Iran Nation or Cause

“Prominent Iranian figure threatens to destroy Qatar,” Iran International, 12-14-24.  “A former member of Iran’s nuclear negotiating team and a frequent voice on international media defending Tehran’s policies has said Qatar should be bombed if Iran’s nuclear facilities are targeted.  Mohammad Marandi, speaking about a possible US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, tweeted, “Slight problem. The US Al Udeid air base in is tiny Qatar. In case of aggression, the natural gas facilities and infrastructure in Qatar will be totally destroyed. Hence, there will be no natural gas from Doha. Hence, there will be no Qatar. Things won’t end there either…”

“Could Iran’s new hijab law bring down Khamenei?,” JPost, 12-14-24.  Not by itself.

This is old news now.  Would have been great if the media would have highlighted this dark-themed supply route regularly to the world.  “Hezbollah Loses Supply Route Through Syria, in Blow to It and Iran,” NYT, 12-14-24.

“Iran sentences an Iranian-American journalist to 10 years in prison,” 12-14-24.

“Iran postpones implementation of new hijab law following backlash,” Iran International, 12-14-24.  Surprising.  But the Regime is feeling the heat from its people.  “The Islamic Republic has officially postponed the implementation of the controversial hijab law that imposes severe penalties on women and girls who defy veiling requirements, following huge backlash from the public and the international community. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in a letter to the parliament on Saturday, requested that the process of implementing the Hijab and Chastity law be halted so that an amended bill can be submitted to the parliament by the government, said a member of the Parliament’s presiding board. The ‘Law on Protecting the Family through the Promotion of the Culture of Chastity and Hijab,’ comprising 74 articles, was set to take effect yesterday. It imposes severe penalties on women and girls who defy veiling requirements, including exorbitant fines, prison terms, flogging, and even death penalty.”

“Israel’s (not-so) secret plan to prevent a nuclear Iran and create a new Middle East,” Times of Israel, 12-13-23.

Iran can’t hide Syria’s loss.  “The Syrian Upheaval Has Iranian Leaders Reeling, Too,” NYT, 12-13-24.  “The brash public debate is nothing short of extraordinary, given that for years Iranian leaders portrayed their support for Syria and allied militant groups fighting Israel as a nonnegotiable principle of the Islamic revolution and critical for national security.  …  Mr. Khamenei appeared outraged at the open criticism.  The comments, he said, were “a crime” because they were sowing fear among the public. Within hours, Iran’s judiciary announced a criminal investigation into a list of prominent figures and news outlets that have been leading the criticism. The list included Mr. Falahatpisheh, the former lawmaker, who revealed that Syrian debt to Iran amounted to about $30 billion.  For over 40 years, Syria served, in effect, as Iran’s central command base in the region. Its access to territory, shipping ports and airports was so unimpeded that a senior military commander once described Syria as a province of Iran.  Iran controlled military bases, missile factories, tunnels and warehouses that served the supply chain for its network of militants. From Syria, Iran funneled weapons, cash and logistical support to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and militants in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Iraq.”  It would have been nice for the NYT to feature this information regularly.  You can’t be afraid of the Leader or of truth.

Not a good blue ribbon.  “US names Iran top state sponsor of terrorism for 39th year in a row,” Iran International, 12-13-24.

“Iran’s IRGC races to offload unsold oil in China before Trump takes office,” Iran International, 12-13-24.

“Iran: Detained Activists Denied Medical Care,” HRW, 12-13-24.

“Hostage diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The case of Europeans detained in Iran,” IFRI, 12-13-24.

“Iran-linked crew used custom ‘cyberweapon’ in US critical infrastructure attacks,” The Register, 12-13-24.

“Amid rolling blackouts in Iran, some blame power-intensive cryptocurrency mining,” AP, Times of Israel, 12-13-24.  “The US Treasury and Israel have targeted bitcoin wallets that they’ve alleged are affiliated with operations run by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard to finance allied terror groups in Mideast war zones.”  So, the people run out of electricity, and the IRGC spread the Revolution.

“Satellite Pics Reveal Iran’s New Aircraft Carrier-Like Drone Ship,” NDTV, 12-13-24.

“Fakeland Empires: How Iran and Qatar shape minds worldwide,” I24, 12-12-24.

“IDF sees chance for strikes on Iran nuke sites after knocking out Syria air defenses,” Times of Israel, 12-12-24.

Par for the course.  “Iran blames fall of Assad on Israel, US, ‘neighboring country’,” I24, 12-11-24.

