Iran Nation or Cause

“Iran is increasingly desperate, retired US general says,” Politico, 10-6-24.  And the former CENTCOM commander Frank McKenzie “said he found it entirely believable that Iran’s leaders, driven by “desperation” as they seek to stay in power, could be targeting former President Donald Trump as he seeks to regain the presidency. “They view the election of President Trump as a direct threat to that regime preservation,” he said.”

“Iran’s Quds Force leader missing after Israeli strike in Beirut: Reports,” India Today, 10-6-24.  “According to reports, the Israeli airstrikes in Beirut’s southern suburb Dahiyeh were targeted at Hashem Safieddine, the successor to slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. Esmail Qaani was also reportedly present in Dahiyeh at the time.”  This begs the question—Why in the world would the Leader allow Quds Force leader Qaani to be in a place where Israel would attack?  That is very poor military judgment.  See also “Iran’s Quds Force chief out of contact since Beirut strikes, Iranian officials say,” Reuters, 10-6-24.

“Iran’s Khamenei decorates commander for Israel attack,” AFP, VOA, 10-6-24.

“Murder for hire: Inside Iran’s proxy war with Israel in the West,” USA Today, 10-6-24.  “Since 2020, there have been at least 33 assassination or abduction attempts in the West in which local or Israeli authorities allege an Iran link, Reuters found in an examination of court documents and public statements by government officials.”

Almost makes your head spin—then you realize this is Iran, tying two (it has many) of its important proxies together, in a confused but real effort to release Sinwar and figure out how to replace Nasrallah.  “Iran open to cease-fire efforts in Lebanon — if Israel stops bombing Gaza,” Politico, 10-5-24.  BTW, this story carries the rare example of an exception within an exception to the international law humanitarian standard for not attacking non-military targets—the IDF struck Hezbollah operatives at a command center inside a mosque in southern Lebanon’s Bint Jbeil, within the Martyr Salah Ghandour Hospital compound.  What’s next for Hamas or Hezbollah to violate under the laws of war?  Maybe a Red Crescent office within a school within a mosque within a hospital?

“Benny Gantz: What the World Needs to Understand About Iran,” NYT, 10-5-24.  “Iran’s religious leadership is devoted to exporting its fundamentalist ideology, driven by the pursuit of hegemony and captivated by the thought of its opponents’ violent subjugation. I ask that other nations not make the same mistake we made and underestimate this component of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s calculus.”

He really is fortunate that Israel didn’t time his appearance while he was outside.  The Supreme Leader also said nothing about most of his ballistic missiles being shot down, nor that they were destroyed by Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, United States, United Kingdom, and France.  “In Rare Appearance, Khamenei Says Iran ‘Won’t Back Down’ As Israel Strikes In Beirut,” Iran International, 10-4-24.

But give the Leader some credit for his approx. 300 missile attacks on civilians and military sites, about 30 missiles got through.  “Iranian missiles hit Israeli military sites, visuals show,” WPost, 10-4-24.

What about China, and its cover for Iran?  This slows Iran from changing its behavior.  “China Buys Nearly All of Iran’s Oil Exports, but Has Options if Israel Attacks,” NYT, 10-4-24.

This would be a great move, and to pressure Iran to change its actions long-term—stop supporting proxies!  Real governments don’t use proxies!  Normal countries have allies, which means the other country is a sovereign state and not under the control of another.  “Scoop: U.S. wants to use Hezbollah’s weakness to elect new Lebanese president,” Axios, 10-4-24.

This limited success (no serious damage at the base nor planes lost, but over 30 missiles landed) will embolden Iran.  And BTW, the anniversary of Oct. 7 is coming.  “Iranian Missiles Overwhelmed Israeli Defenses at Some Sites, Analysts Say,” WSJ, 10-4-24.  “Unlike April 13, when Iran fired a large number of slower cruise missiles and drones, Tuesday’s barrage was made up exclusively of some 180 much faster ballistic missiles, one of the largest such strikes in the history of warfare. Analysts say that most of these projectiles were Iran’s most modern ballistic missiles, the Fattah-1 and Kheibar Shekan. “The faster the missile, the harder it is to intercept it, that’s simple physics,” said Ulrich Kühn, head of research for arms control at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg, Germany. “It’s certainly much harder to defend against ballistic missiles, and even more so if there is a bulk of them coming in on a certain target, because then you have the ability to overwhelm the antimissile defenses—which is exactly what happened in Israel.” Satellite images of a target on Tuesday—the Nevatim air base in southern Israel, home to its F-35 jet fighters—show that as many as 32 Iranian missiles managed to land within the base’s perimeter, according to analysis by professor Jeffrey Lewis, at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey, Calif.”

