabilities was sufficient, as that failed to address the missiles and proxies that posed threats to its neighbors. In the telling of Gulf officials, the region has been living in a form of shadow war for years. Proxy conflicts, cyberattacks, and military strikes on energy infrastructure were part of a sustained campaign designed by Iran to test and erode the Gulf’s security architecture. Look at Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and increasingly Riyadh. They reflect a degree of religious tolerance, political moderation, and economic modernization that contrasts sharply with Iran’s theocracy. … Even as US forces pursue these objectives, Americans should not lose sight of the larger opportunity. This past week, one Trump administration official spoke to me about a longer-term vision harbored by some in the White House of a Middle East where not only moderate Arab and Israeli leaders normalize their relations—as they have done through the Abraham Accords—but a new Iranian government and Arab leaders eventually do so as well, ultimately leading to Israeli-Iranian normalization. At this time of war without an obvious end, that vision sounds fantastical. But it is seemingly impossible developments like this one that could become reality, serving both US interests and those of its regional partners, if the Trump administration sees through the mission in Iran that it has set out for itself.”

Who is making these decisions in Iran?  That is a very important question.  They are of such consequence, and of such specificity, that it seems like those persons “left behind” wouldn’t have the wherewithal to figure these strikes out.  “Iran threatens to strike Gulf energy facilities after South Pars attack,” Al Jazeera, 3-18-26.

Read the headline and understand what the situation is, as you’ll see in the article, and not what the headline implies.  “U.S. Intelligence Saw No Change in Iran’s Missile Capabilities Before War,” NYT, 3-18-26.

“Iran executes Swedish citizen accused of spying for Israel, judiciary says,” Iran International, 3-18-26.

“Iran continues exporting millions of barrels of oil as around 90 ships cross the Strait of Hormuz despite the war,” PBS, 3-18-26.  Good reporting by PBS.  “Vessels may be transiting “with at least some level of diplomatic intervention,” said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List. So, Iran may have “effectively created a safe corridor” with some ships passing close to the Iranian coast. Some vessels near or in the strait were found to have declared themselves as China-linked or with all Chinese crew to reduce risks of being attacked, based on an earlier analysis on ship tracking platform MarineTraffic. Analysts believe they were taking advantage of China’s closer ties with Iran. … The latest passages through the Strait of Hormuz show the strait was not simply “closed. It is better understood as closed selectively against some traffic, while still functioning for Iranian exports and a narrow set of tolerated non-Iranian movements.””

“Israel Is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts, One by One,” WSJ, 3-18-26.  “The advanced technology deployed by Israel and the penetration of Iranian society by its agents are combining to create the greatest threat yet to a deeply entrenched regime. But decades of military experience show it is difficult if not impossible to dislodge a government from the air. And if the Iranian regime survives, it could emerge emboldened and more dangerous. “It will be a clear victory for the regime with both predictable and unforeseen circumstances,” said Farzin Nadimi, an Iran-focused senior fellow with the Washington Institute, a U.S.-based think tank. … Israel’s security establishment believes Iran’s crumbling economy and popular anger have put the regime on an irreversible path to collapse whether it happens during the war or down the road. Ultimately, though, it is a job Israel and the U.S. are putting on the Iranian people.”

“Iran holds funerals for officials Larijani and Soleimani,” Al Jazeera, 3-18-26.

“Israel kills Iran intelligence minister Khatib in latest high-profile strike,” JPost, 3-18-26.

“Iran attacks Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City in retaliation for Israeli strikes,” i24, 3-18-26.

“How China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive,” WSJ, 3-18-26.  In the vein of the enemy of my enemy is my friend.  “From buying oil to selling rocket parts, China gives Iran critical support.”

“Iran war: What is happening on day 19 of US-Israel attacks?,” Al Jazeera, 3-18-26.

“Iran Maintains Near-Total Internet Blackout Amid U.S.-Israeli Strikes,” NYT, 3-18-26.  “As the war has stretched into its third week, the Iranian government has blocked internet access for most of its 92 million citizens.”

“Israel Eliminates Ali Larijani, Key Architect Behind Iranian Protest Massacres,” FDD, 3-17-26.

“Larijani’s death is more significant than that of supreme leader,” Telegraph, 3-17-26.

