So just after writing that Iran hasn’t rescinded its assassination order against Trump (it has a practice of never pulling these back), look what shows up in the news. “U.S. received Iran’s written assurance it was not actively trying to assassinate Trump,” CBS, 11-15-24. The U.S. received written assurance from Iran before the presidential election that its leadership was not actively trying to assassinate President-elect Donald Trump, CBS News confirmed, according to a source with direct knowledge of the correspondence. The message arrived after the White House in September affirmed that killing a former U.S. president or former U.S. official would be seen by the Biden administration as an act of war.” Here are my thoughts—the document, subject to secrecy rules, will years from now be available through the Archives for reading by the public. First, if we could all see the document, we would realize this is the first time the Supreme Leader has made such a declaration, so he is most likely quite worried about himself, and the regime. Second, notice the wording from CBS—that Iran’s “leadership was not actively trying to assassinate President-elect Donald Trump”—the statement from Iran doesn’t rescind the fatwa. It says “not actively.” That means they are not really trying hard, or reserve the right to go after him. So, what the USG has received is nothing.
“Even Iran is attempting to play nice with Donald Trump,” Politico, 11-15-24. “Is Iran so scared of Donald Trump that it’s starting (or pretending) to play nice? That’s the question on the minds of U.S. national security officials and analysts as Tehran braces for another four years of Trump.” But, remember, the assassination order still stands.
What will it take for Iran to change its stripes and decide to act as a normal country? Part of the answer may be defanging it. “Israel destroyed equipment Iran would need to develop nuclear weapon, officials say,” Axios, 11-15-24. “The Israeli strike on Iran’s Parchin military complex in late October will make it much harder for Iran to develop a nuclear explosive device if it chooses to do so, two Israeli officials told Axios. Why it matters: The sophisticated equipment that was destroyed is needed to design and test plastic explosives that surround uranium in a nuclear device and are needed to detonate it. It dates back to before Iran ended its military nuclear program in 2003. … The Taleghan 2 facility in the Parchin military complex which was destroyed in the strike was used prior to 2003 for testing explosives needed to set off a nuclear device, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.”
Truth be told, the ISI is primary to the Lebanese government. “Lebanon’s prime minister asks Iran to help secure a cease-fire in Israel-Hezbollah war,” PBS, 11-15-24.
“Tehran faces deal or downfall under Trump, Lévy says,” Iran International, 11-15-24.
“Iran Update,” Institute for the Study of War, 11-15-24. “US and Israeli intelligence began detecting suspicious research activity, including computer modeling, metallurgy, and explosive research, at the Parchin Military Complex earlier in 2024.”