Will this change Iran’s behavior?  In other words, if SA and Israel normalize, will Iran deradicalize?  No.  Iran’s creation in 1979 and its constitution and laws and then military set-up and bureaucracy, etc., etc. resulting in a governmental political culture is to spread the Shia revolution, and spread it in a violent, intimidating way.  Although the masses disagree, they don’t hold the bicycle chains and the guns.  The Supreme Leader has no reason to change even if the Crown Prince of SArabia sees what is the better path forward for his (Sunni Muslim) country and the region.  See “Kushner has held talks with MBS on US-Saudi diplomacy, Israel normalization,” Times of Israel, 10-4-24.  The other big news in this story is, implicitly, that NSA Jake Sullivan has okayed these talks between Jared Kushner and MBS.

“Iran’s supreme leader warns it ‘won’t back down’ in Israel fight,” USA Today, 10-4-24.

“Iranian supreme leader praises missile attack on Israel, saying Iran will do it again if necessary,” AP, 10-4-24.

Iran has blocked a Lebanese president (and some semblance of democracy) for too long.  “Scoop: U.S. wants to use Hezbollah’s weakness to elect new Lebanese president,” Axios, 10-4-24.

“Clutching a rifle, Khamenei delivers rare public sermon in Arabic,” I24, 10-4-24.

“Missile attack on Israel lays bare deep divisions among Iranians,” BBC, 10-3-24.

“Iran warns of ‘unconventional response’ in case of new Israeli attack,” Al Jazeera, 10-3-24.

“Map shows possible Israeli targets in Iran,” CNN, 10-3-24.

“Why Israel Is Worried About Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions,” WSJ, 10-3-24.

“Biden says he opposes potential Israeli strike against Iran nuclear program,” Axios, 10-2-24.  Notice that “Iran said its retaliation is now complete, unless Israel attacks.”  But wait, Iran attacked with the 200 ballistics first.  Israel had warned them, but Iran still attacked.  Why can’t Israel retaliate for an unprovoked attack?  Notice also that the U.S. has been lagging—Wouldn’t it be a good idea to extricate Iran’s nuclear program?

“How Israel’s air defenses knocked down Iran’s missiles,” Axios, 10-2-24.

“IRGC commander who died with Nasrallah carried warning message from Khamenei to Hezbollah chief,” I-24, 10-2-24.

Almost 200 ballistics.  No other country in the world would do what Iran has done.  “Iran launches ballistic missile attack against Israel,” Politico, 10-1-24.

“Iran carries out a massive missile attack on Israel, expanding the Middle East conflict,” NPR, 10-1-24.

Bret Stephens is exactly right—go after the nuclear program.  “We Absolutely Need to Escalate in Iran,” NYT, 10-1-24.

Quote of the Day.  “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday told Iranians that regime change was looming. “When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think — everything will be different,” Netanyahu said in a video statement addressed to Iranians, in which he lambasted the “fanatic theocrats” who rule the country. “Our two ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace. Our two countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace,” he added. … “There are tens of millions of decent and good people with thousands of years of history behind them, and a brilliant future ahead of them. Don’t let a small group of fanatic theocrats crush your hopes and dreams. You deserve better. Your children deserve better. The entire world deserves better,” Netanyahu said. “The people of Iran should know, Israel stands with you. May we together know a future of prosperity and peace,” he said.”  See “Netanyahu: Iran regime change will come a ‘lot sooner than people think’,” Politico, 9-30-24.  So, will act as a normal country in response?  Or as a revolutionary country?