“Exclusive:  Iran’s New Supreme Leader rejects de-escalation proposals conveyed by intermediaries, Iran official says,” Reuters, 3-17-26.  Reuters does not attempt to confirm if the new Leader is injured or alive, it just passes through information from the Regime.  That is not reporting, that is almost just being a mouthpiece.  There is too much at stake to allow others to pretend to be in charge of the country.

“Israel targets Iranian intelligence minister overnight | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 3-17-26.

And Nowruz is coming up, a holiday the Regime has always had difficulty snuffing out or transforming to Shia beliefs and government control.  “’Celebrate, we are watching from the sky:’ Netanyahu aims to protect Iranians on Persian New Year,” i24, 3-17-26.

“300 IRGC Basij field agents killed in overnight strikes,” Iran International, 3-17-26.

“Son of FBI agent missing in Iran says US strikes are step toward justice,” Iran International, 3-17-26.  “Washington later concluded that Levinson likely died in Iranian custody, though his remains were never recovered. In 2020, the US Treasury Department sanctioned Iranian officials Mohammad Baseri and Ahmad Khazai for their roles in his disappearance.  Baseri’s name resurfaced this week when Iranian state media confirmed he was killed in the joint US‑Israeli airstrikes on Tehran that also hit Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sites and intelligence facilities. Learning of Baseri’s death, Levinson said, felt [his son] like a long‑overdue turning point, matched in significance only by the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on first day of war. “Khamenei had the power to free my dad at any point and chose not to. He knew what was happening and did nothing, so for our family, it’s been an emotional moment — but not one of grief.” His father, he said, “was a patriotic American who always wanted to make sure justice was served — not just in the United States, but around the world.” The recent strikes, he believes, “may finally hold some of those responsible accountable.” Levinson has spent nearly twenty years seeking answers and helping other families do the same. He was instrumental in advancing the Robert Levinson Hostage Recovery and Hostage‑Taking Accountability Act, which strengthened US tools for responding to hostage situations abroad. From those efforts, he’s come to see patterns in how authoritarian states operate — and how they collapse. “There are people who know exactly what happened to my dad,” he said. As pressure mounts on the regime, “maybe some will defect or reveal the truth. … “There’s still a 25 multimillion‑dollar US reward for information about his case.” The strikes, he said, could finally create the conditions where long‑hidden information emerges. Although the family continues to grieve, Levinson said they also feel a renewed sense of purpose. “Justice is coming,” he said. “We’re not going to forget. Those involved still have the chance to do the right thing.” … “Now, with the regime shaken and the world watching, maybe it’s finally time for justice — and for freedom for the Iranian people.””

I am sorry that Joe Kent lost his wife in Syria.  He claims in his resignation letter that the Iraq War was “manufactured” by Israel, and that the current conflict in Iran (but not the June 2025 fighting?) was also manipulated by Israel.  I don’t have enough information from open sources nor over time to give more insight, but I will note that I’m not seeing much commentary or information in the press about Kent’s personal loss and Israel’s actions and how they are tied together.  Nor have I ever heard that Israel was responsible for Pres. Bush’s decision in 2003 in Iraq.  See “What we know about Joe Kent – the top US counterterrorism official who has resigned over Trump’s Iran war,” Sky News, 3-17-26.  For example, “The First Big Administration Defection Over Iran,” Atlantic, 3-17-26.  I’ve circled back to this post on 3-19 to include the only relevant piece I’ve seen so far, and it does not include any information regarding Kent’s claim regarding Israel.

“Gulf States Want the U.S. to Cripple Iran’s Regime Before Ending the War,” WSJ, 3-17-26.  In short, they want the head to be cut off the snake.  That is a quote that goes back to 2010 when King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia communicated this to the U.S. about Iran.

Significant in that Mossad assets not the key factor, but everyday people who want the Regime to fall.  “Israeli official says tip from Tehran residents helped enable Larijani strike,” Iran International, 3-17-26.

“Iran Launches Missile Attack on Tel Aviv in Retaliation for Latest Killings,” NYT, 3-17-26.  “Iranian state media confirmed the killings of Ali Larijani, who had served as Iran’s de facto leader.”

After Iran produced so many drones targeting Ukraine, now Ukraine is helping in the Middle East against Iran.  “Ukraine says has deployed 200 air defense experts to Mideast amid Iran war,” Iran International, 3-17-26.

“’Fall of Iranian regime real possibility,’ assessment in Israel and US ‘strengthening’,” i24, 3-17-26.