Some of the answers to the questions I asked earlier about Russia spiriting Assad away.  “Russia pressured Assad to flee, helping him disappear without trace,” I24, 12-11-24.

UK, France, Germany—enough is enough.  “Europeans tell UN ready to ‘snap back’ Iran sanctions if needed,” Reuters, 12-11-24.

The Economist doesn’t get it, asking “Will the weakened regime reform, or race for the bomb?”  Instead, since 1979, Iran only backs down when forced.  Otherwise, they will continue to race for power, and for years that has been aiming to get a bomb.  “The fall of Bashar al-Assad is a blow to Iran,” Economist, 12-11-24.

“Iran’s Very Bad Year,” NYT, 12-9-24.

The land bridge is gone.  “Assad regime’s collapse is a devastating defeat for Iran,” NBC, 12-9-24.

“Iran Crisis Update, December 9,” ISW, 12-9-24.

“Iran Protests: Nationwide Demonstrations on December 9 Highlight Economic Struggles and Neglect,” NCRI, 12-9-22.

It is this type of sudden ending, with fleeing, disaster, possible death, that keeps some despots from giving up power.  This is part of what has gone through the Supreme Leader’s mind every day since even before the Revolution, certainly since he lost control of his right arm.  Now he has another right arm to worry about, his main ally and friend Assad is gone and Syria is suddenly seemingly gone.   See “Syria latest: Syrians celebrate Bashar Assad’s fall as his whereabouts remain unknown,” AP, 12-8-24.  Syria’s collapse certainly weakens Iran’s control more than probably anything since 1979.

It is not clear yet how Assad left his plane near Homs and arrived at the Khmeimim Air Base, SE of Latakia.  There was roughly a half day of uncertainty among the public and news outlets worldwide where he was.  Nor is it clear yet why he abandoned his suitor Iran and opted for Russia, but it is probably because of the long-standing deep relationship including that of his father in doing Russia’s bidding in the Middle East, pre-dating Iran’s sway over Syria.  Russia had more to lose by his talking or his death.  But Russia knew his exit plans.  See “Russia says Assad has fled country as plane disappears from radar,” Telegraph, 12-8-24.  And see “Assad arrives in Moscow, is granted asylum by Russia,” Fox, 12-8-24.  Finally, Russia may be cutting some loses, at least for the present, by partially withdrawing from Syria, from the airbase and their Tartus port.  Assad apparently was on a transport to Moscow.  See “Syrian rebels reportedly capture Jableh, city near Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base,” Meduza, 12-8-24.

“Khamenei Loses Everything,” The Atlantic, 12-8-24.

Syria’s retreat, despite Iran demands, continues.  It looks like Damascus and Tehran have a fight on their hands from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, or HTS.  “Syrian rebels reach Damascus suburbs as government denies Assad’s departure rumors,” AP, KTXS, 12-7-24.  The leader of HTS is  Ahmad al-Shara, better known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, or Julani.

What will Iran do?  This is a real crossroads.  The biggest state partner in the Shia Crescent has apparently fallen.  “Reuters reported on Sunday morning local time that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has left Damascus to an unknown location. … Videos on social media showed Syrian soldiers leaving their positions in Damascus, taking off their uniform and changing to civilian clothes. Damascus International Airport is also under rebel control.”  See “Assad regime collapses as Syrian rebels enter Damascus,” Axios, 12-7-24.

“Iran’s nuclear leap ‘extremely serious, has no civilian justification’,” I-24, 12-7-24.

Retreat!  “The evacuations, both by air and across land borders, were ordered from the Iranian embassy in Damascus and several Revolutionary Guard bases in Syria.”  See “Iran begins to evacuate commanders as forces abandon Assad,” Yahoo, 12-7-24.  Here’s a great quote, but anonymous.  ““He [Assad] has proven that no matter how much support he receives, he cannot push back even a few terrorists from his territory.  He’s just a moron who couldn’t build a proper government in 10 years, and his forces surrendered without firing a single bullet,” a member of the IRGC-affiliate Basij paramilitary force in Tehran told The Telegraph.”  But he’s a moron Tehran continued to use.

“Iran evacuates personnel in Syria as rebels further advance – NYT,” JPost, 12-7-24.   “Iran began evacuating its Quds Force personnel and military officials from Syria into neighboring countries.”

“Iran, Hezbollah aim to bolster Assad as rebels bear down on Homs,” Reuters, 12-6-24.

