Iran Nation or Cause

“Live Updates: Israel and Iran Trade Strikes in Increasingly Deadly Attacks,” NYT, 6-15-25.

“Maps and Photos: Israel’s Strikes and Iran’s Missile Retaliation,” NYT, 6-15-25.  This article is helpful in two ways.  First, it gives about as good a look as any for the public of where the fighting (air, missile, drone) is.  Second, this article (its headline) is a reminder that the NYT and the media in general do not portray the real story.  The story is not that Israel attacks, then Iran counterattacks.  That makes the story sound like this all started with Israel.  Instead, the headline AND the story’s text itself do not communicate Iran’s drive for nukes, its animosity toward Israel, the earlier failed attempts to stop the nuclear program including the Obama agreement, and now the passing of the two month deadline from Pres. Trump.  Israel had no choice.  The world including Europe and the UN were not going to stop the nuclear program.  Nor does this article give credit to Israel for being the only country in the world to stop such a deadly program not once (Iraq 1981), or twice (Syria 2007), but now three times (Iran 2025).

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, told the UN Security Council that “the above-ground part of the pilot fuel enrichment plant, where Iran was producing uranium enr Will Israel send commandoes into the nuclear sites, which are undoubtedly booby trapped, to blow up the facilities from within and with air assistance?iched up to 60% U-235, has been destroyed”.  But Israel has not attacked some other portions of the program.  “Satellite imagery reveals damage to key Iran nuclear sites,” BBC, 6-15-25.

Some varying thoughts garnered from listening to various media.  First, per the NYT, the ISI planned to fire about 1,000 ballistics but damage from the IDF’s preemptive strikes on missile bases resulted in less than 100 being fired.  Another thought—Will Israel try to kill the Ayatollah?  Also, i24 is showing the pictures of mass exodus/traffic jams as persons leave Iran—that is a vote of no confidence in the Iranian government.  Here’s another thought—Israel is targeting the nuclear program and the military officers of the Regime.  Iran is targeting of civilians in Tel Aviv–that is called war crimes.  The only persons killed in Israel have been civilians as of June 15.  And there have been Palestinians killed by Iran’s missiles.  They do not seem to care, nor the Houthis, even if their indiscriminate fire hits other countries.  Last thought for now–The action by Israel against Iran is arguably the biggest change in the Middle East since the 1967 War.  And it may be shorter than six days.

I see a NYT op-ed now by Bret Stephens, he is correct, and mirrors my above comments from this morning.  “Israel Had the Courage to Do What Needed to Be Done,” NYT, 6-13-25.

Back to the question above, is Israel going after Khamenei?  According to this article/NYT, No.  “Israel’s Attack in Iran Echoes Its Strategy Against Hezbollah,” NYT, 6-15-25.  But after the success against Nasrallah, I predict Yes.

“Iranian media reported that Tehran had warned the U.S., the U.K. and France that it would strike their military bases and naval vessels if they chose to defend Israel against its retaliatory strikes.”  See “Starmer confirms military buildup in Middle East as Europe urges restraint,” Politico, 6-15-25.

I was wrong on this question, seeing this article from three hours ago.  But imagine the embarrassment of the Supreme Leader, who has used every name in the book against the United States, its presidents, and Donald Trump.  And now Pres. Trump has spared him.  “Trump vetoed Israeli plan to kill Iran’s supreme leader, US officials say,” Reuters, 6-15-25.

“A quick deal now that would give up enrichment would be seen as a surrender, said Vali Nasr, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies who served in the State Department during the Obama administration. That could make the Iranian government more vulnerable at home. “They won’t give up enrichment, not this easily,” he said. “They’re not going to surrender.””  So, why not give them sanctions relief to save face?  The article doesn’t explore this.  See “Diplomacy With Iran Is Damaged, Not Dead,” NYT, 6-15-25.

So where is the Grand Ayatollah?  “Khamenei and his family hiding in bunker north of Tehran, sources say,” Iran International, 6-15-25.  “Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was moved to an underground bunker in Lavizan in northeastern Tehran hours after Israel began its attacks on Tehran early Friday, two informed sources inside Iran told Iran International. All members of Khamenei’s family including his son Mojtaba are with him, the sources said. … The diplomatic source added that Israel could have eliminated Khamenei on the first night of the operation, but the Israeli government chose to keep him alive to give him a final chance to decide on completely dismantling the Islamic Republic’s uranium enrichment program. … With the start of Israel’s airstrikes, that opportunity has been offered once again — this time for him to realistically assess Israel’s military capability and order the dismantling of the enrichment program, the sources said.”