John Sawers, former MI6 chief and UK ambassador to the UN, has his finger on one thing here, that Israel is finally standing up to terror in a way that we all should.  True, the PM and the IDF and Mossad sense that they have the technical ability to act now, especially due to their missile shield providing much cover.  But Sawers misses in his IR balance of power analysis, and what we should realize regarding Iran’s decisions, is that this is not just a sterile laboratory of a world in which balances and rebalances occur.  The point here is that Iran, Syria, and others have used terror as a tool of statecraft, and long-term that is immoral and cannot win.  Eventually someone says enough is enough and they fight back.  Other states, unwilling to fight with personnel, or perhaps only contribute financial or other support, are here quietly approving of what Israel is doing to fight back against the Regime because they know that since 1979 Iran has needed someone(s) to hold back its revolutionary push by the two Ayatollahs.  See “Middle East’s power scales tip as Israel senses Iran’s weakness,” John Sawers, Financial Times, 9-30-24.  Michael Oren is making this same point, that the U.S. has the opportunity to remake the world, to push back on Iran.  (will any reformers in Iran see this chance to make a better future for their country?)  See “Michael Oren: This is an amazing opportunity to change the Middle East,” Fox, 9-30-24.

“Iran’s president seeks ‘regional’ response to Israel,” Politico, 9-29-24.  Kudos to the NYT for getting this right—Hamas attacked first.  Hezbollah attacked first.  Israel had to act in self defense to both.  See this quote paragraph in the story:  “Hezbollah, for decades a thorn in Israel’s side, began launching rockets at Israel after the lethal incursion last Oct. 7 by Hamas from Gaza into Israel. That Oct. 7 incursion led also to an Israeli invasion of Gaza that has so far resulted in the death of tens of thousands of residents of Gaza, as well as widespread destruction.”

He’s indecisive.  He doesn’t want to be blamed for mistakes.  He has a long history of “triangulation” in which he figures out who to blame and who to side with–this is key to staying in power.  And he’s afraid he will die (and there is no absolute knowledge that one goes to Paradise in Islamic thinking).  “Iran’s leadership said deeply shaken, divided over response to Nasrallah’s killing,” Times of Israel, 9-29-24.  Read the below, widely agreed to across the Middle East and in the West, and then ask yourself if Iran controls Hezbollah.  “Two IRGC officials, including a strategist who has been at meetings discussing the response to Nasrallah’s killing, said Iran’s first concern was to help Hezbollah recover from the series of devastating blows Israel has dealt to its leadership and infrastructure. That means appointing a new leader, putting in place a new command structure, and installing a new communications network. After that Hezbollah would be able to plan its retaliation against Israel. Iran will send a senior member of its elite Quds Forces to Beirut via Syria to advise Hezbollah, the two Guards members said.”

Iran has to decide whether it will be a normal nation-state or a revolutionary entity.  “Iran’s leadership said deeply shaken, divided over response to Nasrallah’s killing,” Times of Israel, 9-29-24.

Notice that it was a spy not with Lebanese citizenship.  “’Iran spy tipped off Israel about Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s location before airstrike,” The Week, 9-29-24.

“Iranian mole helped Israel kill Hezbollah leader – Le Parisien,” Iran International, 9-29-24.  But the 80 tons of bombs are not mentioned.

Notice that it was a spy not with Lebanese citizenship.  “’Iran spy tipped off Israel about Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s location before airstrike,” The Week, 9-29-24.

“Iranian mole helped Israel kill Hezbollah leader – Le Parisien,” Iran International, 9-29-24.  But the 80 tons of timed bombs are not mentioned.

“Iran Is Losing. That May Matter More Than Israel’s Mistakes,” NYT, 9-29-24.  While French writes that military success (whether Iran’s or Israel’s) guarantees being the captain of a country’s fate, his piece seems to indicate that our future is not in our control, nor are countries’ futures the result of ideology, economic decisions, good governance, etc.  Iran’s losing is not surprising based on why it was created and how it has been run.

I wonder how the death was confirmed.  Regardless, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, the Shia Islamist militant group and political party in Lebanon, and which is legally declared a terror organization by most Western nations, is eliminated by Israel.  Hezbollah’s reach is so much greater than Hamas, with terror attacks and presence in scores of countries and on every continent (except Antarctica!).  We will see how Nasrallah’s death hampers Iran, and will watch to see if this persuades the Supreme Leader of Iran to change his behavior.  See “Hezbollah confirms its leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike,” AP, 9-28-84.  Also, “Iran announced Saturday that a prominent general in its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard sanctioned by the U.S. died in the same airstrike. Abbas Nilforushan, 58, who the U.S. identified as the deputy commander for operations in the Guard, was killed Friday, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported.”  At a minimum, Hezbollah leaders are no longer using pagers and cell phones, and now they won’t be meeting together.  BTW, the killing of Nasrallah will interrupt international drug flows.  His death by Israel is the biggest blow to Iran and the IRGC and the Quds Force and international terrorism since the killing of Gen Qasem Soleimani in 2020 by Pres. Trump.