“Iran has ‘dramatically’ increased enrichment to near bomb grade -IAEA,” JPost, 12-6-24.  “If Iran continues on its expected uranium enrichment rate, it will be able to produce 12 nuclear bombs.”

“Syrian rebels seize Iraqi crossing, choking Iranian lifeline to Hezbollah,” Iran International, 12-6-24.  “US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an alliance of Syrian Kurdish fighters, seized the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor and a nearby Iraqi-Syrian border crossing used by Iran to arm Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Reuters reported on Friday. The Al-Bukamal crossing fell under SDF control on Friday, Reuters said citing two Syrian army sources. The border crossing in Deir ez-Zor was a key channel used by the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to transport weapons to Lebanon through Syria. “The IRGC established a land connection between the Resistance, linking Iran to Iraq, Iraq to Syria, and Syria to Lebanon. Today, you can get in a car in Tehran and disembark in the southern suburbs of Beirut,” former IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani had said in a 2019 speech. … Losing the Iraqi crossing could represent a huge blow to the regional hegemony Iran built up in the wake of the US invasion of Iraq and effectively split a so-called Shi’ite crescent spanning from the Iranian plateau to the Mediterranean.  …  Local activists said the Syrian army and Tehran-backed forces had pulled out of Deir el-Zor before the SDF advance.  Deir ez-Zor is the third city to slip from President Bashar al-Assad’s grasp in a week. Syrian opposition forces earlier captured the cities of Aleppo and Hama and are moving closer to capturing Homs, potentially threatening the capital Damascus and Assad’s rule. … Iran plans to send weapons and personnel to Syria, a senior Iranian official said on Friday. [contrary to the NYT,] However, Russia doesn’t have a plan to save Assad and doesn’t see one emerging as long as the Syrian president’s army continues to abandon its positions, Bloomberg reported Friday citing a person close to the Kremlin. Russia has launched a number of airstrikes against Syrian rebels over the past week; however, it has informed the Assad government that any intervention will be limited as it has other priorities at this time, Sky News Arabia reported Friday.”

“Science in Iran: A catalyst for corruption,” Index on Censorship, 12-6-24.

“Iran conducts successful space launch, raising concerns over nuclear and missile programs,” AP, 12-6-24.

“Iran’s growing influence in the Black Sea region: Consequences and Western responses,” Middle East Institute, 12-6-24.

“Iran Activates Centrifuges After IAEA Rebuke,” Arms Control Association, 12-5-24.

How many?  This pictures looks like only a few hundred.  The article says 400 men.  Not enough.  “Iran-backed groups move through Iraq towards Syria to support regime,” MEMO, 12-5-24.

“Russia-Iran-Assad ‘axis of the vulnerable’ cracking in Syria,” Asia Times, 12-5-24.

How to survive?  Why not act as a regular country?  “Iran’s strategic limbo,” IISS, 12-4-24.

The NYTimes has to be careful it is not helping make reality instead of reporting the news.  I am always leery of news saying something has been secret for months but now we are going to tell you.  Instead, I prefer to not think about this as a choice of Assad’s, but his being forced by Iran to do its bidding.  It is not his staying in power.  It is Iran telling Syria what to do, on pain of ….   And this is what the NYT article does say finally at the end.  BTW, the article also helps the reader know the mess that present Syria is—“Syria is now territorially divided among Mr. al-Assad, Islamist militants, U.S.-backed Kurdish groups and Turkish-backed rebels.”  See “With Assad Challenged, a Push to Cut Syria’s Ties to Iran Grows More Unlikely,” NYT, 12-4-24.

“Iran’s jailed Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi allowed to leave prison for 21 days after surgery,” CNN, 12-4-24.

“According to the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran, there have been 798 exe­cu­tions in Iran as of December 1, 2024. With at least 310 exe­cu­tions in the past two months, ​“the Islamic Republic has begun the most exten­sive wave of exe­cu­tions in Iranian pris­ons in the last two decades.”  See “Worldwide Monthly Roundup: China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Vietnam,” DPIC, 12-4-24.

“Iran’s deputy FM warns of possible withdrawal from NPT in case of snapback activation,” Press TV, 12-4-24.

“Iran sees record divorce rates as couples blame economic hardships,” Iran International, 12-4-24.

“Nobel committee calls for ‘permanent’ release of Iran’s Mohammadi,” AFP, Times of Israel, 12-4-24.

Iran is No. 1 in terror incidents, and No. 2 in disinformation.  “Meta: Russia tops disinformation ops, followed by Iran and China,” SC World, 12-4-24.