Yes, people are fleeing Tehran.  Traffic was already bad, now it is hardly moving.  “Massive Israeli air raids engulf Tehran: Intelligence ministry hit, bazaar shut,” Iran International, 6-15-25.

Iran and Hamas are, not surprisingly, following the same demand—the IDF attacks must stop first.  But neither will give up its “right” to enrich uranium (Iran) or the hostages (Hamas).  “Iran turns to Qatar, Oman in bid to halt Israeli strikes, U.S. presses for nuclear concessions,” I24, 6-15-25.

We were waiting for this.  “Reports of ‘massive blast,’ 2.5 magnitude earthquake in vicinity of Iran’s Fordow nuclear plant,” i24, 6-15-25.  An earthquake?  No.  BTW, Fordow is just a half hour drive from Qom, Iran’s Shia spiritual center.  That is a message to the world, and now this is a message to the ayatollah-driven radical autocracy.

“350 missiles fired from Iran and 24 casualties since the start of Rising Lion | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 6-15-25.

“Brain behind Iran’s nuclear detonation technology killed in Israeli strike,” Iran International, 6-15-25.  Nuclear explosion triggers have no role in peaceful nuclear energy programs.

It is unclear how the Leader is doing this since no one is wearing beepers/pagers and he is holed up in his bunker.  Via smoke signal?  (too soon).  See “Inside Khamenei’s war cabinet: how Iran guides its contest with Israel,” Iran International, 6-15-25.  As much as Iran Intl’ reporting has been accurate worldwide the last couple of years, this article doesn’t actually say how the cabinet is operating.

“Trump vetoed Israeli plan to kill Iran’s supreme leader, US officials say,” Reuters, 6-15-25.

The toll of the Regime appears to be catching up with it; not able to put up 100 missiles.  “Iranian response: less than 100 missiles were launched at Israel overnight,” i24, 6-14-25.  Two waves from Iranian territory, mainly aiming for Tel Aviv.

“Two casualties, widespread damage from Iranian rockets | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 6-14-25.

There is another reason, the disruption of losing commanders and for the Iranian representatives not knowing what the negotiating position should be.  “Iran: dialogue with U.S. now “meaningless” after Israeli strikes,” i24, 6-14-25.  BTW, if you wonder why i24, I’m still looking at all news sources, but i24 is one of the very best at this precise moment.  Iranian news is certainly unhelpful in knowing what is happening.  And this article has a section at the end showing how the Regime’s poor decisions over 40 plus years have come home to roost.  “U.S. President Donald Trump weighed in with a sharply worded post on social media. “I gave the Iranians one last chance for a deal. Now everyone is dead, and it will only get worse,” he wrote, warning that further attacks could escalate dramatically unless Tehran agrees to a nuclear deal. Trump criticized Iran’s leadership for failing to secure an agreement: “No matter how hard they tried, they just couldn’t close the deal. Israel knows how to use its weapons.” Still, he left open the possibility of a deal, cautioning that if one is not reached, “there will be nothing left of the Iranian empire.” The flare-up comes after months of stalled nuclear talks, with Iran insisting on the right to enrich uranium domestically, while the U.S. has sought alternative frameworks involving international oversight — proposals repeatedly rejected by Tehran.”  The two Supreme Leaders have repeatedly missed their chances to join the modern and normal world.

“Iran threatens to target U.S. bases in the Middle East,” i24, 6-14-25.

“On IDF’s chart of eliminated Iranian security leaders, Qaani listed as still alive,” i24, 6-14-25.  Apparently the Quds Force leader is not yet dead.

Amazing that Iran folded so quickly.  “Israeli air force achieved freedom of operation in Tehran’s airspace, IDF says,” Axios, 6-14-25.

Fordow.  “Israel’s mission hinges on destroying Iran’s hardest nuclear target,” Axios, 6-14-25.  Israel has attacked the surface but not the deep underground.  Yet.  I predict special forces to blow it up from within, assisted by air.