A weak statement.  “Iran’s Khamenei: ‘Zionist criminals too weak to succeed again the Resistance’,” I24, 9-28-24.  “The Supreme leader’s first statement since Nasrallah’s assassination by Israel delivers little besides familiar diatribes. “The killing of defenseless civilians in Lebanon has once again revealed the savage nature of the rabid Zionists to everyone. On the other hand, it has proven how shortsighted and insane the policies of the leaders of the occupying regime are.” … “The Zionist criminals need to know that they are far too weak to be able to inflict any significant damage on the solid structure of Lebanon’s Hezbollah. All the Resistance forces in the region stand with and support Hezbollah. The Resistance forces will determine the fate of this region with the honorable Hezbollah leading the way.”  So, Khamenei’s “important statement” says nothing about Nasrallah.  I suspect he doesn’t know what to say.  This does raise the chances, in his mind most likely, that striking back is the only option.

I allow other voices here also, including one’s that allow violence to not be countered, or countered fully.  “Neither Iran nor Israel will win in this fight,” Chatham House, 9-28-24.

Will Iran decide to take action directly?  Now Israel is targeting Nasrallah.  “Israel conducts massive strike targeting Hezbollah HQ in Beirut,” Axios, 9-27-24.  “Israel conducted an air strike on Friday targeting Hezbollah’s central headquarters in Beirut in an apparent attempt to kill the group’s leadership. Why it matters: This was the biggest Israeli strike in Beirut since the 2006 war in Lebanon, and an Israeli source said the primary target was Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The strike also reportedly hit residential buildings, though there has been no word yet on civilian casualties. Driving the news: Israeli officials say senior Hezbollah officials were at the headquarters at the time of the attack. There has been no official response as yet from Hezbollah on the attack or on Nasrallah’s status. Hezbollah-affiliated al-Manar Television reported that four buildings in southern Beirut were hit in the attack. Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Adm. Daniel Hagari described the attack as a “precise strike on the central HQ of Hezbollah which was intentionally built under residential buildings in Beirut in order to use them as human shields.””

Nasrallah isn’t answering his phone.  Oh wait, he hasn’t been using a cell for some time anyway.  “Iran’s Supreme Leader Holds Emergency Meeting After Israel Attacks Lebanon,” NYT, 9-27-24.  “But the initial assessment of Israeli intelligence agencies was that Mr. Nasrallah had been killed, officials said. … It was the first time that Mr. Khamenei had convened the Supreme National Council, the group that responds to national security threats, domestic and international and shapes foreign and national policy, for an emergency meeting since July 31, when Israel assassinated a top Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. … As Iran assesses how to respond to Israel, it faces a familiar problem: how to establish deterrence without encouraging all-out war. Analysts said that targeting Mr. Nasrallah escalated the standoff between Israel and Iran and its proxy militias to a new, more dangerous level. Until now, Iran has refrained from letting Israel drag it into an open war, analysts said. That posture is likely to continue. “Iran’s position seems to be that if Israel wants war, it’ll get it at the time of Iran’s choosing,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. Mr. Vaez said that Israel had decapitated Iran’s regional allies in the past, and instead of eliminating the threat, it has fed radicalization, enabling Iranian recruitment to continue.”  Well Dr. Vaez, Israel’s actions in the present are not restrained.

Street celebrations in Syria and Lebanon and Iran.  Here are some.  “Israeli media cites ‘growing confidence’ among officials that Nasrallah was killed in Beirut strike | LIVE BLOG,” I24, 9-27-24.

“For Iran, shielding nuclear programme overrides commitment to Hezbollah,” Arab Weekly, 9-27-24.

“Israel’s attempt to kill Nasrallah throws down the gauntlet to Iran,” Telegraph, 9-27-24.

“Hezbollah is pounded by Israel, but key ally Iran is reluctant to intervene,” WPost, 9-27-24.  Where is the government of Lebanon in all of this?  You’d think that with Nasrallah eliminated from exercising control of the bureaucracy of government.

Notably, the article says that after the U.S. election that normalization with Saudi Arabia will progress.  “Mossad has stopped over 50 Iranian-backed terror attacks on Jews since Oct. 7 – sources,” JPost, 9-27-24.