“Day 17 of Middle East conflict — Trump criticizes nations not committing to assist with Hormuz strait crisis,” CNN, 3-17-26.

“Gulf States Want the U.S. to Cripple Iran’s Regime Before Ending the War,” WSJ, 3-17-26.

“Iran’s Mojtaba Khamenei survived Israeli-US strike by minutes – report,” I24, 3-16-26.  “The report says the new Iranian leader stepped outside moments before the attack that struck the supreme leader’s compound in Tehran. … This is “according to leaked audio obtained by The Telegraph. The recording reportedly captures remarks by Mazaher Hosseini, head of protocol for the office of former Iranian leader Ali Khamenei. Hosseini addressed senior clerics and commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps during a meeting on March 12 in Tehran’s Qolhak neighborhood. The audio, which the newspaper said it independently verified.”

Romania is near the limit of Iran’s missile range.  Iran would also have to shoot across Turkey, raising NATO alarms and possible shootdown from Patriot batteries near Incirlik AFB.  And Romania is in NATO, triggering a decision by NATO whether to fire back at Iran.  “Iran warns Romania against allowing US to use bases for operations,” Iran International, 3-16-26.

Checkpoints, apartment searches, menacing recorded phone calls.  “Iran taking steps to prevent anti-establishment protests, Tehran residents tell BBC,” BBC, 3-16-26.

“UN report says Iran crushed protests with force, arrests and digital curbs,” Iran International, 3-16-26.

“Iran hits key UAE oil port and Dubai airport,” BBC, 3-16-26.  “Iran has launched over 1,900 missiles and drones at the UAE.

“Saudi Arabia Says It Intercepted Nearly 100 Drones in 24 Hours,” WSJ, 3-16-26.  “Saudi Arabia’s forces have intercepted 98 drones in the last 24 hours, the largest single-day wave of attacks since the U.S.-led war on Iran began. Most of the attacks were concentrated in the eastern region where the majority of the kingdom’s oil is produced, according to statements by the defense ministry. Other drones were intercepted over the capital of Riyadh.”

“Arab states urge US not to stop short in war on Iran,” Iran International, 3-16-26.

“Iran’s Northern Neighbors Are Facing Fallout From the War, Too,” Carnegie, 3-16-26.

“Iran has not asked for ceasefire and sees no reason for talks with US, Iranian minister says,” BBC, 3-15-26.

“Trump’s Call for Countries to Help Secure Strait Yields No Immediate Promises,” WSJ, 3-15-26.  We need some George Washingtons, just like the protesters do also.

“Israel Says Michigan Synagogue Attacker’s Brother Was a Hezbollah Commander,” NYT, 3-15-26.

“12 arrested at Al-Quds Day rally, counterprotest in London, say police,” BBC, 3-15-26.

“Cheap drones transform global battlefield,” Axios, 3-15-26.

“Iran says Russia and China providing ‘military cooperation’,” Politico, 3-15-26.

“Iran war: What is happening on day 15 of US-Israel attacks?,” Al Jazeera, 3-14-26.

The threats to their family, etc. are real.  “Iran pressuring women footballers who defected in Australia to return,” Iran International, 3-14-26.

“Iranians are ‘hesitant’ to rise up against regime, an Israeli official tells i24NEWS,” i24-3-14-26.  “Sources say it is no coincidence that every statement by Netanyahu and Katz includes a call for the Iranian people to prepare to act and emphasizes their role in determining the regime’s fate.”

“Five US refuelling planes struck by Iran strikes at Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base:  Report,” Times of India, 3-14-26.  The WSJ carried the story I believe first, and said four had minor damage and one would need repairs.  We will see if The Statesman retracts or corrects their story.  See “Iran strikes widen: 5 US refuelling planes destroyed in Saudi Arabia, US embassy radar hit in Iraq,” Statesman, 3-14-26.  I don’t usually display news from The Statesman, this factually incorrect headline is one reason why.

“Day 15 of Middle East conflict — Trump urges countries to send warships to help secure Strait of Hormuz,” CNN, 3-14-26.

“U.S. Tells Citizens to Leave Iraq After Second Attack on Embassy,” NYT, 3-14-26.

“6 killed in U.S. refueling plane crash; Iran’s new supreme leader ‘likely disfigured,’ Hegseth says,” NBC, 3-14-26.