“Israel urges U.S. to join war with Iran to eliminate nuclear program,” Axios, 6-14-25.  No, the U.S. will not participate in bombing Fordow.  But it will certainly allow Israel to finish the job.  And the U.S. will help defend Israel from Iran’s missiles.

Today will be a long news day.  The actions by Israel overnight are a significant response for Iran’s drive for nuclear weapons and threats, but can also been seen as the result of its radical political terroristic version of Shia Islam that has plagued its neighbors and well beyond.  Note that military chief of staff Bagheri and IRGC head Salami and key Ayatollah adviser Shamkhani were killed by the Israel air attacks and covert operations.  Together those men did not equal the impact of the 2020 killing of Quds Force head Soleimani by then Pres. Trump, but that action began the domino seen in yesterday’s strikes of pushing back against the Regime.  See “Israel hits Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership in unprecedented strikes,” CNN, 6-13-25.

“Iran launched more than 100 drones toward Israel, says IDF spokesperson | LIVE BLOG,” I24, 6-13-25.  All were shot down–in other words, as of June 13, despite Iran’s trying to respond directly, it can’t.  Thus, it is highly likely it will attack U.S. military targets in the Gulf and soft targets in the next days and weeks.

The IDF’s second defensive attacks (the first were primarily against the nuclear program) were to limit the possible shooting of 100s of ballistic missiles toward Israel.  “IDF ‘concludes’ another round of strikes on Iran’s missile arsenal | LIVE BLOG,” I24, 6-13-25.

When reading these stories, a distinct possibility communicated is that a number of Iranian air force generals gathered (several who were reported in the news today as killed) in the middle of the night, they were then trapped in the room, and could have then learned what was about to happen to them.  Remember, at the start of an attack the commanders are often the first to be eliminated.  “Report: Israel Tricked Top Iranian Military Commanders To Gather. A Missile Was Waiting For Them,” Yeshiva World News, 6-13-25; “Report: Israel successfully deceived top Iran air force commanders into convening ahead of strike,” Times of Israel, 6-13-25.

“The Middle East is tense as Israel’s attacks sink hopes for de-escalation,” NYT, 6-13-25.  Let me remind this reporter and the NYT of an important fact—it is hard to escalate if you don’t have leaders.  Ask Hezbollah.  Ask Hamas.  Ask Iran in the time period after Soleimani was killed—he was the Ayatollah’s right hand man (no excuse for the pun).

More thoughts—All Israeli pilots made it back, in both waves.  All Iranian drones shot down.  Iran’s generals were tricked into coming to a meeting (reminds us of the Hezbollah pager attacks).  Air attacks months ago took Iran’s AA offline.  Natanz was; we will find out if Fordow was attacked.  But the Grand Ayatollah is in a corner, and knows nothing other than violence.  Watch for Iran to possibly try to close the Hormuz Straight, which the U.S. will not allow.  In fact, watch for the Supreme Leader to send every ballistic missile he can toward Israel’s cities and bases and again U.S. regional bases.  There are no signs yet of Israel attacks to two major nuclear sites, the underground enrichment plant at Fordow and the Isfahan nuclear fuel site, but that is probably coming.  Citing an earlier story, “Report: Israel successfully deceived top Iran air force commanders into convening ahead of strike,” Times of Israel, 6-13-25.

“An extensive Israeli intelligence effort underpinned the Iran strikes,” NYT, 6-13-25.  Way to go Mossad.  Here are other relevant events that inform us.  “Israel assassinated Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, with a remote-controlled gun in 2020, and assisted when the United States killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s top security and intelligence commander, in a drone strike the same year. … In 2024, “Israel was able to kill Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, by planting an explosive device in a Tehran guesthouse run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel also deeply penetrated Iran’s most powerful Iranian proxy, Hezbollah, leading to a spate of attacks in 2024. In September, it targeted members of the militia in elaborate, coordinated attacks using pagers and walkie-talkies, killing dozens of people and injuring thousands. It was also able to infiltrate the group’s communications, culminating in airstrikes the same month that killed the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah.”

The map reminds us of the widespread and buried “peaceful” nuclear program.   “Israel’s strikes targeted some of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities,” NYT, 6-13-25.

I asked earlier today if the Quds chief Qaani was eliminated.  It is now being reported he was killed at a Western Iranian military facility.  “Report: Head of Iran’s elite Quds Force killed in Israeli strike,” Times of Israel, 6-13-25.

I24 is reporting on t.v. that Putin has phoned Netanyahu and condemned the attack on Iran.  He must be thinking his supply of drones could be cut.  I-24, 6-13-25.

In case you’re wondering, and amid reports on I-24 t.v. of AA firing near the Supreme Leader’s compound in central Tehran, who takes Ali Khamenei place if he is killed?  Per Article 111 of Iran’s constitution, the Supreme Leader’s successor is chosen by the Assembly of Experts, which consists of more than 80 ayatollahs at present.  In the interim, the country is administered by a provisional leadership council, of Iran’s president, chief justice, and a member of the Guardian Council.  Be aware that pressure from the IRGC and the economic powers it has could distort the selection process.  Regardless, he is alive at present.  See “Iranian Supreme Leader’s 2-word threat to Israel as he vows revenge,” MSN, 6-13-25.

“Iran launches ballistic missiles at Israel, as Supreme Leader vows to ‘inflict heavy blows’,” BBC, 6-13-25.  This started about an hour ago, after 9 p.m. Tel Aviv time.

“Israel’s overnight strike on Iran in maps and images,” BBC, 6-13-25.

“The Real Threat From Iran,” Foreign Affairs, 6-13-25.

The fuel stockpile.  “Much of Iran’s Nuclear Program Remains After Israel’s Strikes. At Least for Now,” NYT, 6-13-25.  “The first phase of the attack did not hit the most likely repository of Iran’s near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel.” … ““The fact that Israel did not bomb a known uranium production facility at Isfahan,” said Jon Wolfsthal of the Federation of American Scientists, which tracks Iran’s nuclear progress closely, “suggests either that Bibi was worried the bombing might cause a radiological incident or that they actually think this will lead Iran to surrender its uranium stocks voluntarily.” The concern about a “radiological incident” is a real one. Bombing the fuel storage site in its current form would not trigger a nuclear explosion. But it could release the fuel into the environment, creating a radiation hazard, essentially turning the Isfahan plant into a dirty bomb.”

The blog author has been traveling for some time, and is now catching up on entries; today we begin posting the news from a couple of days ago that the Regime’s religion of peace has again violated its own pledge.  Then we post about the attacks by Israel and then Iran.  First, “Iran to significantly increase uranium enrichment in wake of IAEA resolution,” I24, 6-12-25.

“Iran Is Breaking Rules on Nuclear Activity, U.N. Watchdog Says,” NYT, 6-12-25.  “The International Atomic Energy Agency declared on Thursday that Iran was not complying with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations, the first time the U.N. watchdog has passed a resolution against the country in 20 years. … The agency also said Iran consistently failed to provide information about undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple locations. Iran had reacted angrily to the prospect of the vote and threatened to leave the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which came into force in 1970.”  (Think about that logic—Iran says it is not trying to make weapons, the IAEA says it looks likely, so Iran responds by saying it will—Iran does not have clean hands in this multi-year drama of its own making).

See “Iran doubles down as US signals Israel could strike despite nuclear talks,” Al Jazeera, 6-12-25.  I believe this is the last news story both Salami and Bagheri are quoted in before being killed.  I wonder where IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani is?  He would have been a target.

“Israeli forces struck the main enrichment plant at Natanz, targeted nuclear scientists involved in Iran’s bomb program, and hit key ballistic missile facilities.” … “Iran has produced enough enriched uranium for nine atomic bombs.” … “Eighty years ago, Jews were victims of a Holocaust perpetrated by the Nazi regime. Today, the Jewish state refuses to be the victim of a nuclear Holocaust perpetrated by the Iranian regime,” PM Netanyahu announced.  “Netanyahu: Israel strikes Iran to stop imminent nuclear threat,” I24, 6-12-25.

“Senior Iranian military, nuclear officials killed in Israeli strikes,” I24, 6-12-25.  Let me remind everyone that Pres. Trump’s two-month deadline passed (with Iran going through five negotiation talks with the U.S.) before Israel attacked.  See the April 11 entry in this blog.  The U.S. set a 60-day deadline for Iran to make progress on talks over its nuclear program or face potential military retaliation–that two month deadline ended May 19.  Also, this same news story makes the point “The Israeli Foreign Ministry confirmed that Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar is in ongoing talks with international counterparts following the cabinet’s decision to “eliminate the threat of Iranian annihilation. … The unprecedented series of strikes — part of Israel’s newly launched “Strength of a Lion” operation — mark a major escalation as fears grow over Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program and its stated intent to acquire nuclear weapons.”  But I do not write that Trump felt he had to make progress somewhere—tariffs, Ukraine, Gaza, Iran—simply to save face.  It is because Iran is amassing enough material to now make an estimated 10 nuclear weapons.  The inability to get Hamas to release the hostages and inability to get Putin to stop killing civilians was not part of the calculus—the Supreme Leader and the Revolution is.  The U.S. gave a green light.   President Trump would have come to realize the negotiations with Iran were a cover for further HEU (highly enriched uranium).

Notice the ending of this article—that modernity can’t be stopped by the Ayatollah.  “‘Dog Walking Is a Clear Crime’: Iran’s Latest Morality Push,” NYT, 6-9-25.

Bad news for the Regime.  It’s proxy Hezbollah can no longer keep these types of meetings from occurring.  “Lebanon president to visit Jordan Tuesday,” Jordan News Agency, 6-9-25.

“Tehran says it would reduce cooperation with IAEA if anti-Iran resolution passed by agency,” AFP, 6-8-25.

“Think tank: IAEA found Iran conducted, covered up implosion tests key to building nuclear weapon in 2003,” Times of Israel, 6-8-25.

This is all we know, the headline, really don’t know more as Iran hasn’t displayed anything.  “Iran says it obtained sensitive Israeli nuclear documents,” Reuters, 6-7-25.

Also in the Regime paranoid or fake news category, “Iranian TV Alleges Massive Spy Operation Targeting Israeli Nuclear Sites,” RFE/RL, 6-7-25.

“Treasury Sanctions Iranian Network Laundering Billions for Regime Through Shadow Banking Scheme,” U.S. Department of Treasury, 6-6-25.

“Iran orders thousands of tons of ballistic missile ingredients from China – WSJ,” JPost, 6-6-25.  “The shipments, which are expected to reach Iran in the coming months, include ammonium perchlorate, a key component in the solid propellant used for ballistic missiles. … The shipment of ammonium perchlorate is part of Iran’s broader efforts to rebuild its so-called “Axis of Resistance” network. … The new order for ammonium perchlorate … could supply Iran with enough material to produce approximately 800 missiles, one official estimated.”

“Could US and Israel Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program?  Yep, Here’s How,” Bloomberg, 6-5-25.

“Scoop: Gulf leaders told Trump they oppose strikes on Iran’s nuclear program,” Axios, 5-29-25.  “Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed and Qatari Emir Tamim al-Thani all told Trump they worry that if Iran’s nuclear sites are attacked, their countries will be targeted for Iranian retaliation. All three host U.S. military bases.”

“Iran May Hold the Key to Trump’s Nuclear Revolution,” Newsweek, 5-29-25.  The Leader won’t allow it, a U.S.-Iran bilateral nuclear relationship, because Iran is literally founded on “anti-America.”  But the article does represent out of the box thinking.  “One proposal reportedly floated by Iranian officials has been that of a regional consortium, a unique arrangement that would see Iran enter into a nuclear fuel sharing group with other Middle Eastern nations, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.”

“HISTORIC! First Freight Train From China Wheels Into Iran, Flying In The Face Of American Sanctions,” Eurasian Times, 5-29-25.  “The cargo train arrived at Iran’s largest Aprin dry port, near Tehran, from Xi’an province in China. The rail route between the two countries would cut down delivery time from 30-40 days by sea to just 15 days by land. The Iran-China freight train will travel from Iran to China, passing through Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.”

“Iran’s Christian Heritage,” The American Conservative, 5-29-25.

“Magnitude 5.5 earthquake strikes southern Iran region, EMSC says,” Reuters, 5-29-25.